Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Another 0.2" at BWI and 1.0" at IAD so far. Here's the updated top ten.

I need to get rid of RIC for next year's contest- I would've won last year had it only been DCA/IAD/BWI and I'm gonna bet it happens again this year!

@WinterWxLuvr may be a dark horse here if we ever get one more semi-decent event though.

[olafminesaw]

It seems historically I am more likely than not to hold on for the win, but my margin for error is narrow.

Odds of at least .1" of snow in the second half of March/April (past 30 years):

DCA (April): 23% (6.6%)

IAD: 51% (13%)

BWI: 43% (10%)

RIC: 23% (10%)

Odds of at least 1" of snowfall

DCA: 13%

IAD: 40%

BWI: 20%

RIC: 10% 

[RodneyS]

19 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It seems historically I am more likely than not to hold on for the win, but my margin for error is narrow.

Odds of at least .1" of snow in the second half of March/April (past 30 years):

DCA (April): 23% (6.6%)

IAD: 51% (13%)

BWI: 43% (10%)

RIC: 23% (10%)

Odds of at least 1" of snowfall

DCA: 13%

IAD: 40%

BWI: 20%

RIC: 10% 

It appears the key thing for you is to have IAD come in under 2.5 inches for the rest of the snow season.  If it receives that much or more, Bob Chill would catch you.  In my case, I need IAD to come in under two inches, with BWI picking up at least 1.9 inches.

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, RodneyS said:

It appears the key thing for you is to have IAD come in under 2.5 inches for the rest of the snow season.  If it receives that much or more, Bob Chill would catch you.  In my case, I need IAD to come in under two inches, with BWI picking up at least 1.9 inches.

Also Stormpc would overtake me with any amount at DCA

[PrinceFrederickWx]

33 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Also Stormpc would overtake me with any amount at DCA

I’m not sure what you mean- right now, any amount at DCA (at least up to 0.4”) would give you an outright lead. Stormpc would overtake you with any amount at RIC though.

I was curious about two things if you don’t mind me asking: what does your screen name mean, and didn’t you use to live in DC? It says now you live in NC?

I think Stormpc said in another thread that he was moving to NC- living there may be crucial to winning these contests! Lol

[RodneyS]

17 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Also Stormpc would overtake me with any amount at DCA

 

23 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I’m not sure what you mean- right now, any amount at DCA (at least up to 0.4”) would give you an outright lead. Stormpc would overtake you with any amount at RIC though.

Also, if there are 0.4 inches or more at DCA, Stormpc could still take the lead with 1.7-1.8 inches at BWI.  But if BWI reaches 1.9 inches, he's out, unless there is more snow at RIC.  So for Stormpc's best chance of winning, he does not want any more snow at DCA and little at BWI, which raises an interesting point about yesterday's snow at DCA.  It was officially a trace, but I'm thinking it could have easily been 0.1 inches, depending on the measurement technique.  According to https://www.weather.gov/gsp/snow --

 Snow often melts as it lands. If snow continually melts as it lands, and the accumulation never reaches 0.1 inches on your measuring surface, snowfall should be recorded as a trace (T) and record in your remarks that the "snow melted as it landed."

So, evidently the snow never reached 0.1 inches at DCA because it "melted as it landed."

[olafminesaw]

52 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I’m not sure what you mean- right now, any amount at DCA (at least up to 0.4”) would give you an outright lead. Stormpc would overtake you with any amount at RIC though.

I was curious about two things if you don’t mind me asking: what does your screen name mean, and didn’t you use to live in DC? It says now you live in NC?

I think Stormpc said in another thread that he was moving to NC- living there may be crucial to winning these contests! Lol

Right, I had those numbers flipped. 

It was an auto-generated screen name generated by Runescape from a long time ago, I used it for a lot of accounts.

