Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

[EastCoast NPZ]

14 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Alright, we have 59 people playing. I have everyone's updates in the spreadsheet including @Cobalt latest newest final FINAL 5th update. 

Not surprisingly @EastCoast NPZ has the biggest bear forecast, so he is listed as the current leader to open the official start.

On the pole and already opening a 3 car-length lead out of turn 1.  This is a lap-the-field type race.  Easy money.  

[PrinceFrederickWx]

On 11/15/2018 at 7:13 PM, George BM said:

UPDATE:

BWI: 1.7"

DCA: 1.4"

IAD: 3.0"

RIC: 42.7"
 

TB (SBY): 50.2"

You know, there is probably a greater-than-zero chance of this winning now. If this guy wins I will never hold this contest again. 

[Roger Smith]

Just like there's a greater than zero chance that I will be the next president of the United States. A lot of things have to happen, none of them very probable. By the way, I don't want to be, it seems to require explaining all your actions from age 16 to 30 and there is a zero chance of that happening. 

[George BM]

3 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

You know, there is probably a greater-than-zero chance of this winning now. If this guy wins I will never hold this contest again. 

So believe it or not I actually DIDNOT forget about changing my predictions. I just thought that I would be smart and pull an extreme WxWatcher007 and post my totals at 11:58pm that night which I did..... or rather, tried to do.

My "plan" ended up being the biggliest flop blowing up in my face like Tsar Bomba. I had even posted this statement above my real predictions to start lol: 

" @PrinceFrederickWx you thought you were going to have to live with my troll forecast being in your database didn't you." My totals were actually towards the higher-end of all the other posts on here.

But then at 11:58:30 pm est on November 30, 2018 when I attempted to post my totals it wouldn't let me post them because the thread had already locked . 

Kids the lesson here is don't wait until the last minute to do your homework or your big project that is worth 90% of your grade.

Now if I somehow won with these joke totals it would be very cool and gratifying... but would also be at the expense of this forum's sanity... heck probably the expense of this forum, period... and thousands of puppies... and bunnies... total and complete carnage. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

7 minutes ago, George BM said:

So believe it or not I actually DIDNOT forget about changing my predictions. I just thought that I would be smart and pull an extreme WxWatcher007 and post my totals at 11:58pm that night which I did..... or rather, tried to do.

My "plan" ended up being the biggliest flop blowing up in my face like Tsar Bomba. I had even posted this statement above my real predictions to start lol: 

" @PrinceFrederickWx you thought you were going to have to live with my troll forecast being in your database didn't you." My totals were actually towards the higher-end of all the other posts on here.

But then at 11:58:30 pm est on November 30, 2018 when I attempted to post my totals it wouldn't let me post them because the thread had already locked . 

Kids the lesson here is don't wait until the last minute to do your homework or your big project that is worth 90% of your grade.

Now if I somehow won with these joke totals it would be very cool and gratifying... but would also be at the expense of this forum's sanity... heck probably the expense of this forum, period... and thousands of puppies... and bunnies... total and complete carnage. 

LMAO that’s hilarious!! 

[showmethesnow]

On 12/4/2018 at 8:27 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Alright, we have 59 people playing. I have everyone's updates in the spreadsheet including @Cobalt latest newest final FINAL 5th update. 

Not surprisingly @EastCoast NPZ has the biggest bear forecast, so he is listed as the current leader to open the official start.

 

On 12/4/2018 at 8:45 PM, EastCoast NPZ said:

On the pole and already opening a 3 car-length lead out of turn 1.  This is a lap-the-field type race.  Easy money.  

And by lap two....

 

@EastCoast NPZcrashes in spectacular fashion taking out fellow team members of team 'No Snow for you'.

Teams 'Meh Snow' and 'Big snow for you and you and you' were left unscathed and continued with the race.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

On 11/7/2018 at 5:04 PM, C.A.P.E. said:

For all of you who think Richmond will do better than Salisbury-

Richmond is a wretched, horrific snow hole. A snow lover's nightmare. Now Salisbury isn't a good snow town by any stretch, but it will beat Richmond.

LOL

I can't wait to update this contest tomorrow. @George BM is about to make history.

[yoda]

I think most of us are going to bust low on RIC

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

LOL

I can't wait to update this contest tomorrow. @George BM is about to make history.

Its snowing in Salisbury!

The winter is young.  

[Roger Smith]

Hey, I thought it might be fun to have an interactive table of forecasts where I can move the "actual" portion through the table close to the leading forecasts. This is how it looks now with RIC at 11.5" from this storm. The SBY or LYH tiebreakers will also appear in the table. I will set them at 5" total for season (each) for now then adjust when this storm is finished. Would expect LYH to be higher than SBY after today. (edit 10th -- LYH reporting 11.5", SBY 0.8" confirmed later edit). 

You'll see your forecast in its appropriate place with DCA snowfall used to position all entries regardless of amounts of other locations. Not sure why DCA for anchoring the table but if somebody wants to see it anchored by a different location, it would take a few edits. Tied forecasts at DCA appear in their chronological order of posting. Let me know if you spot any errors, I constructed this going backwards through the thread to catch later revisions first. 

The scale is somewhat exponential to cover the range of forecasts best. The higher forecasts are not as widely separated by spacing as most of the others.

Color coding is used for the five locations. Key: DCA, IAD, BWI, RIC, tie (SBY) tie* (LYH) __ 3 tiebreakers used LYH, they have the * with their numbers.

These station codes do not appear in the table, the numbers are your forecasts. The tiebreakers are all orange but the few that are LYH have the asterisks. 

Numbers are placed in the table as close to correct positions as possible, when two or more station forecasts are similar. Sometimes they will not be exactly aligned when close together.

Then reality intrudes on this with bold versions of the above. For now, only one tiebreak amount is showing, until I can separate actual amounts for SBY and LYH. (have now shown both of them).

