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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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The surface temperatures are going to be warm, but soundings indicate that wet bulb could be right around freezing. As @purduewx80 indicated, we're a bit unstable. The HRRR wants to bring through a low topped squall line between 18z and 21z. You can see some snow starting to breakout on radar over NE PA. Really not sure why the NAM has been so consistently North. Even the GFS is further South.

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November continues to be the only fall month of the 2010's that can generate any cold around here.

NYC 2010's September temperature departures

2018.....+2.7

2017.....+2.5

2016.....+3.8

2015.....+6.5

2014.....+1.7

2013.....-0.1

2012....+0.8

2011....+2.0

2010.....+3.1

NYC 2010's October temperature departures

2018....+0.8

2017.....+7.2

2016.....+1.9

2015.....+1.1

2014......+2.7

2013......+3.3

2012......+1.1

2011......+0.2

2010.....+1.2

November

2018...-3.4 so far

2017....-1.1

2016....+2.1

2015....+5.1

2014.....-2.4

2013....-2.4

2012....-3.8

2011....+4.2

2010....+0.2

 
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6 hours ago, Toekneeweather said:

Next weekend looks good for a big storm. The midweek system disappeared unfortunately. Radar looks good for quick hitting snow showers mixed with sleet and rain for the next 3 hours.

It might be better this way.  The midweek system being further offshore may allow the next weekend system to really amplify.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes even just flakes in the air is a trace of snow.

I didn't know why some misunderstood that, it's obviously not rain, whether anything sticks to the ground or not, it's still snow.

No it isn’t you can’t record a trace of snow if there are twenty flurries that don’t even hit the ground. You actually need more like a snow shower, we already went through this

 

from national weather service 

Snow often melts as it lands. If snow continually melts as it lands, and the accumulation never reaches 0.1 inches on your measuring surface, snowfall should be recorded as a trace (T) and record in your remarks that the "snow melted as it landed

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1 hour ago, Toekneeweather said:

No it isn’t you can’t record a trace of snow if there are twenty flurries that don’t even hit the ground. You actually need more like a snow shower, we already went through this

 

from national weather service 

Snow often melts as it lands. If snow continually melts as it lands, and the accumulation never reaches 0.1 inches on your measuring surface, snowfall should be recorded as a trace (T) and record in your remarks that the "snow melted as it landed

But doesn't this contradict your point?  If there are flurries flying around and they melt  as they hit the ground, a trace should be recorded according to this criteria.

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13 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

But doesn't this contradict your point?  If there are flurries flying around and they melt  as they hit the ground, a trace should be recorded according to this criteria.

They have to wet the ground don’t you see it on the text that national weather service states. Today we had a trace of frozen stuff but longbeachsurf was talking about a few snow flurries that is not a trace. Flakes flying around and never really wetting the ground is not a trace. Maybe I’m wrong but I can picture a trace basically some white rain and boom it’s a trace

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6 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said:

They have to wet the ground don’t you see it on the text that national weather service states. Today we had a trace of frozen stuff but longbeachsurf was talking about a few snow flurries that is not a trace. Flakes flying around and never really wetting the ground is not a trace. Maybe I’m wrong but I can picture a trace basically some white rain and boom it’s a trace

Well it says the snow has to melt when it hits the ground, not that it actually has to "wet" the ground.  I could be wrong too, just how I'm seeing it.

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