I moved to NC this fall. I had been going to school in Newport News and I lived in Chantilly 3 years ago. I nearly didn't enter this year because I no longer lived in the region, but  someone tagged me, since I won last year.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

6 hours ago, RodneyS said:

 

Also, if there are 0.4 inches or more at DCA, Stormpc could still take the lead with 1.7-1.8 inches at BWI.  But if BWI reaches 1.9 inches, he's out, unless there is more snow at RIC.  So for Stormpc's best chance of winning, he does not want any more snow at DCA and little at BWI, which raises an interesting point about yesterday's snow at DCA.  It was officially a trace, but I'm thinking it could have easily been 0.1 inches, depending on the measurement technique.  According to https://www.weather.gov/gsp/snow --

 Snow often melts as it lands. If snow continually melts as it lands, and the accumulation never reaches 0.1 inches on your measuring surface, snowfall should be recorded as a trace (T) and record in your remarks that the "snow melted as it landed."

So, evidently the snow never reached 0.1 inches at DCA because it "melted as it landed."

I’m surprised it was only a Trace too- I work in Suitland which is east of DCA and it looked like about 0.5-0.75” on the ground. But it’s DCA, so... 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

...I suppose this is one way for Stormpc to win the tiebreaker  

[MN Transplant]

3 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I’m surprised it was only a Trace too- I work in Suitland which is east of DCA and it looked like about 0.5-0.75” on the ground. But it’s DCA, so... 

My wife works within a mile of DCA.  She had no idea it had accumulated anywhere until she saw some cars with snow on them on the way home yesterday.  The T is real.

[Stormpc]

It's been a nice run. Regardless of the final outcome I will hold my head high as a former champion and current leader. Lots of people are still in it as we come down the stretch.

[wxdude64]

All this talk is nice, but once the 97 inches of snow fall over the sites over the next 20 days show me and myself will be left battling it out.......

[George BM]

1 hour ago, wxdude64 said:

All this talk is nice, but once the 97 inches of snow fall over the sites over the next 20 days show me and myself will be left battling it out.......

Hopefully in the form of back to back snowicanes with snowrechos in between.

[Fozz]

On 3/9/2019 at 8:25 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

...I suppose this is one way for Stormpc to win the tiebreaker  

Let’s get a third beach chase @C.A.P.E.

[Roger Smith]

Events around the 21st have 3-5" potential if they stay cold enough and phase slightly. That much would probably introduce a few new names to the discussion. 

I looked up weather maps for the 1898 and 1915 very late snowfalls, both were basically coastals. 

[Roger Smith]

This is the updated "snow you need" table with error amounts already logged and surpassed in brackets. I have added the interesting feature of forecasts passed by actual snowfall, each time somebody adds to that total, the running total changes (same order as the forecast departures). As you'll see, only four forecasts have been overtaken by BWI, while it is 11 for RIC,  12 for DCA and 14 for IAD. Of the 59 forecasts, 18 have at least one forecast passed by actual snowfall, 41 therefore can still finish perfect with the right residual snowfalls (one forecast is currently on the money for DCA). The leader in that category (no forecasts surpassed) is event host Prince Frederick wx. 

 

Forecaster ______ Nov date ____ BWI ___ DCA ___ IAD ____ RIC ____ TOTAL _ (forecasts passed by actual) 

 

Stormpc ___________26 _______ 1.7 ___(0.2) ___ (1.9) ___ 4.1 ______ 7.9 ____ 0 1 1 0

Olafminesaw _______ 25 _______ 1.2 ___ 0.4 ____(3.0) ___(3.3) ______7.9 ____ 0 1 2 1

RodneyS __________ 21 _______ 2.1 ___(3.0)___ (2.9) ____ 0.2 ______8.2 ____ 0 2 3 1

Weather53 _________21 ______  3.0 ___(0.4)___ (4.4) ____ 1.6 ______ 9.4 ____ 0 3 4 1

nw Baltimore wx ___ 10 _______  3.8 ___ (0.9) ___(1.5)___ (5.1) _____ 11.3 ____ 0 4 5 2

Bob Chill __________ 27 _______ 7.8 ___ (0.9) ___ 2.5 ____ 0.9 ______ 12.1 ____ 0 5 5 2

