November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[BombsAway1288]

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Atleast we are getting some nice clear days in a row, really sick and tired of all this rain.

 

FWIW Mr G sounded pretty definitive about a change to much colder weather starting Dec 5th or so.  He was deadly accurate in 1993-94 with the late night updates.

Yes because that correlates well to how he's going to perform in predicting the long term in 2018  

FWIW I think Mr. G is garbage and only on there for show these days at least.

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, Rjay said:

Neither do I tbh but they're really ugly. 

If that black hole over Alaska becomes a permanent feature, then you could kiss this winter goodbye. 

Very bad signs heading forward.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Yes because that correlates well to how he's going to perform in predicting the long term in 2018  

FWIW I think Mr. G is garbage and only on there for show these days at least.

I know, but I was wondering what he was using that made him so positive about what was going to happen.  It struck me by his tone how sure he was, something you never see from a meteorologist, because this isn't an exact science.

[LibertyBell]

It's an el nino which tend to be backloaded winters, dont know why people are so frazzled.  We had a bonus 6" snowstorm in November, if we get another one of those in December and thats it, then we're well ahead of the game.  Expect the main action to be post Jan 20.

[BombsAway1288]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

If that black hole over Alaska becomes a permanent feature, then you could kiss this winter goodbye. 

Very bad signs heading forward.

I know what you're saying is true but jeez you're pessimistic with everything for the winter already on every post. It's not even December and the area has already had a 6" snowstorm! maybe back off of the pessimistic hyperbole a bit

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

If that black hole over Alaska becomes a permanent feature, then you could kiss this winter goodbye. 

Very bad signs heading forward.

Still has that Nina look to it. Eventually, it will fade once the effects of the El Nino kick in. 

[CIK62]

Rest of Nov. averaging 43degs., or just Normal.

Month to date is  -3.4[45.0].     Should end Nov. about  -2.9[44.7].

All 8 days averaging 46 degs., or about 4degs. AN.

[Neblizzard]

2 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

I know what you're saying is true but jeez you're pessimistic with everything for the winter already on every post. It's not even December and the area has already had a 6" snowstorm! maybe back off of the pessimistic hyperbole a bit

He does that every winter.  Hugs every single model run.  

[wxallannj]

1.17" of rain with this system.

7.17" for November (4th wettest so far;  wettest 9.09 in 1988)

64.70"  for the year (also 4th wettest so far;  wettest 75.16" in 2011)

 

Records began 1973.

[Toekneeweather]

I think December 5th and on are favorable but these cutters keep on giving for now. Let’s see how models handle the pattern next week. Models keep flipping each run!

[bluewave]

Officially the wettest November on record at ISP. 

ISP.....#1.....8.39

JFK......#3....7.78

BDR......#3...7.30

EWR....#4....7.93

LGA......#6...7.06

NYC......#7...7.57

[JerseyWx]

7 hours ago, rgwp96 said:

1.72 was it radar was way over done.  Other 1.12 today . Almost 72 inches for the year and 9.48 for the month 

Wow I'm surprised.  Felt like a lot more than that.

[MJO812]

Snowy day here in Cooperstown 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

How bad are the weeklies ? 

 

Old week 3 and 4 for the period ending Dec 10.

 

Now look at the new week 2 ending Dec 10

 

Careful buying week 3 thru 6 again.  This product is as bad as the CFS V2 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

If that black hole over Alaska becomes a permanent feature, then you could kiss this winter goodbye. 

Very bad signs heading forward.

Your post in the NE thread is a joke. Obviously went in there trolling. Winter is over before it started? 01/02 repeat coming?

i would happily bet my life savings you are so so so wrong on that. Your posts had been better for a while and now your straight trolling. This is what keeps quality posters away. 

[Toekneeweather]

Gfs para has 2 snowstorms for the next week and half. Looks cold after 3rd of December and stormy

[hudsonvalley21]

4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Snowy day here in Cooperstown 

Hope you're stopping in at the hall of fame.  no outside baseball at Doubleday Field tho.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1059 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018

NYZ045-046-057-281600-
/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0009.181127T1559Z-181129T0000Z/
Chenango-Otsego-Delaware-
Including the cities of Norwich, Oneonta, Delhi, and Walton
1059 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5
  inches in the valleys and 5 to 10 inches over the higher
  terrain. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph.

* WHERE...Chenango, Otsego and Delaware Counties.

* WHEN...Snow will continue through the afternoon with heavier
  snow expected tonight and Wednesday morning. Snow intensities
  will be less than 1 inch per hour during the afternoon with
  between 1 and 2 inches per hour tonight and Wednesday morning.
  Snow will taper in intensity Wednesday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult especially
  over the higher terrain. The hazardous conditions could impact
  the morning or evening commute. Interstate 88 could become very
  dangerous in the higher terrain areas.

