Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

[aldie 22]

If the snow can keep skipping DC and ric I'm still in this for a minute 

[tplbge]

2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

If the snow can keep skipping DC and ric I'm still in this for a minute 

I need a HECS to maybe hit the leaderboard. 

 

[Roger Smith]

I will update my charts tonight after seeing today's totals, meanwhile looking at guidance, can see potential for a bit more in the next few days, would be lucky to get 2" though.

Most of us are going to need something to change in this two weeks or appear on the maps in mid to late February. 

Charts now updated (scroll back to page five, the chart in small type in a recent post was not updated). Matches the top ten as shown, except that 0.1" more fell at IAD. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Another quick update after the 0.1" at IAD yesterday (which was enough to make Bristow and Weather53 change places). Full analysis / "halftime report" still coming on Saturday evening (btw @showmethesnow I'm still cracking up at your post from the other day!).

 

[aldie 22]

25 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Another quick update after the 0.1" at IAD yesterday (which was enough to make Bristow and Weather53 change places). Full analysis / "halftime report" still coming on Saturday evening (btw @showmethesnow I'm still cracking up at your post from the other day!).

 

My money is on Weather53 on this one...room on each airport and enough for a decent sized storm. I think DCA may be my downfall

[Stormpc]

26 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

My money is on Weather53 on this one...room on each airport and enough for a decent sized storm. I think DCA may be my downfall

Yes...for you, Ric and Dca is going to kill you.

[nj2va]

12 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

My money is on Weather53 on this one...room on each airport and enough for a decent sized storm. I think DCA may be my downfall

But 12 hours later, everyone is celebrating an epic February so you need to look much further down in the standings to find a potential front runner.  

[George BM]

I wonder if I can win last place trophy? Just need the DC/Balt corridor to have a great run over the next several weeks while Richmond and Salisbury get nothing or near nothing and I've clinched it.

[aldie 22]

Today should leapfrog me over eazy e

[PrinceFrederickWx]

@WxWatcher007

I'll check tomorrow once we're all done with this event. I'm thinking the order for many people are going to be shuffled around a lot after today.

[Roger Smith]

Various charts that I produced including "snow needed" are now updated back in the thread (on page 5), small type added to more recent post is not updated. What I saw for new snowfall on Feb 1st was 1.1" BWI, 0.9" DCA and IAD, and 0.5" SBY. Only trace amounts at RIC and LYH.

This is my version of the top ten, to be confirmed of course. I have added two columns to show total needed vs errors already accumulating (the contest standings would be the sum of these as both are "errors" although one is a good kind and one not so good, until you get to the end of the season, then it reverses).

 

SNOWFALL CONTEST AMOUNTS STILL REQUIRED -- post edited on Feb 11th to show small additions Feb 10th

(entries in brackets = amounts now in excess of season to date)

Forecaster _____ Nov date _____ BWI ___ DCA ___ IAD ___ RIC _____ Total dep ___ needed ___ errors accumulating

Snow to date __ 1 Feb _____ 11.1 __ 14.0 __ 20.2 __ 13.0

MN Transplant _____ 28 _______ 6.7 ___ 0.2 _____ (0.6) ___(5.2) _____ 12.7 _______ 6.9" ______ 5.8"

RodneyS __________ 21 _______ 9.2 ___(0.1) ____ 3.4 ____ 0.3 ______ 13.0 _______12.9" ______ 0.1"

Weather53 _________21 _____  10.1 ___ 2.5 ____ 1.9 ____ 1.7 ______ 16.2 _______ 16.2" ______ 0.0"

supernovasky _______ 9 _______ 8.9 ___ (3.0) ___(1.2)___ (4.0) _____ 17.1 ________ 8.9" ______ 8.2"

biodhokie __________ 8 ______ 10.2 ___ 3.8 ____ (2.1) ___ 1.5 ______ 17.6 _______ 15.5" ______ 2.1"

leesburg 04 _________1 ______ 10.9 ___(2.0)____ 2.8 ____(2.0) _____ 17.7 _______ 11.7" ______ 4.0"

Olafminesaw _______ 25 _______ 8.3 ___ 3.3 ____ 3.3 ____(3.2) _____ 18.1 _______ 14.9" ______ 3.2"

Stormpc ___________26 _______ 8.8 ___ 2.7 ____ 4.4 ____ 4.2 ______ 20.1 _______20.1" ______ 0.0"

EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 _______(0.2) __ (7.5) ___ (9.1) __ (4.3) _____ 21.1 _______ 0.0" ______21.1"

Bristow Wx _________ 1 _______ 2.7 ___ (7.3) ___ (7.6) __ (4.3) _____ 21.9 _______ 2.7" ______ 19.2"

(then with reference to the full table back on page 5, the only other forecaster who has any accumulating errors other than at RIC is George BM, otherwise the total departures are all "snow needed" for the other 49 forecasters in the list with the exception of five who are already accumulating errors if it snows again at RIC.)

