November discussion

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well now it is kind of cool that we still have paper copies hanging around the office, photocopied original coop log but still.

The 30th was transposed as -17 7 25, the high of 7 was crossed out and annotated 25. That's because the low the day before was 25. So either the 29th or the 30th is wrong. The mean temp for the 28th was actually 25, which makes me wonder if that accidentally got transposed into the low for the 29th.

All the regional newpapers at the time talk about how temps hovered near zero. "Monday was a fearful day. It had snowed some just before, and a high wind made one of the worst days known for years. Tuesday morning the thermometer marked a dozen degrees below zero, and this was not in our vicinity alone, but all over New England that it was very cold." That's from MPV.

Middleton, CT was 45 12 9 -1, which is wrong because you can't get that low of 12 and a high of 9 without missing some ob.

PWM was 35 5 6 -6

NYC was 46 14 14 5

So really CON seems more likely to have been 7 than 25 on the 30th.

Ha. Good stuff. 7F would absolutely shatter the November low max record. Can something like that be corrected in the record or is there too much red tape?

 

The more I compare BOS and CON the more I see potential errors with that late Nov/early Dec cold snap. Maybe there were a few errors transposing in that timeframe?

[ORH_wxman]

Lots of early worry in here. You realize that two weeks from today is December 8th, right? 

[SnoSki14]

44 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d say late December at least. Weeklies look pretty poor in the long range. Even if those features are transient, they aren’t clearing out probably until January.

I'm not sure what can be trusted right now. Less than a week ago everyone thought we'd be getting hammered in early December. 

Probably best to take things a week at a time. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lots of early worry in here. You realize that two weeks from today is December 8th, right? 

Early season jitters. We’ll right the ship. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Early season jitters. We’ll right the ship. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

‘Imagine if that storm was along the BM with arctic air and it happenned in Jan instead of Sep’.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Early season jitters. We’ll right the ship. 

I mean, yeah, dec 1-5 doesn't look as good as it did a week ago but that's awfully early still. We've already been spoiled by big snow on Nov 15th followed by this extreme cold so I think that is getting everyone the feeling that we're into deep winter already. It's a natural reaction. But climo right now is still like 44F at ORH. That's at 1000 feet in interior MA so for most of everyone else it's several degrees warmer. 

The looks could be totally serviceable by December 10th. We don't know. Week 3 didn't look good on the weeklies...which kind of sucks, but they also looked like a torch for thanksgiving  week too. Long range has really been struggling the past few weeks so I'd definitely let it play out.  

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

‘Imagine if that storm was along the BM with arctic air and it happenned in Jan instead of Sep’.

Not happenin' James.

[ineedsnow]

Parts of IOWA  just went from over a foot of snow to nothing now on the NAM . Huge bust for some out in the Midwest...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, yeah, dec 1-5 doesn't look as good as it did a week ago but that's awfully early still. We've already been spoiled by big snow on Nov 15th followed by this extreme cold so I think that is getting everyone the feeling that we're into deep winter already. It's a natural reaction. But climo right now is still like 44F at ORH. That's at 1000 feet in interior MA so for most of everyone else it's several degrees warmer. 

The looks could be totally serviceable by December 10th. We don't know. Week 3 didn't look good on the weeklies...which kind of sucks, but they also looked like a torch for thanksgiving  week too. Long range has really been struggling the past few weeks so I'd definitely let it play out.  

Early season snows always give us a false sense of continuous winter, expectations raised, then climo shows its face....and panic overwhelms reason. 

[ORH_wxman]

I wonder if that strong WWB on the euro ensembles is screwing a bit with the long range...giving the model the impression of a lot of east based forcing. It's by far the most aggressive in pushing the MJO RMM into phase 3/4. Other guidance is way more subdued. 

[ScituateWX]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wonder if that strong WWB on the euro ensembles is screwing a bit with the long range...giving the model the impression of a lot of east based forcing. It's by far the most aggressive in pushing the MJO RMM into phase 3/4. Other guidance is way more subdued. 

WWB?

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ha. Good stuff. 7F would absolutely shatter the November low max record. Can something like that be corrected in the record or is there too much red tape?

 

The more I compare BOS and CON the more I see potential errors with that late Nov/early Dec cold snap. Maybe there were a few errors transposing in that timeframe?

We can enter a correction, but we need to argue why it should be changed and even then I have no idea how long a change would actually take.

The November 1875 Monthly Weather Review has a low hooking across IA and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence being responsible for the cold shot. 

The PWM daily observer journal from that month states snow squalls arrived at noon on the 29th. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Let’s stay with November pattern 

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We can enter a correction, but we need to argue why it should be changed and even then I have no idea how long a change would actually take.

The November 1875 Monthly Weather Review has a low hooking across IA and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence being responsible for the cold shot. 

The PWM daily observer journal from that month states snow squalls arrived at noon on the 29th. 

Sounds like busy work for a student intern.

[mahk_webstah]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

 

Yeah it looks like this one is going to end up more on the snow side for some of us in NNE/CNE, Been a cold month to boot here as well as I sit typing in the woods at 10F. Lol

 

I was relieved this morning that we were double digits and actually dressed down for the morning constitutional walk in the woods with the dog.  12 felt good!   Strange November...

