November discussion

[78Blizzard]

14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Through 11/17:

BOS:  -0.6

ORH:  -2.3

PVD:  -0.7

BDL:  -1.9

All 4 a virtual lock for a subnormal November.

For those who believe in such forecasts, the Old Farmers predicted this area would be 4° above normal this month, lol.  Not off to a good start this year.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

-30 departures TDay over /under 

Cheap midnight highs.

[Ginx snewx]

54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah euro is trying to make next week interesting with that block. Airmass won't be fresh, but might be enough over interior. Prob more likely for NNE but can't rule out interior SNE yet. 

We watch closely 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Cheap midnight highs.

Probably 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Might not hit 20F here Thursday, unless it is around midnight.   

Then we relax temps a bit.  

[ma blizzard]

lets all agree to toss the 18z NAM .. similar run to 12z, maybe marginally better? 

[powderfreak]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

How come Snowman21 hasn't chimed in about the cold? Past out from excitement?

I still can't get over we had a daily mean temp of 13F by mid-November.  Only because of a cheap 20F midnight High was the reason the daily mean was as high as it was!  Daytime temps were low teens even in the valley.

Heck today is min of 13F, high of 28F...cold snowpack.  It might as well be January.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I still can't get over we had a daily mean temp of 13F by mid-November.  Only because of a cheap 20F midnight High was the reason the daily mean was as high as it was!  Daytime temps were low teens.

Single digits at the base on Thursday?

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I still can't get over we had a daily mean temp of 13F by mid-November.  Only because of a cheap 20F midnight High was the reason the daily mean was as high as it was!  Daytime temps were low teens even in the valley.

Heck today is min of 13F, high of 28F...cold snowpack.  It might as well be January.

Impressive and a great way to start.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Single digits at the base on Thursday?

Yeah below zero start to the day at home? If we can radiate some model runs have been showing negatives for MVL.  

Real impressive cold.  

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Impressive and a great way to start.

Love the big cold this time of year as it extends the winter season.  Below normal early and late season, near normal in mid-winter...that's how New England has a long winter.  

Excited that SNE has been right in the thick of it too now.  Good stuff.

[Ginx snewx]

Fall as it should be? Of yore

[powderfreak]

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It has been a very nice start. Not only that, but the medium to long range looks good too. It's great to march into winter with no big red flags flying. Hard not to really like where we all stand right now. 

The big thing too is that we aren't wasting the cold like seems to happen so often in November.  We've had winter weather events and cold temperatures.   I think that's a big part of it... if it was just cold stick season without the snow, it would likely just be annoying lol.

[DomNH]

18z NAM a hair less amped. Looks like a decent wet snow thump Rt. 2 north. 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, DomNH said:

18z NAM a hair less amped. Looks like a decent wet snow thump Rt. 2 north. 

 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, DomNH said:

18z NAM a hair less amped. Looks like a decent wet snow thump Rt. 2 north. 

Digging into the 3km NAM rime factors, there is definitely a threat for mixed precip along and just N of Route 2. It has that 2-5 number that is typical of heavily rimed flakes, with true mixed precip values down around the Pike and S. 

The MHT to PWM line and N looks like they're in a good spot for a nice snowfall.

[CoastalWx]

GFS looks pretty good still north of pike

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Digging into the 3km NAM rime factors, there is definitely a threat for mixed precip along and just N of Route 2. It has that 2-5 number that is typical of heavily rimed flakes, with true mixed precip values down around the Pike and S. 

The MHT to PWM line and N looks like they're in a good spot for a nice snowfall.

I must be near the northern edge of the mix...how does KASH look?

[DomNH]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Digging into the 3km NAM rime factors, there is definitely a threat for mixed precip along and just N of Route 2. It has that 2-5 number that is typical of heavily rimed flakes, with true mixed precip values down around the Pike and S. 

The MHT to PWM line and N looks like they're in a good spot for a nice snowfall.

Could be kind of high impact if it sticks to pavement. Either way the ugly oak leaf infested pack persists. 

[DomNH]

Yeah, GFS looks like a borderline warning event N of the Pike. 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I must be near the northern edge of the mix...how does KASH look?

Verbatim like a 2-3ish event, but a tickle south would put ASH in the advisory range. It currently has advisory snow from the Monadnocks through Dendrite (congrats) and along the ME coast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS lays down like a 5-spot here, but quick drop south...at least on the clown map...prob a little warm at 2m, though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Verbatim like a 2-3ish event, but a tickle south would put ASH in the advisory range. It currently has advisory snow from the Monadnocks through Dendrite (congrats) and along the ME coast.

Thanks.

 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS and euro in pretty good agreement. Kind of hard to discount them despite the consensus zonked solution of the mesos. 

[moneypitmike]

For those of us who like the TT maps that aren't coming out........do they GFS and EC deliver any goods to Maine or is it all a SNE deal?   Thanks.

[mahk_webstah]

Exciting to see WPC talking about big NAO and AO blocking setting up later in week into next week.  These big events often last for 4-6 weeks yes?  I would think the storm over the weekend would be borderline for many but that soon after the block would allow some fresher cold air to come in and a big storm toward month's end.  Once these blocks set up, shite starts to happen with the modelling.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks.

While snow accumulation maps are traditionally garbage, the nested NAM and the HRRR I believe are the only two models that explicitly forecast precip types, and therefore can distribute QPF into the correct accumulation.

So the NAM nest looks at the rime factor, and places a snow ratio on that based on the value. Most models snow is treated as 10:1 or Kuchera as long as the model supports snow or sleet. So the nested NAM may not be right, but the snow accumulation map is most realistic based on model output.

I should also say the Canadians do separate ptypes, and produce snow only output.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

For those of us who like the TT maps that aren't coming out........do they GFS and EC deliver any goods to Maine or is it all a SNE deal?   Thanks.

2" on the Euro, 5" on the GFS.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

2" on the Euro, 5" on the GFS.

Thanks, Jeff.  Ride the GFS.  It might not get me where I'm going but it's a better view.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Thanks, Jeff.  Ride the GFS.  It might not get me where I'm going but it's a better view.

NAM and RGEM were more inline with the GFS, Euro is the only model that keeps it further south.