A date is shown for the posting of the last forecast, in each case that was in November 2018. In some cases there may have been a later edit, I am going by posting dates in the thread but in only one case has the poster dated their edit, so not every date shown corresponds to a posting date (exceptions where shown by ^ and second number is original posting date of a later edited post). In one case (clskinsfan whose post was on the first, mentions an edit on the 20th), I went by a comment posted at a later date. (this is not important to the contest anyway, just FYI). The only other known to me edit date was my own forecast originally posted 1st, edited 26th. I expect there were other similar edits made but they won't appear in this table unless you want them to appear.

The consensus values in the table are median values, the 30th ranked out of 59. For consensus, with 55 selections of SBY, median is 28th ranked, and for the three selecting LYH, it is the middle of the three values. 

This table will be edited from time to time (for actual to date snowfalls), and perhaps moved forward in the thread or given a reference post. When or if we get past some of the lower clusters of numbers, we can move the snow to date into the heart of the table and perhaps increase the type size for readability. In any case, enjoy this addition! (some stats are compiled at bottom end of the table).

Note: this table is not being edited at later dates, an edited version appears later in the thread.

 

Forecaster _____Nov date __ 0" __ 2" __ 4" __ 6" __ 8" __10" __12"__14"__16"__18"_20"_22"_24"_26"_28"_30"_32"_34"_36".38".40"...45"...50"..60"..70"..80"

_ Snow to date __ 9 Dec _0.8_1.41.7 3.0_______ (11.5)*11.5

George BM ________ 15 _____ 1.41.7 3.0___________________________________________________________________________42.7___ 50.2

EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 __________________ 6.5_7.8_8.710.911.1

Bristow Wx _________ 1 ___________________ 6.7_7.4_8.7 ____ 12.6 13.8

supernovasky _______ 9 __________________________9.0__11.0 12.0___________ 19.020.0

leesburg 04 _________1 _______________________________11.0 12.0 ______ 17.0_____ 22.023.0

RodneyS __________ 21 ___________________________ 10.5 _13.3 13.9 __________ 20.3 __23.6

MN Transplant _____ 28 _________________5.4 __ 7.8 ___________ 14.2 ____ 17.8_19.6

Wonderdog ________ 9 ________________________________ 12.75 ____ 16.0 ____ 20.0 ________ 27.0 ____ 33.0

nw Baltimore wx ___ 10 _______________________ 8.0 _______ 13.0 ____16.0 _________ 22.0_ 25.0

Bob Chill __________ 27 ________________________________ 12.0_14.0_16.0 _______________ 26.0 _ 29.0

Weather53 _________21 ______________________________________14.7_16.516.8____21.2_22.1

Stormpc ___________26 ___________________________________________16.716.817.2_19.9_ 24.6

Gramax Refugee ____27 _______________________________________15.2_16.9 17.2 ________________ 29.5_32.0

Olafminesaw _______25 ________________________ 8.7_ 9.8 ____________ 17.3 __19.4 ____ 23.5

Prince Frederick Wx _ 1 ______________________________________ 14.3_17.117.7 __________24.5 _ 27.8

Gopper ___________ 15 ____________________________ 9.9________ 15.5 _ 17.7 __________________28.8 ___ 33.3

biodhokie __________ 8 ______________________________________ 14.5 ___17.8 18.1__21.3__________ 30.2

WinterWxLuvr ______ 8 _______________________________ 11.0 _ 13.0 _____18.0 _______ 23.0_________ 32.0

Thanatos_I_Am ____ 30 ___________ 3.2 _______ 7.5 _____________________ 18.3 ___________25.8 27.6

Grothar of Herndon _ 30 _______________________________________14.4 ____18.3 19.2 ______ 25.7 __ 29.1

Chris78 ____________ 1 ____________________________________12.4 14.9 ___ 18.4 ___________26.7_28.6

dmillz25 ____________1 _____________________________ 10.0 11.0 __________ 19.0 _________25.0 __ 29.0

LP08 ______________ 5 ______________________________________13.314.6 ___ 19.7 _____________________ 34.4_______ 42.6

MillvilleWx __________1 _________________________ 8.7 _____________15.0 _______21.1 _________27.4_29.5

North Balti Zen ______ 5 ______________________________________14.0 _____ 19.6_21.1 _________ 28.8 ________35.7

mattie g __________ 28 _____________________________10.4 _____13.9 __________ 21.1 ____________ 30.6 ___________38.7

WxWatcher007 _____30 _____________________________10.6 ___________16.4 ____ 21.1 _________ 28.9 ____32.5

Yoda _____________ 27 ________________________ 8.4___________ 14.1 ___________21.8 _________29.6 ___ 32.9

cae ______________ 30 ________________________________11.7_12.7 _____________ 21.8 _______27.6 ___ 31.3

WxUSAF ___________ 5 ____________________________________________16.6 ____21.1 22.7 _____________31.5 _ 35.2

 

___ Consensus ____ median ____________________________________Sby14.4 _17.0 ____ 22.7 _____Lyh 30.1*_30.6_ 35.0

 

NorthArlington101 ___ 1 __________________________ 9.1 ______________16.0 _________22.8 __25.7 _____ 32.2

T. August _________ 21 ___________________________________________________19.1__22.9 ____ 27.5_29.2 _______ 36.0

Prestige Worldwide __27 __________________________________12.4 ____15.8 __________ 23.0 ___________31.0 ____ 35.0

BTRwx'sThanksGiving_12 _________________________________12.0 _______17.0 __________ 24.0 _____________34.0 ___ 38.0

Shadowzone _______ 14 ___________________________________________ 16.8 ____ 20.3*__ 24.1 _________31.7 ____ 35.7

HighStakes _________ 6 _________________________________________________18.7 20.0 ___24.5 __________________ 37.4 _41.1

Sparky ____________ 2 ________________________________________ 14.015.0_____________ 25.0 ___________34.0 _____ 39.0

mappy ____________ 5 __________________________________________________ 19.0 _ 22.0_ 25.0 ________32.0 __ 35.0

OnceinaLifetime2009_28 _______________________________11.1 _________________19.9 _______ 26.7 __ 30.1 ________________44.5

