CIK62 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Next 7 days averaging 59 now, or about 9/10degs. AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 It’s been consistently windy for the last frw weeks and it looks like more on the way. We haven’t had many days of light winds and radiatinal cooling at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s been consistently windy for the last frw weeks and it looks like more on the way. We haven’t had many days of light winds and radiational cooling at night. We have north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 Warmer than normal and stormy first week of November coming up. Very active cutter pattern with wind and rain chances. Similar to the October means with a ridge along the East Coast and the trough over the Central US. So we continue to have blend of El Nino and La Nina influences. One of the few El Nino Octobers with a +SOI. Average SOI for last 30 days 3.49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Warmer than normal and stormy first week of November coming up. Very active cutter pattern with wind and rain chances. Similar pattern to the October means with a ridge along the East Coast and the trough over the Central US. So we continue to have blend of El Nino and la Nina influences. One of the few El Nino Octobers with a +SOI. Yeah, today the SOI was plus 15. And like you said ,the SOI has been very positive the last 30 days. Wonder when we transition to a more typical Nino pattern and leave in the past any Nina hangover effects. I have heard different points of view on this. I do like seeing the Eastern Nino regions rather coolish with the continued 1.0 to 1.1 in the Central Pac. regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 19 minutes ago, frd said: Yeah, today the SOI was plus 15. And like you said ,the SOI has been very positive the last 30 days. Wonder when we transition to a more typical Nino pattern and leave in the past any Nina hangover effects. I have heard different points of view on this. I do like seeing the Eastern Nino regions rather coolish with the continued 1.0 to 1.1 in the Central Pac. regions. Those very warm SST's east of Australia are what we typically see with a La Nina +SOI regime. So for the time being, it looks like an atmospheric battle of competing influences. I think this is why we have been seeing these big week 2 model flips. Add the MJO to the mix, and it's tough to extrapolate much past the 6-10 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: Those very warm SST's east of Australia are what we typically see with a La Nina +SOI regime. So for the time being, it looks like an atmospheric battle of competing influences. I think this is why we have been seeing these big week 2 model flips. Add the MJO to the mix, and it's tough to extrapolate much past the 6-10 day period. Very interesting ......do you have any insights into the cooler waters West of Australia ? Meaning do they help the SSTS warm up in the West Pac , sort of like a feedback of sorts ? And, do you feel there is any relatiosnship ( as one private sector met I will not name talked about this month ) between those cooler waters and the MJO staying ( influencing it ) in more favorable cold phases this winter season in the East ( as in more MJO phases 1, 2 and less 5 and 6 ) . Thanks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Warmer than normal and stormy first week of November coming up. Very active cutter pattern with wind and rain chances. Similar to the October means with a ridge along the East Coast and the trough over the Central US. So we continue to have blend of El Nino and La Nina influences. One of the few El Nino Octobers with a +SOI. Average SOI for last 30 days 3.49 Gfs has a snow chance at 288 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Gfs has a snow chance at 288 Brings to mind, Mary Martin singing about an Optimist in South Pacific, however without them the world would be a miserable place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 31, 2018 Author Share Posted October 31, 2018 The 12z GFS looks pretty wet from Thursday night thru Saturday morning at least. Looks like an active period moving forward with another storm around Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 1 hour ago, rclab said: Brings to mind, Mary Martin singing about an Optimist in South Pacific, however without them the world would be a miserable place. And with the same validity as a 2-week out hurricane forecast. It might curse the rest of the winter anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 Nice day today. No torch but certainly a mild Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 Euro has the 1st legit shot of cold air from 192 -240 entering the U.S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 ^ EPS supports it Maybe our 1st wintry threat mid month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 19 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s been consistently windy for the last frw weeks and it looks like more on the way. We haven’t had many days of light winds and radiatinal cooling at night. Past few nights have radiated to freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 6 hours ago, Juliancolton said: Nice day today. No torch but certainly a mild Halloween. Yeah I finally got out for a ride after giving my buggered up hand a few months to recover and it was mid 60's through filtered sun and nice dry air. Most of the leaves are down, I know up by you it's pretty much stick season because I was up there yesterday. If those mid month forecasts start to look more possible I guess I'm gonna have to break down and get those new tires I've been needing for a few months. My car is already sketchy when it's wet, white would be out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: Yeah I finally got out for a ride after giving my buggered up hand a few months to recover and it was mid 60's through filtered sun and nice dry air. Most of the leaves are down, I know up by you it's pretty much stick season because I was up there yesterday. If those mid month forecasts start to look more possible I guess I'm gonna have to break down and get those new tires I've been needing for a few months. My car is already sketchy when it's wet, white would be out of the question. Areas close to the river are still at peak even as you go north of me. This was in Red Hook this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Some rainy days coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 First 8 days of Nov. are averaging 60degs.!. This is about a whopping 10degs. AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Very warm start to November out here on Long Island. Low of 55 degrees at Islip. The normal low temperature for November 1st is 41 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 1, 2018 Author Share Posted November 1, 2018 Late tonight thru the first half of Saturday continues to look pretty wet on the NAM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Nice storm signal on the GFS 6z around 260hrs far away, but the signal is there for a winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 On October 31, 2018 at 8:40 AM, frd said: Very interesting ......do you have any insights into the cooler waters West of Australia ? Meaning do they help the SSTS warm up in the West Pac , sort of like a feedback of sorts ? And, do you feel there is any relatiosnship ( as one private sector met I will not name talked about this month ) between those cooler waters and the MJO staying ( influencing it ) in more favorable cold phases this winter season in the East ( as in more MJO phases 1, 2 and less 5 and 6 ) . Thanks ! Since the beginning of October, we have seen this back and forth between El Nino and La Nina influences. The result has been a very stormy pattern. While temperature swings between warm and cold have occurred, the warmth has been more impressive so far than the cold. Our next clue about the start of winter will be with the Euro monthly release on November 5th. It should create some interesting conversations when it hits twitter and the weather forum community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 4 hours ago, CIK62 said: First 8 days of Nov. are averaging 60degs.!. This is about a whopping 10degs. AN. Incredible, just as warm as October was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 1, 2018 Author Share Posted November 1, 2018 Current temp is 67 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Mid November should be watched for an east coast storm with the deep trough in the east. Interior areas have the best chance of snow if a storm develops but the coast should also watch out for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 74F, almost a record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 The latest guidance shows PWAT values reaching or exceeding 1.50" at times during the next 7 days. In addition, total precipitation for this period is forecast to range from 1"-3" with some amounts in excess of 4". As a result, it is possible that by the end of the first week in November, 2018 will have moved up to become New York City's 20th wettest year on record. Some possible changes in 2018's rankings based on various precipitation amounts for the next 7 days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 had to turn on the ac today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 1, 2018 Author Share Posted November 1, 2018 Heavy rain threat continues for tomorrow into the first half of Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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