November 2018 temperature forecast contest and Regional Rumble, winter snowfall contest added

[Roger Smith]

With the contests incredibly tight (range is very small from about first to tenth places) and the Regional Rumble turning into a three-way fight to the finish, we have two forecasts left, and this month we add the annual winter snowfall contest. As per last winter, I will substitute DTW, BUF and BTV for three southern locations that see little snow (usually). 

For the temperature contest, predict the anomaly (F deg) for these nine stations:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

and for the snowfall contest, the forecast should be for the entire winter season including what has already fallen (at DEN about 4" last check), and you have until mid-November to submit this or edit it later.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

We'll say end of Nov 15th as a deadline for the snowfall contest and I will send reminders. Anyone who just wants to enter that and skip the temperature contest is welcome to join in. 

Good luck (temp forecast due 06z Nov 1, late penalties after that time). 

[Stebo]

DCA +1.2 13.2"

NYC +1.0 34.3"

BOS +0.8 53.5"

ORD +0.5 33.5"

ATL +1.9 DTW 47"

IAH +1.2 BUF 87"

DEN -0.8 37"

PHX -1.1 BTV 97"

SEA -1.2 10.7"

[Rjay]

DCA +3.0  33"

NYC +3.0  54"

BOS +3.0 70"

ORD +1.0. 30"

ATL +2.5    DTW 38"

IAH +2.0   BUF  100"

DEN +1.0  65"

PHX +1.0   BTV 100"

SEA 0.0   6"

[Tom]

DCA +1.6   26.3"

NYC +1.7   56.4"

BOS +1.9   65.6"

ORD +0.7   29.6"

ATL +1.8   DTW 41.6"

IAH +2.2   BUF  95.2"

DEN -0.2   62.3"

PHX -0.2   BTV  89.6"

SEA  -0.5   1.9"

 

Philly 

 



[hudsonvalley21]

DCA +2.2  22"

NYC +2.2  40"

BOS +2.4  62"

ORD +1.4  36" 

ATL +1.9   DTW 48.2"

IAH +1.1  BUF 101.5"

DEN +1.2  51"

PHX +1.3   BTV 88"

SEA  -0.2   5.7"

NYC Subfourm

[Roger Smith]

I will need to send the four who already posted a p.m. about the snowfall contest, but later entrants, please note:

ATL to be replaced by DTW

IAH to be replaced by BUF

PHX to be replaced by BTV

(so we have some places that actually get snow )

this was in the welcome post but I realize many just take the post before theirs and follow on from that. 

Thanks -- Kontestman. 

(I will thank posts when I believe they show the appropriate snowfall predictions, that's just for my own quick recognition of follow-up later -- looks like the later guys saw this)

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA  

1.0       1.0      0.5        0.5      1.0    1.0         0.5      1.0     0.5 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

25"     42"      75"       70"      80"      120"       75"    10"   85" 

 

[dmillz25]

DCA +2.0  24”

NYC +2.2  53”

BOS +2.5  67”

 ORD +1.0 40”

ATL +1.0 DTW 37.7”

IAH +1.1  BUF 85”

DEN -1.5 57”

PHX + 1.0 BTV 90”

SEA  0.0  5”

 

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Scotty Lightning said:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA  

1.0       1.0      0.5        0.5      1.0    1.0         0.5      1.0     0.5 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

25"     42"      75"       70"      80"      120"       75"    10"   85" 

 

I know some people who would lose their minds if we got 80" of snow, would be the 2nd snowiest winter on record for DTW.

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +1.6  22.9

NYC:  +1.8  40.6

BOS:  +2.1  59.7

ORD:  +0.6  38.9

ATL:  +1.6  45.9 (DTW)

IAH:  +1.3  98.4 (BUF)

DEN:  +1.8  67.6

PHX:  +2.1  90.3 (BTV)

SEA:  +0.9  6.7

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA  

+1.9   +1.7   +1.2     - 0.8    +2.0   +1.8      - 0.5   +1.2   +2.1 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

25"     47"      52"       49"      51"      83"       57"    13"      77" 

[Scotty Lightning]

8 hours ago, Stebo said:

I know some people who would lose their minds if we got 80" of snow, would be the 2nd snowiest winter on record for DTW.

What if someone was thinking of Winter 2013-14?