Cobalt ____________30 __________________________________12.1 _______16.8 _______________ 26.9 ______ 33.2 _______39.4

weatherCCB _______ 16 ___________________________________________________19.5 __23.0 ____ 27.4 ______________________ 46.8_49.6

clskinsfan _________ 20 ^ 1 ______________________________________ 15.5 _ 18.5 ______________27.5 _____________ 36.5 37.5

psuhoffman ________ 1 ___________________________________________________19.0 20.0 _______ 28.0 _______________37.0 39.0

nj2va ____________ 1 __________________________________ 11.5 ____________ 18.9 _____________ 29.2 _____________________ 48.7 _______ 59.9

Roger Smith ______ 26 ^ 1 _________________________________________ 16.5 _______ 21.0 _______ 29.2 ___________42.5 43.8

snowgolfbro _______ 10 ________________________________________ 14.5 __ 18.0 _________________ 30.0 ____________________ 47.0 _52.0

ravensrule _________12 __________________________________________15.0_17.0 __________________ 30.0 ____________38.0_40.0

C. A. P. E. _________ 1 _____________________________________________________ 20.1 ___24.5 ______30.3 ______ 35.8_ 38.5

budice2002  _______ 14 ______________________________________________________________ 26.0  29.0 31.0 _____________ 42.0_46.0

southMDwatcher ___ 20 _________________________________11.4 ________________ 20.7 ______________ 31.1 ______________ 43.8_47.9

tplbge ___________ 16 ______________________________________________17.0 ___________________ 29.0 ____34.0 ______________49.0 _53.0

showmethesnow ___ 27 ______________________________________________17.0 _______ 24.0 _______________ 34.0 ______________ 50.0 _54.0

JakkelWx _________ 30 _________________________________________________________ 24.0 ____27.0 __________35.0 ___40.0_42.0

GATECH __________ 1 _______________________________________14.214.3 ___________________________________ 35.7 _______44.9_47.5

SnowLuvrDude _____30 ______________________________________________________21.7_ 24.2 ____________________ 37.1 ______ 48.6_52.4

wxdude64 ________ 13 ________________________________________________________________ 26.1 __30.1*__________ 38.4 ______________55.8 57.4

AFewUnivBelowN ___ 1 __________________________________________ n/a ______________________28.0 _______________ 40.0 _____________ 56.0 __________ 65.0

RIC Airport ________ 1 ________________________________________________________________________ 32.2 _________________46.0 __________ 57.8*_ 61.9 62.5

osfan24 ___________ 7 _____________________________________________________ 21.2 ______________ 31.3 _________________ 46.2 _____54.3_55.9

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Some stats of interest:

27 of 59 forecasts have this order of snowfalls from least to greatest _ (tiebreak) _ RIC _ DCA _ BWI _ IAD

___ RodneyS, MN Transplant, Bob Chill, Olafminesaw, Prince Frederick Wx, Gopper, Chris78, Millville Wx, North Balti Zen, mattie g, WxWatcher007, Yoda, cae, WxUSAF, North Arlington 101, Prestige Worldwide, BTRwx's Thanks Giving, High Stakes, Onceinalifetime2009, Cobalt, weather CCB, nj2va, snowgolfbro, southMDwatcher, showmethesnow, GATECH, osfan24.

 6 of 59 forecasts have this order of snowfalls _ (tiebreak) _ RIC _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI

___ Thanatos_I_Am, dmillz25, clskinsfan, psuhoffman, Roger Smith, tplbge

... in addition, one more is the same as the above with no tiebreaker __ AfewUnivbelowN 

11 of 59 forecasts have this order of snowfalls _ RIC _ (tiebreak) _ DCA _ BWI _ IAD

___ nw Baltimore wx, WinterWxLuvr, LP08, shadowzone* Sparky, mappy, ravensrule, budice2002, JakkelWx, SnowLuvrDude, wxdude64*

 1 of 59 forecasts have this order of snowfalls _ RIC _ (tiebreak) _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI __ C.A.P.E.

 

 2 forecasts go in the order of RIC _ DCA _ (tiebreak) _ IAD _ BWI __ supernovasky, RIC Airport*

 2 forecasts go in the order of DCA _ (tiebreak) _ RIC _ BWI _ IAD __ East coast NPZ, stormPC

 3 forecasts go in the order of (tiebreak) _ DCA _ RIC _ BWI _ IAD __ Gramax Refugee, Grothar of Herndon, Wonderdog

 1 forecast goes in the order of DCA _ (tiebreak) _ RIC _ IAD _ BWI __ Bristow Wx

 1 forecast goes in the order of DCA _ BWI _ IAD _ RIC _ (tiebreak) __ George BM

 1 forecast goes in the order of (tiebreak) _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC _ BWI __ T. August

 2 forecasts go in the order of RIC _ DCA _ (tiebreak) _ BWI _ IAD __ leesburg 04, Weather53

 1 forecast goes in the order of RIC _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ (tiebreak) __ biodhokie

* 3 forecasters who selected LYH as their tiebreakers

 

__________________________________________________________________

Leaving out the tiebreaker, the clusters are as follows:

RIC _ DCA _ BWI _ IAD ___ 40

RIC _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI ____11

DCA _ RIC _ BWI _ IAD ____ 5

DCA _ RIC _ IAD _ BWI ____ 1

DCA _ IAD _ RIC _ BWI ____ 1

DCA _ BWI _ IAD _ RIC ____ 1

___________________________________________________________________

RIC was therefore placed higher than DCA 8 times, higher than IAD 2 times and higher than BWI once.

DCA was never placed higher than IAD or BWI by any forecaster.

BWI was placed higher than DCA by 13 of 59 forecasters.

The tiebreaker when SBY was placed lowest by 36 of 55, LYH was not placed lowest by any of 3.

The tiebreaker when SBY was placed second lowest above only RIC by 12 of 55 and by two choosing LYH.

The tiebreaker when SBY was placed second lowest above only DCA by 3 of 55.

The tiebreaker when SBY was placed higher than both DCA and RIC by 2 of 55 and by one choosing LYH.

The tiebreaker when SBY was placed higher than all four contest locations by 2 of 55. 

