gravitylover Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 I saw 76 on the dashboard thermo in two spots this afternoon and 75 on a bank thermo. It was warm and muggy but damn it felt good I've been out in the woods a little bit recently and it's really wet. Things are moldy and rotting, trees are falling over all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 This weather sucks it’s novermber dudes. It should be at least decently cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Something new under the sun... The second half of October (October 16-31) saw the temperature average 49.6° in Central Park. 2018 became only the 15th year on record during which the second half of October had a mean temperature below 50°. If the guidance is reasonably accurate, New York City will see the temperature average near 57.5° during the first week in November. None of the October cases saw such warmth during the first week in November. The closest such prior year was 1888 when the November 1-7 mean temperature was 56.5°. Such early November warmth does not necessarily suggest that the upcoming winter won't be snowy. Of the 14 prior October 16-31 cases, 50% had a mean temperature of 50° or above during the first week of November. Mean and median winter snowfall for those cases were 36.9" and 35.5" respectively in NYC. Mean and median winter snowfall for the other half of those cases were 35.0" and 32.4" respectively. Finally, half of those 14 October cases went on to have November with a mean temperature of 45° or above. Taking into consideration the long-range guidance, November 2018 will very likely have a mean temperature above that level. Mean and median snowfall amounts for such cases were 38.9" and 39.0" respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 2, 2018 Author Share Posted November 2, 2018 Current temp is a balmy 69 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 2, 2018 Author Share Posted November 2, 2018 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 56degs., or 6/7degs. AN. 66 here at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 3 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Current temp is a balmy 69 here. Took the AC out too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 High wind watch for tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 So far it looks like the low in NYC for today was 65 degrees. If this can hold through midnight, then it will be the 3rd warmest low temperature on record for November. In any event, NYC is on track for only the 2nd 60+ November minimum of the 2010's. Highest November minimum temperatures on record for NYC: #1.....67.....1971 #2....66......2015 #3....65......1956 #4....64......1938...1936...1929....1895 #5....63......1975 #6....62.......numerous years #7....61.......numerous years #8...60........numerous years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Potential for 2-3" of rain tonight and severe thunderstorms. High wind watch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 11 hours ago, MeteorologicalFan said: This weather sucks it’s novermber dudes. It should be at least decently cold It’s been freezing for 3 weeks. Enjoy the 48hour break! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 11 hours ago, MeteorologicalFan said: This weather sucks it’s novermber dudes. It should be at least decently cold It was below normal for almost the entire second half of October. A few days near 70 is more than welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It was below normal for almost the entire second half of October. A few days near 70 is more than welcomed. Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 odd high wind watch tomorrow, not seeing it and Upton seems to discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: odd high wind watch tomorrow, not seeing it and Upton seems to discount it. Gusts to 60 possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: High wind watch for tomorrow afternoon I was surprised to see that this morning. Maybe some sort of sting jet with the frontal passage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 26 minutes ago, qg_omega said: odd high wind watch tomorrow, not seeing it and Upton seems to discount it. probably will be downgraded to advisory-most modeling showing the best winds well north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: probably will be downgraded to advisory-most modeling showing the best winds well north. agreed, doubt many areas see winds to 50 let alone 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: agreed, doubt many areas see winds to 50 let alone 60 You mean how no one would see 50+ with the last storm (coast saw 60-65+). Granted this is a much different setup but those forecast offices know better than most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: You mean how no one would see 50+ with the last storm (coast saw 60-65+). Granted this is a much different setup but those forecast offices know better than most. sometimes though models overdue the winds-how many times have we seen a warning or advisory and criteria is not met... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: sometimes though models overdue the winds-how many times have we seen a warning or advisory and criteria is not met... yeah, Tip said the same thing in the NE thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Picked up 0.60" overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: You mean how no one would see 50+ with the last storm (coast saw 60-65+). Granted this is a much different setup but those forecast offices know better than most. isolated to the immediate NJ shore, even JFK only gusted in the low 40s. There were some areas that were able to mix out and got some strong winds but overall it was in the 40s: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=21&glossary=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 The mid month timeframe should be watched for a storm near the coast. Tellies look good but of course it will all depend on timing and cold air. Interior areas would be favored at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 this event went from 36 hrs of rain to a couple hour with a line of showers overnight (albeit it heavy especially N and W) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 It's unbelievable mild considering the completely overcast skies. I've never seen that before. Usually it wouldn't get higher than the upper 60s, it's 72F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Another unusual combination of shear, steep midlevel lapse rates, and elevated cape on the forecast soundings tonight. This is part of the pattern that has produced the recent late season severe storms and tornadoes around the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 2, 2018 Author Share Posted November 2, 2018 Current temp is 72 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Another unusual combination of shear, steep midlevel lapse rates, and elevated cape on the forecast soundings tonight. This is part of the pattern that has produced the recent late season tornadoes around the region. Yeah, SIGTOR has been increasing a bit on the last few HRRR runs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 yawn, line of heavy showers, which doesnt look impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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