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.6     2.5      2.0         2.5      2.6     1.4        2.7      1.7     2.2

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

32.5"  50.0"  57.5"      48.5"   53.5"   110.0"    52.0"  3.5"    93.0" 

 

NYC Metro Subforum

[bkviking]

DCA:  +1.8 24”

NYC:  +1.8  55”

BOS:  +1.9 71”

ORD:  +0.2  35”

ATL:  +0.4 39” (DTW)

IAH:  +0.4  78” (BUF)

DEN:  +1.9  60”

PHX:  +1.8   78” (BTV)

SEA:  +1.5 18”

[Roger Smith]

+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 __ +0.8 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.2

18.0" _28.0" _45.0" __ 30.5"_ 35.5"_ 90.0" __ 60.5" _ 78.0" _ 10.0"

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL/DTW_IAH/BUF _DEN_PHX/BTV _ SEA

Good luck everyone, contests are very very close

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

3.5     2.9      2.4         0.0      0.0     0.0       -1.5     3.7     1.9

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___DEN _ SEA _ BTV

12.5"  25.0"  37.5"      41.0"   43.5"   89.0"     52.5"  4.5"   73.0" 

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for November 2018

 

_ No late penalties so far, Jaxjagman has not entered yet.

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

RodneyS __________________ +3.5 _+2.9 _+2.4 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___--1.5 _+3.7 _+1.9

RJay ______________________+3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 __ +1.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 ___+1.0 _+1.0 __ 0.0

DonSutherland.1 ____________+2.6 _+2.5 _+2.0 __ +2.5 _+2.6 _+1.4 ___+2.7 _+1.7 _+2.2

hudsonvalley21 _____________+2.2 _+2.2 _+2.4 __ +1.4 _+1.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _+1.3 _--0.2

dmillz25 ___________________+2.0 _+2.2 _+2.5 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.1 ___--1.5 _+1.0 __0.0

wxallannj __________________+1.9 _+1.7 _+1.2 __ --0.8 _+2.0 _+1.8 ___--0.5 _+1.2 _+2.1

 

___ Consensus _____________ +1.9 _+1.8 _+2.0 __ +0.7 _+1.9 _+1.2 ___+0.8 _+1.3 _+0.7 

 

BKViking __________________ +1.8 _+1.8 _+1.9 __ +0.2 _+0.4 _+0.4 ___+1.9 _+1.8 _+1.5

wxdude64 _________________ +1.6 _+1.8 _+2.1 __ +0.6 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+1.8 _+2.1 _+0.9

Tom ______________________ +1.6 _+1.7 _+1.9 __ +0.7 _+1.8 _+2.2 ___--0.2 _--0.2 _--0.5

Stebo ____________________ +1.2 _+1.0 _+0.8 __ +0.5 _+1.9 _+1.2 ___--0.8 _--1.1 _--1.2

Roger Smith _______________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.8 __ +0.8 _+2.0 _+1.5 ___+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.2

Scotty Lightning _____________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 __ +0.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___+0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5

___ Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

__________________________________________________

Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts -- Normal is colder at DCA, NYC, BOS, and equal for ATL, IAH.

Snowfall contest will be posted after 15th -- you can edit until then if you want. 

[Roger Smith]

Anomaly tracker and forecasts ... ... ... color code shows the actual value that compares with various forecasts.

 

_date_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

___ Actual anomalies ___

_08________ (7d) ____________ +4.5 _+5.6 _+7.3 ___--1.5 _+1.2 _+3.4 ___--2.1 _+0.9 _+5.9

_15_______ (14d) ____________ --0.6 _--0.1 _+2.1 ___--7.4 _--2.9 _--4.9 ___--5.1 _--1.2 _+2.5

_22________(21d) ____________--1.8 _--2.3 _--0.7 ___--7.4 _--3.5 _--6.1 ___--3.0 _--0.9 _+2.7

_25_______ (24d) ____________ --3.0 _--4.1 _--2.6 ___--6.0 _--3.8 _--5.1 ___--1.4 _--0.8 _+2.6

_29________(28d) ____________--2.9 _--3.5 _--1.9 ___--6.2 _--4.4 _--5.0 ___--0.7 _--0.3 _+3.0

___ 7d NWS forecasts ___

_08______ (p 14d) ____________+1.0 _+1.3 _+1.8 ___--6.0 _--3.5 _--3.0 ___--4.7 _--1.2 _+2.0

_15______ (p 21d) ____________--2.0 _--1.8 _--1.5 ___--7.8 _--4.0 _--5.0 ___--5.5 _--1.5 _+1.8

_22______ (p 28d) ____________--2.8 _--2.5 _--2.2 ___--6.0 _--4.0 _--4.8 ___--1.5 _--0.6 _+2.5