____________________________________________________________________

 

No forecaster predicted the same amount of snow at any of their five locations (several were 0.1" different).

_____________________________________________________________________

The IAD to DCA ratio averaged close to 2:1 in the lower half of the forecasts and narrowed to about 1.5:1 in the heavier snowfall forecasts.

The smallest IAD to DCA ratio in the contest is 18.1:17.8 (about 1.016:1) from biodhokie. 

______________________________________________________________________

Hope you enjoy using this table to track the ever-mounting snow totals (in February, let's say).

 

[showmethesnow]

@Roger SmithThat will be interesting to keep track of this winter. Not sure I want to know how much time you invested in it though. Must have been a slow weekend.  

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Updated totals:

BWI: 1.7"

DCA: 1.4"

IAD: 3.0"

RIC: 11.5"

Somehow, amazingly, @EastCoast NPZ managed to hold on to his lead. @BristowWx and @George BM are a close second and third- after that, it's a huge gap to 4th place and below.

 

 

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Updated totals:

BWI: 1.7"

DCA: 1.4"

IAD: 3.0"

RIC: 11.5"

Somehow, amazingly, @EastCoast NPZ managed to hold on to his lead. @BristowWx and @George BM are a close second and third- after that, it's a huge gap to 4th place and below.

 

 

 

I admit defeat.  George BM has this contest locked up.  Easy to see a 3rd nearly snowless winter in a row here coming, but even I couldn't predict the nutcracker nature had in store for us with richmond getting pummelled with record snows.  Well done, George.  Very well done.

[Roger Smith]

7 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

@Roger SmithThat will be interesting to keep track of this winter. Not sure I want to know how much time you invested in it though. Must have been a slow weekend.  

Took a while but done in a few separate intervals of an hour or so, just started into it and kept going for some amusement, the weather here is cold but no snow so not much inviting me out of the house. Can't golf and yard work all done, had some football on TV so almost like drone work, have been checking it carefully though as I don't want to find mistakes later. Now finished final check where I fixed up a few minor errors. I am becoming more aware of the power of group thinking in these contests (involved in quite a few elsewhere too) and how well group consensus often does -- it could be an untapped resource for long range forecasting. This winter could prove to be an exception to that idea however. 

[Roger Smith]

This is the same table that I posted earlier, reorganized in order of RIC forecasts. I have placed snow to date near its closest RIC forecasts. (RIC in blue, DCA regular type, IAD red, BWI green and tiebreakers orange (if LYH, * added) ... have edited in Jan 13 additional snowfalls (RIC with 1.5" has only increased slightly and moved down only slightly further into this chart). ... have added Jan 17 reported snowfalls ...

updated to Mar 8th.

 

Forecaster _____Nov date __ 0" __ 2" __ 4" __ 6" __ 8" __10" __12"__14"__16"__18"_20"_22"_24"_26"_28"_30"_32"_34"_36".38".40"...45"...50"..60"..70"..80"

 

Thanatos_I_Am ____ 30 ___________ 3.2 _______ 7.5 _____________________ 18.3 ___________25.8 27.6

MN Transplant _____ 28 _________________5.4 __ 7.8 ___________ 14.2 ____ 17.8_19.6

nw Baltimore wx ___ 10 _______________________ 8.0 _______ 13.0 ____16.0 _________ 22.0_ 25.0

EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 __________________ 6.5_7.8_8.710.911.1

Bristow Wx _________ 1 __________________ 6.7_7.4_8.7 ______ 12.6 13.8

supernovasky _______ 9 __________________________9.0__11.0 12.0___________ 19.020.0

Olafminesaw _______25 ________________________ 8.7_ 9.8 ____________ 17.3 __19.4 ____ 23.5

leesburg 04 _________1 _______________________________11.0 12.0 ______ 17.0_____ 22.023.0

dmillz25 ____________1 ___________________________10.0 11.0 __________ 19.0 _________25.0 __ 29.0

WinterWxLuvr ______ 8 _______________________________ 11.0 _ 13.0_____18.0 ______ 23.0_________ 32.0

cae ______________ 30 _____________________________ 11.7_12.7 _______________ 21.8 _______27.6___ 31.3

_ Snow to date __ Mar 8 _________ 5.3 _______________ 13.1__16.9 18.2 _ (21.0)*____ 26.5

LP08 ______________ 5 ___________________________________13.314.6 _______ 19.7 _____________________ 34.4_______ 42.6

RodneyS __________ 21 ____________________________ 10.5 __ 13.3 13.9 ________ 20.3 __23.6

mattie g __________ 28 _____________________________ 10.4 ______ 13.9 _________ 21.1 ____________ 30.6 __________38.7

Sparky ____________ 2 ________________________________________ 14.015.0_____________ 25.0 ___________34.0 _____ 39.0

Bob Chill __________ 27 ___________________________________ 12.0_14.0_16.0 _____________ 26.0 _29.0

Yoda _____________ 27 ________________________ 8.4 ____________ 14.1 __________21.8 _________ 29.6 __32.9

GATECH __________ 1 _______________________________________14.214.3 ___________________________________ 35.7 _______44.9_47.5

biodhokie __________ 8 _________________________________________ 14.5__17.8 18.1__21.3__________ 30.2

Weather53 _________21 _________________________________________ 14.7_16.516.8___21.2_22.1

Chris78 ____________ 1 ____________________________________12.4 _ 14.9 __ 18.4 ___________ 26.7_28.6

MillvilleWx __________1 _________________________ 8.7 _____________15.0 _______21.1 _________27.4_29.5

ravensrule _________12 __________________________________________15.0_17.0 __________________ 30.0 ____________38.0_40.0

Gopper ___________ 15 ____________________________ 9.9 ___________15.5 _ 17.7 ________________28.8 ___ 33.3

Prestige Worldwide __27 __________________________________ 12.4 ____15.8 __________ 23.0 ___________31.0 ____ 35.0

NorthArlington101 ___ 1 __________________________ 9.1 ______________16.0 _________22.8 __25.7 ______ 32.2

