Winter Forecast Non Professional

[Tom]

Eighth year doing this call, this year I am overly optimistic heading into winter.  Don't let me know Mother Nature.  (Not a pro just a serious hobbyist) 

 

WINTER 2018-2019 FORECAST

 

 

The criteria I look at doing this forecast will consist of the following.  The below categories are long term well predicted teleconnections and seasonal categories I look at.

*ENSO – Weak to Moderate Modiki

*PDO – Slightly Positive

*Solar Activity – Low to very low Solar Minimum this winter or next

*QBO – Easterly becoming Westerly late Fall early Winter

*Analogs - 1977-78, 2003-2004, 2009-2010, 2014-2015

 

 

Then there are some teleconnections that vary greatly throughout the winter.

 

 

*NAO – Long term trends point towards Negative

*AO – If SSWE occurs can go Negative otherwise looking neutral to slightly positive.

 

 

So that all being said here is my winter call for 2018-19, keep in mind long term calls are a hypothetical forecast based on past seasons taken into account that can look similar to the upcoming.

 

 

REST OF NOVEMBER

 

 

November 1ST-12Th temps look to be slightly above normal with above normal precipitation state wide.

Nov 13^th-22^nd Temps below normal with precipitation slightly above normal with some snow in the Northwest part of state in higher elevations.

November 23^rd – Nov 30^th  Temps near normal (wild swings) with several well above normal temps and a couple days well below normal with a Nor’ester coming up the coast if during the below normal day or two widespread snow, will be nowcasting, however with the warm ocean temps high likely hood of a major storm at end of month.

 

 

DECEMBER FORECAST

 

 

December 1^st – 10^th Temps turning colder each day, with dry conditions.

December 11^th – 20^th Temps slightly below normal with widespread rain storm ending as snow.

 

 

December 21^st – 31^st Temps crash as winter sets in.  Several chances of snow and if the NAO can go negative this week could be a major east coast snowstorm

 

 

Overall December Temps normal to slightly below normal with normal snowfall to slightly above normal statewide.

 

 

JANUARY FORECAST

 

 

I am not expecting a “Thaw” therefore this monthly forecast is pretty straight forward with Southern NJ getting more snow than Northern NJ due to suppression from the cold air.

Temps much below normal

Snow much above normal south of I78 and normal north of I78

 

 

FEBRUARY FORECAST

 

 

Another month of below normal temps and much above precip as the El Nino takes full effect.

This is the month that will seem to never end when it comes to snow statewide including the coast. 

 

 

MARCH FORECAST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 The First half of month will be storm like the saying comes in like a lion out like a lamb and very likely this will be an understatement this time.  Multiple chances at severe Nor’esters again before winter ends, track will determine snow vs rain.

 

 

OVERALL WINTER FORECAST

 

 

Expect colder than normal temperatures -2 to -4 degrees

Much above normal snowfall 150-175% of normal (If you don’t know your normal shoot me a message I can look it up) Typically south of 195 normal is 20-25, north of 195 south of 78 25-30 and north of 78 greater than 35 with much higher in the higher elevations >85”

 

 

Any questions leave in comments and during my drinking nights before the snow starts I’ll respond unless it’s a dumb questions like how much snow on Main Street in your town. 

 

 

CHEERS!!!!!

[RedSky]

^ Winter of Yore 

 

[The Iceman]

Hey Nice write up and I hope you are right. Calling for below normal temps over the entire winter though is pretty ballsy in this day and age. Does anyone know the last time we had seasonal departures o f-2 to -4? Even in our blockbuster years the last decade, I'm pretty sure none were more than a degree below normal overall(correct me if I am wrong). I think we agree it is going to be active pattern, but I am concerned with temps at the moment especially with how fall has unfolded thus far and the effects that climate change are having on our seasonal patterns.  Just curious what trends are you looking at that are pointing towards a neg nao. It's been my experience that NAO forecasting is pretty fickle at best. Even right now, I'm not super confident in a neg nao beyond transitional especially with the trends of the last decade being that most of our winters have been +NAO. Despite that though, the Pac has worked out for us a bunch in the last decade. One could argue that we are due for a neg nao winter though and that we should be heading into a long term shift of -NAO winters unlike years past.

[Daniel Boone]

Good luck on that weak to moderate moDIke. Lol.