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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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21 hours ago, doncat said:

25° here currently...will rise above freezing in a few hours, but have been below freezing now since 10 pm Wed, so 54 hrs and counting...pretty impressive for so early.

Longest ever such period for November?

I dont remember 1987 or 1989 being this cold for this long.  Dont remember 1976 lol.

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Remainder of Nov. averaging 43degs., or just Normal.

Month to date is  -4.1[44.6].     Should end November at  -3.2[44.3].

All 8 days averaging 44degs., or about 1deg. AN.

46 here 5am-6:30am.

Chicago has all the fun with even a second/third storm on Dec. 06, Dec. 10.(with melting in-between)   We have about a 40% chance of at least 3" bet. 12/5-12/11.

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Wantage NJ 4 sw: (3 w of FWN) 1.53" between 6PM last evening and 230AM today. Yearly total exceeds 60".  Per an early November check with NJ Climate team...2018 I think is going to go down as top 3 wettest years in NJ official record keeping, especially here in nw NJ=treasured water replenishment(wells/large rivers etc). posted 727AM 11/25

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November continues to be the only fall month of the 2010's that can generate any cold around here.

NYC 2010's September temperature departures

2018.....+2.7

2017.....+2.5

2016.....+3.8

2015.....+6.5

2014.....+1.7

2013.....-0.1

2012....+0.8

2011....+2.0

2010.....+3.1

NYC 2010's October temperature departures

2018....+0.8

2017.....+7.2

2016.....+1.9

2015.....+1.1

2014......+2.7

2013......+3.3

2012......+1.1

2011......+0.2

2010.....+1.2

November

2018...-4.1 so far

2017....-1.1

2016....+2.1

2015....+5.1

2014.....-2.4

2013....-2.4

2012....-3.8

2011....+4.2

2010....+0.2

 

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Wantage NJ 4 sw: (3 w of FWN) 1.53" between 6PM last evening and 230AM today. Yearly total exceeds 60".  Per an early November check with NJ Climate team...2018 I think is going to go down as top 3 wettest years in NJ official record keeping, especially here in nw NJ=treasured water replenishment(wells/large rivers etc). posted 727AM 11/25

Always great to have a post from the legendary Walt Drag!!

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Wantage NJ 4 sw: (3 w of FWN) 1.53" between 6PM last evening and 230AM today. Yearly total exceeds 60".  Per an early November check with NJ Climate team...2018 I think is going to go down as top 3 wettest years in NJ official record keeping, especially here in nw NJ=treasured water replenishment(wells/large rivers etc). posted 727AM 11/25

It's such a pleasure having you here with us :) 

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In the wake of the most recent rainstorm, New York City now has 58.14" precipitation for the year. That ranks 2018 as the City's 12th wettest year on record. New York City will very likely receive 60.00" or more precipitation by the end of the year.

Select implied probabilities:

Historic 11/26-12/31 data (1869-2017):

60.00" or more: 91%
62.50" or more: 49%
65.00" or more: 8%

1971-2017 Data:

60.00" or more: 93%
62.50" or more: 62%
65.00" or more: 20%

Least precipitation 11/26-12/31: 0.25", 1955
Most precipitation 11/26-12/31: 10.87", 1973

Another storm should bring 0.50"-1.00" rain with local amounts of 1.50" to the immediate region tomorrow into Tuesday. Data for select cities regarding year-to-date precipitation, 2018's ranking among the wettest years on record, and ranking scenarios for amounts ranging from 0.50" to 1.50":

Rain1126-272018scenarios.jpg

With 1.46" rain, Hamburg, PA surpassed 70.00" annual precipitation for the first time on record. Hamburg has received 70.68" precipitation in 2018. The previous record was 67.61", which was set in 1911. During 2011, that location had what is now its third wettest year on record with 63.95" precipitation.

Locations that have set new annual precipitation records this year include Baltimore, Charleston (WV), Hamburg (PA), Reading, Shirley (NY), and Wilmington (NC). Additional locations will likely set precipitation records by the end of the year.

Finally, despite some discontinuities in the model runs, December still appears on track to wind up colder than normal in the region with above average monthly snowfall.

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