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November discussion


weathafella

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34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Week 5 and week 6 do have some lower heights in AK so that needs to be watched. They try for some ridging too out west. To me, any signal is week after week 3 so it seems a little up in the air. 

EPS has been abysmal . They had coast to coast zonal flow and torch the last 2 weeks of Nov into Dec. They are gonna end up 100% wrong 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Couple weeks ago they were trying for a post mid month warmup, so yea out to week 3 about as far as we should trust.

Very true, this season the risks may be weighted colder versus warmer. And the EPS have not been that great, a total flip a few days back too per Ventrice.

Hopefully next time they show more solid indications.  Maybe still asking too much this far out. 

    

 

 

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Bit of a competing signal betwixt the EPS and American cluster as we move through the last ten days of the month.  

As of  yesterday (and it's really been trending longer than that as we know...) the American -based indexes are impressive in the AO and NAO... In fact, the Pacific isn't too bad (if you like cold)  either as it's WPO/EPO are both neutral negative; which combined with a strong -AO, ... that lop-over in respective domain spaces on whole is a cooler signal for mid latitudes over North America.  

The EPS looks more zonal over mid latitudes admittedly ...but I have not seen a hemispheric layout from that mean. The operational Euro has a strong ...albeit slightly east based -NAO ridge up there in the N Atl...  while the operational GFS has been plotting all over kingdom come but has it...

Regardless of source... live by the NAO die by the NAO ...That index has more episodes of turn-coat than it does successfully achieving whatever is modeled, positive or negative. So we'll see.  

But the AO signal is coherent in the blend. I suspect the WPO/EPO negative tendencies combined with the AO ...those are pretty dominating loading pattern indicators so ... the NAO is an interesting after-thought.

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

So much for a prolonged stretch of warm weather

NAO AO and EPO are going to be negative along with a favorable PNA in the near future

December is going to be a very interesting month with cold and snow chances

I still think we may be on the edge of moderation though. We may see the Pacific or Atlantic for a few days at least relax a bit. Overall though it’s a good look for so early. 

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not s good idea to lock in winter so early 

Only 1 nasty day of cold.

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KCON   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/13/2018  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16| SAT 17| SUN 18| MON 19| TUE 20|WED CLIMO
 N/X  21  34|  3  35| 24  36| 24  47| 25  43| 27  40| 18  32| 11 27 46
 TMP  23  22|  7  27| 29  31| 29  38| 28  37| 30  32| 21  22| 15      
 DPT  10   1| -2  12| 24  28| 23  27| 24  32| 26  23| 13   9|  8      
 CLD  PC  CL| CL  PC| OV  OV| PC  CL| PC  OV| OV  PC| OV  CL| CL      
 WND  12  22| 11   4|  7  10|  7  10|  3   6|  4   7| 17  20| 15      
 P12   8   2|  1   8| 90  70| 16  13| 22  46| 34  29| 27  20| 12 24 22
 P24       8|      8|     90|     20|     49|     43|     28|       33
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  3   2|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      4|      0|      1|      1|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   1|  0   0|  0   0|  1   0|  0      
 T24        |  2    |  0    |  1    |  1    |  1    |  1    |  1      
 PZP   0   0|  4   6| 35  33| 12   1| 13   7|  1   3|  4   5|  4      
 PSN  63  98| 96  94| 50  11| 22  11| 26  23| 17  31| 54  66| 67      
 PRS  17   0|  0   0| 15  24| 18  24| 23  27| 16  16| 10   3|  4      
 TYP   S   S|  S   S|  Z   Z| RS   R| RS  RS|  R  RS|  S   S|  S      
 SNW       0|      0|      4|      0|      0|      0|       |         
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