___ Longer range forecasts incl GFS ___

_08______ (p 24d) ____________ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___--2.0 __0.0 _+0.5 ___--1.0 __0.0 _+0.5

_15______ (p 30d) ____________ --2.6 _--2.5 _--2.4 ___--6.0 _--3.5 _--4.0 ___--3.5 _--1.0 _+1.5

_21______ (p 30d) ____________ --2.6 _--2.5 _--2.4 ___--6.0 _--3.5 _--4.0 ___--1.0 _--0.5 _+2.0

___ Updated provisionals from 25th to 30th (NWS) ___

_25 ______ (p30d) ____________ --2.5 _--3.0 _--2.0 ___--5.0 _--4.0 _--4.0 ___--1.0 _--0.5 _+2.0

_29 ______ (p30d) ____________ --2.8 _--3.0 _--2.0 ___--6.0 _--4.0 _--4.3 ___--0.5 _--0.5 _+3.0

___ Final anomalies for November 2018 ___

_________ (30d) ______________--3.1_--3.3_--1.8 ___--5.7_--3.7_--3.6 ___--0.5_--0.3_+3.1

 

8th _ Much colder next week in most of the country, but the interval 15th to 24th on the GFS appears somewhat warmer than average for most,

__ __ __ have estimated about +3 to +5 for the period, which brings most of the large negatives created next week back towards normal in central regions.

15th _ The NWS 7d forecasts for the 14th worked out quite well in general, average error under 0.9 deg with IAH falling a bit more than expected, -24 anomaly on 13th and -21 on 14th quite extreme. The end of month projection is now quite cold in the east with little if any warming shown on the GFS beyond the cold seven day NWS period to 21st, have set anomalies for the nine remaining days at -4 in east, -2 central and near normal in west for that extension of the p21d forecasts. Outcomes are generally colder than all forecasts. Scoring looks like I could do it now since it will be mostly a case of rank ordering boosted scores to a max of 60 per station, PHX and SEA at least will have some actual scores.

22nd _ The NWS 7d forecasts were generally good, except for DEN which stayed warmer than expected by over 2 degrees. This has led to significant adjustments of end of month provisional there, and also slight boosts for PHX and SEA. The other six locations will apparently finish well below scoring range and the previous estimates are being held with less than 0.2 adjustments suggested. Scoring for these six will go from rank order "max 60" rule even if they all gain a full degree of warming (ORD needs 3). Minor changes to provisional scoring (mostly extra points) will be seen shortly. 

25th _ Comparing actuals through 24 days with the 16-day extended forecast made on the 8th, it appears that either the GFS underestimated the cold outbreak or I made a large subjective error in reading the output. Might have been a combination of those two things, but the forecasts were about as far off as our earlier consensus. West fared somewhat better. The adjustments to end of month anomalies are too small to remove any of the first six from "ranked order max 60" scoring, and the three western provisionals are being held as previously, hence no changes needed in the provisional scoring tables. 

29th _ The NWS forecasts for the past week were quite close (average error .42 deg) but two of the three western stations are running a little warmer and the provisionals (and scoring) will need adjusting. The other six locations will all finish cold enough to maintain the status quo on scoring even though slight adjustments have been made to the provisionals. BOS is slightly out of range for raw scoring and the other five are quite far from producing a raw maximum of 60. 

Dec 1st _ Final anomalies are being posted overnight, those in bold are confirmed, the rest are based on known values for all 30 days but not yet posted. So far, the maximum raw scores for the eastern and central six are 18 (DCA), 14 (NYC), 54 (BOS), 9 (ORD), 26 (ATL) and 28 (IAH). Quite a few raw scores would be zero. Thus the requirement under the rules to set the scores with max of 60 for these locations (Normal can be higher) and an equal progression down to 5 points, for the 12 participants. Ties made this a bit irregular, for future scoring I may tweak this rule to read off a graph so that small differences don't turn into large point differentials. But anyway, we all got points we did not really earn in November. The three western stations will have the usual scoring and we did better as a group there. Because the scoring is already worked out for the eastern and central locations, that scoring table can be regarded as final now and the western scores are now also final.  

[Roger Smith]

2018-19 Snowfall forecast contest

... moved to Dec thread ... this represents situation at end of Nov 2018 ...

