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November 2018 General Discussion


snowlover2

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Quad Cities airport up to 18.4" of snowfall this month and for the winter (record). We picked up some light snowfall this morning up here, so maybe add 0.1 or so to that. Very impressive for so early in the season. Not even December 1 yet.....hope we get crushed in December lol.

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26 minutes ago, ILwxchr said:

Reminds me of 12/1/2006 albeit further northwest on that cut off.

Yeah was thinking that too.  The 2006 storm, the March 2018 storm, and this one all had very impressive cutoffs.  It was pretty cool driving south in the snow free area earlier today, and I could see snow on the hills ahead as I approached the cut off.  

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Not sure how many people are paying attention to Saturday. There could be some severe weather in this sub-forum, at least parts of Southern IL along with a possible ice/snow event in North Central Iowa. IMBY I look to see mainly lame ole rain. The ole trustworthy 84 hour NAM already showing some CAPE building into Southern IL at 18z on Saturday. I have a feeling this may be a tad too far south based on what the GFS is showing. The Euro has it even more northwest with a surface low of 984mb near Omaha, NE.. Seems like perhaps the Euro wants to occlude the low faster. Either way I think we see quite a bit of rainfall, which on top of the deep snow pack we just got (heavily water filled too) could spell some flooding issues. Here are a few graphics off the latest NAM showing severe potential (SBCAPE, 0-1km SRH etc). Not to often you expect severe storms on almost December 1st in Illinois.

Screen Shot 2018-11-28 at 7.30.31 AM.png

Screen Shot 2018-11-28 at 7.30.10 AM.png

Screen Shot 2018-11-28 at 7.29.57 AM.png

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Ended up with around 2" last night. Officially 2.3" at MSP, which more then doubles our season total to date. This ended up over-preforming as the hi-res models kept spitting out an inch or less. 

If we can nudge the weekend system just a tad further north might be in line for a decent snowpack by early next week.  

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Counting today, I will have seen a trace or greater of snow for four straight days in my little corner of NWOH. Not an impressive stat by any means, but intriguing for the month of November. Two days of system snow, then two days of LES off of Lake Michigan thanks to the combination of the warm water and strong NW flow. 

Monday: system snow and wind from plains blizzard moving NE = 1.2" accum

Tuesday: LES = 0.5" accum

Wednesday: early morning LES = DAB accum

Thurs: burst of system snow from quickie shortwave = DAB-0.25" accum (eyeballed)

Now with the warm front approaching, this little streak will end, but still some oddball stats from what has been one of the snowier Novembers in recent recollection. Not because of totals per se, but because of frequency. That said, I am intrigued by the potential for severe weather over the weekend. Threat seems to be coming northward into Central IN and further improvement of the thermodynamic setup could lead to a SLGT over that region later according to SPC. 

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Assuming it's cloudy tomorrow in no more snow falls, DTW will finish November with 6.7" of snow, good enough for 18th snowiest November. Final sky cover of 9.3 out of 10. there were 0 clear days, 3 partly cloudy days, and 27 cloudy days lol.  I'll finish with 6.1" of snow imby and never had to shovel (I did shovel some slush once, just to play with the shovel because Im so ready).  Snow fell on 14 days but no more than 1.5" on any given day. Time for my nature to give a little more at a time in December.  Today 0.2"  snow was like white sawdust.

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Busy week for the DVN office.  Blizzard on Sunday, with a foot plus of snow.  Now a tor threat in the southern/southeastern cwa tomorrow afternoon.  I'd likely chase this if I wasn't going to be stuck at work.  Would be pretty cool to bag a tor 6 days after experiencing a blizzard.  Even seeing a sup would be quite nice.

The final concern in a very busy short term fcst, is with migrating
triple point and southwest dry in-wrapping tongue of air Sat
afternoon. These features, along with very high shear values and
even marginal CAPE`s could fuel a sctrd low-topped supercell event
from eastern MO and up through central and western IL. If these
processes can make it far enough to the northwest, the DVN
southeastern CWA/Burlington on southeastward, may be at risk for
some of these storms to skirt acrs. All severe weather threats may
come into play, even a December tornado. Erosion of snow cover and
it`s feedback effects in the southeast will be a big player on how
far northwest the stronger storms get or for a sfc based threat.
Otherwise elevated storms may still produce a hail threat. ..12..
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November 2018 temperature and snowfall rankings for cities that were in their respective top 20's all-time.

