Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Thanks for updating the standings!  @EastCoast NPZ Enjoy your last days in the lead...February be rockin’  

I wouldn't get your hopes too high just yet.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

And, it's a God-damn embarrassment that my yard is 3 inches behind DCA.  I swear.....

[nj2va]

10 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

And, it's a God-damn embarrassment that my yard is 3 inches behind DCA.  I swear.....

That will change.  You’ll soon be 13 inches behind...

[aldie 22]

5th place with a bullet 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

5th place with a bullet 

Actually you're in 7th - @Roger Smith seems to have made a typo with your departure for RIC.

Here's the top ten:

 

 

 

[aldie 22]

Just now, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Actually you're in 7th - @Roger Smith seems to have made a typo with your departure for RIC.

Here's the top ten:

 

 

 

#7 with a sad face

 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

@Roger Smith

I'm seeing a few mistakes in your spreadsheet- looks like you missed a few edits people made at the last minute.

[Roger Smith]

Okay, will check it out, starting with Leesburg04. Send me a PM just names if you have a moment, I can check it faster if I know where to look. 

Have checked your top ten and fixed leesburg04 and a small error for biodhokie which did not affect placement in the table (0.3 error). Both of these errors were in my math in the departures and not in the raw data entry so I haven't found anything to edit yet in the basic tables, just that last one I worked out. But if you're aware of any other errors, let me know. I am going back over the basic data entry first before I check the standings table that I published. 

[Stormpc]

I'm right where I need to be ro grab another title. Never want to be out front at the halfway point. You never want to leave a past champion lurking. I'm pretty sure I'll probably win this again. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Okay, will check it out, starting with Leesburg04. Send me a PM just names if you have a moment, I can check it faster if I know where to look. 

Have checked your top ten and fixed leesburg04 and a small error for biodhokie which did not affect placement in the table (0.3 error). Both of these errors were in my math in the departures and not in the raw data entry so I haven't found anything to edit yet in the basic tables, just that last one I worked out. But if you're aware of any other errors, let me know. I am going back over the basic data entry first before I check the standings table that I published. 

I just checked your entire list against my spreadsheet and everything you have looks correct now. 

[Roger Smith]

Okay, that's because I corrected a few errors, you were right but it was all my math that created them. Just about done checking using a calculator so it should be good. If we get more snow later, I will check those against a calculator instead of trying to do them in my head. Found a few that were just slightly off so the order in my table was still okay. Thanks for looking. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

42 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

I'm right where I need to be ro grab another title. Never want to be out front at the halfway point. You never want to leave a past champion lurking. I'm pretty sure I'll probably win this again. 

I agree you're in a good spot in my opinion- you went relatively low at BWI compared to the other airports and you still have a cushion for additional accumulations at all four locations.

[George BM]

Need Richmond and Salisbury to win bigly with training HECSs while we watch and cheer happily for them. Perhaps when we get into the potential vodka cold period at the end of the month? 

[aldie 22]

5 hours ago, George BM said:

Need Richmond and Salisbury to win bigly with training HECSs while we watch and cheer happily for them. Perhaps when we get into the potential vodka cold period at the end of the month? 

The top 3 have departures due to going low and are already below the airport total for the most part...better hope no more snow because your departure grows..I like having room for more snow on January 16th.

[George BM]

5 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

The top 3 have departures due to going low and are already below the airport total for the most part...better hope no more snow because your departure grows..I like having room for more snow on January 16th.

True. Just as long as we don't end up anywhere near:

IAD: 58.1"

BWI: 53.7"

DCA: 35.1"

RIC: 25.7"

SBY: 27.8"

That'd be disastrous. 

[Roger Smith]

I updated the table of snowfalls required from amounts reported in this recent event (0.9" BWI, 1.0" DCA, 1.8" IAD).

The table is back a page now, here's the amounts still required in much reduced print size if you want to see them right away. 

Note, I backed this work up with an excel file, the only possible source of error now would be if I have entered anyone's predictions incorrectly.