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

 

Snowfall to date __________ 1.4 __ 6.4 __ 0.1 ___12.7 __ 6.7 __13.5 ___ 6.7 __ 0.0 __19.4

 

RJay __________________ 33.0 _54.0 _ 70.0 __ 30.0 _ 38.0 _100.0___ 65.0 __ 6.0 _100.0

DonSutherland.1 ________ 32.5 _ 50.0 _ 57.5 __ 48.5 _ 53.5 _110.0___ 52.0 __ 3.5 _ 93.0

Tom __________________ 26.3 _ 56.4_ 65.6 __ 29.6 _ 41.6 _ 95.2 ___ 62.3 __ 1.9 _ 89.6

wxallannj ______________ 25.0 _ 47.0 _ 52.0 __ 49.0 _ 51.0 _ 83.0 ___ 57.0 _ 13.0_ 77.0

Scotty Lightning _________25.0 _ 42.0 _ 75.0__ 70.0_ 80.0_120.0___75.0 _ 10.0 _ 85.0

BKViking _______________24.0 _ 55.0 _ 71.0 __ 35.0 _ 39.0 _ 78.0 ___ 60.0 _ 18.0 _ 78.0

 

___ Consensus _________ 24.0 _ 44.5 _ 60.9 __ 37.5 _ 44.7 _ 92.6 ___ 58.5 __ 6.4 _ 88.8

 

dmillz25 _______________ 24.0 _ 53.0 _ 67.0 __ 40.0 _ 37.7 _ 85.0 ___ 57.0 __ 5.0 _ 90.0

wxdude64 _____________ 22.9 _ 40.6 _ 59.7 __ 38.9 _ 45.9 _ 98.4 ___ 67.6 __ 6.7 _ 90.3

hudsonvalley21 _________ 22.0 _ 40.0 _ 62.0 __ 36.0 _ 48.2 _101.5___ 51.0 __ 5.7 _ 88.0

Roger Smith ____________18.0 _ 28.0 _ 45.0 __ 30.5 _ 35.5 _ 90.0 ___ 60.5 _ 10.0 _ 78.0

Stebo _________________ 13.2 _ 34.3 _ 53.5 __ 33.5 _ 47.0 _ 87.0 ___ 37.0 _ 10.7 _ 97.0

RodneyS _______________12.5 _ 25.0 _ 37.5 __ 41.0 _ 43.5 _ 89.0 ___ 52.5 __ 4.5 _ 73.0

_____________________________________________________________________

High forecasts in bold, low forecasts in italic. 

Consensus is median, average of 6th and 7th ranked forecasts. 

Normal will be added later from NWS daily climate data snowfalls late in season. 

... watch for updates to season totals and this post will migrate to new months as we move along ... 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for November 2018

Scoring for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL, and IAH will be based on "minimum progression" as raw scores were all under 60 (except for BOS, way under). Scores will fall in the progression from 60 to 5 points for rank ordered scores of the twelve forecasters. Normal when closer will get 65 points. Otherwise normal and consensus are scored from their position relative to the twelve rank ordered scores. With twelve, it's a simple progression, from 60 down to 5 points. The three western locations score normally this month.  

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___DEN_PHX_SEA __ west ___ TOTAL

 

___ Normal ________________65 _ 65 _ 65 __ 195 __ 55 _ 60 _ 60__ 175__ 370 ___90 _ 94 _ 38 ___ 222 ___ 592

___ Normal _raw scores _____ 38 _ 34 _ 64 ___ 136 __ 00 _ 26 _ 28 __ 054 __ 190 ____90 _ 94 _ 38 ___ 222 ___ (412)

Scotty Lightning ____________ 60 _ 60 _ 60 __180 __ 45 _ 50 _ 50 __ 145 __ 325 ___80 _ 74 _ 48 ___ 202 ____527

Stebo _____________________50 _ 60 _ 55 __ 165 __ 45 _ 30 _ 35 __ 110 __ 275 ___ 94 _ 84 _ 14 ___ 192 ____ 467

wxallannj __________________30 _ 45 _ 45 __ 120 __ 60 _ 20 _ 15 __ 095 __ 215 ___100_ 70 _ 80 ___ 250____ 465

BKViking __________________ 35 _ 35 _ 40 __ 110 __ 50 _ 55 _ 55 __ 160 __ 270  ___ 52 _ 58 _ 68 ___ 178 ____ 448

Roger Smith _______________ 60 _ 60 _ 55 __ 175 __ 25 _ 20 _ 20 __ 065 __ 240 ___ 50 _ 54 _ 82 ___ 186 ____ 426

Tom ______________________45 _ 45 _ 40 __ 130 __ 30 _ 35 _ 05 __ 070 __ 200 ___ 94 _ 98 _ 28 ___ 220 ____ 420

