MJO812 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Latest tellies this morning look very good PNA is rising NAO is falling AO is tanking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Latest tellies this morning look very good PNA is rising NAO is falling AO is tanking 88 = real question for us uninformed,,,,,,what are Tellies ? Weeklies ? Are they the same thing ? Where can one find them ? thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 MOS numbers hinting at the potential first NYC drop below 20 degrees in November since 1987. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC NAM MOS GUIDANCE 11/19/2018 1200 UTC DT /NOV 19/NOV 20 /NOV 21 /NOV 22 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 40 47 33 38 17 TMP 46 46 45 45 44 43 42 41 45 44 42 39 37 36 35 35 36 34 31 25 19 DPT 40 40 40 39 39 38 37 35 34 31 29 25 24 23 23 21 19 17 14 5 -2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said: 88 = real question for us uninformed,,,,,,what are Tellies ? Weeklies ? Are they the same thing ? Where can one find them ? thanks in advance Let’s just ban that awul word. Hes talking about teleconnections. Tellies sounds like he’s talking about the telletubbies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Let’s just ban that awul word. Hes talking about teleconnections. Tellies sounds like he’s talking about the telletubbies Or slang for hotel lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Pattern looks quite locked and loaded by November 29/30. The only thing working against us is climo (averages are almost 50F). Also I wouldn't be surprised to see the systems next week trend south as the strong -NAO begins to exert its influence. Test Gfs strongly suggests that possibility. However snow would still be unlikely due to a lack of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 after this November the decade average temperature will drop and snowfall will go up...since the 1950's November is averaging 47.8 in NYC...2018 will be well below that...it is possible we could see the coldest Thanksgiving on record...the coldest was 19 in 1876 and another year...the 2010's will be the first decade to average at least an inch of snow since the 1930's...the average minimum should drop a degree to the 1960's average... decade....Ave.t.....High.....low....ave.max/min...max...min...rainfall...snowfall... 1870's.....42.2.....45.5.....37.0.............................76.......7.....3.66".....0.9" 1880's.....43.2.....45.5.....38.7.....67.3.....21.2.....71.....13.....3.54".....1.8" 1890's.....45.1.....49.9.....41.5.....66.7.....24.1.....72.....14.....3.76".....3.3" 1900's.....45.7.....51.6.....39.7.....65.8.....26.6.....74.....19.....1.91".....0.3" 1910's.....45.0.....47.8.....41.6.....69.5.....26.7.....76.....19.....2.90".....0.2" 1920's.....45.6.....49.2.....43.9.....70.0.....24.1.....76.....12.....2.65".....0.1" 1930's.....46.2.....51.9.....41.8.....70.4.....21.4.....78.....12.....3.05".....2.2" 1940's.....47.5.....52.4.....44.2.....70.4.....27.5.....74.....23.....3.59".....0.6" 1950's.....47.1.....49.7.....43.5.....70.5.....24.5.....84.....16.....3.80".....0.5" 1960's.....47.3.....50.4.....42.5.....69.9.....28.7.....78.....20.....3.73".....0.3" 1970's.....47.6.....52.5.....41.7.....71.5.....25.7.....81.....17.....4.91".....0.3" 1980's.....47.7.....50.4.....44.6.....72.4.....26.9.....79.....18.....4.97".....0.6" 1990's.....47.6.....52.0.....43.0.....72.0.....27.7.....80.....23.....3.41".....0.3" 2000's.....48.6.....52.7.....45.3.....70.0.....28.0.....79.....22.....3.77".....trace 2010's.....47.9.....51.9.....43.9.....70.1.....29.5.....74.....22.....2.96".....0.7".....2010-2017 1870- 2009........46.2...........................69.7.....25.6........................3.55".....0.8" 1980- 2009........48.0...........................71.5.....27.5........................4.05".....0.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 25 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Let’s just ban that awul word. Hes talking about teleconnections. Tellies sounds like he’s talking about the telletubbies That would be great, tellies sounds very weird and I don’t like it... maybe we can say Tconns if really short on time or just say teleconnections. It looks like it will become warmer and then it will become cool again around 11/27 or 11/28. I don’t think we’ll see any more snow this month but I think that 12/3 to 12/10 is a time to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Pattern looks quite locked and loaded by November 29/30 - December 10th Snow is likely due to the source region of the cold air and the - 3 SD block. I fixed your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Pattern looks quite locked and loaded by November 29/30. The only thing working against us is climo (averages are almost 50F). Also I wouldn't be surprised to see the systems next week trend south as the strong -NAO begins to exert its influence. Test Gfs strongly suggests that possibility. However snow would still be unlikely due to