November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[tim]

On 11/21/2018 at 6:27 AM, tim said:

...ideal radiational cooling conditions for thurs. nite/friday morning..according to NWS

latest forecast discussion..they have a low of 5* for KFOK friday morning..i'm thinking i should achieve

a single digit low also..

...well looks like we didn't make it.

KFOK @ 12*

eastport 13.9*

wind seems calm now but gabreski reported NW wind all nite.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Current temp is down to 14 here. Impressive cold for November.

This would easily be below zero in January. Especially with any snow cover. I thought winds would go calm so the city wouldn’t have dropped as much but the places like KFOK would have dropped more. The CAA continues with the north wind. Getting that Hudson River cold drain, ideal setup for the park.

[bluewave]

New coldest November minimum temperature on record for JFK. Low of 15 degrees with the previous coldest of 19 in 1987. LGA tied its coldest record at 17 degrees with 1955. The current low of 15 in NYC is the 5th coldest on record and coldest November temperature since 1930. HPN also set a new record coldest at 11 beating the previous record of 15 in 1976.

[dmillz25]

Down to 12 here

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, tim said:

...well looks like we didn't make it.

KFOK @ 12*

eastport 13.9*

wind seems calm now but gabreski reported NW wind all nite.

FOX down to 6

[SnoSki14]

11F this morning, that's just impressive no matter what month it is. It hit single digits not too far way. 

[Cfa]

15°F this morning, which is colder than my lowest recorded temperature for Winter 2017 on the south shore, which was 16°F.

I sure hope this is the strongest cold snap of the cool season.

[Zelocita Weather]

11.5F low for the morning...

[dWave]

low 16 here.

[EastonSN+]

5 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

DT (WxRisk)

https://youtu.be/gK1PEY1F1rQ

Amazed that the EURO weeklies went that warm for mid December. I wonder if that is temporary

[donsutherland1]

Central Park's 15° temperature was New York City's lowest November temperature since the mercury fell to 12° on November 27, 1932.

Record-breaking and record-tying low temperatures for November 22:

Albany: 8° (old record: 9°, 1969)
Allentown: 14° (old record: 15°, 2014)
Bangor: 5° (old record: 11°, 1978)
Binghamton: 3° (old record: 10°, 1989) ***Tied November Record set on 11/30/1976***
Bridgeport: 16° (old record: 18°, 1987) ***Tied November Record set on 11/28/1951 and tied on 11/23/1972***
Danbury: 14° (old record: 16°, 1969)
Hartford: 9° (old record: 14°, 1969)
Islip: 18° (old record: 20°, 1987)
Manchester: 9° (old record: 12°, 1969)
Mount Washington: -26° (old record: -11° set in 1969 and tied in 1987) ***Broke November Record (old monthly record: -20°, 11/30/1958)***
New Haven: 18° (old record: 20°, 1969)
New York City-JFK: 18° (old record: 20°, 1987) ***Broke November Record (old monthly record: 19°, set on 11/30/1976 and tied on 11/21/1987)***
New York City-LGA: 19° (old record: 21°, 1987)
Newark: 17° (old record: 19°, 1987)
Portland: 6° (old record: 11°, 1888)
Poughkeepsie: 10° (old record: 14° set in 1972 and tied in 1984)
Providence: 15° (old record: 16° set in 1969 and tied in 1987)
Saranac Lake: -19° (old record: -2° set in 1972 and tied in 1987) ***Broke November Record (Old monthly record: -14°, set 11/26/1938 and tied on 11/28/1951)***
Scranton: 9° (old record: 15° set in 1969 and tied in 1987 and 2014)
White Plains: 14° (old record: 18° set in 1972 and tied in 1987) ***Broke November Record (old monthly record: 15° set on 11/27/1949 and tied on 11/29/1955 and 11/30/1976)***
Worcester: 7° (old record: 11°, 1987)

Record Low Maximum Temperatures for November 22:

Albany: 19° (old record: 25°, 1880)
Allentown: 29° (old record: 31°, 1964)
Bangor: 14° (old record: 24°, 2008) ***Tied November Record set on 11/27/1978***
Binghamton: 15° (old record: 22°, 1959 and 2008) ***Tied November Record set on 11/30/1976***
Boston: 24° (tied record set in 1880)
Bridgeport: 29° (old record: 30°, 1972)
Caribou: 13° (old record: 18°, 1972)
Danbury: 25° (old record: 28°, 1972) ***Tied November Record set on 11/29/1949 and 11/28/1996***
Hartford: 21° (old record: 27°, 1978)
Islip: 29° (old record: 31°, 2008)
Manchester: 19° (old record: 25°, 2008) ***Broke November Record (old monthly record: 21°, 11/29/1929)***
Mount Washington: -13° (old record: -5°, 2008) ***Broke November Record (old monthly record: -7°, 11/30/1958)***
New Haven: 28° (old record: 32°, 1972 and 2008)
New York City-JFK: 29° (old record: 34°, 1949 and 2008)
New York City-LGA: 29° (old record: 31°, 1972)
Newark: 29° (old record: 33°, 1949)
Portland: 17° (old record: 25°, 1880)
Poughkeepsie: 27° (old record: 30°, 1972 and 1978)
Providence: 24° (old record: 30°, 2008)
Saranac Lake: 8° (old record: 10°, 1987) ***Broke November Record (old monthly record: 10°, 11/30/1936 and 11/22/1987)***
Scranton: 23° (old record: 28°, 1949, 1972, 1989, 2000, and 2008)
Trenton: 30° (tied record set in 1880)
Westhamton: 28° (old record: 32°, 2008) ***Broke November Record (old record: 30°, 11/29/1955)***
White Plains: 26° (old record: 30°, 2008) ***Tied November Record set on 11/30/1976***
Worcester: 16° (old record: 24°, 2008) ***Broke November Record (old monthly record: 20°, 11/30/1958)***

Preliminary Record-breaking and record-tying low temperatures for November 23:

Albany: 5° (tied record set in 1972)
Allentown: 11° (old record: 16°, 1964 and 2000)
Binghamton: 0° (old record: 12°, 1989 and 2008) ***Broke November Record (old record: 3°, set on 11/30/1976 and tied on 11/22/2018)***
Bridgeport: 13° (old record: 16°, 1972) ***Broke November Record (old record: 16°, set on 11/28/1951 and tied on 11/23/1972 and 11/22/2018)***
Burlington: -1° (old record: 2°, 1888 and 1972)
Danbury: 6° (old record: 12°, 1942)
Hartford: 5° (old record: 12°, 1972)
Mount Washington: -13° (tied record set in 1994)
New Haven: 13° (old record: 18°, 1964) ***Broke November Record (old record: 14°, 11/28/1951)
New York City-JFK: 15° (old record: 25°, set in 1949 and tied in 1964, 1972, 2000, and 2008) ***Broke November Record (old record: 18°, 11/22/2018)***
New York City-LGA: 17° (old record: 23°, 1972) ***Tied November Record set on 11/29/1955***
Newark: 13° (old record: 21°, 1932)
Portland: 4° (old record: 7°, 1888 and 1978)
Poughkeepsie: 6° (old record: 9°, 1989)
Providence: 13° (old record: 14°, 1972)
Saranac Lake: -17° (old record: -11°, 1932)
Scranton: 5° (old record: 13°, 1972) ***Broke November Record (old record: 6°, set 11/29/1929 and tied on 11/26/1938)
Trenton: 13° (old record: 16°, 1880)
Westhampton: 6° (old record: 14°, 1964 and 2000) ***Broke November Record (old record: 9°, 11/24/2000)***
White Plains: 11° (old record: 17°, 1972) ***Broke November Record (old record: 14°, 11/22/2018)***
Worcester: 7° (old record: 9°, 1929, 1972, and 1989)

[EastonSN+]

Just now, bluewave said:

The weeklies haven't been that great past 10 days recently. That being said, the MJO will play a role in what happens down the road. We are currently in a colder phase for this time of year. If the MJO can progress into 3-5, then that could represent a moderation from what we have been experiencing. But I wouldn't get too attached to forecasts past 10 days which seem to changing on every new run.

Thanks. 2001 2002 stings in my memory of a predicted great winter that fell through. However, I am conscious that knowledgeable members on this board stated that the background state of this winter is completely different that the aforementioned year. If we do go through phases 3 through 5 hopefully its temporary.