WxWatcher007 _____30 _____________________________10.6 ___________ 16.4 ____ 21.1 _________ 28.9 ____32.5

Shadowzone _______ 14 ____________________________________________ 16.8 ___ 20.3*__ 24.1 _________31.7 ____ 35.7

Cobalt ____________30 __________________________________12.1 _______16.8 _______________ 26.9 ______ 33.2 _______39.4

BTRwx'sThanksGiving_12 _________________________________12.0 _______ 17.0 _________ 24.0 _____________34.0 ___ 38.0

 

___ Consensus ____ median ___________________________________Sby14.4_17.0 ____ 22.7 _____Lyh 30.1*_30.6_ 35.0

 

Prince Frederick Wx _ 1 _______________________________________14.3 ___ 17.117.7 ____24.5 __ 27.8

Stormpc ___________26 _______________________________________16.716.817.2_19.9 __ 24.6

Gramax Refugee ____27 ______________________________________15.2_16.9 17.2 ________________ 29.5_32.0

snowgolfbro _______ 10 ________________________________________ 14.5 __ 18.0 _________________ 30.0 ____________________ 47.0 _52.0

clskinsfan _________ 20 ^ 1 ______________________________________ 15.5 _ 18.5 ______________27.5 ___________ 36.5 37.5

nj2va ____________ 1 __________________________________ 11.5 ____________ 18.9 ______________ 29.2 _____________________ 48.7 _______ 59.9

mappy ____________ 5 __________________________________________________ 19.0 _ 22.0_ 25.0 ________32.0 __ 35.0

Grothar of Herndon _ 30 _______________________________________14.4 ____18.3 19.2 ______ 25.7 __ 29.1

North Balti Zen ______ 5 ______________________________________ 14.0 ________ 19.6_21.1 _______ 28.8 ________35.7

OnceinaLifetime2009_28 _______________________________11.1 _________________19.9 _______ 26.7 __ 30.1 ________________44.5

psuhoffman ________ 1 _________________________________________________19.0 20.0 __________ 28.0 ____________37.0 39.0

HighStakes _________ 6 ________________________________________________ 18.7 20.0 ___ 24.5 ___________________ 37.4 _41.1

Wonderdog ________ 9 ________________________________ 12.75 _____ 16.0 _____ 20.0 ________ 27.0 ____ 33.0

C. A. P. E. _________ 1 _____________________________________________________ 20.1 ___24.5 ______30.3 ______ 35.8_ 38.5

southMDwatcher ___ 20 _________________________________11.4 ________________ 20.7 ______________ 31.1 ______________ 43.8_47.9

Roger Smith ______ 26 ^ 1 _________________________________________ 16.5 _______ 21.0 _______ 29.2 ___________42.5 43.8

WxUSAF ___________ 5 ____________________________________________16.6 ________21.1 22.7 _________31.5 _ 35.2

SnowLuvrDude _____30 _________________________________________________________21.7_ 24.2 ______________ 37.1 ______ 48.6_52.4

weatherCCB _______ 16 ___________________________________________________19.5 __23.0 ____ 27.4 ____________________ 46.8_49.6

showmethesnow ___ 27 ______________________________________________17.0 _______ 24.0 _______________ 34.0 ______________ 50.0 _54.0

JakkelWx _________ 30 _________________________________________________________ 24.0 ____27.0 __________35.0 ___40.0_42.0

budice2002  _______ 14 ______________________________________________________________ 26.0  29.0 31.0 _____________ 42.0_46.0

wxdude64 ________ 13 ________________________________________________________________ 26.1 __30.1*__________ 38.4 ______________55.8 57.4

AFewUnivBelowN ___ 1 __________________________________________ n/a ______________________28.0 _______________ 40.0 _____________ 56.0 __________ 65.0

tplbge ___________ 16 ______________________________________________17.0 ___________________ 29.0 ____34.0 ______________49.0 _53.0

T. August _________ 21 ___________________________________________________19.1__22.9 ____ 27.5_29.2 _______ 36.0

osfan24 ___________ 7 _____________________________________________________ 21.2 ______________ 31.3 _________________ 46.2 _____54.3_55.9

RIC Airport ________ 1 _________________________________________________________________________ 32.2 _________________46.0 __________ 57.8*_ 61.9 62.5

George BM ________ 15 _____ 1.41.7 3.0___________________________________________________________________________42.7___ 50.2

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I might just hand over the keys to @Roger Smith next year lol

[PrinceFrederickWx]

For some reason Wakefield still doesn’t have the SBY total so if it comes down to a tiebreaker we may be screwed.

[Roger Smith]

You should keep the keys, the contest is great but I just like to see the spread of forecasts as we move forward (if we move forward).  That way, I know it's not just me who cut one. 

SBY snow will eventually appear in the CF6, would be my guess, but they had a map showing some amounts like 2" in the same general area. 

On the bright side, 49 of 59 forecasts can still accommodate some additional snow at RIC. Half of us can make room for another 5.5" -- but most of us need storms that mostly miss RIC now. I would be hard pressed to name a favorite at this point. We all tend to look for confirmation of our own forecast, but just as a pure statistical exercise, I would say Grothar of Herndon might have the best chance given this odd start to the season. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

@Roger Smith

Wakefield has it now- 0.8” for Salisbury.

[Prestige Worldwide]

The good thing is- tracking should continue to be easy for the next 20 days or so  

if everyone was allowed 1 edit before the new year- how much slashing of totals would be happening?

 

[Roger Smith]

wake up

[Roger Smith]

In December I posted this chart which graphically illustrates how reality to date compares to the forecasts, using DCA as the organizing value for the chart. A second chart was posted using RIC as the focus. Now that some snow has finally fallen at the other three locations, I think I will only be updating this DCA-based chart. If you didn't see it before, the first posting of this is followed by some interesting statistics on the contest forecasts. I have not copied those to this post. And so, all I've done here is to move the "snow to date" entry down into the table past the 6.5" and 6.7" entries (and in later edit, past 11.0) to 11.7 inches -- this is the new chart ...