a lack of cold air. Why would we have a lack of cold air if we have a strong -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: Why would we have a lack of cold air if we have a strong -NAO? It’s always plenty cold by the end of November in Canada. I wouldn’t worry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 32 minutes ago, TriPol said: Why would we have a lack of cold air if we have a strong -NAO? This is for the storms after Thanksgiving and prior to the Nov 29 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 57 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s always plenty cold by the end of November in Canada. I wouldn’t worry about that. agree-if we remember back to 12/5/03, there was a torch in the week before, we got the -NAO/-AO and cold poured in and 15 inches of snow later.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: agree-if we remember back to 12/5/03, there was a torch in the week before, we got the -NAO/-AO and cold poured in and 15 inches of snow later.... It also melted right away... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, North and West said: It also melted right away... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ yep-gone in a 4-5 with a massive cutter that followed...but that's life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Quick coating with the arctic front Wednesday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Quick coating with the arctic front Wednesday night? Looks like the FV3 says starts as rain especially the coast but finishes as snow,,,,,but that is tomorrow night and not the front on Wednesday ,,,,,any one care to add insight ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Gorgeous retrogression of the current record block north of Iceland to around Baffin Island/Greenland in about 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Wow weeklies are cold throughout December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 5 hours ago, Brian5671 said: agree-if we remember back to 12/5/03, there was a torch in the week before, we got the -NAO/-AO and cold poured in and 15 inches of snow later.... Biggest storm of the winter, but we had a lot of decent events later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 5 hours ago, North and West said: It also melted right away... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Hey, they usually do. In the best winters more falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Gorgeous retrogression of the current record block north of Iceland to around Baffin Island/Greenland in about 10 days. What does this mean?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 29 minutes ago, North and West said: What does this mean? . Slower and bigger storms. Definitely snowier and colder or drier and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 It's bad if you like nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Wow weeklies are cold throughout December If the Pacific and Atlantic blocking decide to take a break, I hope it occurs between 12/10-12/22. I do not want another Grinch storm / blowtorch for Christmas like it has been for 3 of the last 5 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 15 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Let’s just ban that awul word. Hes talking about teleconnections. Tellies sounds like he’s talking about the telletubbies or TVs for Brits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 40degs., or about 4degs. BN. Month to date is -1.7[47.8]. Should be -2.3[45.5] by the 28th. The earliest we could see Snow again here would be Dec. 4-7, according to the CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Earliest 0 on record for Caribou, Maine. New record low temperature set at Caribou for Nov 19...0 degrees breaks the old record of 1 set in 1992 and marks the earliest zero or lower reading on record. Houlton also set a daily minimum record with a -8 reading breaking the old record of 1 set in 1992. #mewx 6:44 AM - 19 Nov 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 53 minutes ago, bluewave said: Earliest 0 on record for Caribou, Maine. New record low temperature set at Caribou for Nov 19...0 degrees breaks the old record of 1 set in 1992 and marks the earliest zero or lower reading on record. Houlton also set a daily minimum record with a -8 reading breaking the old record of 1 set in 1992. #mewx 6:44 AM - 19 Nov 2018 Several NE stations also set coldest so early last Nov around the 10th, then may do it again on Thurs-Fri, in addition to the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 51 minutes ago, doncat said: Several NE stations also set coldest so early last Nov around the 10th, then may do it again on Thurs-Fri, in addition to the above. Record cold during November at any of our major climate stations can be an indicator of further near to record cold at some point from December to March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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