Prince Frederick Wx __1 ________6.3 ___ 0.8 ____ 1.3 ____ 4.0 ______ 12.4 

WinterWxLuvr ______ 8 ________4.8 ___ 1.1 ____ 5.5 ____ (2.1) _____ 13.5 ____ 0 5 5 3

biodhokie __________ 8 _______ 3.1 ___ 0.9 ____ (8.4) ___ 1.4 ______ 13.8 ____ 0 5 6 3

Chris78 ____________ 1 _______ 8.5 ___ 1.5 ____ 2.1 ____ 1.8 ______ 13.9

leesburg 04 _________1 _______ 3.8 ___ (4.9)____(3.5) ___(2.1) _____ 14.3 ____ 0 6 7 4

MN Transplant _____ 28 _______ (0.4) ___(2.7)___(6.9) ___ (5.3) _____ 15.3 ____ 1 7 8 5

dmillz25 ____________1 ______ 10.8 ___ 2.1 ____(1.5)____(2.1) _____ 16.5 ____ 1 7 9 6

Thanatos_I_Am ____ 30 _______ 9.4 ___ 1.4 ____(0.7)____ (5.6) _____ 17.1 ____ 1 7 10 7

Grothar of Herndon _ 30 _______ 7.5 ___ 1.4 ____ 2.6 ____ 6.1 ______ 17.6

MillvilleWx __________1 _______ 9.2 ___ 4.2 ____ 3.0 ____ 1.9 ______ 18.3

supernovasky _______ 9 _______ 1.8 ___ (5.9) ___(7.5) ___(4.1) _____ 19.3 ____ 1 8 11 8

cae ______________ 30 _______ 9.4 ___ 4.9 ____ 4.8 ____(0.4)______ 19.5 ____ 1 8 11 9

Gopper ___________ 15 ______ 10.6 ___ 0.8 ____ 6.8 ____ 2.4 ______ 20.6

Gramax Refugee ____27 ______ 11.3 ___ 0.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 4.1 ______ 20.9

NorthArlington101 ___ 1 _______ 7.5 ___ 5.9 ____ 5.7 ____ 2.9 ______ 22.0

Wonderdog ________ 9 ________8.8 ___(0.3)____ 6.5 ____ 6.9 ______ 22.5 ____ 1 9 11 9

Yoda _____________ 27 ______ 11.4 ___ 4.9 ____ 6.4 ____ 1.0 ______ 23.7

WxWatcher007 _____30 ______ 10.7 ___ 4.2 ____ 6.0 ____ 3.3 ______ 24.2

mattie g __________ 28 ______ 12.4 ___ 4.2 ___ 12.2 ____ 0.8 ______ 29.6

Prestige Worldwide __27 ______ 12.8___ 6.1 ____ 8.5 ____ 2.7 ______ 30.1

North Balti Zen ______5 ______ 10.6 ___ 4.2 ____ 9.2 ____ 6.5 ______ 30.5

___ Consensus ____ median ___ 12.4___ 5.8 ____ 8.5 ____ 3.9 ______ 30.6

Bristow Wx _________ 1 ______ (4.4) _ (10.2) __(13.9) ___(4.4) _____ 32.9 ___ 2 10 12 10

Shadowzone _______ 14 ______ 13.5___ 7.2 ____ 9.2 ____ 3.7 ______ 33.6

LP08 ______________ 5 ______ 16.2 ___ 2.8 ___ 16.1 ____ 0.2 ______ 35.3

wxUSAF ___________ 5 ______ 13.3 ___ 5.8 ____ 8.7 ____ 8.0 ______ 35.8

mappy _____________5 ______ 13.8___ 8.1 ____ 8.5 ____ 5.9 ______ 36.3

Sparky ____________ 2 ______ 15.8___ 8.1 ___ 12.5 ____ 0.9 ______ 37.3

EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 _____ (7.3) __(10.4) __(15.4) ___(4.4) _____ 37.5 ___ 3 11 13 11

