November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[uncle W]

the last time NYC got measurable snow in November and a cold wave with temps in the teens was in 1987...before that was in 1955...1967 came close...

[bluewave]

Local records for the coming Arctic outbreak.

Record low temperatures for Thu Nov 22:

Central Park.....13 (1880)
LaGuardia........21 (1987)
Kennedy..........20 (1987)
Newark...........19 (1987)
Bridgeport.......18 (1987)
Islip............20 (1987)

Record low maximum temperatures for Thu Nov 22:

Central Park.....23 (1880)
LaGuardia........31 (1972)
Kennedy..........34 (2008)*
Newark...........33 (1949)
Bridgeport.......30 (1972)
Islip............31 (2008)

Record low temperatures for Fri Nov 23:

Central Park.....14 (1880)
LaGuardia........23 (1972)
Kennedy..........25 (2008)*
Newark...........21 (1932)
Bridgeport.......16 (1972)
Islip............13 (1989)

*also occurred in previous years

[frd]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Record cold during November at any of our major climate stations is sometimes an indicator of further near to record cold at some point DJFM.

Mentioned this over at the MidAtlantic forum.

This upcoming cold blast is the second one to occur in our areas in the past 5 weeks where some of the coldest air on the globe, negative anomaly-wise,  was centered in the NE part of the country.

I really feel snow cover has a lot to do with this so far. And, more snow cover is forecasted going forward. Bundle up !    

 

[gravitylover]

11 hours ago, Hailstorm said:

If the Pacific and Atlantic blocking decide to take a break, I hope it occurs between 12/10-12/22. I do not want another Grinch storm / blowtorch for Christmas like it has been for 3 of the last 5 winters.

I don't know about that, there's something to be said for mt biking in shorts and short sleeves when it's 60* on Christmas. That something is good, trust me  

[donsutherland1]

November's warm start is now a fading memory. A sustained period of much below normal readings has already led to a negative month-to-date anomaly. A storm also brought significant early-season snow to much of the region. Already, amounts in many parts of the Middle Atlantic and New England areas are running well above normal.

Select seasonal snowfall amounts through November 19:

Albany: 7.3” (5.9” above normal)
Allentown: 8.1” (7.9” above normal)
Baltimore: 1.7” (1.6” above normal)
Binghamton: 18.3” (14.7” above normal)
Boston: 0.1” (0.3” below normal)
Detroit: 5.0” (4.4” above normal)
Harrisburg: 8.8” (8.7” above normal)
Hartford: 7.9” (7.0” above normal)
Islip: 4.3” (4.2” above normal)
New York City: 6.4” (6.3” above normal)
Newark: 6.4” (6.3” above normal)
Philadelphia: 3.6” (3.5” above normal)
Portland: 7.3” (6.6” above normal)
Providence: 6.0” (5.5” above normal)
Scranton: 11.0” (9.3” above normal)
Washington, DC: 1.4” (1.2” above normal)

Courtesy of unseasonably expansive snowcover in Canada, an Arctic shot could bring some of the coldest November readings in perhaps three decades to parts of the region Thursday and Friday. The MOS currently forecasts cities such as Islip, New York, and Newark to have a minimum temperature below 20° during the upcoming cold shot.

Select MOS Forecasts:

Albany: 1° (last November occurrence: November 26, 1938: -11°) – only 5 dates with lows of 5° or below on record (records go back to 1874)
Bridgeport: 14° (would set a new monthly record)
Islip: 13° (last November occurrence: November 24, 1989: 11°)
New York City: 16° (last November occurrence: November 29, 1955: 16°)
Newark: 15° (last November occurrence: November 29, 1955: 15°)
Poughkeepsie: 6° (last November occurrence: November 24, 1989: 3°)
White Plains: 12° (would set a new monthly record)

Even if the MOS is too cold by several degrees, the upcoming Arctic blast will be among the more impressive November cold shots since 2000.

Overall, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied probability of 89% that New York City will have a colder than normal November. Some implied probabilities for select monthly mean temperatures for November are as follows:

Below 46°: 71% (last occurrence: 2014 45.3°)
Below 45°: 56% (last occurrence: 2012: 43.9°)
Below 44°: 40% (last occurrence: 2012: 43.9°)

Most likely range: 43.8° - 45.4°

Finally, the forecast strong Atlantic blocking is now evolving. The preliminary daily values for the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are -1.303 and -0.697.  The ensembles continue to suggest that the AO will likely fall to -4.500 to -3.500 and the NAO will likely fall to -1.500 to -1.000 in coming days. Such severe blocking at this time of year has often been a precursor to a blocky winter. All said, things remain on course for a potentially cold and very snowy winter in the region.