[Rjay]

14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The -26° reading there this morning smashed the November record low of -20°, which was set on November 30, 1958.

Don, when they hit -26, winds were NW at 84mph gusting to 94mph. 

[JerseyWx]

9° here this am.  Brutally cold for this time of year.

[North and West]

Also remember the current late November NAO drop below -1 has been associated with colder and snowier potential in December since 1995. 

  http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii

 

2017 11 20 -1.293.....Mar...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Mar...-AO

 

2010 11 26 -2.632.....Dec/Jan...-NAO..Dec/Jan....-AO

 

2008 11 30 -1.823.....Dec/Jan...-NAO..Feb..-AO

 

2005 11 25 -2.181.....Dec/Feb/Mar...-NAO..Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar....-AO

 

2002 11 23 -1.025.....Dec...-NAO...Dec/Jan...-AO

 

2000 11 27 -1.216.....Dec/Mar...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar...-AO

 

1997 11 30 -1.932.....Dec/Feb...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Mar...-AO

 

1996 11 19 -1.851.....Dec/Jan...-NAO...Dec/Jan...-AO

 

1995 11 16 -1.751.....Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Mar...-AO

 

 

Interesting to see. I don’t know nearly enough about the physics behind it, but it blows my mind how much these 10-15 day forecasts can change radically. I was all amped up for cold, and now it may not be that at all.

 

It *does* make me think twice about how much people put faith into knowing exactly what the trends/picture will be in 25/50/100 years from now.

 

I’m not discounting or questioning AGW or anything of the sort; more so the absolutism Of knowing exactly what will occur, whether it’s in two weeks or centuries.

 

.

 

[psv88]

13.8

[JustinRP37]

19 minutes ago, North and West said:

 

Interesting to see. I don’t know nearly enough about the physics behind it, but it blows my mind how much these 10-15 day forecasts can change radically. I was all amped up for cold, and now it may not be that at all.

 

It *does* make me think twice about how much people put faith into knowing exactly what the trends/picture will be in 25/50/100 years from now.

 

I’m not discounting or questioning AGW or anything of the sort; more so the absolutism Of knowing exactly what will occur, whether it’s in two weeks or centuries.

 

.

 

The big difference is scientists aren’t forecasting a 100-200 square mile area when they are forecasting the temperature rise. It is very hard to pinpoint weather conditions, but easier to forecast global temperatures. Even though we are cold, much of the globe is still above normal, and that above normal blob is larger than the cold blob. Basically it is easy to say that it will snow somewhere in December than it is to say Central Park will receive 3-6 inches in December 16th, 2018. Scientists can look at species movements and see how the rise in greenhouse gases will change the weather in the future in the general sense. 

[North and West]

The big difference is scientists aren’t forecasting a 100-200 square mile area when they are forecasting the temperature rise. It is very hard to pinpoint weather conditions, but easier to forecast global temperatures. Even though we are cold, much of the globe is still above normal, and that above normal blob is larger than the cold blob. Basically it is easy to say that it will snow somewhere in December than it is to say Central Park will receive 3-6 inches in December 16th, 2018. Scientists can look at species movements and see how the rise in greenhouse gases will change the weather in the future in the general sense. 

Thanks. Good point.


.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Don, when they hit -26, winds were NW at 84mph gusting to 94mph. 

They were. The wind chill was extreme.

[bluewave]

First monthly low temperature record at JFK since January 1985.

RECORD EVENT REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 
1026 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2018

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER SET AT 
KENNEDY NY...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES WAS SET FOR THE MONTH OF 
NOVEMBER AT KENNEDY NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 18 SET 
ON NOVEMBER 22, 2018. THE PREVIOUS RECORD COLDEST TEMPERATURE FOR 
NOVEMBER WAS 19 SET IN 1987 ON THE 21ST. 

Jan...-2....1985

Feb....-2...1963

Mar.....7...1976

Apr....20..1982

May...34..1966

Jun...45...1967

Jul...55....1979

Aug..46...1965

Sep...40...1963

Oct...30...1976

Nov...15...2018

Dec...2.....1983

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, North and West said:

 

Interesting to see. I don’t know nearly enough about the physics behind it, but it blows my mind how much these 10-15 day forecasts can change radically. I was all amped up for cold, and now it may not be that at all.