DCA in black type, IAD in red, BWI in green, RIC in blue, and (for most) SBY in orange, with LYH also in orange and with the asterisk (for the three who used it as their tie-breaker). I have boosted the totals by two-day reported storm totals or estimates of 10.3" for DCA and 10.6" for IAD,  6.6" for BWI, 1.5" for RIC and 3.7" for SBY, and 4.1" for LYH (all now as per CF6). 

Have added Jan 29 to Mar 8 amounts to this table.

 

Forecaster _____Nov date __ 0" __ 2" __ 4" __ 6" __ 8" __10" __12"__14"__16"__18"_20"_22"_24"_26"_28"_30"_32"_34"_36".38".40"...45"...50"..60"..70"..80"

 

George BM ________ 15 _____ 1.41.7 3.0___________________________________________________________________________42.7___ 50.2

EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 __________________ 6.5_7.8_8.710.911.1

Bristow Wx _________ 1 ___________________ 6.7_7.4_8.7 ____ 12.6 13.8

supernovasky _______ 9 __________________________9.0__11.0 12.0___________ 19.020.0

leesburg 04 _________1 _______________________________11.0 12.0 ______ 17.0_____ 22.023.0

RodneyS __________ 21 ___________________________ 10.5 _13.3 13.9 __________ 20.3 __23.6

MN Transplant _____ 28 _________________5.4 __ 7.8 ___________ 14.2 ____ 17.8_19.6

Wonderdog ________ 9 ________________________________ 12.75 ____ 16.0 ____ 20.0 ________ 27.0 ____ 33.0

nw Baltimore wx ___ 10 _______________________ 8.0 _______ 13.0 ____16.0 _________ 22.0_ 25.0

Bob Chill __________ 27 ________________________________ 12.0_14.0_16.0 _______________ 26.0 _ 29.0

Weather53 _________21 ______________________________________14.7_16.516.8____21.2_22.1

Stormpc ___________26 ___________________________________________16.716.817.2_19.9_ 24.6

Gramax Refugee ____27 _______________________________________15.2_16.9 17.2 ________________ 29.5_32.0

_ Snow to date __ Mar 8 ___________ 5.3 ________________13.1_16.9 _ 18.2 _ (21.0)* _26.5

Olafminesaw _______25 ________________________ 8.7_ 9.8 ____________ 17.3 __19.4 ____ 23.5

Prince Frederick Wx _ 1 ______________________________________ 14.3_17.117.7 __________24.5 _ 27.8

Gopper ___________ 15 ____________________________ 9.9________ 15.5 _ 17.7 __________________28.8 ___ 33.3

biodhokie __________ 8 ______________________________________ 14.5 ___17.8 18.1__21.3__________ 30.2

WinterWxLuvr ______ 8 _______________________________ 11.0 _ 13.0 _____18.0 _______ 23.0_________ 32.0

Thanatos_I_Am ____ 30 ___________ 3.2 _______ 7.5 _____________________ 18.3 ___________25.8 27.6

Grothar of Herndon _ 30 _______________________________________14.4 ____18.3 19.2 ______ 25.7 __ 29.1

Chris78 ____________ 1 ____________________________________12.4 14.9 ___ 18.4 ___________26.7_28.6

dmillz25 ____________1 _____________________________ 10.0 11.0 __________ 19.0 _________25.0 __ 29.0

LP08 ______________ 5 ______________________________________13.314.6 ___ 19.7 _____________________ 34.4_______ 42.6

MillvilleWx __________1 _________________________ 8.7 _____________15.0 _______21.1 _________27.4_29.5

North Balti Zen ______ 5 ______________________________________14.0 _____ 19.6_21.1 _________ 28.8 ________35.7

mattie g __________ 28 _____________________________10.4 _____13.9 __________ 21.1 ____________ 30.6 ___________38.7

WxWatcher007 _____30 _____________________________10.6 ___________16.4 ____ 21.1 _________ 28.9 ____32.5

Yoda _____________ 27 ________________________ 8.4___________ 14.1 ___________21.8 _________29.6 ___ 32.9

cae ______________ 30 ________________________________11.7_12.7 _____________ 21.8 _______27.6 ___ 31.3

WxUSAF ___________ 5 ____________________________________________16.6 ____21.1 22.7 _____________31.5 _ 35.2

 

___ Consensus ____ median ____________________________________Sby14.4 _17.0 ____ 22.7 _____Lyh 30.1*_30.6_ 35.0

 

NorthArlington101 ___ 1 __________________________ 9.1 ______________16.0 _________22.8 __25.7 _____ 32.2

T. August _________ 21 ___________________________________________________19.1__22.9 ____ 27.5_29.2 _______ 36.0

Prestige Worldwide __27 __________________________________12.4 ____15.8 __________ 23.0 ___________31.0 ____ 35.0

BTRwx'sThanksGiving_12 _________________________________12.0 _______17.0 __________ 24.0 _____________34.0 ___ 38.0

Shadowzone _______ 14 ___________________________________________ 16.8 ____ 20.3*__ 24.1 _________31.7 ____ 35.7

HighStakes _________ 6 _________________________________________________18.7 20.0 ___24.5 __________________ 37.4 _41.1

Sparky ____________ 2 ________________________________________ 14.015.0_____________ 25.0 ___________34.0 _____ 39.0

mappy ____________ 5 __________________________________________________ 19.0 _ 22.0_ 25.0 ________32.0 __ 35.0

OnceinaLifetime2009_28 _______________________________11.1 _________________19.9 _______ 26.7 __ 30.1 ________________44.5

Cobalt ____________30 __________________________________12.1 _______16.8 _______________ 26.9 ______ 33.2 _______39.4

weatherCCB _______ 16 ___________________________________________________19.5 __23.0 ____ 27.4 ______________________ 46.8_49.6

clskinsfan _________ 20 ^ 1 ______________________________________ 15.5 _ 18.5 ______________27.5 _____________ 36.5 37.5

psuhoffman ________ 1 ___________________________________________________19.0 20.0 _______ 28.0 _______________37.0 39.0

nj2va ____________ 1 __________________________________ 11.5 ____________ 18.9 _____________ 29.2 _____________________ 48.7 _______ 59.9