====================================================

(edited to remove amounts from Feb 10) This is the "one more storm club" ... standings that would occur after an 11.2" snowfall at IAD, 9.5" BWI, 7.8" DCA and 4" at RIC ... just a hypothetical but it would be mostly forecasters in the middle of the pack.  

1. North Arlington 101 ____ 7.9" (incl 1.0" accum error at IAD)

2. wxwatch007 _________ 10.7" (no accum errors)

t3. cae and Millville wx ___ 11.4" (several accum errors each) ... they would be near the lead with a smaller event

5. Prince Frederick wx ____11.7" (same as above)

6. stormPC _____________ 12.8" (same as above)

__________________________________________________

I derived those from changing the actual snow in my excel file to those additional amounts. A smaller storm (8, 6, 4 and 2 inches) would leave storm PC in the lead with Prince Frederick wx just 1.1" behind ... adding 0.6" to those totals at either IAD or RIC moves Prince Frederick wx into the lead. So those are the kinds of events you chasers need, some of the rest of us need perhaps two of those events to get into the hunt. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I think I'm gonna make this an annual tradition for the contest on super bowl weekend. Alright, it's time for the PrinceFrederickWx Halftime Report, brought to you by @showmethesnow

 

Here's the totals at the airports so far:

 

BWI: 10.6"

DCA: 13.8"

IAD: 19.4"

RIC: 13.0"

 

The main surprise here is that BWI has the lowest total of all four airports. Not a single player chose BWI to have the smallest total; therefore, the departures are higher than what we've seen in some previous contests due to this peculiar ratio. 

 

Let's put up the top 15, with some commentary:

 

@MN Transplant is the current leader but I don't think he can hold on for long- even a minor event is likely to hurt him unless it's a boom at BWI.

 

@RodneyS is looking good but will need DCA and RIC to basically get shutout from now on. A minor event at IAD and BWI will put Rodney at the top. @leesburg 04is in a similar position.

 

@supernovasky, @EastCoast NPZ, @George BM and @BristowWx have been mathematically eliminated.

 

@biodhokie can theoretically still win but is in an unusual position of needing BWI, DCA and RIC to get snow while IAD gets shut out- maybe a storm that forms further east and screws the western areas of the subforum?

 

@WEATHER53 and our 2016/17 champion @Stormpc are both looking good, unless we get a major storm. A few minor events at all the airports and they'll be at the top.

 

@Bob Chill, @nw baltimore wx, @dmillz25, @WinterWxLuvr and our defending champion @olafminesaw could all do well with a climo event that keeps RIC shutout.

 

I like where I sit too, even though I'm currently in 13th- one high end WWA event at all the airports that jackpots BWI and I'll be in contention.

 

btw @WxWatcher007 you're currently in 26th- you still have plenty of room to get more snow at all four.

[NorthArlington101]

I like where @Roger Smith has me. The numbers I need to do well seem reasonable.

[Stormpc]

Awesome. Thanks to Roger and PrinceFrederickwx. 

[Roger Smith]

Yeah, as long as the half time is not the two minute warning instead. 

[Shadowzone]

Need you folks up north to get a foot while RIC only get 3"

My total speculative forecast:  One disruptive event each in February (6-8 inches) and March (3-5 inches).  

[tplbge]

On 2/2/2019 at 10:29 PM, Stormpc said:

Awesome. Thanks to Roger and PrinceFrederickwx. 

Thanks for running this.  Looks like we have a possible event for the middle of next week.

[aldie 22]

I concede

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

I concede

Now we’re gonna get a norlun trough from IAD to BWI- watch! 

[aldie 22]

21 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Now we’re gonna get a norlun trough from IAD to BWI- watch! 