 

It *does* make me think twice about how much people put faith into knowing exactly what the trends/picture will be in 25/50/100 years from now.

 

I’m not discounting or questioning AGW or anything of the sort; more so the absolutism Of knowing exactly what will occur, whether it’s in two weeks or centuries.

 

.

 

Forecasts aside, the scope of below normal continuing would be unusual for the 2010s, and unusual for a sorta el nino year in December.

 

Also, historically speaking, a 6 inch snowstorm that early in November usually messes up snow chances for the rest of the season. Even if years ended up above normal in that scenario, it is usually associated with one big storm for the bulk of it.

 

Not saying that that can’t happen, but we would be buccing historical trends.

In other words, Buckle Up

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Amazed that the EURO weeklies went that warm for mid December. I wonder if that is temporary

I’ve seen many cases over the years when we are in high end weak to moderate La Niña or El Niño events and long range guidance headed into December shows a pattern that strongly goes against the tendencies for that ENSO setup.   In the end you verify closer more often than not to what that ENSO pattern tendency is.  In this case it’s mild or near normal in December.  I find that in December strong or very weak ENSOs are unpredictable but often times higher end weak to moderate are cut and dried cold La Niña milder El Niño.  2002, 2005, and 2009 all looked at this range that they’d be very cold, mild, very cold respectively.  In the end all those Decembers verified closer to what you’d expect temperature wise for the ENSO state they were in 

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’ve seen many cases over the years when we are in high end weak to moderate La Niña or El Niño events and long range guidance headed into December shows a pattern that strongly goes against the tendencies for that ENSO setup.   In the end you verify closer more often than not to what that ENSO pattern tendency is.  In this case it’s mild or near normal in December.  I find that in December strong or very weak ENSOs are unpredictable but often times higher end weak to moderate are cut and dried cold La Niña milder El Niño.  2002, 2005, and 2009 all looked at this range that they’d be very cold, mild, very cold respectively.  In the end all those Decembers verified closer to what you’d expect temperature wise for the ENSO state they were in 

Thanks

[qg_omega]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

New coldest November minimum temperature on record for JFK. Low of 15 degrees with the previous coldest of 19 in 1987. LGA tied its coldest record at 17 degrees with 1955. The current low of 15 in NYC is the 5th coldest on record and coldest November temperature since 1930. HPN also set a new record coldest at 11 beating the previous record of 15 in 1976.

This cold snap looks like coldest of winter relative to average

[weathermedic]

The entire lake at Flushing Meadows Park in Queens had ice on the surface this morning. This is the earliest I've ever seen the entire lake frozen like that. I know it's just a very thin layer on the surface that will melt relatively quickly, but still interesting to see.

[495weatherguy]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

This cold snap looks like coldest of winter relative to average

I hope so

 

[Stormlover74]

Nam is 2-3" of rain for most tomorrow night

[tim]

13 hours ago, Rjay said:

FOX down to 6

..my bad..i checked @ 6am..temp dropped 6* in 1 hour..the reading at 7am was 6*

...nice call snow goose who called it a few days ago.

[donsutherland1]

With the severe November cold now having passed, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions are poised to receive yet another significant rainfall. Already, many cities in the region have had among their 10 or 20 wettest years. Such cities as Baltimore and Reading have had their wettest year on record. Others, including Charleston, WV and Washington, DC are steadily moving toward their highest annual precipitation records.

The preponderance of guidance suggests that the region will likely see a 0.50"-1.50" rainfall Saturday (mainly the evening or night) into Sunday. Some areas could have locally higher amounts in the 2.00"-2.50" range.

Below is a summary of where things currently stand for select cities, how their year-to-date precipitation ranks among the wettest years on record, and scenarios for precipitation amoungs ranging from 0.50" to 1.50".

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, tim said:

..my bad..i checked @ 6am..temp dropped 6* in 1 hour..the reading at 7am was 6*

...nice call snow goose who called it a few days ago.

Pretty cool stuff betweem 6 and 8am at FOX.  Not unusual at all for them though.