[OSUmetstud]

40 minutes ago, ScituateWX said:

WWB?

Westerly wind burst. (ENSO tropical forcing stuff)

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lots of early worry in here. You realize that two weeks from today is December 8th, right? 

Thank you.  Sheer panic has ensued for those NYC south and you can feel the surge coming into SNE.  Meanwhile not too far north I just walked through 8-10" of powdery compacted snow in the woods at 12 degrees and contemplated whether tomorrow's rain might just soak in and refreeze, creating a base with a fresh dump on top in 2 days - in NOVEMBER!

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

 

 

Yeah it looks like this one is going to end up more on the snow side for some of us in NNE/CNE, Been a cold month to boot here as well as I sit typing in the woods at 10F. Lol

 

Deer gonna spot that movement?  They've been moving, just not where I've been at the time.  Did hear a red squirrel chatter, 1st time all season.  I think the cold has kept them holed up and raiding their larder.  November temp now 6.8° BN, would need to be 10-12° AN tomorrow thru the 30th to avoid being my coldest Novie here.

GYX discussion had the Tuesday storm pounding the foothills - too early to be in the forecast jackpot.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Thank you.  Sheer panic has ensued for those NYC south and you can feel the surge coming into SNE.  Meanwhile not too far north I just walked through 8-10" of powdery compacted snow in the woods at 12 degrees and contemplated whether tomorrow's rain might just soak in and refreeze, creating a base with a fresh dump on top in 2 days - in NOVEMBER!

I had 9 straight days of snow pack in mid November. So it’s been a great stretch for interior SNE. That said you are one to wring your hands when there’s 2-3 week snowless periods during winter and look to WPC discussions for optimism , which is what we are now looking at in SNE. And that leads us up into Xmas. We can hope things change like they may in mid Dec. But there’s a legit reason to be a bit down and depressed in SNE, as we are set to lose the next 2-3 weeks of winter 

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I had 9 straight days of snow pack in mid November. So it’s been a great stretch for interior SNE. That said you are one to wring your hands when there’s 2-3 week snowless periods during winter and look to WPC discussions for optimism , which is what we are now looking at in SNE. And that leads us up into Xmas. We can hope things change like they may in mid Dec. But there’s a legit reason to be a bit down and depressed in SNE, as we are set to lose the next 2-3 weeks of winter 

Lol climo is a bitch, winter doesn’t start until mid Dec. 

[NorEastermass128]

Winter starts closer to Jan 1 on the coast. Maybe we get a rogue event that melts two days later. 

[mahk_webstah]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I had 9 straight days of snow pack in mid November. So it’s been a great stretch for interior SNE. That said you are one to wring your hands when there’s 2-3 week snowless periods during winter and look to WPC discussions for optimism , which is what we are now looking at in SNE. And that leads us up into Xmas. We can hope things change like they may in mid Dec. But there’s a legit reason to be a bit down and depressed in SNE, as we are set to lose the next 2-3 weeks of winter 

Well I certainly am know to panic, but that is usually mid winter.    I don't think you have lost the next 3 weeks though.  I think you are jumping the gun.  And even if you do lose the next 3 weeks, you've had 1.5 weeks of deep winter in November, and 3 weeks from now it will be mid-December.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol climo is a bitch, winter doesn’t start until mid Dec. 

Winter starts Dec 1 and this year it started in November 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well I certainly am know to panic, but that is usually mid winter.    I don't think you have lost the next 3 weeks though.  I think you are jumping the gun.  And even if you do lose the next 3 weeks, you've had 1.5 weeks of deep winter in November, and 3 weeks from now it will be mid-December.

The problem is, March is no longer a winter month and February’s have been prone to be torch months lately. That gives most just a month of winter....troubling. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Well I certainly am know to panic, but that is usually mid winter.    I don't think you have lost the next 3 weeks though.  I think you are jumping the gun.  And even if you do lose the next 3 weeks, you've had 1.5 weeks of deep winter in November, and 3 weeks from now it will be mid-December.

Impressive storm on the Euro, blue bomb with fron from .8 to 1.1 w/e in the Berks  Greens to 1.5 in Brian’s area to Dryslot Jeff, Tamarack. Tight tight rain snow line, impressive dynamics might suddenly drag that to the coast in SNH SWmaine and possibly far NE Mass. Great storm to watch develop. Have to watch that dryslot as just on the other side will be getting smoked. Look forward to tracking it.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Winter starts Dec 1 and this year it started in November 

Not what your climo says but if you think it ,ok

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The problem is, March is no longer a winter month and February’s have been prone to be torch months lately. That gives most just a month of winter....troubling. 

Did you sleep through last March. March is half winter, like the 12 to 20 inches we had . Winter climo for the non coast from Pike South excluding the Berks in NW CT is a Dec 15th to March 15 th. 

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Winter starts Dec 1 and this year it started in November 

Coldest 2 week Nov period ever, highly anomalous. Never seen by anyone alive. I suspect you worry way way too much. Take Wills advice

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Did you sleep through last March. March is half winter, like the 12 to 20 inches we had . Winter climo for the non coast from Pike South excluding the Berks in NW CT is a Dec 15th to March 15 th. 

To your point, the normal accumulation in the first 15 days of March > than the accumulation in the first 15 days of December at BOS (same at BDL and ORH).