I'm expecting big snows to put me out...I'm hoping some guy way down on the list with crazy numbers wins at this point.

[nj2va]

27 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm expecting big snows to put me out...I'm hoping some guy way down on the list with crazy numbers wins at this point.

Hi

[aldie 22]

I'm gonna withdraw my concession...if we can get a little bit next week at IAD and BWI and zero at DCA and RIC I may still have a shot at this puppy 

[showmethesnow]

59 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm gonna withdraw my concession...if we can get a little bit next week at IAD and BWI and zero at DCA and RIC I may still have a shot at this puppy 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Starting next year the new rule is gonna be: if you forfeit, you can’t come back. Your name gets scrubbed from the spreadsheet. 

[aldie 22]

14 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Starting next year the new rule is gonna be: if you forfeit, you can’t come back. Your name gets scrubbed from the spreadsheet. 

Lol.....to the supreme court!!

[showmethesnow]

51 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Starting next year the new rule is gonna be: if you forfeit, you can’t come back. Your name gets scrubbed from the spreadsheet. 

If I pay you a little under the table can I get you to scrub me and my guesses from the last two years? They are kind of embarrassing to be honest. 

[showmethesnow]

39 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Lol.....to the supreme court!!

With some of the nonsense being shoved into the Supreme Court now-a-days this would fit right in. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

If I pay you a little under the table can I get you to scrub me and my guesses from the last two years? They are kind of embarrassing to be honest. 

Yeah I’ll expunge the records- meet me out back tonight. $1,000, all in $20’s. Make sure no one follows you.  

[PrinceFrederickWx]

This was as of midnight, and will likely have additional snowfall.

@MN Transplant is barely ahead- just a bit more at IAD will put @RodneyS in #1, while a bit more at DCA may keep MN in the lead for now.

@WEATHER53 is up to 3rd now.

[Roger Smith]

I have also updated my various tables, the RIC-oriented tracker was posted Dec 12, DCA-oriented Jan 13, snowfall required Jan 14 (all on page 5 of thread), and a more recent update of top ten snowfall required plus "one storm club" on page seven which is updated ... the one storm club info remains the same because I shaved the small amounts reported yesterday off the hypothetical storm so the results after that have not been altered. 

Some time later in the contest I will move my tables towards the current discussion but with these small changes nothing much has changed in those tables. 

Looking at the current GFS run you can see potential for more than 10" of snow in total towards the end of the period, but of course that's often scaled back to small amounts closer to the time. I really don't think anyone down the table is really out of contention yet though, the bottom five might be perhaps. I ran this program on my excel file to see what ranges of snowfall might be good for various forecasts. The program uses ratios of 1.0, 0.8, 1.2 and 0.4 for the four locations (in order, BWI, DCA, IAD, RIC). So for example, there could be 10, 8, 12 and 4 inches additional snowfall. Or there could be any other multiple. This is how it works out as to who wins the contest (but of course the actual snowfall might not follow that ratio) when you add various multiples to the existing snowfalls. I tested for each increase of one inch at BWI and various other amounts by ratio. Then I identified the break points. 

(1) From a very small increase to BWI 2.9" RodneyS maintains a lead. (RodneyS currently in second to MNT but small amounts using my ratios would change 1st and 2nd).

(2) Around 3" BWI weather 53 and stormPC are almost tied, but stormPC edges ahead after 3.2" and holds a lead until BWI reaches almost 8" ... however from 7 to 8 inches at BWI, there is a virtual four-way tie with PrinceFrederickwx, NorthArlington101 and Millvillewx all within 0.2" of stormPC and each other at various points. 

(3) NorthArlington101 holds a lead from about BWI 9" to 13.5" then both NorthBaltiZen and mappy edge ahead, with mappy in the lead around 15 inches for BWI (and the ratios etc).

(4) From 15 to 18 inches, mappy, cobalt and OnceinaLifetime2009 are all close to the lead then by 20" BWI, Once is well out in front, but is caught by southMDwatcher around 22.2" BWI.

(5) At amounts greater than 25" budice and then winterwxluvr come into lead positions, and by 35 to 40 inches it would be the few even higher forecasts winning out. 

All of the above shows that storm ratio will be important as various station to station ratios will eliminate large numbers of the field from contention. Of course, your best bet is to hit your numbers right on, whatever ratios that might require. (sorry, negative ratios will not verify).