Roger Smith ______ 26 ^ 1 _________________________________________ 16.5 _______ 21.0 _______ 29.2 ___________42.5 43.8

snowgolfbro _______ 10 ________________________________________ 14.5 __ 18.0 _________________ 30.0 ____________________ 47.0 _52.0

ravensrule _________12 __________________________________________15.0_17.0 __________________ 30.0 ____________38.0_40.0

C. A. P. E. _________ 1 _____________________________________________________ 20.1 ___24.5 ______30.3 ______ 35.8_ 38.5

budice2002  _______ 14 ______________________________________________________________ 26.0  29.0 31.0 _____________ 42.0_46.0

southMDwatcher ___ 20 _________________________________11.4 ________________ 20.7 ______________ 31.1 ______________ 43.8_47.9

tplbge ___________ 16 ______________________________________________17.0 ___________________ 29.0 ____34.0 ______________49.0 _53.0

showmethesnow ___ 27 ______________________________________________17.0 _______ 24.0 _______________ 34.0 ______________ 50.0 _54.0

JakkelWx _________ 30 _________________________________________________________ 24.0 ____27.0 __________35.0 ___40.0_42.0

GATECH __________ 1 _______________________________________14.214.3 ___________________________________ 35.7 _______44.9_47.5

SnowLuvrDude _____30 ______________________________________________________21.7_ 24.2 ____________________ 37.1 ______ 48.6_52.4

wxdude64 ________ 13 ________________________________________________________________ 26.1 __30.1*__________ 38.4 ______________55.8 57.4

AFewUnivBelowN ___ 1 __________________________________________ n/a ______________________28.0 _______________ 40.0 _____________ 56.0 __________ 65.0

RIC Airport ________ 1 ________________________________________________________________________ 32.2 _________________46.0 __________ 57.8*_ 61.9 62.5

osfan24 ___________ 7 _____________________________________________________ 21.2 ______________ 31.3 _________________ 46.2 _____54.3_55.9

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I’ll update this in a few days once the final numbers are all out. Obviously there are going to be huge lead changes. :-)

[Roger Smith]

In the meantime, I have edited those charts that I posted earlier (the DCA centered one is two posts back, the RIC centered one is edit back further) ... the only unknown at this point is SBY, as I have an update of 1.5" for RIC and have now confirmed 3.7" for SBY for a seasonal total of 4.5" (LYH is 15.8" seasonal) -- will continue to edit those charts with updated information as it comes in. But I think participants may be interested in this, it's a table of what you are now forecasting to reach your targets (and in a very few cases, departures from already passed forecasts). This will approximate what the official contest report says in a day or two about the new order of merit, as I arranged these in terms of total departures. So this is how much more snow you need to get to a perfect forecast (excluding those few who have built in errors already). I have not included the tie breakers in this table. (As of March 8th, SBY now 5.3" and LYH now 21.0").

 

SNOWFALL CONTEST AMOUNTS STILL REQUIRED

(entries in brackets = forecasts now in excess of season to date)

Forecaster _____ Nov date _____ BWI ___ DCA ___ IAD ___ RIC _____ Total dep

Snow to date __ MAR 8 _____ 18.2 __ 16.9 __ 26.5 __ 13.1

 

Stormpc ___________26 _______ 1.7 ___(0.2) ___ (1.9) ___ 4.1 ______ 7.9

Olafminesaw _______ 25 _______ 1.2 ___ 0.4 ____(3.0) ___(3.3) ______7.9

RodneyS __________ 21 _______ 2.1 ___(3.0)___ (2.9) ____ 0.2 ______8.2 

Weather53 _________21 ______  3.0 ___(0.4)___ (4.4) ____ 1.6 ______ 9.4

nw Baltimore wx ___ 10 _______  3.8 ___ (0.9) ___(1.5)___ (5.1) _____ 11.3

Bob Chill __________ 27 _______ 7.8 ___ (0.9) ___ 2.5 ____ 0.9 ______ 12.1

Prince Frederick Wx __1 ________6.3 ___ 0.8 ____ 1.3 ____ 4.0 ______ 12.4

WinterWxLuvr ______ 8 ________4.8 ___ 1.1 ____ 5.5 ____ (2.1) _____ 13.5

biodhokie __________ 8 _______ 3.1 ___ 0.9 ____ (8.4) ___ 1.4 ______ 13.8

Chris78 ____________ 1 _______ 8.5 ___ 1.5 ____ 2.1 ____ 1.8 ______ 13.9

leesburg 04 _________1 _______ 3.8 ___ (4.9)____(3.5) ___(2.1) _____ 14.3 

MN Transplant _____ 28 _______ (0.4) ___(2.7)___(6.9) ___ (5.3) _____ 15.3

dmillz25 ____________1 ______ 10.8 ___ 2.1 ____(1.5)____(2.1) _____ 16.5

Thanatos_I_Am ____ 30 _______ 9.4 ___ 1.4 ____(0.7)____ (5.6) _____ 17.1

Grothar of Herndon _ 30 _______ 7.5 ___ 1.4 ____ 2.6 ____ 6.1 ______ 17.6

MillvilleWx __________1 _______ 9.2 ___ 4.2 ____ 3.0 ____ 1.9 ______ 18.3

supernovasky _______ 9 _______ 1.8 ___ (5.9) ___(7.5) ___(4.1) _____ 19.3

cae ______________ 30 _______ 9.4 ___ 4.9 ____ 4.8 ____(0.4)______ 19.5

Gopper ___________ 15 ______ 10.6 ___ 0.8 ____ 6.8 ____ 2.4 ______ 20.6

Gramax Refugee ____27 ______ 11.3 ___ 0.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 4.1 ______ 20.9