BTRwx'sThanksGiving_12 _____ 15.8___ 7.1 ___ 11.5 ____ 3.9 ______ 38.3

T. August _________ 21 ______ 17.8___ 6.0 ____ 1.0 ____16.1______ 40.9

Cobalt ____________ 30 ______ 15.0___10.0 ___12.9 ____ 3.7 ______ 41.6

clskinsfan _________ 20 ^ 1 ___19.3___10.6 ___ 10.0 ____ 5.4 ______ 45.3

OnceinaLifetime2009_ 28 ______11.9___ 9.8 ___ 18.0 ____ 6.8 ______ 46.5

HighStakes _________ 6 ______ 19.2___ 7.6 ___ 14.6 ____ 6.9 ______ 48.3

ravensrule _________12 ______ 19.8___13.1 ___ 13.5 ____ 1.9 ______ 48.3

psuhoffman ________ 1 ______ 20.8___11.1 ___ 10.5 ____ 6.9 ______ 49.3

C. A. P. E. __________1 ______ 20.3___13.4 ____ 9.3 ____ 7.0 ______ 50.0

Roger Smith _______ 26 ^ 1___ 25.6___12.3 ___ 16.0 ____ 7.9 ______ 61.8

JakkelWx _________ 30 ______ 21.8___18.1 ___ 15.5 ___ 10.9 ______ 66.3

GATECH __________ 1 _______ 27.7___18.8 ___ 21.0 ____ 1.2 ______ 67.7

southMDwatcher ___ 20 _______25.6___14.2 ___ 21.4 ____ 7.6 ______ 68.8

budice2002  _______ 14 ______ 23.8___14.1 ___ 19.5 ____12.9 ______ 70.3

weatherCCB _______ 16 ______ 28.6___10.5 ___ 23.1 ____ 9.9 ______ 72.1

snowgolfbro _______ 10 ______ 28.8___13.1 ___ 25.5 ____ 4.9 ______ 72.3

nj2va _____________ 1 _______30.5___12.3 ___ 33.4 ____ 5.8 ______ 82.0

George BM ________ 15 _____ (16.5) __(15.5) __ (23.5) __ 29.6 _____ 85.1 ___ 4 12 14 11

SnowLuvrDude _____30 ______ 30.4___20.2 ___ 25.9 ____ 8.6 ______ 85.1

showmethesnow ___ 27 ______ 31.8___17.1 ___ 27.5 ___ 10.9 ______ 87.3

tplbge ____________16 _______34.8___17.1 ___ 22.5 ___ 15.9 ______ 90.3

wxdude64 ________ 13 _______37.6___21.5 ___ 30.9 ___ 13.0 ______103.0

osfan24 ___________ 7 _______36.1 __29.3 ___ 29.4 ___ 18.2 ______ 113.0

AFewUnivBelowN ___ 1 _______46.8 __23.1 ___ 29.5 ___ 14.9 ______ 114.3

RIC Airport ________ 1 _______44.3 __29.1 ___ 35.4 ___ 19.1 ______ 127.9

__________________________________________________________

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

Events around the 21st have 3-5" potential if they stay cold enough and phase slightly. That much would probably introduce a few new names to the discussion. 

I looked up weather maps for the 1898 and 1915 very late snowfalls, both were basically coastals. 

Where did you find maps for these events? I’d like to see those.

And yes, I do intend on winning with a perfect score, thank you very much 

[Roger Smith]

That 3 to 5 inch potential has vanished more recently, could see faint hope near end of the current run but we all know what usually happens to snow at 15 days. 

The maps are available at this link:

http://wetterzentrale.de

click on "Archiv" option and go to 20th century NOAA which in fact is now 1851 to 2014 NOAA. From there, navigate using "nordhemispher" option.

Let me know if that is not sufficient to get you to the maps. 

This link should go to April 28, 1898. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?uur=1800&var=1&nmaps=24&map=2&model=noaa&jaar=1898&maand=04&dag=28

My German is not that good, but I now know the words for day, month and year. 

Abschicken is what you press to activate a selected date from the menu.

Hover works to allow you to change maps within the 3-day adjacent menu without the help of Abs chicken.

 

 

 

[RodneyS]

On 3/8/2019 at 10:04 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Another 0.2" at BWI and 1.0" at IAD so far. Here's the updated top ten.

I need to get rid of RIC for next year's contest- I would've won last year had it only been DCA/IAD/BWI and I'm gonna bet it happens again this year!

