November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[LibertyBell]

Also saw that MPO dropped to -2, their earliest below zero temp on record (and first time in November) also?

 

Anyone know what the low at Monticello was?

 

[snywx]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Also saw that MPO dropped to -2, their earliest below zero temp on record (and first time in November) also?

 

Anyone know what the low at Monticello was?

 

-3

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, snywx said:

-3

Thanks that should be the earliest below zero temperature for either location and maybe even the first time it's ever happened in November.

[CIK62]

Remainder of Nov. averaging 42degs., or 1deg. BN.   All 8 days as also averaging 42degs.

Month to date is  -4.1[44.8].     Should end month at -3.6[44.2].

34.8 here at 5am.

EURO says NoSnow for next 10 days, and GFS has just 1" over the next 15 days.   The CFS takes yet another week, before indicating any snow here, keeping it to the north of us prior to that.

[doncat]

25° here currently...will rise above freezing in a few hours, but have been below freezing now since 10 pm Wed, so 54 hrs and counting...pretty impressive for so early.

[Brasiluvsnow]

Can this upcoming Tuesday / Wednesday be anything frozen, especially on the back end ?

[MJO812]

I think we have to wait until mid to late December for more snow in the east especially near the coast.

Many people were calling for a good pattern to start December but it looks like that will not happen.

[495weatherguy]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I think we have to wait until mid to late December for more snow in the east especially near the coast.

Many people were calling for a good pattern to start December but it looks like that will not happen.

What has changed to alter the predictions?  A few days ago December was supposed to be cold and stormy?

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Long live Jan 1985!  I remember that well, my windows were iced over lol.  The coldest day in this area since Jan 1977.  The high stayed in the single digits too!

 

That was also the Reagan inaugural and I remember it looked like Antarctica down there lol.

 

Don, Chris, etc., do you think we have a higher than normal probability of getting something like that again this winter?

 

Just look back on the newer 2010's climatology for JFK. There were record daily lows at JFK in November 2013, 2014, and 2017. Each of the following winter periods featured additional daily record low temperatures.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I think we have to wait until mid to late December for more snow in the east especially near the coast.

Many people were calling for a good pattern to start December but it looks like that will not happen.

Good discussion by Isotherm on the pattern for December. 

This tug & forth between the Nina/Nino state is still wrecking havoc on the models and pattern. 

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, doncat said:

59.50" here.

You should surpass 60" tonight.

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Syracuse and Binghamton both had their earliest 0 or below temps on record and first time ever in November!  Don do you think we have a good chance to go below zero areawide this winter at least once?

 

Central Park, as always, will be tough. I could see it outside the City. Canada's vast snowcover may allow for less modification of Arctic air masses than typically occurs.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

What has changed to alter the predictions?  A few days ago December was supposed to be cold and stormy?

December still might be stormy and cold but not the first week.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

December still might be stormy and cold but not the first week.

Overall, I continue to think December will be somewhat colder than normal and snowier than normal. There will be some milder weather, too. My assessment is based on the month as a whole.

[Stormman96]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

December still might be stormy and cold but not the first week.

Starting to get that worry feeing.  Last week I kept thinking this is a bad sign for winter lovers that we are getting an early season snowstorm. Usually in past more often then not leads to snowless winters. Even while at sametime everyone was saying how good pattern was looking to end November and start December. Kept hearing from multiple sources that we would have a high chance of 2 or more winter storm threats in first week of December.   Now things are already changing and not looking so promising early December. Now im hearing perhaps mid to late December this reminds me of a winter in the past not sure what year. But kept hearing  cold an snow was coming. It was always 2 more weeks.  Next think I knew it was april.  Just venting. But hopefully thats not the case this year

[Isotherm]

6 hours ago, doncat said:

25° here currently...will rise above freezing in a few hours, but have been below freezing now since 10 pm Wed, so 54 hrs and counting...pretty impressive for so early.

 

Was just noting my station history and I've recorded 17 nights sub-freezing this cold season already (Oct/Nov). I honestly can't recall that happening, before December even begins.

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

December still might be stormy and cold but not the first week.

 

[Rjay]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Overall, I continue to think December will be somewhat colder than normal and snowier than normal. There will be some milder weather, too. My assessment is based on the month as a whole.

Yea.  The second half of the December looks cold but it's become hard to trust any of the models in the long range.   That's why we count on you folks to show us the light. 

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

Starting to get that worry feeing.  Last week I kept thinking this is a bad sign for winter lovers that we are getting an early season snowstorm. Usually in past more often then not leads to snowless winters. Even while at sametime everyone was saying how good pattern was looking to end November and start December. Kept hearing from multiple sources that we would have a high chance of 2 or more winter storm threats in first week of December.   Now things are already changing and not looking so promising early December. Now im hearing perhaps mid to late December this reminds me of a winter in the past not sure what year. But kept hearing  cold an snow was coming. It was always 2 more weeks.  Next think I knew it was april.  Just venting. But hopefully thats not the case this year

I trust our long range guys.   If they say it's coming it probably is at some point. 