NorthArlington101 ___ 1 _______ 7.5 ___ 5.9 ____ 5.7 ____ 2.9 ______ 22.0

Wonderdog ________ 9 ________8.8 ___(0.3)____ 6.5 ____ 6.9 ______ 22.5

Yoda _____________ 27 ______ 11.4 ___ 4.9 ____ 6.4 ____ 1.0 ______ 23.7

WxWatcher007 _____30 ______ 10.7 ___ 4.2 ____ 6.0 ____ 3.3 ______ 24.2

mattie g __________ 28 ______ 12.4 ___ 4.2 ___ 12.2 ____ 0.8 ______ 29.6

Prestige Worldwide __27 ______ 12.8___ 6.1 ____ 8.5 ____ 2.7 ______ 30.1

North Balti Zen ______5 ______ 10.6 ___ 4.2 ____ 9.2 ____ 6.5 ______ 30.5

___ Consensus ____ median ___ 12.4___ 5.8 ____ 8.5 ____ 3.9 ______ 30.6

Bristow Wx _________ 1 ______ (4.4) _ (10.2) __(13.9) ___(4.4) _____ 32.9

Shadowzone _______ 14 ______ 13.5___ 7.2 ____ 9.2 ____ 3.7 ______ 33.6

LP08 ______________ 5 ______ 16.2 ___ 2.8 ___ 16.1 ____ 0.2 ______ 35.3

wxUSAF ___________ 5 ______ 13.3 ___ 5.8 ____ 8.7 ____ 8.0 ______ 35.8

mappy _____________5 ______ 13.8___ 8.1 ____ 8.5 ____ 5.9 ______ 36.3

Sparky ____________ 2 ______ 15.8___ 8.1 ___ 12.5 ____ 0.9 ______ 37.3

EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 _____ (7.3) __(10.4) __(15.4) ___(4.4) _____ 37.5

BTRwx'sThanksGiving_12 _____ 15.8___ 7.1 ___ 11.5 ____ 3.9 ______ 38.3

T. August _________ 21 ______ 17.8___ 6.0 ____ 1.0 ____16.1______ 40.9

Cobalt ____________ 30 ______ 15.0___10.0 ___12.9 ____ 3.7 ______ 41.6

clskinsfan _________ 20 ^ 1 ___19.3___10.6 ___ 10.0 ____ 5.4 ______ 45.3

OnceinaLifetime2009_ 28 ______11.9___ 9.8 ___ 18.0 ____ 6.8 ______ 46.5

HighStakes _________ 6 ______ 19.2___ 7.6 ___ 14.6 ____ 6.9 ______ 48.3

ravensrule _________12 ______ 19.8___13.1 ___ 13.5 ____ 1.9 ______ 48.3

psuhoffman ________ 1 ______ 20.8___11.1 ___ 10.5 ____ 6.9 ______ 49.3

C. A. P. E. __________1 ______ 20.3___13.4 ____ 9.3 ____ 7.0 ______ 50.0

Roger Smith _______ 26 ^ 1___ 25.6___12.3 ___ 16.0 ____ 7.9 ______ 61.8

JakkelWx _________ 30 ______ 21.8___18.1 ___ 15.5 ___ 10.9 ______ 66.3

GATECH __________ 1 _______ 27.7___18.8 ___ 21.0 ____ 1.2 ______ 67.7

southMDwatcher ___ 20 _______25.6___14.2 ___ 21.4 ____ 7.6 ______ 68.8

budice2002  _______ 14 ______ 23.8___14.1 ___ 19.5 ____12.9 ______ 70.3

weatherCCB _______ 16 ______ 28.6___10.5 ___ 23.1 ____ 9.9 ______ 72.1

snowgolfbro _______ 10 ______ 28.8___13.1 ___ 25.5 ____ 4.9 ______ 72.3

nj2va _____________ 1 _______30.5___12.3 ___ 33.4 ____ 5.8 ______ 82.0

George BM ________ 15 _____ (16.5) __(15.5) __ (23.5) __ 29.6 _____ 85.1

SnowLuvrDude _____30 ______ 30.4___20.2 ___ 25.9 ____ 8.6 ______ 85.1

showmethesnow ___ 27 ______ 31.8___17.1 ___ 27.5 ___ 10.9 ______ 87.3

tplbge ____________16 _______34.8___17.1 ___ 22.5 ___ 15.9 ______ 90.3

wxdude64 ________ 13 _______37.6___21.5 ___ 30.9 ___ 13.0 ______103.0

osfan24 ___________ 7 _______36.1 __29.3 ___ 29.4 ___ 18.2 ______ 113.0

AFewUnivBelowN ___ 1 _______46.8 __23.1 ___ 29.5 ___ 14.9 ______ 114.3

RIC Airport ________ 1 _______44.3 __29.1 ___ 35.4 ___ 19.1 ______ 127.9

__________________________________________________________

 

[RodneyS]

Thanks for your voluminous stats work, Roger.  By the way, the National Weather Service is currently showing 13.0 inches of snow for Richmond so far this season; see https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=akq

[Roger Smith]

Thanks, it just changed for RIC on the daily climate report as you say, 13.0 with 1.5 this month but the CF6 still shows missing amounts for 12th and 13th under snowfall. I will edit tables and charts after they confirm on the CF6, as I am not sure if this 1.5" includes all the weekend time period or only a part of it. Will make no difference to the order I have listed there since almost everyone has 0.5" left to use up but it will move the leaders 1.0" closer to their chasers if they have gone over their forecast amounts for RIC. Also my charts are totally unofficial, just for something to look at until the official stats are posted by PFwx.

edit __ I have updated now using the 13.0" total. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Subject to change, but here's what I have so far:

BWI: 8.3"

DCA: 11.7"

IAD: 13.6"

RIC: 13.0"

This would narrowly keep Eastcoast NPZ in the lead over BristowWx.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

It's such a bizarre outcome having BWI being the lowest airport total of the four so far.

[Roger Smith]

SBY now updated too, 3.7" storm for 4.5" seasonal. 

LYH had already posted 4.1" for 15.6" seasonal. 

My charts showing the graphic version of the contest standings are updated. Hoping that my calculations are accurate, I did come up with the same leader anyway. 

[nj2va]

Thanks for updating the standings!  @EastCoast NPZ Enjoy your last days in the lead...February be rockin’