Alpena, MI: 5th coldest

Chicago, IL: 13th (T) coldest - 4th snowiest

Cincinnati, OH: 9th coldest

Cleveland, OH: 16th coldest

Columbia, MO: 4th coldest - 15th snowiest

Dayton, OH: 11th (T) coldest

Des Moines, IA: 10th (T) coldest

Dubuque, IA: 8th coldest

Evansville, IN: 7th coldest

Flint, MI: 5th (T) coldest - 7th snowiest

Grand Rapids, MI: 10th coldest - 15th snowiest

Indianapolis, IN: 15th coldest

Kansas City, MO: coldest on record - 2nd snowiest

Madison, WI: 19th coldest

Marquette, MI: 3rd coldest - 12th snowiest

Moline, IL: 12th coldest - snowiest on record 

Paducah, KY: 7th coldest

Peoria, IL: 8th coldest - 2nd snowiest

Rochester, MN: 11th coldest

Rockford, IL: 7th (T) coldest - snowiest on record*

St Cloud, MN: 17th coldest

St Louis, MO: 4th (T) coldest - 8th (T) snowiest

Sault Ste Marie, MI: 16th (T) coldest - 13th snowiest

South Bend, IN: 6th coldest

Springfield, IL: 5th coldest - snowiest on record

Springfield, MO: 6th (T) coldest

Toledo, OH: 14th (T) coldest

Wausau, WI: 8th coldest

*via LOT's website - 18.5" in 1895 not listed

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2 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

November 2018 temperature and snowfall rankings for cities that were in their respective top 20's all-time.

Alpena, MI: 5th coldest

Chicago, IL: 13th (T) coldest - 4th snowiest

Cincinnati, OH: 9th coldest

Cleveland, OH: 16th coldest

Columbia, MO: 4th coldest - 15th snowiest

Dayton, OH: 11th (T) coldest

Des Moines, IA: 10th (T) coldest

Dubuque, IA: 8th coldest

Evansville, IN: 7th coldest

Flint, MI: 5th (T) coldest - 7th snowiest

Grand Rapids, MI: 10th coldest - 15th snowiest

Indianapolis, IN: 15th coldest

Kansas City, MO: coldest on record - 2nd snowiest

Madison, WI: 19th coldest

Marquette, MI: 3rd coldest - 12th snowiest

Moline, IL: 12th coldest - snowiest on record 

Paducah, KY: 7th coldest

Peoria, IL: 8th coldest - 2nd snowiest

Rochester, MN: 11th coldest

Rockford, IL: 7th (T) coldest - snowiest on record*

St Cloud, MN: 17th coldest

St Louis, MO: 4th (T) coldest - 8th (T) snowiest

Sault Ste Marie, MI: 16th (T) coldest - 13th snowiest

South Bend, IN: 6th coldest

Springfield, IL: 5th coldest - snowiest on record

Springfield, MO: 6th (T) coldest

Toledo, OH: 14th (T) coldest

Wausau, WI: 8th coldest

*via LOT's website - 18.5" in 1895 not listed

Detroit just missed making the top 20 coldest. I think they finished at 21st or 22nd. They did make the 18th snowiest however.

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000
CXUS51 KILN 010541
CF6DAY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

                                          STATION:   DAYTON OH
                                          MONTH:     NOVEMBER
                                          YEAR:      2018
                                          LATITUDE:   39 54 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  84 12 W

  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  51  44  48  -1  17   0 2.86  0.0    0 13.5 23  40   M    M  10 1      29  40
 2  45  39  42  -6  23   0 0.07  0.0    0  8.5 21 320   M    M  10 1      26 320
 3  54  34  44  -4  21   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.3 16 260   M    M   5        22 260
 4  58  42  50   2  15   0 0.11  0.0    0 12.4 21 130   M    M   9 1      26 130
 5  60  50  55   8  10   0 0.20  0.0    0 10.4 23 100   M    M  10 1      27 110
 6  59  45  52   5  13   0 0.13  0.0    0 17.1 36 240   M    M   6 1      45 250
 7  52  32  42  -4  23   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.8 22 260   M    M   3        26 260
 8  46  30  38  -8  27   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.5 14  30   M    M   6        16  40
 9  42  30  36 -10  29   0 0.14  0.3    T 12.7 28 260   M    M  10 1      36 350
10  34  21  28 -17  37   0 0.00  0.0    0 12.3 30 290   M    M   5        38 290
11  43  20  32 -13  33   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.5 14 190   M    M   3        18 200
12  44  31  38  -6  27   0    T    T    0  3.6 10 350   M    M  10        13 350
13  38  26  32 -12  33   0    T    T    0 10.7 18 350   M    M   9 1      23 320
14  32  21  27 -17  38   0 0.01    T    0  7.8 16  80   M    M   7 46     30 330
15  35  30  33 -10  32   0 0.89    T    T 10.1 18 100   M    M  10 146    22 110
16  38  31  35  -8  30   0 0.00  0.0    0 13.1 23 240   M    M  10 18     27 230
17  45  37  41  -1  24   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.0  9 190   M    M  10 18     12 170
18  48  38  43   1  22   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.4 12 350   M    M  10 18     13 350
19  39  36  38  -3  27   0 0.50  0.0    0  6.4 12 320   M    M  10 1      15 310
20  38  32  35  -6  30   0    T    T    0  9.2 17 280   M    M   9 18     20 280
21  39  29  34  -6  31   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.9 16 260   M    M   7 18     21 240
22  40  28  34  -6  31   0 0.00  0.0    0  9.0 17 110   M    M   4 18     20 120
23  52  28  40   0  25   0 0.03  0.0    0 10.9 16 130   M    M   5        21 140
24  54  45  50  11  15   0 0.47  0.0    0 14.1 24 220   M    M   6 1      29 230
25  55  39  47   8  18   0 0.03  0.0    0 10.4 24 130   M    M   7 1      29 130
26  50  29  40   2  25   0 0.25  0.5    0 18.2 32 240   M    M  10 18     39 240
27  29  23  26 -12  39   0    T  0.2    1 15.0 24 280   M    M  10 16     28 290
28  25  21  23 -14  42   0    T    T    1  9.8 21 270   M    M   9        24 270
29  35  24  30  -7  35   0    T    T    T  9.1 17 130   M    M  10 16     22 180
30  44  35  40   4  25   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.2 14 100   M    M  10 12     16 100
================================================================================
SM 1324  970       797   0  5.69     1.0 297.9          M      240
================================================================================
AV 44.1 32.3                               9.9 FASTST   M    M   8    MAX(MPH)
                                 MISC ---->  # 36 240               # 45  250
================================================================================
NOTES:
# LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES

COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2

                                          STATION:  DAYTON OH
                                          MONTH:    NOVEMBER
                                          YEAR:     2018
                                          LATITUDE:   39 54 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  84 12 W

[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]       SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 38.2   TOTAL FOR MONTH:   5.69    1 = FOG OR MIST
DPTR FM NORMAL:  -4.6   DPTR FM NORMAL:    2.30    2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
HIGHEST:    60 ON  5    GRTST 24HR  2.86 ON  1- 1      TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS
LOWEST:     20 ON 11                               3 = THUNDER
                        SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL    4 = ICE PELLETS
                        TOTAL MONTH:   1.0 INCH    5 = HAIL
                        GRTST 24HR   0.5 ON 26-26  6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
                        GRTST DEPTH:   1 ON 28,27  7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM:
                                                       VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS
                                                   8 = SMOKE OR HAZE
[NO. OF DAYS WITH]      [WEATHER - DAYS WITH]      9 = BLOWING SNOW
                                                   X = TORNADO
MAX 32 OR BELOW:   3    0.01 INCH OR MORE:  13
MAX 90 OR ABOVE:   0    0.10 INCH OR MORE:   9
MIN 32 OR BELOW:  18    0.50 INCH OR MORE:   3
MIN  0 OR BELOW:   0    1.00 INCH OR MORE:   1

[HDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO.   797    CLEAR  (SCALE 0-3)   2
DPTR FM NORMAL   133    PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7)  10
TOTAL FM JUL 1  1228    CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 18
DPTR FM NORMAL   117

[CDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO.     0
DPTR FM NORMAL     0    [PRESSURE DATA]
TOTAL FM JAN 1  1354    HIGHEST SLP 30.63 ON 14
DPTR FM NORMAL   463    LOWEST  SLP 29.38 ON 26

[REMARKS]
#FINAL-11-18#

Cold, mostly cloudy, and wet sums November up completely. Sunshine at DAY was only 20% while CMH was just about 16%. Good riddance. Though, I'm dreading a bit of a December 2014 redux over the next month (https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51762-december-2018-general-discussion/).

 

 

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10 hours ago, weatherbo said:

What a November for most

untitled.thumb.png.0dbddb1b10731c167e428a9721d83aa9.png

untitled1.thumb.png.e52cc11149718540144eca979f45fa41.png

 

To me that map looks pretty darn accurate for south east Michigan and northern lower up by our cabin. Thanks for posting it bo. Is that a free site you get that from? Will be neat to follow it through the season to see how it does. Enjoy your winter wonderland up there, down here it was a great day to get stuff done outside, sunny early, light wind and in the 50’s. 

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2 hours ago, slow poke said:

To me that map looks pretty darn accurate for south east Michigan and northern lower up by our cabin. Thanks for posting it bo. Is that a free site you get that from? Will be neat to follow it through the season to see how it does. Enjoy your winter wonderland up there, down here it was a great day to get stuff done outside, sunny early, light wind and in the 50’s. 

 The map is definitely low for the Detroit area. 6.7" at DTW, 6.1" here, and northern suburbs easily over 10".  For the most part it is a great map though and a great tool as well

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12 hours ago, slow poke said:

To me that map looks pretty darn accurate for south east Michigan and northern lower up by our cabin. Thanks for posting it bo. Is that a free site you get that from? Will be neat to follow it through the season to see how it does. Enjoy your winter wonderland up there, down here it was a great day to get stuff done outside, sunny early, light wind and in the 50’s. 

Thank you, and yw!  It's not a free site.  $100 a year or something like that.

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13th coldest November on record for Chicago.

It was also the 4th snowiest November on record...

Top 10 Snowiest Novembers:
1. 14.8" - 1940
2. 14.5" - 1895
3. 14.3" - 1951
4. 12.7" - 2018
5. 11.2" - 2015
6. 10.8" - 1975
7. 7.6" - 1953
8. 7.5" - 1893
9. 7.1" - 1978
10. 7.0" - 1950

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