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November discussion


weathafella

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53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be some sultan issues tonight where the line of shwrs/tstms develop. Will need to watch for SVR. Then tomorrow may get a fine like of shwrs/tstm as cold front passes through and winds rapidly increase behind the front. 

Nice little QLCS this morning across NY, but it's not really oriented all that well with the 0-3 km shear vector to favor mesos. Need that to change if we want to add to the New England tornado count.

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Nice little QLCS this morning across NY, but it's not really oriented all that well with the 0-3 km shear vector to favor mesos. Need that to change if we want to add to the New England tornado count.

Lets see if we can get winds to back a bit tomorrow morning. But yeah, might be more wind related vs mesos. Although some decent UH swaths on the mesos.

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The long range continues to excite! Despite some yo-yoing, it is active and there is a potent source region for cold. I have a feeling we'll have a traditional northeastern end-to-fall with big swings in temps and thread-the-needle opportunities. According to Michael Ventrice, however, LR modeling has been extremely volatile of late. 

We'll see! 

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I'm getting subdued and less excitable with age... perhaps premature by some.  

I just don't see 31 kts in the NAM grids as much more than some elevated white noise above the rafters. 

NAM numbers certainly are not the end-all be-all of metrics, duh.  But, ...winds are notoriously horribly handled.  Usually over-assessed.  Perhaps as a means to parry back-lash in the off-chance that it actually does over-perform (and sometimes it has ;) ) ... we get more watches and warnings than seems to verify. 

I may be full of sh!t there but...it does seem over the course of my personal experiences, I'm perhaps 10::1 for advisories::verification.  we'll see -.. 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm getting subdued and less excitable with age... perhaps premature by some.  

I just don't see 31 kts in the NAM grids as much more than some elevated white noise above the rafters. 

NAM number certainly are not the end-all be-all of metrics, duh.  But, ...winds are notoriously horribly handled.  Usually over-assessed.  Perhaps as a means to parry back-lash in the off-chance that it actually does over-perform (and sometimes it has ;) ) ... we get more watches and warnings than seems to verify

I may be full of sh!t there but...it does seem over the course of my personal experiences, that's I'm perhaps 10::1 for advisories::verification.  we'll see -.. 

You're not wrong there. 

But this is a bit of an odd event, where it's a 1-2 hour potential within a fairly ordinary background CAA wind event. Broadly speaking, if MOS is sustained at or above 20 kts, it'll be advisory gusts. But this event is likely happening between MOS hours. 

Of course wind is a bit of a crapshoot anyway. A couple weeks ago, we had a low end advisory event (peak gust anywhere was 48 mph at PWM) and had nearly 100,000 outages in ME. A few days later we had another CAA event (peak gust 40 mph) and barely 10,000 outages. 

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm getting subdued and less excitable with age... perhaps premature by some.  

I just don't see 31 kts in the NAM grids as much more than some elevated white noise above the rafters. 

NAM numbers certainly are not the end-all be-all of metrics, duh.  But, ...winds are notoriously horribly handled.  Usually over-assessed.  Perhaps as a means to parry back-lash in the off-chance that it actually does over-perform (and sometimes it has ;) ) ... we get more watches and warnings than seems to verify. 

I may be full of sh!t there but...it does seem over the course of my personal experiences, I'm perhaps 10::1 for advisories::verification.  we'll see -.. 

#LowT

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