Jonger Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Pretty safe to say the CFS was wrong about a warm November, looks like a top 20 coldest November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Jonger said: Pretty safe to say the CFS was wrong about a warm November, looks like a top 20 coldest November. It could be wrong but I'm not sold on that cold of a November. What we're seeing would have to persist through the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 @ the the 12z FV3-GFS for next Thursday's system. Looks like a nice soaker tonight, with up to an inch of rain possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: It could be wrong but I'm not sold on that cold of a November. What we're seeing would have to persist through the month. Every year we have this happen. A very impressive looking bold snap about 7 to 10 days out on the model that eventually happens 20 days later. I would probably pin the latter part of the month as really cold but what is being modelled now will come in much more subdued. As for the snow system, there is always a potential thread the needle situation, even late in the week would have some flakes flying if current trends hold but the real impressive stuff I'll be skeptical on at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Anyone know where to get the 6z and 18z Euro? Is it only on certain sites, because the ones I've checked don't have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 First winter weather advisory for the area tomorrow for northern Wisconsin. I am looking forward to seeing the flakes fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Anyone know where to get the 6z and 18z Euro? Is it only on certain sites, because the ones I've checked don't have it. Weathermodels has it in the model lab section Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 27 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Weathermodels has it in the model lab section Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Kinda took a step back since last night, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Kinda took a step back since last night, lol It do be like that sometimes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Malacka11 said: It do be like that sometimes... FV3 brought back a little something. Passes to our south though. I feel strangely optimistic about getting some snow out of this, even with the model disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 34 minutes ago, Hoosier said: FV3 brought back a little something. Passes to our south though. I feel strangely optimistic about getting some snow out of this, even with the model disagreement. I concur. I have a question, perhaps you can answer it: What's the relationship/correlation between the GFS and GEFS? I know this is a very basic question, but I've been wanting to ask it for a while because I feel like I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 The very short timing between tonight, Monday, and Thursday's shortwaves has caused havoc in determining the evolution of all three of the systems. Originally tonight's system was pretty meh, but it turned out to be a fairly potent little system. The Monday system is a little less intense than what some earlier guidance had shown. Thursday's system is gonna depend on how Monday's system departs, so we'll probably have to wait a few more days to see how that one will evolve. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if the Thursday wave completely craps the bed, or becomes a powerful storm storm. No matter what happens I'm pretty happy, as normally November is a very boring month for tracking pretty much anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I concur. I have a question, perhaps you can answer it: What's the relationship/correlation between the GFS and GEFS? I know this is a very basic question, but I've been wanting to ask it for a while because I feel like I'm missing something. A model expert could give a more technical answer, but basically, it's taking the GFS and perturbing it in a bunch of different ways to give a variety of solutions. Naturally, the spread in the individual GEFS members will tend to narrow at closer time ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: A model expert could give a more technical answer, but basically, it's taking the GFS and perturbing it in a bunch of different ways to give a variety of solutions. Naturally, the spread in the individual GEFS members will tend to narrow at closer time ranges. Thanks a bunch chief, that's what I thought it was, I was just confused about whether the GFS is the original model with no altered parameters or if it's just one of the GEFS ensemble members. Thank you for clarifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Euro still looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Snowing at a decent clip here in north central Wisconsin. Cars are covered and the grass is turning white. Temp right at 31 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Speaking of GEFS good lord it was mighty cold towards the end of the week for the central part of the nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 8 hours ago, IllinoisWedges said: Euro still looks good Kind of looks like some of the GFS runs from a few days ago. It's still there, but definitely not as impressive. Could it be the Euro is trending towards the GFS? Doesn't seem to happen very often in the mid range at least. New GFS just in says what storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Big difference between the 12z GFS and the FV3-GFS for the late week system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 11 hours ago, Malacka11 said: I concur. I have a question, perhaps you can answer it: What's the relationship/correlation between the GFS and GEFS? I know this is a very basic question, but I've been wanting to ask it for a while because I feel like I'm missing something. The GEFS, an ensemble model, basically takes the data from the GFS (it's numerical weather model counterpart) and looks at the different uncertainties that can exist in actual weather observations. The GEFS corrects this uncertainty through its multiple ensemble forecasts during each model run (0z, 6z, 12z and 18z) and looks at the different scenarios that could play out from a single forecast. Despite trying to reduce the uncertainty, especially in the medium-long range, there still exists some spread between each run, hence any forecast beyond a certain point should be taken with caution (spread-skill relationship). As well, this spread is actually quite noticeable when you look at spaghetti plots. This is all I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 When you dig into the records you realize how freakin tough it is to even get an inch or two of synoptic snow prior to mid/late November. Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 22 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: The GEFS, an ensemble model, basically takes the data from the GFS (it's numerical weather model counterpart) and looks at the different uncertainties that can exist in actual weather observations. The GEFS corrects this uncertainty through its multiple ensemble forecasts during each model run (0z, 6z, 12z and 18z) and looks at the different scenarios that could play out from a single forecast. Despite trying to reduce the uncertainty, especially in the medium-long range, there still exists some spread between each run, hence any forecast beyond a certain point should be taken with caution (spread-skill relationship). As well, this spread is actually quite noticeable when you look at spaghetti plots. This is all I know. Thank you very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: When you dig into the records you realize how freakin tough it is to even get an inch or two of synoptic snow prior to mid/late November. Wow... Making Nov 2-3 1966 freakishly amazing imho. Snow accum's down in Dixie a couple days after Halloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: Making Nov 2-3 1966 freakishly amazing imho. Snow accum's down in Dixie a couple days after Halloween Yeah, underrated storm. Really quite amazing geographical coverage of snow for that time of year. Speaking of that November 1966 storm, that was the last time Chicago had a 1"+ snow in the first 10 days of November (and it was only 1.5" since they were on the western fringe). Ironically, there have been a couple bigger October snows since then... in 1967 and 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Euro continues to trend towards weaker GFS with the Thu wave. Looks like we may have ourselves a classic November mirage storm lol. Looks like if anything should come from this wave the eastern sub will have the best shot at it. Could be an interesting winter if the Euro loses to the GFS in the mid-range on a consistent basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Euro continues to trend towards weaker GFS with the Thu wave. Looks like we may have ourselves a classic November mirage storm lol. Looks like if anything should come from this wave the eastern sub will have the best shot at it. Could be an interesting winter if the Euro loses to the GFS in the mid-range on a consistent basis. At first I was like how does he have the Euro, but then I remembered the time change. Nice benefit as we head toward winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 My rain total from the current system is 1.33". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, underrated storm. Really quite amazing geographical coverage of snow for that time of year. Speaking of that November 1966 storm, that was the last time Chicago had a 1"+ snow in the first 10 days of November (and it was only 1.5" since they were on the western fringe). Ironically, there have been a couple bigger October snows since then... in 1967 and 1989. Ahh. I see what you meant now. Around here (South central Mich) that Nov '66 storm unloaded 8-13.5" making it a very tall order to de-throne by anything at or earlier in date-stamp. The closest 1st-half player since was 7" on Nov 13-14th of '72. Looking way back, there was a double digit storm (10.5") on Nov 8-9th of 1915. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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