 

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, frd said:

Mentioned this over at the MidAtlantic forum.

This upcoming cold blast is the second one to occur in our areas in the past 5 weeks where some of the coldest air on the globe, negative anomaly-wise,  was centered in the NE part of the country.

I really feel snow cover has a lot to do with this so far. And, more snow cover is forecasted going forward. Bundle up !    

 

I believe it's a function of the Warm Arctic, Cold Continents pattern. Lingering summer warmth this decade into September and October. Followed by a flip to cold in November. The only fall colder than normal months during the 2010's around NYC are in November.

[SnowGoose69]

Friday morning will probably severely bust MOS low temps.  It’s nearly the same setup as Tuesday morning last week when the ridge axis came overhead and JFK dropped to 31 with a MOS forecast lows of 39 and 40.  I wouldn’t be surprised if some parts of LI got close to 5.  

[dmillz25]

46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

November's warm start is now a fading memory. A sustained period of much below normal readings has already led to a negative month-to-date anomaly. A storm also brought significant early-season snow to much of the region. Already, amounts in many parts of the Middle Atlantic and New England areas are running well above normal.

Select seasonal snowfall amounts through November 19:

Albany: 7.3” (5.9” above normal)
Allentown: 8.1” (7.9” above normal)
Baltimore: 1.7” (1.6” above normal)
Binghamton: 18.3” (14.7” above normal)
Boston: 0.1” (0.3” below normal)
Detroit: 5.0” (4.4” above normal)
Harrisburg: 8.8” (8.7” above normal)
Hartford: 7.9” (7.0” above normal)
Islip: 4.3” (4.2” above normal)
New York City: 6.4” (6.3” above normal)
Newark: 6.4” (6.3” above normal)
Philadelphia: 3.6” (3.5” above normal)
Portland: 7.3” (6.6” above normal)
Providence: 6.0” (5.5” above normal)
Scranton: 11.0” (9.3” above normal)
Washington, DC: 1.4” (1.2” above normal)

Courtesy of unseasonably expansive snowcover in Canada, an Arctic shot could bring some of the coldest November readings in perhaps three decades to parts of the region Thursday and Friday. The MOS currently forecasts cities such as Islip, New York, and Newark to have a minimum temperature below 20° during the upcoming cold shot.

Select MOS Forecasts:

Albany: 1° (last November occurrence: November 26, 1938: -11°) – only 5 dates with lows of 5° or below on record (records go back to 1874)
Bridgeport: 14° (would set a new monthly record)
Islip: 13° (last November occurrence: November 24, 1989: 11°)
New York City: 16° (last November occurrence: November 29, 1955: 16°)
Newark: 15° (last November occurrence: November 29, 1955: 15°)
Poughkeepsie: 6° (last November occurrence: November 24, 1989: 3°)
White Plains: 12° (would set a new monthly record)

Even if the MOS is too cold by several degrees, the upcoming Arctic blast will be among the more impressive November cold shots since 2000.

Overall, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied probability of 89% that New York City will have a colder than normal November. Some implied probabilities for select monthly mean temperatures for November are as follows:

Below 46°: 71% (last occurrence: 2014 45.3°)
Below 45°: 56% (last occurrence: 2012: 43.9°)
Below 44°: 40% (last occurrence: 2012: 43.9°)

Most likely range: 43.8° - 45.4°

Finally, the forecast strong Atlantic blocking is now evolving. The preliminary daily values for the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are -1.303 and -0.697.  The ensembles continue to suggest that the AO will likely fall to -4.500 to -3.500 and the NAO will likely fall to -1.500 to -1.000 in coming days. Such severe blocking at this time of year has often been a precursor to a blocky winter. All said, things remain on course for a potentially cold and very snowy winter in the region.

 

That Boston measurement is a load of crap ( sorry no better way to put it). My friend who lives in Charlestown got 2” and just west of the city saw 6”

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Friday morning will probably severely bust MOS low temps.  It’s nearly the same setup as Tuesday morning last week when the ridge axis came overhead and JFK dropped to 31 with a MOS forecast lows of 39 and 40.  I wouldn’t be surprised if some parts of LI got close to 5.  

The NAM MOS is already down to 6 degrees out at FOK on Friday morning.

WESTHAMPTON BEACH   
 KFOK   NAM MOS GUIDANCE   11/20/2018  1200 UTC                      
 DT /NOV  20/NOV  21                /NOV  22                /NOV  23 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 N/X                    30          46          18          30     6 
 TMP  42 42 37 38 36 34 33 40 43 42 34 31 27 23 19 25 28 28 19 15 11 
 DPT  37 35 31 28 26 25 24 28 25 20 15 13  8  6  2  2  0 -1 -1 -2 -3 

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Local records for the coming Arctic outbreak.