RodneyS __________________ 05 _ 10 _ 20 __ 035 __ 55 _ 60 _ 60 __ 175__ 210 ___ 80 _ 20 _ 76 ___ 176 ____ 386

 

___ Consensus _____________ 30 _ 35 _ 30 __ 095 __ 30 _ 30 _ 35 __ 095 __ 190 ___ 74 _ 68 _ 52 ___ 194 ____ 384

 

wxdude64 _________________ 45 _ 35 _ 25 __ 105 __ 35 _ 40 _ 30 __ 105 __ 210 ___ 54 _ 52 _ 56 ___ 162 ____ 372

dmillz25 ___________________25 _ 25 _ 10 __ 060 __ 20 _ 50 _ 45 __ 115 __ 175 ___ 80 _ 74 _ 38 ___ 192 ____ 367

hudsonvalley21 _____________20 _ 25 _ 20 __ 065 __ 10 _ 30 _ 45 __ 085 __ 150 ___ 66 _ 68 _ 34 ___ 168 ____ 318

DonSutherland.1 ____________15 _ 15 _ 30 __ 060 __ 05 _ 05 _ 25 __ 035 __ 095 ___ 36 _ 60 _ 82 ___ 178 ____ 273

RJay ______________________10 _ 05 _ 05 __ 020 __ 20 _ 10 _ 10 __ 040 __ 060 ___ 70 _ 74 _ 38 ___ 182 ____ 242

_________________________________________________________________________

color codes are preserved for forecasts, these go bold if the extreme forecast is high score. 

 

Regional Rumble scores for November 2018

 

Region ______ eastern _ central _ western ___ TOTAL ___ new annual total

 

___ Normal _______195 _____ 175 _____ 222 _______ 592 _____ 5248

Philadelphia ______ 180 _____ 145 _____ 220 _______ 545 _____ 6427 (3)

New York City _____120 _____ 160 _____ 250 _______ 530 _____ 6820 (1)

Great Lakes / OV __ 165 _____ 110 _____ 192 _______ 467 _____ 5112 (5)

Mid-Atlantic ______ 105 _____ 175 _____ 176 _______ 456 _____ 6630 (2)

Central+Western __ 175 _____ 065 _____ 186 _______ 426 _____ 6140 (4)

___ Consensus ____ 095 _____ 095 _____ 194 _______ 384 _____ 5645

_____________________________________________________________________________

 

[Roger Smith]

--- -- <<<<==== Updated Annual Scoring Jan - Nov 2018 ====>>>> -- ----

 

  Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) 

... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red)

... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals.

... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown.

... May best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked*

... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five  three months including May by end of year (so far only two, May and July).

... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months)

... same protocol will be applied to any high scores of Mercurial, JAN high scores c/e and all nine, and four other added regular forecaster high scores marked ^

... ... but H2O (one ATL Jan) was tied already so no high score added (dmillz25 had same score marked as high score already).

... in the western contest, Cerakoter1984 had high score for PHX in April, regular forecaster RodneyS adds one there (marked #)

... same for NRGJeff's high score PHX in January (Rodney S adds another, so the # denotes 2 added now)

... note the cut-off for this will be three months entered, meaning H20_Town_WX, mappy, Orangeburgwx retain sole possession of their high scores. 

... if any of the 2-forecast people mentioned above enter again, the relevant regular forecaster add-ons will be withdrawn. 

 

 FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS __ east ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

Roger Smith ________752 _748 _725 ___ 2225 ____ 571 _654 _542 ____1767 ___ 3992 __3*4*2 14*1 .3.1 __ MAY

wxallannj __________ 640 _651 _695 ____1986 ____ 584 _584 _666 ____1834 ___ 3820 ___ 001 101 .0.1 

T Scotty Lightning  ___627 _683 _662 ___ 1972 ____ 558 _564 _655 ____1777 ___ 3749 __3^33 203 .4^.1_JAN^ OCT NOV

T BKViking _________ 621 _660 _656 ____1937 ____ 538 _575 _699 ____1812 ___ 3749 ___ 001 000 .0.1

 

___Consensus ______ 627 _630 _638 ____1895 ____ 549 _603 _676 ____1828 ___ 3723 ___ 000 100 .0.0

 

DonSutherland.1 ____ 639 _625 _630 ____1894 ____ 504 _662 _640 ____1806 ___ 3700 ___ 000 221 .0.2 

hudsonvalley21 _____ 585 _615 _606 ____1806 ____ 493 _609 _768 ___ 1860___ 3666 ___ 100 001 .0.0

