hlcater Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Most models bring a clipper through IA Friday evening into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Dropped down to 13 this morning. Brrrrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 The new Euro gives Hawk 2-3 inches of post frontal snows Friday night. Looks like a potential 1-2" for much of the DVN cwa, especially the Iowa side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 The 12/3km NAMs have been pretty consistent in showing a much further north track with the Fri night clipper compared to the Euro and GFS. Will the GFS/Euro get schooled again by the NAMs? The RGEM is pretty far north as well, and supports the NAM solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 The GFS and Euro have in fact trended towards the NAM on today's runs. Very impressive start to the season for the NAM. Not sure if it's been upgraded or not recently, or if it's just doing well with these particular patterns this season. Whatever the case it's gonna make for an interesting season. Will make it very interesting for tracking as we move from the 84+hr range to within 84hrs to see what the NAM has to say about things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: The GFS and Euro have in fact trended towards the NAM on today's runs. Very impressive start to the season for the NAM. Not sure if it's been upgraded or not recently, or if it's just doing well with these particular patterns this season. Whatever the case it's gonna make for an interesting season. Will make it very interesting for tracking as we move from the 84+hr range to within 84hrs to see what the NAM has to say about things. The NAM is one of those things where it has the right idea just enough to tease you into looking at it. It will be interesting to watch. Sometimes a model will have a good run for a while before reverting toward its typical scoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Still a little early, but the trends are to move the best snows from southern MN through southern WI with Fri night's wave. Looks like a DAB for about the southern half of the DVN cwa. Looks like 0.5-1.5" for about the northern third of the cwa. For here I'm guessing a quick burst of precip that starts out as a mix and transitions to wet snow and drops a few tenths. 3km NAM showing some LES for Chicago Sat night that drifts into northwest IN by Sunday morning. Something to keep an eye on for you guys out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 3km NAM showing some LES for Chicago Sat night that drifts into northwest IN by Sunday morning. Something to keep an eye on for you guys out that way. Been watching that. Parameters look sufficient for a lake response. The southern buoy is down to 45... I remember years where it took until December to get that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 At least us midwesterners know how to drive... It is insane what happened there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 4 hours ago, Stebo said: At least us midwesterners know how to drive... It is insane what happened there today. Waiting for the obligatory post regarding I-65 in Indiana...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 10 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Still a little early, but the trends are to move the best snows from southern MN through southern WI with Fri night's wave. Looks like a DAB for about the southern half of the DVN cwa. Looks like 0.5-1.5" for about the northern third of the cwa. For here I'm guessing a quick burst of precip that starts out as a mix and transitions to wet snow and drops a few tenths. 3km NAM showing some LES for Chicago Sat night that drifts into northwest IN by Sunday morning. Something to keep an eye on for you guys out that way. Looks like this mornings hi-res runs of the RGEM & to an extent NAMs are trying to shift back a little further southwest, with more of a widespread 1-3 incher near the QCA. Still think around 1 on average, but something to watch the trends on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 HRRR is fairly robust relative to the other models and even seems to suggest some convective elements near the changeover zone. Will be interesting to see how this evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 20 minutes ago, hlcater said: HRRR is fairly robust relative to the other models and even seems to suggest some convective elements near the changeover zone. Will be interesting to see how this evolves. It has also been consistently shifting a little south with each run. Last night it kept everything in southern MN/WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Think there could be a good burst of snow here tomorrow morning. Maybe even a quick inch or so though temps look marginal. Then lake effect should take shape tomorrow night. Some signals for a single banded structure into northwest IN but degree of organization is questionable and temps remain marginal even into the overnight hours with the flow off the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 27 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: It has also been consistently shifting a little south with each run. Last night it kept everything in southern MN/WI Yep, seems the 15z RAP is also trying to sniff out that convective band developing after midnight thru early Sat. morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 If the 12z Suite has the right idea, WWA may have to be extended farther southwest, especially between Waterloo & Cedar Rapids. The new Euro coming in also seems to target that area with the potential a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 It'll be interesting to see what the nws and local mets do. This morning they all basically said, "Nothing to see here", for the corridor through Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 HRRR continues to juice 'er up. Likely somewhat of a result of that convective banding it keeps indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Nice to see things trending in the right direction today. Looking pretty sweet for Cedar Rapids and points west. Hopefully the models are weakening it a little too quickly so we can get some of those better amounts further southeast. At this point an inch will seem like a win after how things looked the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Lots of WWA up with the little event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 HRRR hinting at the second band south of I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 WWA have been extended again further south to the Hwy 30 corridor this evening, as things seem to continue to be shifting south. Radar lightning up nicely back towards Ames, and Des Moines this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Certainly one of those weeks this week. As been the case for much of the week, another day of wall-to-wall overcast skies and highs in the 30s the entire day. It should have had rained or snowed with it. Not much luck with Fridays lately, too. So far this November, as of yesterday, sunshine is currently at around 25%, but expect it to drop to near 20% over the next few days. Here's to a long crappy weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Not expecting much here in Northwest Ohio with this area of snowfall this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 25 minutes ago, Spartman said: Certainly one of those weeks this week. As been the case for much of the week, another day of wall-to-wall overcast skies and highs in the 30s the entire day. It should have had rained or snowed with it. Not much luck with Fridays lately, too. So far this November, as of yesterday, sunshine is currently at around 25%, but expect it to drop to near 20% over the next few days. Here's to a long crappy weekend. Yeah I am so over this constant overcast. And not a snowflake to show for it here. I feel like I am in Seattle. Where is the sunshine ? Today was supposed to be Partly Sunny and ended up being cloudy. Tomorrow was forecast to be Mostly Cloudy and now they changed it to Cloudy. They are forecasting "Partly Sunny" on Mon and Tues but I have a feeling as it gets closer it will change to Mostly Cloudy or Cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 The warm up coming Thanksgiving and after is going to feel like a heatwave after what it's been like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Rather it just stayed cold. Just going to make the next plunge feel even more brutal. Besides, I have snow OTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 18 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Rather it just stayed cold. Just going to make the next plunge feel even more brutal. Besides, I have snow OTG Not me... still have leaves to take care of. But about 20% of the leaves are still on the trees... a dead ugly brown but seemingly content to not detach themselves yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 18 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Not me... still have leaves to take care of. But about 20% of the leaves are still on the trees... a dead ugly brown but seemingly content to not detach themselves yet. I'm with ya. Still have quite a few leaves left to deal with as well. Early sunset times means that doing anything during the workweek isn't possible. Might have some snow on the ground this weekend, so will hopefully be able to finish the yard next weekend when it's warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Almost hard to believe we had this 5 years ago with how this November has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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