Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,599
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest


PrinceFrederickWx
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Awesome!!! I am perfectly positioned for the KU we get in a little under a week and a half. You all won't know what hit you. 

You and me both, except I'm looking for a March KU which screws Richmond. Let's make it happen! (sorry Richmond peeps, but not really)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Cobalt said:

You and me both, except I'm looking for a March KU which screws Richmond. Let's make it happen! (sorry Richmond peeps, but not really)

Think I would much rather have my KU then yours. Yours would be a foot/foot and a half through Balt/DC whereas mine would be upwards of 3 feet. I know which I would prefer. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, RodneyS said:

I believe I could theoretically win with 4.4" at BWI, assuming DCA gets shut out and RIC gets no more than 0.2".  However, if BWI gets 4.4" or more, isn't it very likely that IAD will get at least 3.6"?  And if that happens, Bob Chill will close me out. So I have to thread the needle in a very unlikely manner.  As our President might tweet: SAD! 

Oh I forgot to respond to this- you're right, I was 0.1" off for what you need to win at BWI (that's what I get for doing it in my head instead of running it through the spreadsheet!)

For example, a system that drops 4.5" at BWI, 3" at IAD, 1" at DCA and nothing at RIC would make you a winner.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Oh I forgot to respond to this- you're right, I was 0.1" off for what you need to win at BWI (that's what I get for doing it in my head instead of running it through the spreadsheet!)

For example, a system that drops 4.5" at BWI, 3" at IAD, 1" at DCA and nothing at RIC would make you a winner.

I think the DCA and RIC parts are plausible.  The BWI and IAD parts -- not so much, particularly regarding the greater amount of snow that has to fall at BWI in a moderate area-wide event (or events).  However, at this point in the snow season, almost everyone who is not mathematically eliminated can cling to a thin strand of hope, so that's what I'll do.  :) 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

We're just going into the fourth quarter, and Belichek is whispering stuff in Tom Brady's ear, and he's smiling that smile. 

Current leaders, enjoy what little time you have left. 

Be quiet Roger.  You don't know nothing about nothing. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Have updated the files back on page five that give the overview against RIC and DCA actuals. Working on the list of snowfall required, as we have the full list now from Prince Fred wx, I am checking it against that, so far down to 15th place and it all matches up. Will go faster now that I am past most of the adding on type errors, down to the thundering herd of reducing errors. But will we find that distant watering hole? Coach Belichek says yes, the secondary looks tired and this play should work Tom ... and Tom says yeah, I can do this. 

(on three, KU wide right cut to the left sidelines). 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Have updated the files back on page five that give the overview against RIC and DCA actuals. Working on the list of snowfall required, as we have the full list now from Prince Fred wx, I am checking it against that, so far down to 15th place and it all matches up. Will go faster now that I am past most of the adding on type errors, down to the thundering herd of reducing errors. But will we find that distant watering hole? Coach Belichek says yes, the secondary looks tired and this play should work Tom ... and Tom says yeah, I can do this. 

(on three, KU wide right cut to the left sidelines). 

Yeah I think from now on, due to popular demand, I'm just gonna post the entire list each time. Let me know if you find any differences between your list and mine- I am appointing you Special Counsel to overlook any possible malfeasance in this contest committed by its president. :-)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Yeah I think from now on, due to popular demand, I'm just gonna post the entire list each time. Let me know if you find any differences between your list and mine- I am appointing you Special Counsel to overlook any possible malfeasance in this contest committed by its president. :-)

Just finished, Mr President, no foreign interference found anywhere. My list is back on January 14th, since you've posted the entire list, I won't bother moving it to this page but it has pretty colors to look at. 

By the way, LYH added 3.2" and is at 19.6" now. SBY was still missing as of last check, did it snow over there? They were at 5.0" before this event. 

All kidding aside, just one big storm and this whole exercise becomes academic.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just added 12" at BWI-IAD, 8" at DCA and 4" at RIC, which is the over-under on what I expect this pattern to produce now to end of contest.

That gives the following top six: 

1. Shadowzone ___ 6.1"

2. BTRwxT-G _____8.2"

2. Prestige ww ___ 8.2"

4. NorthBaltiZen __ 8.4"

5. Mappy ________ 8.6"

6. wxwatch007 ___ 9.9"

 

The maximum that could conceivably be added might be 20" at BWI-IAD, 15" at DCA and 8" at RIC. That gives this top six finish:

1. OnceinaLifetime2009 ____ 12.0"

2. southMDwatcher ________12.1"

3. budice2002 ____________ 13.0"

4. Roger Smith ___________ 13.1"

5. Jakkelwx ______________ 13.6"

6. High Stakes ____________13.8"

 

Half way from the over-under to the extreme, it's Cobalt in the lead but mostly the same leaders as above. So there's a group around 30th to 40th place now who could do quite well with perhaps one big storm or two moderate ones and a few minor top ups. 

Let's say there's just one more event and it goes south, so I add 2" to the northern three and 12" to RIC, then this is the outcome:

1. stormPC _____________ 14.2"

2. Grothar in Herndon ____ 16.3"

3. Prince Frederick wx ____ 16.5"

4. weather53 ___________ 20.7"

5. Chris78 ______________21.0"

6. RodneyS _____________22.3"

__________________________________________________

How about an oddball event that nails IAD and is skimpy at BWI? 

Adding 2" at BWI, 4" at DCA, 8" at IAD and 2" at RIC gives this outcome:

1. NorthArlington101 ____ 12.1"

2. winterwxluvr ________ 12.8"

3. wxwatcher007 _______ 13.7"

4. millvillewx ___________14.0"

5. Yoda _______________14.4"

6. gopper _____________ 14.7"

______________________________________________________

 

 

 

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...