@WinterWxLuvr may be a dark horse here if we ever get one more semi-decent event though.

A faint ray of hope for Stormpc:  The last weak El Nino winter before this one was 2006-07.  That season an inch of snow fell at RIC on April 7, 2007.  On that same day, DCA received 0.4", and IAD and BWI each received 0.2".  So, that combination, or merely 0.1" at RIC with no measurable snow at DCA, would do it for him.  For the rest of us, we need a miracle!

[PrinceFrederickWx]

The main thing to keep an eye on is 0.1" at DCA gives Olaf an outright win, and 0.1" at RIC puts Stormpc back in the lead. Not hard to do 0.1" overnight in April, so both of them will be in the game a long time.

The other "recent" April event would be 1990 at IAD- if something like that were to occur, Bob Chill or WinterWxLuvr would win.

[RodneyS]

6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

The main thing to keep an eye on is 0.1" at DCA gives Olaf an outright win, and 0.1" at RIC puts Stormpc back in the lead. Not hard to do 0.1" overnight in April, so both of them will be in the game a long time.

The other "recent" April event would be 1990 at IAD- if something like that were to occur, Bob Chill or WinterWxLuvr would win.

And I can still win with the first 1.9" or better April snow event in Baltimore since 1924, provided that IAD gets no more than 1.9".  

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Looks like they upped BWI's total by 0.1" to 18.3" for the season. This doesn't really change anything but here's the updated list. I guess it's a slight help to @RodneyS in a Hail Mary pass 

[WEATHER53]

The Single Digit Departure Club.

i like the ring of that.

[RodneyS]

17 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Looks like they upped BWI's total by 0.1" to 18.3" for the season. This doesn't really change anything but here's the updated list. I guess it's a slight help to @RodneyS in a Hail Mary pass 

I'm sure that Stormpc is hoping that another 0.1" can be found for RIC.  In my case, I now need at least 1.8" at BWI, which has never happened there this late in the season.  However, prior to BWI, there were a few Baltimore snowstorms during April 3-11 that exceeded that total.  The big one was a mere 125 years ago -- April 10-11, 1894, when a two-day storm produced five inches.  

[Stormpc]

2 hours ago, RodneyS said:

I'm sure that Stormpc is hoping that another 0.1" can be found for RIC.  In my case, I now need at least 1.8" at BWI, which has never happened there this late in the season.  However, prior to BWI, there were a few Baltimore snowstorms during April 3-11 that exceeded that total.  The big one was a mere 125 years ago -- April 10-11, 1894, when a two-day storm produced five inches.  

I'm ok if things end up as final. I will retire from Mid Atlantic Region board with a Championship in 2017 and a tiebreaker loss (2nd place) in 2019. A great run. Now if they post a contest in the Southeast region for next year I will enter that.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

I'm ok if things end up as final. I will retire from Mid Atlantic Region board with a Championship in 2017 and a tiebreaker loss (2nd place) in 2019. A great run. Now if they post a contest in the Southeast region for next year I will enter that.

You should consider entering here next year again- you and olaf are like the Tom Brady and Peyton Manning of this contest! 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

It’s basically down now to the 0.1” at RIC to see if Stormpc can pull off an upset win- since that’s happened several times at RIC in mid/late April I’ll keep this open for about another 2-3 weeks. 

[RodneyS]

On 4/8/2019 at 11:33 AM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It’s basically down now to the 0.1” at RIC to see if Stormpc can pull off an upset win- since that’s happened several times at RIC in mid/late April I’ll keep this open for about another 2-3 weeks. 

Yep, the Fat Lady has sung for all contestants except Stormpc, and even for him, she's warming up in the bullpen.  However, since this is the Mid-Atlantic -- i.e. Nats' -- bullpen, it's not quite over, even with an 10-run lead in the 9th inning. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Olaf’s just sitting on the football running out the clock. Coach@showmethesnow has already headed to the locker room and declined all post-game interviews. 

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Olaf’s just sitting on the football running out the clock. Coach@showmethesnow has already headed to the locker room and declined all post-game interviews. 

And you're checking to see if all the balls are fully inflated.