Record low temperatures for Thu Nov 22:

Central Park.....13 (1880)
LaGuardia........21 (1987)
Kennedy..........20 (1987)
Newark...........19 (1987)
Bridgeport.......18 (1987)
Islip............20 (1987)

Record low maximum temperatures for Thu Nov 22:

Central Park.....23 (1880)
LaGuardia........31 (1972)
Kennedy..........34 (2008)*
Newark...........33 (1949)
Bridgeport.......30 (1972)
Islip............31 (2008)

Record low temperatures for Fri Nov 23:

Central Park.....14 (1880)
LaGuardia........23 (1972)
Kennedy..........25 (2008)*
Newark...........21 (1932)
Bridgeport.......16 (1972)
Islip............13 (1989)

*also occurred in previous years

Central Park chances for a record low is slim and none...slim left town...old joke but I'm old...I remember 1972   what a depressing winter that was...worst of all time imo...

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

30 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

That Boston measurement is a load of crap ( sorry no better way to put it). My friend who lives in Charlestown got 2” and just west of the city saw 6”

And those of us who have lived through 40+ years of bad measurements, mostly under measurements at Central Park, can certainly relate.

Although Boston measures at Logan so it's very possible a few miles inland made a big difference.

[sferic]

5 minutes ago, uncle W said:

Central Park chances for a record low is slim and none...slim left town...old joke but I'm old...I remember 1972   what a depressing winter that was...worst of all time imo...

Uncle, if I remember correctly for 1972-73 Jacksonville Florida had more snow than NYC

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, sferic said:

Uncle, if I remember correctly for 1972-73 Jacksonville Florida had more snow than NYC

In February of 73 there was a massive snowstorm in AL/GA/SC.  It was so far south I think Birmingham and Atlanta got missed but some places saw 20-30 inches  

[uncle W]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

In February of 73 there was a massive snowstorm in AL/GA/SC.  It was so far south I think Birmingham and Atlanta got missed but some places saw 20-30 inches  

that was hard to take...there were a few southern storms that winter...

[uncle W]

41 minutes ago, sferic said:

Uncle, if I remember correctly for 1972-73 Jacksonville Florida had more snow than NYC

I saw a trace on the local climate data...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=1&state=FL&stationID=13889&_target2=Next+>

[SnowGoose69]

10 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I saw a trace on the local climate data...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=1&state=FL&stationID=13889&_target2=Next+>

As far as I know the only times Jacksonville has snowed in the last 100 years is December 1989 and January 2014 I think and only 89 had measurable snow 

[uncle W]

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

As far as I know the only times Jacksonville has snowed in the last 100 years is December 1989 and January 2014 I think and only 89 had measurable snow 

1958 in January...

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

Central Park chances for a record low is slim and none...slim left town...old joke but I'm old...I remember 1972   what a depressing winter that was...worst of all time imo...

It does look like we have a shot at a top 10 coldest November minimum temperature in NYC. This would be an accomplishment for  the post 1980 era.

Top 10 coldest November minimums  in NYC...most recent years listed for each temperature

#1.....5.....1875

#2....12....1932

#3....13....1880

#4....14....1891

#5....15....1930

#6....16....1955

#7....17....1976

#8....18....1987

#9....19....1924

#10...20...1967

 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

That Boston measurement is a load of crap ( sorry no better way to put it). My friend who lives in Charlestown got 2” and just west of the city saw 6”

Thanks for this information. I did see the PNS and was surprised to see how little snow had been reported at Logan Airport.

[Superstorm]

1958 in January...
 

What’s more impressive is how dry the snow looked in the video. Must have been very cold during the snowfall.


.

[uncle W]

36 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

What’s more impressive is how dry the snow looked in the video. Must have been very cold during the snowfall.


.

Tallahassee got 2.8" and a low of 22 the next day...The average low that month in Tallahassee was 34.5 with a minimum of 19 on the 18th...That storm went up the coast as a blizzard...NYC got 8-10"...

[uncle W]

the earliest date for a max 32 or lower for NYC in November since 1960 is Nov. 22nd...1964, 1972 and 2008 all had 32 degree max's...

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, uncle W said:

the last time NYC got measurable snow in November and a cold wave with temps in the teens was in 1987...before that was in 1955...1967 came close...

this winter better be nothing like 1987-88

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

November's warm start is now a fading memory. A sustained period of much below normal readings has already led to a negative month-to-date anomaly. A storm also brought significant early-season snow to much of the region. Already, amounts in many parts of the Middle Atlantic and New England areas are running well above normal.