 

SNOWFALL CONTEST AMOUNTS STILL REQUIRED

(entries in brackets = amounts now in excess of season to date)

Forecaster _____ Nov date _____ BWI ___ DCA ___ IAD ___ RIC _____ Total dep

Snow to date __ 18 Jan ____ 9.2 ___ 12.7 ___ 15.4 __ 13.0

 

EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 _______ 1.7 ___ (6.2) ___ (4.3) __ (4.3) _____ 16.5

Bristow Wx _________ 1 _______ 4.6 ___ (6.0) ___ (2.8) __ (4.3) _____ 17.7 

MN Transplant _____ 28 _______ 8.6 ___ 1.5 _____ 4.2 ___ (5.2) _____ 19.5

supernovasky _______ 9 _______10.8 ___ (1.7) ___ 3.6 ___ (4.0) _____ 20.1

RodneyS __________ 21 ______ 11.1 ___ 1.2 ____ 8.2 ____ 0.3 ______ 20.8 

biodhokie __________ 8 ______ 12.1 ___ 5.1 ____ 2.7 ____ 1.5 ______ 21.4

leesburg 04 _________1 ______ 12.8 ___(0.7)____ 7.6 ____(2.0) _____ 23.1 

Weather53 _________21 _____  12.0 ___ 3.8 ____ 6.7 ____ 1.7 ______ 24.2

Olafminesaw _______25 ______ 10.2 ___ 4.6 ____ 8.1 ____(3.2) _____ 26.1

Stormpc ___________26 ______10.7 ___ 4.0 ____ 9.2 ____ 4.2 ______ 28.1

nw Baltimore wx ___ 10 ______  12.8 ___ 3.3 ____ 9.6 ____(5.0) _____ 30.7

Bob Chill __________ 27 ______ 16.8 ___ 3.3 ___ 13.6 ____ 1.0 ______ 34.7

Prince Frederick Wx _ 1 _______ 15.3 ___ 5.0 ___ 12.4 ____ 4.1 ______ 36.8

WinterWxLuvr ______ 8 ______ 13.8 ___ 5.3 ___ 16.6 ____ (2.0) _____ 37.7

dmillz25 ____________1 ______ 19.8 ___ 6.3 ____ 9.6 ____(2.0) _____ 37.7

Chris78 ____________ 1 ______ 17.5 ___ 5.7 ___ 13.2 ____ 1.9 ______ 38.3

Thanatos_I_Am ____ 30 ______ 18.4 ___ 5.6 ___ 10.4 ____ (5.5) _____ 39.9

Grothar of Herndon _ 30 ______ 16.5 ___ 5.6 ___ 13.7 ____ 6.2 ______ 42.0

MillvilleWx __________1 ______ 18.2 ___ 8.4 ___ 14.1 ____ 2.0 ______ 42.7

cae ______________ 30 ______ 18.4 ___ 9.1 ___ 15.9 ____(0.3)______ 43.7

Gopper ___________ 15 ______ 19.6 ___ 5.0 ___ 17.9 ____ 2.5 ______ 45.0

Gramax Refugee ____27 ______ 20.3 ___ 4.2 ___ 16.6 ____ 4.2 ______ 45.3

Wonderdog ________ 9 _______17.8 ___ 3.3 ___ 17.6 ____ 7.0 ______ 45.7

NorthArlington101 ___ 1 ______ 16.5 ___10.1 ___ 16.8 ____ 3.0 ______ 46.4

Yoda _____________ 27 ______ 20.4___ 9.1 ___ 17.5 ____ 1.1 ______ 48.1

WxWatcher007 _____30 ______ 19.7 ___ 8.4 ___ 17.1 ____ 3.4 ______ 48.6

mattie g __________ 28 ______ 21.4 ___ 8.4 ___ 23.3 ____ 0.9 ______ 54.0

Prestige Worldwide __27 ______ 21.8___10.3 ___ 19.6 ____ 2.8 ______ 54.5

North Balti Zen ______5 ______ 19.6 ___ 8.4 ___ 20.3 ____ 6.6 ______ 54.9

 

___ Consensus ____ median ___ 21.4___10.0 ___ 19.6 ____ 4.0 ______ 55.0

 

