Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest


PrinceFrederickWx
 Share

Recommended Posts

40 of 59 forecasters still have not reached their forecast snowfalls at any of four locations. An additional four have only passed RIC. 

In addition, only one tiebreaker forecast has been surpassed, none of the three for LYH so it's one at SBY. However, recent snow remains "msg" if there was any, another tiebreaker forecast is within 0.4" of being overtaken without that. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Daily Climate Report numbers are out, they are the same as this morning, so here's the updated spreadsheet. Indeed, we have a tie.

As for the tiebreaker:  @Stormpc forecast 16.8" and @olafminesaw forecast 8.7", both at SBY. The total currently at SBY is 5.0", so Olaf wins in a tiebreaker.

@nw baltimore wx has now been mathematically eliminated (sorry man...).

@Bob Chill is in a very good spot now IMHO despite busting on DCA.

See @RodneyS, BWI can jackpot over IAD! These were the thread-the-needle totals that are still keeping you in the game!

Full list.JPG

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

See @RodneyS, BWI can jackpot over IAD! These were the thread-the-needle totals that are still keeping you in the game!

 

Today's storm was a thread-the-needle masterpiece for me.  I still need at least 2.2 inches at BWI and no more than 2.9 inches at IAD, but that's more doable than what I needed prior to today, which was at least 4.4 inches at BWI and no more than 3.5 inches at IAD. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

:angry:

Is it still possible to get a podium finish?

If Sterling revises the totals enough, you can still win it.  ;)  Otherwise, it looks as if you could finish 2nd, behind Weather53 by only 0.3, if you nail BWI. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have now updated all charts back on page five of the thread. They seem to match the latest spread sheet except that 0.2" more has fallen at BWI (3rd) so that resulted in one or two changes in the order as shown, almost everyone gaining 0.2" (losing 0.2" from total departures). 

I will move the last of the charts that I produced to the end of the thread when the contest seems to be done. Could be some more snow next week by the looks of some guidance. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I have now updated all charts back on page five of the thread. They seem to match the latest spread sheet except that 0.2" more has fallen at BWI (3rd) so that resulted in one or two changes in the order as shown, almost everyone gaining 0.2" (losing 0.2" from total departures). 

I will move the last of the charts that I produced to the end of the thread when the contest seems to be done. Could be some more snow next week by the looks of some guidance. 

Yeah I gotta update the spreadsheet. This is getting really close, especially with BWI. Gonna have to figure out the "playoff scenarios" lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's what the SBY forecast looks like for the top four- Stormpc and Weather53 actually have the same forecast, although I haven't found a situation where they would both tie in the main game.

Rodney would win a tie against Weather53 should that situation I mentioned last night occur with 2.9" at BWI.

tiebreaker.JPG

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Here's what the SBY forecast looks like for the top four- Stormpc and Weather53 actually have the same forecast, although I haven't found a situation where they would both tie in the main game.

Rodney would win a tie against Weather53 should that situation I mentioned last night occur with 2.9" at BWI.

tiebreaker.JPG

I'll settle for the 2.9" at BWI, provided that IAD and DCA get very little. (I'm assuming that Richmond is done.)  For example, 2.9" at BWI combined with 2.3" at IAD and 0.1" at DCA allows me to take the lead.  However, if it's 2.9" at BWI combined with 2.4" at IAD, I'm out, and Bob Chill would take the lead, provided that DCA gets less than 0.3".  But if it's 2.9" at BWI combined with 2.4" at IAD and 0.3" or more at DCA, you take the lead.  Needless to say, there are countless other far-fetched possibilities that keep most other contestants alive, such as a late March Mid-Atlantic storm similar to the March 29, 1942 (Palm Sunday that year) storm; see https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1992-03-23-1992083144-story.html

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, RodneyS said:

I'll settle for the 2.9" at BWI, provided that IAD and DCA get very little. (I'm assuming that Richmond is done.)  For example, 2.9" at BWI combined with 2.3" at IAD and 0.1" at DCA allows me to take the lead.  However, if it's 2.9" at BWI combined with 2.4" at IAD, I'm out, and Bob Chill would take the lead, provided that DCA gets less than 0.3".  But if it's 2.9" at BWI combined with 2.4" at IAD and 0.3" or more at DCA, you take the lead.  Needless to say, there are countless other far-fetched possibilities that keep most other contestants alive, such as a late March Mid-Atlantic storm similar to the March 29, 1942 (Palm Sunday that year) storm; see https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1992-03-23-1992083144-story.html

The latest major storm that covers the entire subforum that I know of is April 3, 1915: RIC had 10", BWI" had 4.5, and DCA had 3.5". Incidentally, PHL actually had 19.4" (miller B screw job for us?). So April 3 is the deadline I have for the weeniecasters to get their act together. :lol:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The latest non-major storm to cover all the airports was 4/28/1898 (which I'm guessing was some type of southern slider): 2.0" at RIC, 0.5" at DCA, 0.1" at BWI. Given 0.1" at RIC currently makes the difference between the winner and loser, this contest, as it is now, will probably stay open until the end of April.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...