snowlover2 Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 Cool weather appears to continue into November as well as rainy especially the eastern sub. Both 12z GFS and GGEM show a storm tracking through the OV possibly bringing 1-3" of rain the first day or two of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 Gotta post the CFS. You know me... Looks like we won't have the cold north and west/warm south and east gradient like October, unless this is completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 31, 2018 Author Share Posted October 31, 2018 I wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Really raw day to open November, but I actually love these type of days. 43 degrees, steady rain, breezy. The wind from the weekend really stripped some trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 On 10/27/2018 at 10:51 AM, Hoosier said: Gotta post the CFS. You know me... Looks like we won't have the cold north and west/warm south and east gradient like October, unless this is completely wrong. These CFS runs are now -very- different from the most recent GEFS runs, which run out to Nov. 16-17. If you look at GEFS 5-day averages of 850mb temp anomaly or surface temp anomaly, they have many days of below normals for the Midwest and southern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 50 minutes ago, Chinook said: These CFS runs are now -very- different from the most recent GEFS runs, which run out to Nov. 16-17. If you look at GEFS 5-day averages of 850mb temp anomaly or surface temp anomaly, they have many days of below normals for the Midwest and southern Canada. There should be some warm pulses in the next week or two, especially out ahead of bigger storms, but whether it's enough to offset all the negative days is certainly questionable. Could see more of a breakdown into a warmer pattern in latter November but that is getting out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Today's system really looks like a classic winter storm just by glancing at reflectivity. You guys from eastern IL up through southeast MI would have been sitting pretty lol. Would have been a grueling cutoff near Hoosier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 That's ok, today's wishful-thinking snowstorm would pale in comparison to this monstrosity 222 hours out (/s): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 40 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Today's system really looks like a classic winter storm just by glancing at reflectivity. You guys from eastern IL up through southeast MI would have been sitting pretty lol. Would have been a grueling cutoff near Hoosier. Judging from our climo and our luck, this will be the most favorable storm track all winter the pattern has been interesting to me lately, especially with that blob off the pac coast, and the La Niña like behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 4 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Today's system really looks like a classic winter storm just by glancing at reflectivity. You guys from eastern IL up through southeast MI would have been sitting pretty lol. Would have been a grueling cutoff near Hoosier. Not the most dynamic of systems and thus lacking in heavy rain. Nonetheless, it's nice to finally get a decent system tracking thru this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 The system actually does remind me of a few snowfalls in recent years where there was a sharp cut off to my North and West. It was not heavy rain but it was constant, I'll have to measure in a little while. It is November so im in snow mode! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 45 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Just came to comment on this... the GFS and its ensemble seem to bite, but I'm waiting on some other models to produce something noteworthy before I believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 24 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Just came to comment on this... the GFS and its ensemble seem to bite, but I'm waiting on some other models to produce something noteworthy before I believe... Now why would you do that? You're supposed to throw caution to the wind on early season snows that are a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Now why would you do that? You're supposed to throw caution to the wind on early season snows that are a week out. Because I have a tendency to believe anything blue Also, I mean believe as in "mayhaps worthy of a glance", not "separate-thread discussion worthy" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 The 12z euro is even better than that GFS map above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Yep....Euro takes a 1001 MB low over Northern Indiana next Friday to this on Saturday....with early season hounds of the Arctic behind..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Euro has a nice start to winter up this way! 10 day total: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Anything even close to this would be pretty wild before the midpoint of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Anything even close to this would be pretty wild before the midpoint of November. Agreed. Tonight's model runs will be exciting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Bombs galore on models today. Could be the wildest November of my adult lifetime if it comes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 As cool as it would be to get dumped on in early November, I need a couple weeks to collect the neighbor's oak leaves for my garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 A November to remember? What's pretty impressive is some of these snow swaths that are modeled are pretty wide for so early. Better than some we've seen in the heart of winter in past seasons lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 30 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: As cool as it would be to get dumped on in early November, I need a couple weeks to collect the neighbor's oak leaves for my garden. well get on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 53 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: As cool as it would be to get dumped on in early November, I need a couple weeks to collect the neighbor's oak leaves for my garden. The maples on my block only recently turned mostly yellow (still a little green mixed in) and easily still have 80-90% of their leaves. Of course half of them might come down in the windbag on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 On 10/27/2018 at 12:51 PM, Hoosier said: Gotta post the CFS. You know me... Looks like we won't have the cold north and west/warm south and east gradient like October, unless this is completely wrong. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 pick a day, pick a model, pick a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 00z GFS still has the snow system. Looking at the overall setup, I think this actually has a decent chance of happening roughly in the area currently being advertised even though the calendar says early November. Heights really don't have a chance to rebound a lot in the wake of the big system earlier in the week, which should help prevent a mega north trend. Note I said prevent a mega north trend, which doesn't mean some north trend can't occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Regarding the end of week system, the Euro is about as far north as it can go imo. It is a bit slower than the other models. If it were to slow down even more than the 00z Euro, then it could actually run the risk of eventually getting sheared out by the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: Regarding the end of week system, the Euro is about as far north as it can go imo. It is a bit slower than the other models. If it were to slow down even more than the 00z Euro, then it could actually run the risk of eventually getting sheared out by the northern stream. I.E. 6z gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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