 

[bluewave]

Very rare for NYC and Chicago to both have their 4th snowiest November at the same time. This is one of those events that could only be possible during the snowy 2010's. 

Nov 2018 snowfall rankings

NYC....#4....6.4"....... Chicago....#4.....12.0"

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very rare for NYC and Chicago to both have their 4th snowiest November at the same time. This is one of those events that could only be possible during the snowy 2010's. 

Nov 2018 snowfall rankings

NYC....#4....6.4"....... Chicago....#4.....12.0"

 

What were the records they both broke?

[bluewave]

44 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

What were the records they both broke?

Here are the top 5 snowiest Novembers for each station and the seasonal snowfall.

NYC

#1...19.0.....1898.....55.9

#2...14.0.....1882.....44.1

#3...12.8.....1938.....37.1

#4...6.4.......2018.......?

#5...6.3.......1892.....49.4

Chicago

#1...14.8......1940.....52.5

#2...14.5......1895.....53.6

#3...14.3......1951.....66.4

#4...12.0......2018.......?

#5...11.2......2015.....31.2

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Just now, bluewave said:

Here are the top 5 snowiest Novembers for each station and the seasonal snowfall.

NYC

#1...19.0.....1898.....55.9

#2...14.0.....1882.....44.1

#3...12.8.....1938.....37.1

#4...6.4.......2018.......?

#5...6.3.......1892.....49.4

Chicago

#1...14.8......1940.....52.5

#2...14.5......1895.....53.6

#3...14.3......1951.....66.4

#4...12.0......2018.......?

#5...11.2......2015.....31.2

Thank you. Based on these stats. Both of these cities may experience well above average snowfall.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Thank you. Based on these stats. Both of these cities may experience well above average snowfall.

I think the only reason Chicago didn't have above normal snowfall in 15-16 was the super El Nino. Other than that season, 4 out of 4 above average seasons for NYC and 3 out of 4 in Chicago.

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Your post in the NE thread is a joke. Obviously went in there trolling. Winter is over before it started? 01/02 repeat coming?

i would happily bet my life savings you are so so so wrong on that. Your posts had been better for a while and now your straight trolling. This is what keeps quality posters away. 

Lol that's because it was a joke. Many NE posters speak in hyperbole about everything and that's all it was. 

People need to relax. 

[rclab]

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Lol that's because it was a joke. Many NE posters speak in hyperbole about everything and that's all it was. 

People need to relax. 

If you get a box of furry stripped caterpillars from our Northeast siblings, save some for me. I always wanted to find out what they really turn into. As always...

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Hope you're stopping in at the hall of fame.  no outside baseball at Doubleday Field tho.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1059 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018

NYZ045-046-057-281600-
/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0009.181127T1559Z-181129T0000Z/
Chenango-Otsego-Delaware-
Including the cities of Norwich, Oneonta, Delhi, and Walton
1059 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5
  inches in the valleys and 5 to 10 inches over the higher
  terrain. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph.

* WHERE...Chenango, Otsego and Delaware Counties.

* WHEN...Snow will continue through the afternoon with heavier
  snow expected tonight and Wednesday morning. Snow intensities
  will be less than 1 inch per hour during the afternoon with
  between 1 and 2 inches per hour tonight and Wednesday morning.
  Snow will taper in intensity Wednesday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult especially
  over the higher terrain. The hazardous conditions could impact
  the morning or evening commute. Interstate 88 could become very
  dangerous in the higher terrain areas.

 

I love it up there

[Toekneeweather]

Gfs para 18z showed two possible wintry storms for next Tuesday and than again next Sunday. Far away obviously just something we can possibly track in the future.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think the only reason Chicago didn't have above normal snowfall in 15-16 was the super El Nino. Other than that season, 4 out of 4 above average seasons for NYC and 3 out of 4 in Chicago.

15-16 was pretty good for us not only did we get our biggest ever snowstorm, we also had other snows that made it pretty wintry.  Parts of long island had over 50"

[CIK62]

Last 3 days of Nov.  averaging 41degs., or about 2degs. BN.

Month to date is. -3.4[44.8].       Should end Nov. at  -3.2[44.4].

All 8 days are averaging 44degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Still just a 40% chance of at least 3" of Snow, by the 13th.-----GEFS.

[Toekneeweather]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Last 3 days of Nov.  averaging 41degs., or about 2degs. BN.

Month to date is. -3.4[44.8].       Should end Nov. at  -3.2[44.4].

All 8 days are averaging 44degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Still just a 40% chance of at least 3" of Snow, by the 13th.-----GEFS.

GFS and its friend para GFS are both showing snow in the long term. Something to watch.

[TJW014]

27 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said:

GFS and its friend para GFS are both showing snow in the long term. Something to watch.

Yep, looks like we might need to watch Tuesday the 4th. Or at least, keep it in mind