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November 2018 General Discussion


snowlover2

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37 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Both the GFS and GEM agree on a clipper type system coming through the region Friday-Saturday, certainly not the big storm modeled a few days ago but could bring some snow if it happens nevertheless. 

Bit of a tricky pattern for the models.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Thu-Fri system try to make a comeback.  

I guess it may find a way to snow one way or another lol

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16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, underrated storm.  Really quite amazing geographical coverage of snow for that time of year.  

Speaking of that November 1966 storm, that was the last time Chicago had a 1"+ snow in the first 10 days of November (and it was only 1.5" since they were on the western fringe).  Ironically, there have been a couple bigger October snows since then... in 1967 and 1989.  

Wow crazy. Flurries are common, but as you said getting a good old blanket of snow prior to mid November is not common. Thats crazy about Chicago I'll have to check Detroit.

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6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wow crazy. Flurries are common, but as you said getting a good old blanket of snow prior to mid November is not common. Thats crazy about Chicago I'll have to check Detroit.

I checked it out... last time Detroit had an inch of snow in the first 10 days of November was 11/7/1991.  I checked out Indianapolis and the last time for them is 11/7/1992.  So while it's quite unusual to get a synoptic snow in early November, Chicago seems to be having a run of particularly bad luck.

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24 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

18z gfs is once again slightly more organized than previous runs regarding Thursday-Friday... At least it seems like it to the naked eye. It's definitely not-black and-white map like it was a few days ago...

Yes.  Today's runs have stopped the bleeding.

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20 hours ago, outflow said:

Two days later and all bombs cancelled. Talk about big swings.....and misses

In hindsight, it's obvious the globals struggled with which wave would get amplified and they each picked one, lol. Now, it may be that none of them go bigly and we end up learning a lesson on model behavior. TWC had all kinds of snow in their forecast and had to promptly pull it just as quickly.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_52.thumb.png.14c21cb797c9b00ab274492d74b9f921.png

18z GFS, V3, and Euro all are consistent with strength of SLP, and general snow shield. Heck, V3 keeps flakes flying over mby for 27 hrs courtesy of follow-on LES showers. If not a very deep snow, it certainly would be a winter-like couple days Friday into Saturday considering the calendar dates. I'm intrigued to say the least.

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