dryslot Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s always the first thing you worry about. You are shook! He has company............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 6 hours ago, LurkerBoy said: Yeah I'm confused, I really didn't think it was a full scale pattern change to AN/Pacific driven... Because we will lose the NAO blocking and gaining a good Pacific pattern. That’s what I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 45 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Thanks. Wanna hold onto the pack. I mean I feel generally very optimistic with the blocking that is starting to set up, especially given that those regimes tends to both last and to repeat. Hopefully no 2010 style disaster though. As long as we don't get another retro bomb that fills NNE for all of Jan-April with air that originates over the gulfstream. But either way, keep an eye on 11/27-28 timeframe Only the op run, but 12z GFS dumps 2" RA on my head from that one, on NE winds from a LP running up the CC canal. That odd scenario would require all the cold air be totally gone by then, which I have trouble believing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The 2nd one may not be that warm....euro sort of morphs into a 3rd event that could be bigger. But either way, keep an eye on 11/27-28 timeframe. Might end up being totally nothing, but it's been showing up off and on as a threat on different guidance. Long over due for an icing event in SNE; maybe Dec produces one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: That’s always the first thing you worry about. You are shook! PTNAOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 All the ensembles look great heading to December. Arguably EPS looks the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 NWS Taunton mentions snow accumulations likely from HYA eastward on Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Yeah Will is right. We’re gonna have to closely watch next week in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah Will is right. We’re gonna have to closely watch next week in SNE Still a low probability for SNE...but it's not out of the question by any stretch. Better shot obviously for NNE. There's almost two distinct systems. The first one is the least likely to be frozen on 11/27-28. But then another right on its heels is one to watch more closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Because we will lose the NAO blocking and gaining a good Pacific pattern. That’s what I meant. How do we lost the NAO blocking?. The NAO is still negative right through the period. Also, we have a strong Scan ridge causing blocking and Greenland blocking as well. All credit goes to Michael Ventrice on Twitter who posted this!. I notice it now its gone but still high heights way up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 18 minutes ago, leo2000 said: How do we lost the NAO blocking?. The NAO is still negative right through the period. Also, we have a strong Scan ridge causing blocking and Greenland blocking as well. All credit goes to Michael Ventrice on Twitter who posted this!. I notice it now its gone but still high heights way up north. Beyond my friend. Don’t get your panties in a bunch. It’s not a bad thing to get a Pacific dump of cold. -NAO is good for keeping lows to south but air masses can be marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 This has been quite the mid Novie stretch. 11/11 36.8 26.6 0.00 0.0 0 11/12 44.5 24.3 0.00 0.0 0 11/13 37.6 29.3 1.40 0.4 0 11/14 29.3 14.7 T T 0 11/15 27.1 14.3 0.10 1.3 1 11/16 33.2 23.7 0.37 3.0 4 11/17 42.8 29.7 0.00 0.0 4 11/18 34.1 26.0 T 0.1 2 11/19 33.1 28.8 0.04 0.7 2 11/20 31.9 29.1 0.50 7.5 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 It is going to warm up a bit next week, it is going to rain in a lot of New England. It is November for the love of God, deal with it! First half of December looks like it could be fun and yes we probably relax a bit after that before reload. We all tease about Grinch storms etc but I think mid to late December 3 day thaws with a cutter are generally the rule not the exception. Part of our normal climo perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 2 hours ago, leo2000 said: How do we lost the NAO blocking?. The NAO is still negative right through the period. Also, we have a strong Scan ridge causing blocking and Greenland blocking as well. All credit goes to Michael Ventrice on Twitter who posted this!. I notice it now its gone but still high heights way up north. Thankfully twitter saves us from losing the precious -nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 4 hours ago, weathafella said: All the ensembles look great heading to December. Arguably EPS looks the best. I’ll take our chances with the LR look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Will, Scott, take a look at the 18z RGEM, it is putting down 2-3" of snow and the event isn't done yet on the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 13 hours ago, mreaves said: Yeah, I've lived in NNE since I was 8 years old. If we held on to this snow pack all the way through, it would be unprecedented in my memory. I just ran the numbers using my data, and starting the winter snowpack here from this date (Nov 20th) would be fairly common – this would be 3 times in 13 years of data, so that’s once every 4 or 5 years. Note though, the current snowpack started on Nov 10th, and if that holds it would be 1.67 S.D. ahead of the mean. That should only happen about once every 20 years, but we’re probably getting just about “due” for one of these as the data set grows. Those numbers are for here along the spine of the Greens though, so the occurrence might be a bit less around here away from the spine. The thing is, if those are the odds here, the percent of seasons where the winter snowpack starts this early in areas farther south out of the mountains must be very small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Monday/Tuesday looks like a doozie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Mon-Tues has potential for where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Mon-Tues has potential for where? Green Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Mon-Tues has potential for where? This subforum. Bowling ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’ll take our chances with the LR look. OP runs hinting at an eastern ridge now with the blocking breaking down. Just look at the latest Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 I'll tell you what....mid week next week is exactly what I had envisioned with regard to cyclogenesis this season....watch that late bloomer, hook-and latter deal....if the general evolution remains the same, it will probably get going fast enough to nail ORH points east, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll tell you what....mid week next week is exactly what I had envisioned with regard to cyclogenesis this season....watch that late bloomer, hook-and latter deal....if the general evolution remains the same, it will probably get going fast enough to nail ORH points east, at least. Zeus loves Banana Highs From Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Steve, watch the evolution of that....how the incipient system is born predominately of the n stream....but look at the STJ eject a little node of energy into that n steam system at day 7. That is the essence of weak modoki el nino cyclogenesis, and is a blue print to our most severe of events. In a stronger el nino....the s steam would be dominant, and we would have a Miller A...decent system, but far less anomalous for us on average, and more room for things to go astray. We want a n stream masher with just a little "over the counter" s stream injection for that extra edge. That folks, is how we get 'er done....meteorological Mozart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Speed that evolution up 12-24 hours, and you have a n steam subsume near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: OP runs hinting at an eastern ridge now with the blocking breaking down. Just look at the latest Gfs. Glad we don’t take LR OP runs seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Glad we don’t take LR OP runs seriously. Unless it shows cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 23 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Unless it shows cold and snowy. LR snow shovels more easily since we can plan ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Yeah we may turn snowy early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.