Shadowzone _______ 14 ______ 22.5___11.4 ___ 20.3 ____ 3.8 ______ 58.0

LP08 ______________ 5 ______ 25.2 ___ 7.0 ___ 27.2 ____ 0.3 ______ 59.7

WxUSAF ___________ 5 ______ 22.3 ___10.0 ___ 19.8 ____ 8.1 _____ 60.2

mappy _____________5 ______ 22.8___12.3 ___ 19.6 ____ 6.0 ______ 60.7

George BM ________ 15 ______ (7.5) __(11.3) __ (12.4) __ 29.7 _____ 60.9

Sparky ____________ 2 ______ 24.8___12.3 ___ 23.6 ____ 1.0 ______ 61.7

BTRwx'sThanksGiving_12 _____ 24.8___11.3 ___ 22.6 ____ 4.0 ______ 62.7

T. August _________ 21 ______ 26.8___10.2 ___ 12.1 ____16.2______ 65.3

Cobalt ____________ 30 ______ 24.0___14.2 ___ 24.0 ____ 3.8 ______ 66.0

clskinsfan _________ 20 ^ 1 ___28.3___14.8 ___ 21.1 ____ 5.5 ______ 69.7

OnceinaLifetime2009_ 28 ______20.9___14.0 ___ 29.1 ____ 6.9 ______ 70.9

HighStakes _________ 6 ______ 28.2___11.8 ___ 25.7 ____ 7.0 ______ 72.7

ravensrule _________12 ______ 28.8___17.3 ___ 24.6 ____ 2.0 ______ 72.7

psuhoffman ________ 1 ______ 29.8___15.3 ___ 21.6 ____ 7.0 ______ 73.7

C. A. P. E. __________1 ______ 29.3___17.6 ___ 20.4 ____ 7.1 ______ 74.4

Roger Smith _______ 26 ^ 1___ 34.6___16.5 ___ 27.1 ____ 8.0 ______ 86.2

JakkelWx _________ 30 ______ 30.8___22.3 ___ 26.6 ___ 11.0 ______ 90.7

GATECH __________ 1 _______ 35.7___23.0 ___ 32.1 ____ 1.3 ______ 92.1

southMDwatcher ___ 20 _______34.6___18.4 ___ 32.5 ____ 7.7 ______ 93.2

budice2002  _______ 14 ______ 32.8___18.3 ___ 30.6 ____13.0 ______ 94.7

weatherCCB _______ 16 ______ 37.6___14.7 ___ 34.2 ____10.0 ______ 96.5

snowgolfbro _______ 10 ______ 37.8___17.3 ___ 36.6 ____ 5.0 ______ 96.7

nj2va _____________ 1 _______39.5___16.5 ___ 44.5 ____ 5.9 ______106.4

SnowLuvrDude _____30 ______ 39.4___24.4 ___ 37.0 ____ 8.7 ______109.5

showmethesnow ___ 27 ______ 40.8___21.3 ___ 38.6 ___ 11.0 ______ 111.7

tplbge ____________16 _______43.8___21.3 ___ 33.6 ___ 16.0 ______114.7

wxdude64 ________ 13 _______46.6___25.7 ___ 42.0 ___ 13.1 ______127.4

osfan24 ___________ 7 _______45.1 __33.5 ___ 40.5 ___ 18.3 ______ 137.4

AFewUnivBelowN ___ 1 _______55.8 __27.3 ___ 40.6 ___ 15.0 ______ 138.7

RIC Airport ________ 1 _______53.3 __33.3 ___ 46.5 ___ 19.2 ______ 152.3

__________________________________________________________

[SnowLuvrDude]

@Roger Smith, much appreciate your contributions to this contest. However, the amounts included on your table appear to be way off from our actual predictions. Mine, for example, should be the following: 

BWI: 48.6

DCA: 37.1

IAD: 52.4

RIC: 21.7

Tiebreaker SBY: 24.2

Just thought I let you know. Keep it up!

 

[Roger Smith]

The table is how much more snow you need, so it's consistent with your forecast as you quoted it. 

[SnowLuvrDude]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The table is how much more snow you need, so it's consistent with your forecast as you quoted it. 

Oh, didn’t know. My bad.

[EastCoast NPZ]

With the next several cutters on tap and being served, followed by the TPV relocating to the lower OH valley and suppressing storms to the ICZ, my victory is all but locked up.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Totals so far:

BWI: 9.2"

DCA: 12.7"

IAD: 15.4"

RIC: 13.0"

Top ten:

[PrinceFrederickWx]

As you can see the leaderboard is very close- we're getting to the point now where even a cartopper will start changing things up, as Bristow's and NPZ's negative departures will start reaching everyone else's positives.

@EastCoast NPZ needs to pray for a shutout and @BristowWx needs a good event at BWI that screws everyone else.

