CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 BTV WRF at 6z looked nice for nrn MA. Def advisory there on that model. Would be a wetter snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 4:08 PM, CoastalWx said: Anyways, if we are done comparing weenie sizes to latitude and elevation, It does look like you draw a line from Ray's fanny to ORH and north and think 1-2 with maybe 3-4 towards Hubby anyways. Maybe near Ray could pull 2-3, but lift seems lower than the DGZ. Expand Too bad Sam isn't still in Keene at 1000 feet. That's gonna be close to ground zero in this event. Princeton weenie ridge area could be sneaky good too as long as we don't get the warmest solutions. They always find a way to maximize the most marginal events. Anyways, hopefully models are little too warm by 0.5C or so...if they are then a lot of folks in the pike region could get in on this. But as is, not expecting much until you are in N ORH county and northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 4:11 PM, ORH_wxman said: Too bad Sam isn't still in Keene at 1000 feet. That's gonna be close to ground zero in this event. Princeton weenie ridge area could be sneaky good too as long as we don't get the warmest solutions. They always find a way to maximize the most marginal events. Anyways, hopefully models are little too warm by 0.5C or so...if they are then a lot of folks in the pike region could get in on this. But as is, not expecting much until you are in N ORH county and northward. Expand Ashburnham could do well while 2 towns away it could be like today. November....November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 4:05 PM, ORH_wxman said: Pretty much all the 12z guidance so far has ticked slightly cooler. It isn't much but it doesn't take much either for those on the line. Expand I really like my spot for this one. Could push us above 10" for November, which would be a nice boost to season total down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 4:11 PM, ORH_wxman said: Too bad Sam isn't still in Keene at 1000 feet. That's gonna be close to ground zero in this event. Princeton weenie ridge area could be sneaky good too as long as we don't get the warmest solutions. They always find a way to maximize the most marginal events. Anyways, hopefully models are little too warm by 0.5C or so...if they are then a lot of folks in the pike region could get in on this. But as is, not expecting much until you are in N ORH county and northward. Expand Antecedent day is warm, red flags everywhere, no real push south for the BL tonight. Hope the Pope is right but we rain anywhere south of NORH county. NE Mass could be in the goods with "some" low DP drainage. Hows the windex look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 33 and balmy in Nashua Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Close for far NW CT too. Maybe even some ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Basking in the glory of the coastal plain, sitting pretty at 54 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 4:27 PM, CT Rain said: Close for far NW CT too. Maybe even some ZR? Expand So close yet so far for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 4:27 PM, #NoPoles said: Basking in the glory of the coastal plain, sitting pretty at 54 degrees Expand Pilgrim exhaust FTL? 38 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 For MPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Early next week looks interesting for the interior...north of....the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 4:22 PM, Ginx snewx said: Antecedent day is warm, red flags everywhere, no real push south for the BL tonight. Hope the Pope is right but we rain anywhere south of NORH county. NE Mass could be in the goods with "some" low DP drainage. Hows the windex look? Expand Windex looks great in CNE and NNE. Pretty meh here. Good winds obviously but we are lacking good lift...don't have the classic LI spike. Moisture is ok...not amazing...so I could see a few snow showers or a squall but I'd be surprised if squalls were hitting most people in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 4:32 PM, CoastalWx said: Pilgrim exhaust FTL? 38 here. Expand Parakeets from Diane to S CT. Interior is still pretty chilly. ORH still rotting at 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 4:35 PM, ORH_wxman said: Windex looks great in CNE and NNE. Pretty meh here. Good winds obviously but we are lacking good lift...don't have the classic LI spike. Moisture is ok...not amazing...so I could see a few snow showers or a squall but I'd be surprised if squalls were hitting most people in SNE. Expand Thanks man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 4:38 PM, Ginx snewx said: Thanks man Expand We have amazing lapse rates on the soundings though. I'd like to see just a little more moisture at the surface and more lift...otherwise we'd be primed for a great event. Lapse rates are literally dry adiabatic even though we're near saturation between 900mb and 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 4:37 PM, ORH_wxman said: Parakeets from Diane to S CT. Interior is still pretty chilly. ORH still rotting at 32F. Expand GHG is 50 too. I can hear some wild sounds to my south...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Funny how fast things can change....many(myself included) were hoping for a few winter type hits in a row in this pattern in SNE, but looks not to be the case now...unfortunate. Still very impressive BN temps for the time of year. And I'm not complaining about the 8.75" of November snow that came back on Thursday. Darn good start for sure. Hope we can cash in in early December?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 4:42 PM, ORH_wxman said: We have amazing lapse rates on the soundings though. I'd like to see just a little more moisture at the surface and more lift...otherwise we'd be primed for a great event. Lapse rates are literally dry adiabatic even though we're near saturation between 900mb and 700mb. Expand That sucks, wouldn't be surprised if some rotting LES surprises some in SWCT Berks ORH county, seems like that kind of night Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 That GYX map looks really good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 4:43 PM, WinterWolf said: Funny how fast things can change....many(myself included) were hoping for a few winter type hits in a row in this pattern in SNE, but looks not to be the case now...unfortunate. Still very impressive BN temps for the time of year. And I'm not complaining about the 8.75" of November snow that came back on Thursday. Darn good start for sure. Hope we can cash in in early December?? Expand Funny how one strong voice from NE CT went quiet this morning. Also, this was always marginal. I honestly never saw this as big potential south of the pike. Maybe nrn CT had a chance but even there it was marginal. You can complain in Jan...but heck in November? I have no sympathy for anyone when climo highs are near 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 I think the over/under here is 2.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 4:48 PM, CoastalWx said: Funny how one strong voice from NE CT went quiet this morning. Also, this was always marginal. I honestly never saw this as big potential south of the pike. Maybe nrn CT had a chance but even these it was marginal. You can complain in Jan...but heck in November? I have no sympathy for anyone when climo highs are near 50. Expand "In "evil Mazz" voice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Tons of potential as we begin met winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2018 Author Share Posted November 19, 2018 Dark and dreary and chilly-classic November wx for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 4:22 PM, WxBlue said: I really like my spot for this one. Could push us above 10" for November, which would be a nice boost to season total down the road. Expand I had a nice boost in Oct/Nov 2011 too. Oops. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 4:48 PM, DomNH said: That GYX map looks really good to me. Expand Yea I would hit that too. Crazy great start to ski season, figures....oh well watching from afar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 5:03 PM, dendrite said: I had a nice boost in Oct/Nov 2011 too. Oops. lol Expand Hemisphere could not be more different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 5:04 PM, Ginx snewx said: Hemisphere could not be more different. Expand Sure...but just pointing out the irony. October snow killed that winter anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On 11/19/2018 at 5:06 PM, dendrite said: Sure...but just pointing out the irony. October snow killed that winter anyway. Expand How did you do Nov 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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