Stebo _____________ 585 _616 _609 ____1810 ____ 568 _594 _681 ____1843 ___ 3653 ___ 020 112 .0.1

wxdude64 _________ 664 _647 _616 ____1927 ____ 536 _566 _623 ____1725 ___ 3652 ___34^0 002 .2.1

Tom ______________ 634 _632 _647 ____1913 ____ 519 _629 _586 ____1734 ___ 3647 ___ 101 000 .0.0 _ JUN

RodneyS ___________577 _592 _578 ____1747 ____ 574 _595 _660 ____1829 ___ 3576 ___ 210 212 .0.5 _ MAR, JUL, SEP

RJay ______________592 _578 _607 ____1777 ____ 469 _604 _636 ____1709 ___ 3486 ___ 123 011 .3.2 _ APR, AUG

jaxjagman (-1 mo) __ 582 _587 _581 ____1750 ____ 498 _575 _645 ____1718 ___ 3468 ___ 001 000 .0.1

dmillz25 ___________ 560 _546 _523 ____1629 ____ 495 _592 _693 ____1780 ___ 3409 ___ 000 011 .0.0

___Normal _________553 _628 _604 ____1785 ____ 537 _531 _553 ____1621 ___ 3406 ___ 112 222 .1.1__JAN^ NOV

so_whats_happening*_327 _375_398 ____1100 ____ 360 _423 _400 ____1183 ___ 2283 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB

mappy (5/11) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0

Orangeburgwx_(5/11) _179 _235 _269 ____ 683 ____ 154 _135 _233 ____ 522 ____1205 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0

afewUniverses bn (2) _ 114 _122 _144 ____ 380 ____ 139 _108 _180 ____ 427 ____ 807 ___ 110 011 .0.0

Mercurial (2/11) _____ 146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN

H2O_Town_WX (3/11)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0

H2O ___(2/11) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0

nrgJeff _ (2/11) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___

buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___

Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ 

tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___

CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___

_________ (1 mo F) _^^

note: * so_whats_happening missed July, September, October, November

all shown (2/11) missed March to November, Orangeburgwx (5/11) missed January, July to November

 ... mappy (5/11) missed June to November, and H2OTown_wx (3/11) missed April to November.

  

 Part Two: Western and All Nine contests

 ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals

 for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring ... see note before

first section for explanation of symbols beside best scores ...

 

 FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank)

Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 609 _ 750 _ 716 ____ 2075 __________1 1 2 __ Apr, Aug __ 5824 (= 1) _OCT, NOV

RodneyS_______________ 690 _ 694 _ 637 ____ 2021 __________ 2 4#2 __May, Oct__ 5597 (= 7)  MAR,APR,JUL

wxallannj ______________ 614 _ 746 _ 603 _____1963 __________2 1 1 __ Mar, Nov __ 5783 (= 3)

BKViking _______________515 _ 729 _ 718 ____ 1962 __________ 0 1 1 ____________ 5711 (= 4) __ JUN

hudsonvalley21 _________ 579 _ 669 _ 683 _____1931 __________ 0 2 2 __ Jul ______ 5607 (= 6)

DonSutherland.1 ________ 538 _ 698 _ 689 _____1925 __________2^1 1 __ Jan _____ 5625 (= 5) _ JAN^

__ Consensus __________ 560 _ 716 _ 646 _____1922 __________ 0 1 0 ____________5645 (= 5)

Tom __________________ 626 _ 700 _ 578 _____1904 __________ 1 1 0 ____________5551 (= 8) 

RJay __________________570 _ 651 _ 656 _____1877 __________ 3 1 1 __ Sep ______5363 (= 9) __ SEP

dmillz25 _______________ 541 _ 714 _ 611 _____1866 __________ 0 1 0 _ Jun  ______ 5275 (=11)

Roger Smith ____________467 _ 622 _ 720 _____1809 __________ 2 0 2 __ Jan ______ 5801 (= 2) __ MAY

__Normal ______________578 _ 648 _ 616 _____1842 __________ 2 1 1 ____________ 5248 (=13) __ FEB

wxdude64 _____________ 544 _ 596 _ 541 _____1681 __________ 0 1 0 ____________ 5333 (=10) 

jaxjagman __(-1 mo) ____ 427 _ 577 _ 582 _____1586 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 5054 (=13)

