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November discussion


weathafella

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As @OceanStWx had mused a few days ago, still looks like a flash over from rain to wet snow for portions of the NNE mountains...especially the NW flow spots where the cold air can come in quicker along with some added cooling and lift enhancement from orographic ascent.

RGEM was one of the more bullish models.  Congrat's Jay Peak.

dkISNPH.png

 

Most bullish (aside from the 3km WRF/NAM which always seems to go bonkers) was the new test GFS.  Regular GFS had some light coating to 2" for the northern 'Dacks/Greens/Whites.  

nHRy5M0.png

 

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

As @OceanStWx had mused a few days ago, still looks like a flash over from rain to wet snow for portions of the NNE mountains...especially the NW flow spots where the cold air can come in quicker along with some added cooling and lift enhancement from orographic ascent.

RGEM was one of the more bullish models.  Congrat's Jay Peak.

dkISNPH.png

 

Most bullish (aside from the 3km WRF/NAM which always seems to go bonkers) was the new test GFS.  Regular GFS had some light coating to 2" for the northern 'Dacks/Greens/Whites.  

nHRy5M0.png

 

Congrats jspin.

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Get your arc ready.

564AF822-BD4F-46DD-ACFB-94EB0D08312F.jpeg

95904B6A-0A50-41D5-AFF5-6D2BA8A1F6BC.jpeg

Great.  I’m getting my qpf.

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15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This has congrats Stowe written all over it 4 to 8 above 2k

Can't say that's out of the question, this time of year the QPF can usually be there with the moist low levels in NW flow (especially after recent rains)...but will the temps really crash enough to get decent flakes instead of graupel and wet grains/needles?  Probably a high-elevation gradient from decent to nothing.  I do favor lower elevations on the west side of the spine though from the localized cooling associated with the upslope flow.

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Kind of an ominous look to this thing right now actually. 

Supecells near the low over western NJ ... meanwhile the 00Z NAM grid pumps 33kt sustained over Logan near 15Z as its cutting west and dragging that same exit/entrance region right proper  

wonderin if cloaked spinners swarm

Sorry in that warm wedge

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That west -east extending band of heavy showers ripping through Connecticut and Rhode Island and moving actively north… It's almost like that's involved along a pseudo-warm boundary and as that pivots north of the area we may see yet even more dewpoint temperature llv southerly flow coming into the region and then will have to watch that trailing line could get interesting later on

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That west -east extending band of heavy showers ripping through Connecticut and Rhode Island and moving actively north… It's almost like that's involved along a pseudo-warm boundary and as that pivots north of the area we may see yet even more dewpoint temperature llv southerly flow coming into the region and then will have to watch that trailing line could get interesting later on

I see no reason for this to weaken as it comes through 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ryan just said he thinks it’ll weaken...he said can’t be sure..but feels it will.

Saw that.....just give me some flashes and loud booms and I'm all set....don't need the tree in the backyard falling on me while I'm sleeping.....save that for when I'm up and can brace myself lol

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