IMHO @RodneyS @biodhokie @WEATHER53 and @Stormpc are looking like major contenders as we move forward.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I should also point out- on my top ten spreadsheets: 

A negative departure means you have forecasted below what the airport currently has. If you have a negative departure listed, you do not want to see additional snow fall at that location as you will only get worse.

A positive departure means you have forecasted above what the airport currently has. If you have a positive departure listed, you do want to see additional snow fall at that location as your score will improve.

[EastCoast NPZ]

36 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

As you can see the leaderboard is very close- we're getting to the point now where even a cartopper will start changing things up, as Bristow's and NPZ's negative departures will start reaching everyone else's positives.

@EastCoast NPZ needs to pray for a shutout and @BristowWx needs a good event at BWI that screws everyone else.

IMHO @RodneyS @biodhokie @WEATHER53 and @Stormpc are looking like major contenders as we move forward.

I dont need to pray.  I just need for the mid Atlantic winter to do what it does best......  not snow.  

[Roger Smith]

Reality has passed the following numbers of forecasts:

BWI _ 1 forecast surpassed.

DCA _ 5 forecasts surpassed.

IAD _ 3 forecasts surpassed.

RIC _ 12 forecasts surpassed. 

and I think SBY has passed one of 55 who chose it,  LYH has not passed any of its three forecasts.

 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Several minor events coming this week- I will be posting an update late evening on Sat., Feb. 2, once it all shakes out.

[nj2va]

Seems like there’ll be changes on the leaderboard after today.

[showmethesnow]

 

  On 11/6/2018 at 3:24 PM, showmethesnow said:

First Guess:

BWI: 47
DCA: 32
IAD: 52
RIC: 23

Tiebreaker (SBY ): 21

Woof! Woof!

******************************

Second Guess: (aprox. Nov 12th)

First Call: (aprox. Nov 19th)

Second Call: (aprox. Nov 26th)

Final Call: 

BWI: 50
DCA: 34
IAD: 54
RIC: 24

Tiebreaker (SBY ): 17

**************************************************************************************

 

@PrinceFrederickWx: So Showme, scoreboard looks a little rough for you and your team and you are entering the final stretch. Any thoughts after the win today?

Showme: I liked what I saw today. But we are still not there yet. So we need to take this one snow at a time. And as long as there is time on the clock we are still in the game.

PrinceFrederickWx: How have you felt about your teams performance up to this point?

Showme: Well Prince, we just haven't executed up to this point. Nino has been a no-show, PAC is giving us crappy field position and the NAO keeps fumbling the hand off from the WAR. But we are giving it our all and I am proud of my team. 

PrinceFrederickWx: Have you seen any positives up to this point?

Showme: Well if it wasn't for the AO we would be packing up and heading home at this point. They have played a very good game and there is no reason to believe they will falter moving forward. Have to give some credit to the sub-tropical jet as well because they have had their moments. But this is a game where we need to hit on all cylinders and we just haven't done it.

PrinceFrederickWx: Any comments on your opponent?

Showme: We have to give then credit, Mid-Atlantic Winter Wx is always a tough team to beat. They always walk into here with a swagger which is well earned and justified. You have to bring your A-game if you expect to beat them.

PrinceFrederickWx: Notice that your fans have been somewhat boisterous?

Showme: Yeah, yeah, have to love them. Of course you have your drunks and belligerents, what team doesn't after all, but for the most part they are our man off the bench. They are what will help drive us to victory.

PrinceFrederickWx: Any final thoughts?

Showme: Well yeah. If we have any hope of winning this one we need a more explosive offense with a KU here and there. This nickle and dimeing just won't do it. We need the NAO to step up it's game with maybe a little help from the 50/50. PAC needs to show up and the subtropical jet needs to give us a boost here and there. And they and the coaches are telling it's all coming together, in about two weeks. Still very winnable so don't count us out just yet.

PrinceFrederickWx: Showme, thank you for your time and I wish you and your team the best.

Showme: Anytime Prince, I will see you after our victory. <mumble, mumble, 'were screwed', mumble, mumble, 'dam PAC', mumble, mumble, 'need to fire the NAO coach', mumble, mumble>

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Ok, I have time for a quick update inb4 the afternoon squall. Our new leader is @MN Transplant

 

[MN Transplant]

4 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Ok, I have time for a quick update inb4 the afternoon squall. Our new leader is @MN Transplant

 

Well, I sure as hell am not going to be rooting for it to stop snowing.  I hope I lose as badly as possible!