Stebo _________________ 444 _ 647 _ 368 _____1459 __________ 1 0 0 __ Nov _____ 5112 (=12)

so_whats_happening* ____313 _ 445 _ 379 _____1137 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 3420 (=14) __ FEB

Orangeburgwx (5/11)_____251 _ 345 _ 289 _____ 885 __________ 1 3 1 __ Feb ______ 2090 (=15)

mappy (5/11) ___________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 1722 (=16)

H2OTown__WX (3/11) ___ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=20)

afewUniv bn (2 mo May,Jul)132 _ 172 _ 024 _____ 328 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1135 (=17)

Mercurial __ (2/11) ______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=18) __ JAN

nrgJeff ____ _(2/11) _____ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21)

H2O ____ (2/11) ________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19)

cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr) _ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22)

tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24)

buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23)

CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25)

 __________________________________________________________________________________________________

  

Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - November _) 

 

REGION _________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL __ behind leader

 

New York City _____ 2273 ____ 2186 ____ 2361 _____ 6820 ______0

Mid-Atlantic _______ 2267 ____ 2220 ____ 2143 _____ 6630 ____190

Philadelphia _______ 2321 ____ 1959 ____ 2147 _____ 6427 ____393

Central + Western __2379 ____ 1906 ____ 1854 _____ 6140 ____ 680

__ Consensus _____ 1895 ____ 1828 ____ 1922 _____ 5645 ____1175

__ Normal ________ 1785 _____1621 ____ 1842 _____ 5248 ___ 1572

Great Lakes Oh Val _ 1810 ____ 1843 _____1459 _____ 5112 ___ 1708

Tenn Valley _______ 1798 ____ 1718 ____ 1596 _____ 5112 ___ 1706

_______________________________________________________________________

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Four seasons contest update -- final scoring for the 2017-18 four seasons

 

AUTUMN 2018 (Sept, Oct, Nov)

 

______________________ score ______________ score _______________ score (totals)

FORECASTER ______ (original six) __ Points ___  (western) __ Points ____ (all nine) __ Points

 

wxallannj _____________1083 ____ 6__________ 596 ______ 7________ 1679 _____10

Scotty Lightning _______ 1110 ___ 10 __________537 ______ 3 ________1647 _____ 7

RodneyS _____________1047 ____ 2 __________ 498 _____10 ________ 1645 _____ 6

Tom _________________1073 ____ 5 __________567 ______ 5 ________1640 _____ 5

BKViking _____________ 1068 ____ 4 __________518 ______ 1 ________1586 _____ 4

___ Consensus ________ 1039 ____1 __________536 ______ 2 ________1575 _____ 3

Stebo ________________ 1109 ___ 7 __________ 464 ______ -- _______ 1573 _____ 3

dmillz25 ______________ 971 ____ 1 __________ 568 ______ 6 ________1539 _____ 2

Roger Smith ___________1048 ___ 3 __________ 487 ______ 1 ________1535 _____ 1

___Normal ____________ 954 ___ -- ___________532 ______ 2 ________1486 _____ 1

hudsonvalley21_________952 ____ -- __________ 531 ______ 2 ________1483 _____ 1

Don Sutherland.1 _______960 ____ 1 __________ 494 ______ 1 ________1454 _____ 1

RJay _________________911 ____ -- __________ 542 ______ 4 ________1453 _____ --

wxdude64 _____________1012 ___ 1 __________ 359 ______ --_______ 1371 _____ --

jaxjagman ___(2 mo)___ 772 _____-- __________ 352 ______ -- _______ 1124 _____ --

 

 

Four Seasons total points to date -- final standings for 2017-18 four seasons contest

... listed in order of all nine total points ...

 

FORECASTER ____ (original six) __ Points __ (western) __ Points __ (all nine) __ Points

 

 

wxallannj _________ 2, 1, 10, 6__ 19 ______ 1, 5, 1, 7___14 ___  2, 3,10,10 __25

Scotty Lightning _____10, 0, 4, 10__24 _____ 10, 6, 1, 3 __ 20 ___10, 0, 2, 7 __19

Don Sutherland.1 _____5, 4, 5, 1___15 _____ 7, 4, 6, 1 ___ 18 ____6, 4, 6, 1 __ 17

RodneyS ____________ 0, 7, 1, 2 _ 10 ______ 1,10, 4,10 _ 25 ____0,10, 1, 6 __ 17

BKViking ___________ 3, 0, 7, 4 ___14 _____ 1, 7, 1, 1____10 ____ 3, 2, 7, 4 __16

