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November discussion


weathafella

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Dropping through the 30s here, but raining. Snowing I presume at 1300ft and up in the western part of the county in New London and Newbury.

Rain definitely had some grain to it between exit 22 and 23, was surprised it didn't flip earlier. But since there wasn't really any snow at all when I got here, I assume it flipped to snow just moments before. Snow is now dry and no longer wet and temp has remained at 33.1/32 since I got here about half hour ago.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I haven’t looked but my guess is you are also getting deep lift into the DGZ. You wouldn’t  have the cooling if it was ****ty snow growth.

Yeah agreed because it's some pretty solid dynamic cooling. 

Not too often you see the temp drop so much while the dew stays the same.

-RN started at 39/32 and then in the steady precip it was able to cool itself to 32/32 in about 90 minutes...especially with SE winds and no advection of drier or colder air, seems not too often we get that significant of dynamic cooling.  I figured it would've gone from 39/32 to like 36/35 or something.... but the column probably is isothermal for like 2,000ft right now.  It's not very cold in the elevations, even 32F at 2,100ft at Bolton.  Same temps as 750ft here.

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18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah agreed because it's some pretty solid dynamic cooling. 

Not too often you see the temp drop so much while the dew stays the same.

-RN started at 39/32 and then in the steady precip it was able to cool itself to 32/32 in about 90 minutes...especially with SE winds and no advection of drier or colder air, seems not too often we get that significant of dynamic cooling.  I figured it would've gone from 39/32 to like 36/35 or something.... but the column probably is isothermal for like 2,000ft right now.  It's not very cold in the elevations, even 32F at 2,100ft at Bolton.  Same temps as 750ft here.

If you limit WAA you can do that. You may be even draining ever so slightly lower Td air helping even more with the process. Eventually WAA will strengthen, but I’ve seen that happen a lot even down here. 

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Amazing how much of a role elevation played in this event. Been snowing all night but I only got an inch to show for it (cue the punch joke) but just came from the lodge at 1300' and was maybe 3-4", and I'm almost certain there's nothing at the valley floor at about 700'.  Credit to the models and technology. 

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GYX is showing rare excitement for Wednesday.   I have found (both now and when I lived up here 10 years ago) that they have much more measured AFD's than BOX.  Perhaps because their CWA is so much larger and varied than BOX's, and that BOX cover a much larger population.  Regardless, Wednesday sounds fun.

Winds will be ripping through the day on Wednesday as models
showing good alignment through 700 mb. May see one of the rare
times high wind warnings verify across the majority of the
forecast area. Strong mixing should easily bring down 50 mph
gusts and would not be surprised to see a few locations topping
60 mph. To add insult to injury...some of the coldest air of
the season will hold daytime highs well below normal. Highs
probably won`t get out of the 20s in the north. Downsloping
winds will help to boost temps in southern zones but highs will
only reach the lower to mid 30s.
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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

GYX is showing rare excitement for Wednesday.   I have found (both now and when I lived up here 10 years ago) that they have much more measured AFD's than BOX.  Perhaps because their CWA is so much larger and varied than BOX's, and that BOX cover a much larger population.  Regardless, Wednesday sounds fun.


Winds will be ripping through the day on Wednesday as models
showing good alignment through 700 mb. May see one of the rare
times high wind warnings verify across the majority of the
forecast area. Strong mixing should easily bring down 50 mph
gusts and would not be surprised to see a few locations topping
60 mph. To add insult to injury...some of the coldest air of
the season will hold daytime highs well below normal. Highs
probably won`t get out of the 20s in the north. Downsloping
winds will help to boost temps in southern zones but highs will
only reach the lower to mid 30s.

I think OceanSt made the long term guy  let their weenie fly free. 

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2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

GYX is showing rare excitement for Wednesday.   I have found (both now and when I lived up here 10 years ago) that they have much more measured AFD's than BOX.  Perhaps because their CWA is so much larger and varied than BOX's, and that BOX cover a much larger population.  Regardless, Wednesday sounds fun.


Winds will be ripping through the day on Wednesday as models
showing good alignment through 700 mb. May see one of the rare
times high wind warnings verify across the majority of the
forecast area. Strong mixing should easily bring down 50 mph
gusts and would not be surprised to see a few locations topping
60 mph. To add insult to injury...some of the coldest air of
the season will hold daytime highs well below normal. Highs
probably won`t get out of the 20s in the north. Downsloping
winds will help to boost temps in southern zones but highs will
only reach the lower to mid 30s.

 

No one asked but ... that's going to depend on the rate of intensification of that fast moving low pressure. 

The interaction with the northern stream as the system is moving through New England ...that is a phasing scenario - the timing of which is typically problematic.  How long it takes to coalescence whereby the system then is mechanically forced into a wild deepening rate ... it could take few hours longer .. effectively sparing the region.  Or, it could happen a few hours faster too... sure.  The 00z operational Euro was 'just in time' to get rapid deepening underway, which triggers the restorative wind/acceleration into the region ... (more NE). However, that was also a delayed trend compared to previous run.  

I only cite the Euro because folks seem to lean on that model more-so than than say the GGEM.  Anyway, the situation should be monitored (duh) but more so than usual, the models et all have been plotting an unusual feature with that eventual phased deep layer bomb up there.  The Euro in particular appears to actually model a 'sting jet' phenomenon N of Maine. That's afterward and not in time, however ... the fact that it's there is sort of suggestive of the system having potential.

 

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