[Stormlover74]

36 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

Starting to get that worry feeing.  Last week I kept thinking this is a bad sign for winter lovers that we are getting an early season snowstorm. Usually in past more often then not leads to snowless winters. Even while at sametime everyone was saying how good pattern was looking to end November and start December. Kept hearing from multiple sources that we would have a high chance of 2 or more winter storm threats in first week of December.   Now things are already changing and not looking so promising early December. Now im hearing perhaps mid to late December this reminds me of a winter in the past not sure what year. But kept hearing  cold an snow was coming. It was always 2 more weeks.  Next think I knew it was april.  Just venting. But hopefully thats not the case this year

That was 2011-12. There's never any guarantee of cold and snow so just be patient and whatever happens happens

[SnowGoose69]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Path and timing of arctic high was perfect for both CAA and radiational cooling.  Got down to 13 here in southwest Nassau and FOK got down to 6.  JFK 15 smashed previous monthly record.  Looks like Binghampton and Syracuse both had their earliest below zero reading ever and first time ever in the month of November!  My barometer peaked at 30.63 at around 8 this morning too.  Perfect timing!

This would have been several degrees below zero if it happened in January wouldn't it?  Do you think we have an enhanced chance of that happening this winter?

 

 

The ridge axis was slightly too far south for ideal cold air draining which is probably which it wasn’t 3-5 degrees colder at most places.  The high center was over or just north of the area.  The best situation is usually for the high center to be across NE NY, VT or WRN MA with an extending axis to the SSW.  That way you get NNE or NE flow all night.  When the ridge is more south you’ll usually see NW flow or NNW before it comes overhead which causes slight downsloping most areas.  I should also add a high in this position also is more likely to not have crossed the Great Lakes and seen an air mass be modified while a high crossing overhead which tracked across PA likely did cross the lakes 

[uncle W]

the first week of some great cold and snowy Decembers were mild...some years the first two weeks...1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1966 had a mild period in the first part of December but they all had snow on the ground Christmas morning from storms between the 11th-24th... after one of the coldest few days in November in a long time and a snowstorm 4-6", what is there to complain about....I'd rather see a nothing first half of December and a good second half...

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

the first week of some great cold and snowy Decembers were mild...some years the first two weeks...1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1966 had a mild period in the first part of December but they all had snow on the ground Christmas morning from storms between the 11th-24th... after one of the coldest few days in November in a long time and a snowstorm 4-6", what is there to complain about....I'd rather see a nothing first half of December and a good second half...

People forget that average highs on Dec 1st are around 47F in Central Park. Climatology favors the second half of the month for significant snowfall. 

In 2010 we had a very cold December but waited until 12/26 for our first significant storm when Central Park got 20" on Boxing Day.

First week of Dec looks Niña-like in the means with a prevailing -PNA and western trough...may be due to AAM loss. Then we wait..

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

December still might be stormy and cold but not the first week.

GFS still has the early part of the first week of December warm, and then brings in the cold on the 5th. It still might get cold during the 1st week of December, but not until later in the week.

[MJO812]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

GFS still has the early part of the first week of December warm, and then brings in the cold on the 5th. It still might get cold during the 1st week of December, but not until later in the week.

Gfs is much better than 6z

The blocking is doing the work on this run. The op runs will change alot.

The interior should watch tuesday. The models are starting to pop the coastal low earlier.

[Brasiluvsnow]

16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs is much better than 6z

The blocking is doing the work on this run. The op runs will change alot.

The interior should watch tuesday. The models are starting to pop the coastal low earlier.

88 ,,,,THIS is what I was thinking with my earlier post about Tuesday and the back end...

[SnoSki14]

GEFS doesn't look too bad, it keeps heights mostly BN through the majority of its run. 

[Eduardo]

53 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

GFS still has the early part of the first week of December warm, and then brings in the cold on the 5th. It still might get cold during the 1st week of December, but not until later in the week.

Probably rushing things a bit, although still good to see of course.  At this point I'm about ready to close the shades and punt today-December 10th or so, but I think our chances improve mid-month on.

 

Patience!  It's only November 24th!  :-)

[EastonSN+]

3 hours ago, Stormman96 said:

Starting to get that worry feeing.  Last week I kept thinking this is a bad sign for winter lovers that we are getting an early season snowstorm. Usually in past more often then not leads to snowless winters. Even while at sametime everyone was saying how good pattern was looking to end November and start December. Kept hearing from multiple sources that we would have a high chance of 2 or more winter storm threats in first week of December.   Now things are already changing and not looking so promising early December. Now im hearing perhaps mid to late December this reminds me of a winter in the past not sure what year. But kept hearing  cold an snow was coming. It was always 2 more weeks.  Next think I knew it was april.  Just venting. But hopefully thats not the case this year

I used to think this due to 1989 and 2011. However 2002, 1995 and 2012 had November snows and they were good to great winters. I think its random luck and the following winter determined by the background state.

[bluewave]

I started a new 2010's snowfall climatology thread for anyone who wants to guess the date of our next 12"+ snowstorm. I included the dates and amounts of all the storms.