November discussion

[weathafella]

11 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

 

Bears out my memory of skiing glue. There was also almost no snowmaking base due to the warm November. Wasn't 1998 and El Nino year? That winter was very warm.

A year earlier was el nino.   1998-99 was a big nina.  1997-98  was a super nino with a cold fall including good snows in November and December before the extreme nino overwhelmed the pattern.

[dendrite]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I see amazing cold rain events.

[MarkO]

NAM coming in colder, but still shows warm layer around 700. Looks like snow to sleet in the mountains, prolly finish as drizzle.

[MarkO]

I also heard last nights Euro favored a colder solution?

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I am not talking about Tuesday of next week, afterward, like in the second week of the runs the GFS shows, there are signs of a cold arctic Quebec, Canada high-pressure center with a southern stream system approaching it from the southwest.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I believe the snowpack from this weekend's storm and next Tuesday's storm system will lay down a foundation for a much colder airmass to support the third storm coming up the East Coast.

[weathafella]

 for you James!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I believe the RAINpack from this weekend's storm and next Tuesday's storm system will lay down a foundation for a much colder airmass to support the third storm coming up the East Coast.

Priceless

[dryslot]

And so it begins.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

It looks like the third storm is a potential miller B, clipper to a redeveloper, ensemble members aren't in total agreement, but that is reasonable this far out.

[Damage In Tolland]

Maybe elevated ice storms 

[WinterWolf]

52 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I believe the snowpack from this weekend's storm and next Tuesday's storm system will lay down a foundation for a much colder airmass to support the third storm coming up the East Coast.

Holy Sh*t  James....really???  By the time the time frame you're talking about is here, there probably won't even be a Third Storm.    Pump the brakes pal...you're gonna overload.  No snow for most of SNE for a while...especially so for the outer Cape!

[Great Snow 1717]

48 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

It looks like the third storm is a potential miller B, clipper to a redeveloper, ensemble members aren't in total agreement, but that is reasonable this far out.

Do you honestly think the pattern looks like one that is going to deliver an early start to winter for SNE? Meaning an early start that lasts for awhile.

[MaineJayhawk]

James is in mid-season form 

[MarkO]

Even if we do get snow in the mtn's Friday and next week, I'm not sure it survives the warm-up Thanksgiving week. James, I don't know how you do it living on the outer Cape. That's literally the warmest/wettest place to be (barring ACK). More often than not (seems like way more often than not) you're dealing with rain and sloppy mess, especially this time of year with ocean temps in the low-mid 50's.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Keep fighting the good fight Jimmy. Don’t let the deebies rain on your weenie. 

[jbenedet]

Seems like Euro suffering from its “bury shortwaves in the SW” bias, given nature of this setup and big differences at H5 b/w it and the GFS early on. Either way longwave pattern does not look conducive to a wintry event for 90% of us. In terms of personal preferences, I’m excited for a big storm (rain or snow), which I still think is on the table...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Did the amazing storm vanish on the 12z?

[powderfreak]

Things very few on here care about, but the meso-models are surprisingly cold tomorrow evening for the Adirondacks, Greens, Whites, etc.  RGEM and NAM even want to snow into the NNE valleys for a good burst of QPF on the front end.  850s are surprisingly cold too.

If something like the NAM/WRF/RGEM panned out, could be more interesting than it seemed a day or two ago.

Need to see soundings as I suspect there's some marginal layer just above 850mb but it's got SFC temps of 33F widespread with this look. 

 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Did the amazing storm vanish on the 12z?

Nope.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Nope.

People fighting over sleds on black Friday. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

People fighting over sleds on black Friday. 

More like....................

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

More like....................

So, not that amazing?

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So, not that amazing?

Yeah, Strung out mess.

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, I'm not into low's going up the St Lawrence.

Not gonna lie, I'm scared that this new test GFS is going to take over for the old one.  

The test GFS has been by far the snowiest model for the past 3 days of model runs.  I'm not sure what the algorithm is but for three straight days, 4 runs a day, it has had next week's storm have a jackpot of 20+ inches.  

Some runs have even been over 30".  If this is what the GFS becomes, it's going to be a sh*tshow when every event is on crystal meth:

 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not gonna lie, I'm scared that this new test GFS is going to take over for the old one.  

The test GFS has been by far the snowiest model for the past 3 days of model runs.  I'm not sure what the algorithm is but for three straight days, 4 runs a day, it has had next week's storm have a jackpot of 20+ inches.  

Some runs have even been over 30".  If this is what the GFS becomes, it's going to be a sh*tshow when every event is on crystal meth:

 

I would eat my keyboard if i saw those totals, I think he was talking about the Black Friday storm after TG though.

[powderfreak]

12z GGEM gets 4-6" down to Tolland northward on the front end for next week's system.  RT 2 northward would be pasted with almost all snow (8"+).  

Still worth watching with the fringe models showing hope, lol.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think he was talking about the Black Friday storm after TG

Ahhh the Jimmy James storm lol.  Whoosh missed that.

Still point stands that the test GFS has been on roids every single run.

[MarkO]

23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Things very few on here care about, but the meso-models are surprisingly cold tomorrow evening for the Adirondacks, Greens, Whites, etc.  RGEM and NAM even want to snow into the NNE valleys for a good burst of QPF on the front end.  850s are surprisingly cold too.

If something like the NAM/WRF/RGEM panned out, could be more interesting than it seemed a day or two ago.

Need to see soundings as I suspect there's some marginal layer just above 850mb but it's got SFC temps of 33F widespread with this look. 

NAM had a warm layer up around 700mb which NWS discussion mentioned, but it appears that warm layer is less of a factor. Northern mtn areas look to be mostly snow/frozen now compared to earlier. I know the GFS has been pretty consistent with my area sounding which has been snowing snow down to at least 2000', and if it's coming down hard, I think it will be snowing in the valley's too.

[dryslot]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Ahhh the Jimmy James storm lol.  Whoosh missed that.

Still though, That panoramic GFS is messed up, But there is a disclaimer about using it on SV , It goes back to Aptil of this year so i don't know if its reliability has changed yet

The new Finite Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) GFS is now running in pre-parallel mode and available in part on SV.  This means (a) infrequent updates, (b) no delivery time reliability, and (c) not all files are yet available.  We are posting the available max res data now. Please note that until the 30-day evaluation period (not yet scheduled), this will not be a reliable data feed from NOAA.  They still do not have certain resolution levels needed for composite and many national maps yet.