Tom _______________ 0, 5, 6, 5__ 16 ______ 6, 1, 1, 5 __ 13 ____0, 5, 5, 5 __ 15

___ Consensus ____2, 1, 5, 1__ 9 _____ 3, 4, 2, 2 __11 ___ 4, 1, 7, 3 _ 15

Roger Smith _________1,10, 2, 3 __16 ______ 5, 0, 0, 1 __ 6 ____ 4, 7, 0, 1___12

hudsonvalley21 ______ 7, 1, 1, 0 ___9 ______ 3, 2,10, 2 __17 ____7, 1, 3, 1__ 12

___Normal __________ 7, 0, 0, 0 __ 7 ______ 6, 0, 0, 2 ___ 8 ____ 7, 0, 0, 1 __ 8

wxdude64 __________ 4, 6, 0, 1 __ 11 ______ 0, 0, 4, 0___ 4 ____ 1, 6, 0, 0 __ 7

dmillz25 _____________1, 0, 1, 1 __ 3 ______ 0, 1, 7, 3 __11 _____0, 0, 5, 2 __ 7

so_whats_happening __ 6. 0, 0, 0 __ 6 ______ 2, 3, 0, 0 ___ 5 ____ 5, 0, 0, 0 __ 5

RJay ________________1, 1, 0, 0 __ 2 ______ 0, 2, 5, 4 ___11 ____1, 1, 1, 0 __ 3

Stebo _______________0, 2, 0, 7 __ 9 ______ 0, 0, 0, 0 ___ 0 ____ 0, 0, 0, 3 __ 3

H2O_Town__WX ______0, 0, 0, 0 __ 0 ______ 5, 0, 0, 0 ___ 5 ____ 1, 0, 0, 0 __ 1

jaxjagman ___________ 0, 0, 3, 0 __ 3 ______ 0, 0, 0, 0 ___ 0 ____ 0, 0, 1, 0 __ 1

 

(only forecasters with any points are in table)

 

Congrats to wxallannj for winning the four seasons contest (all nine), Scotty Lightning takes the "original six" portion and RodneyS wins the west.

[Roger Smith]

Extreme forecast report 
 

All six of these locations -- DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL, IAH, are wins for coldest forecasts.

Normal has five of these shared with coldest forecast since that was either a small positive anomaly (DCA, NYC, BOS) or zero (ATL, IAH).

 

Scotty Lightning shares wins at DCA, NYC and BOS (+1.0, +1.0, +0.5) vs -3.1, -3.3, and -1.8.

Roger Smith shares wins at DCA and NYC.

Stebo also shares a win for NYC.

wxallannj has sole possession of ORD with a forecast of -0.8 (actual was -5.7).

RodneyS has wins for ATL and IAH with forecasts of 0.0 (actuals -3.7, -3.6). 

DEN ... At -0.5, this was a close call, but it failed to qualify (at -0.7 to -1.1 it would have been a win for Stebo (-0.8) and a shared loss for coldest forecasts RodneyS and dmillz25 (-1.5). As fourth coldest forecast is -0.5 (wxallannj), that is the high score and DEN fails to qualify.

PHX ... Unlike the other seven, this one produced a loss and a win. The final value is -0.3, and Stebo has coldest forecast at -1.1. The second coldest forecast was -0.2 from Tom. This makes Tom a winner and Stebo gets a loss, (-0.7 would reverse the order ... Normal is not in contention for PHX unless it actually finishes closer to zero, as Normal shares the win for outcomes --0.1 to +0.4.) 

SEA has finished at +3.1, a shared win for DonSutherland.1 and Roger Smith (+2.2) with warmest forecasts.

___________________________________________________________________

updated annual standings

 

Roger Smith __________17###-1 (can fall to 14-1 see below)

RodneyS _____________12-3

__ Normal ___________ 12-7

RJay ________________10-2

Scotty Lightning (SD)____9-1

wxdude64 ____________ 6-4

DonSutherland1 ________5-1

hudsonvalley21 ________ 4-0

AfewUniversesbelown.. __4-0

wxallannj _____________4-0

Orangeburgwx ________ 4#-0* (can fall to 3-0 see below)

so_whats_happening ___ 2-0

Stebo ________________ 2-1

Mercurial _____________ 1-0

NRG Jeff ______________1-0

BKViking ______________1-0

cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0

H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1

Tom _________________ 1-1

* no decision (Mar for IAH)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

# wins excluding "a few Univ b n" will be withdrawn if a few Univ b n enters a third contest.