Select seasonal snowfall amounts through November 19:

Albany: 7.3” (5.9” above normal)
Allentown: 8.1” (7.9” above normal)
Baltimore: 1.7” (1.6” above normal)
Binghamton: 18.3” (14.7” above normal)
Boston: 0.1” (0.3” below normal)
Detroit: 5.0” (4.4” above normal)
Harrisburg: 8.8” (8.7” above normal)
Hartford: 7.9” (7.0” above normal)
Islip: 4.3” (4.2” above normal)
New York City: 6.4” (6.3” above normal)
Newark: 6.4” (6.3” above normal)
Philadelphia: 3.6” (3.5” above normal)
Portland: 7.3” (6.6” above normal)
Providence: 6.0” (5.5” above normal)
Scranton: 11.0” (9.3” above normal)
Washington, DC: 1.4” (1.2” above normal)

Courtesy of unseasonably expansive snowcover in Canada, an Arctic shot could bring some of the coldest November readings in perhaps three decades to parts of the region Thursday and Friday. The MOS currently forecasts cities such as Islip, New York, and Newark to have a minimum temperature below 20° during the upcoming cold shot.

Select MOS Forecasts:

Albany: 1° (last November occurrence: November 26, 1938: -11°) – only 5 dates with lows of 5° or below on record (records go back to 1874)
Bridgeport: 14° (would set a new monthly record)
Islip: 13° (last November occurrence: November 24, 1989: 11°)
New York City: 16° (last November occurrence: November 29, 1955: 16°)
Newark: 15° (last November occurrence: November 29, 1955: 15°)
Poughkeepsie: 6° (last November occurrence: November 24, 1989: 3°)
White Plains: 12° (would set a new monthly record)

Even if the MOS is too cold by several degrees, the upcoming Arctic blast will be among the more impressive November cold shots since 2000.

Overall, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied probability of 89% that New York City will have a colder than normal November. Some implied probabilities for select monthly mean temperatures for November are as follows:

Below 46°: 71% (last occurrence: 2014 45.3°)
Below 45°: 56% (last occurrence: 2012: 43.9°)
Below 44°: 40% (last occurrence: 2012: 43.9°)

Most likely range: 43.8° - 45.4°

Finally, the forecast strong Atlantic blocking is now evolving. The preliminary daily values for the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are -1.303 and -0.697.  The ensembles continue to suggest that the AO will likely fall to -4.500 to -3.500 and the NAO will likely fall to -1.500 to -1.000 in coming days. Such severe blocking at this time of year has often been a precursor to a blocky winter. All said, things remain on course for a potentially cold and very snowy winter in the region.

 

Thanks Don, 1989 rearing its ugly head again lol

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

Tallahassee got 2.8" and a low of 22 the next day...The average low that month in Tallahassee was 34.5 with a minimum of 19 on the 18th...That storm went up the coast as a blizzard...NYC got 8-10"...

Sounds like the famous Feb 1899 snowstorm, 2" of snow in Tampa and 34" in Cape May

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks for this information. I did see the PNS and was surprised to see how little snow had been reported at Logan Airport.

I thought I saw a report of 2.6" at Logan? The 0.1" must be a typo or error

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, uncle W said:

that was hard to take...there were a few southern storms that winter...

Reminds me of 2001-02 with how the Carolinas got hit with snow and we almost got a 0 that season.

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The NAM MOS is already down to 6 degrees out at FOK on Friday morning.

WESTHAMPTON BEACH   
 KFOK   NAM MOS GUIDANCE   11/20/2018  1200 UTC                      
 DT /NOV  20/NOV  21                /NOV  22                /NOV  23 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 N/X                    30          46          18          30     6 
 TMP  42 42 37 38 36 34 33 40 43 42 34 31 27 23 19 25 28 28 19 15 11 
 DPT  37 35 31 28 26 25 24 28 25 20 15 13  8  6  2  2  0 -1 -1 -2 -3 

I wouldn't be surprised if FOK or HTO or MJX go below zero, would that be the earliest time?

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Record cold during November at any of our major climate stations can be an indicator of further near to record cold at some point from December to March.

I remember Isotherm did some research on this before, but very cold Novembers actually seem to be negatively correlated with snowy winters- I hope that doesn't happen this time.  Considering how November 1987 and 1989 went and the winters that came after that.

 

[North and West]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember Isotherm did some research on this before, but very cold Novembers actually seem to be negatively correlated with snowy winters- I hope that doesn't happen this time.  Considering how November 1987 and 1989 went and the winters that came after that.

 

True, though this reminded of it being brutally cold last November on one Friday and how cold the day prior to Thanksgiving was in 2002. So we have that going for us, which is nice.