PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 If we do the grand tour into 7 /8 / 1 with amplitude , the month of December should end up cold and snowy. As it is starting with the back few days of November into the 1st 10 days or so should feature a major E/C storm. Prob 2 legit shots before the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 That wind last night was howling. Good Luck Point Marina had a gust of 57 mph and sustained 36 mph. Way windier than I thought. Had a few power flickers overnight, and had to chase my garbage can down the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Great stat from Josh Timlin. Check out how 1st and 3rd place occurred during the 2010's extreme snowfall period. The last 1” or more of snow in Central Park fell on April 2. If an inch were to accumulate this Thursday, then 2018 would place 3rd for the least number of days between 1” snow events. Records go back to 1869 (149 years). pic.twitter.com/VrHRYLFWvU There you have it. The 3rd shortest break between the end of one snow season and the start of the next in NYC. This includes 149 years of data back to 1869!pic.twitter.com/3YeuVTPi5F 5:15 AM - 16 Nov 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 ^^In a way this was a bit stranger than 2011. That was after the atmosphere had experienced a significantly turbulent event (Irene) and wavelengths were messed with bringing a higher chance for an anomalous cold air intrusion. This was just sort of "in the course of things". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Alot of sleepless nights if the models are right with the pattern at the end of this month into next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Alot of sleepless nights if the models are right with the pattern at the end of this month into next month. How so? At work and no time to dive into model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 hour ago, cut said: How so? At work and no time to dive into model. Models have been hinting at the possibility of another big storm towards the end of next week with some blocking possible and another juiced southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 hour ago, cut said: How so? At work and no time to dive into model. Strong blocking (AO forecast to drop to perhaps -4.000 or bellow), possible cold, and potential storminess. It's still far out, but the pattern could become quite exciting if the guidance is reasonably accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Great stat from Josh Timlin. Check out how 1st and 3rd place occurred during the 2010's extreme snowfall period. The last 1” or more of snow in Central Park fell on April 2. If an inch were to accumulate this Thursday, then 2018 would place 3rd for the least number of days between 1” snow events. Records go back to 1869 (149 years). pic.twitter.com/VrHRYLFWvU There you have it. The 3rd shortest break between the end of one snow season and the start of the next in NYC. This includes 149 years of data back to 1869!pic.twitter.com/3YeuVTPi5F 5:15 AM - 16 Nov 2018 what about the shortest period between 6 inches events? This must be the shortest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Strong blocking (AO forecast to drop to perhaps -4.000 or bellow), possible cold, and potential storminess. It's still far out, but the pattern could become quite exciting if the guidance is reasonably accurate. wow would that low of an AO be a record for November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Good stuff - thanks for the brief - much appreciated. Me likey!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: what about the shortest period between 6 inches events? This must be the shortest. March 21st was the last so 238 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wow would that low of an AO be a record for November? The lowest AO reading on record for November is -5.896, which occurred on November 18, 1959. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: March 21st was the last so 238 days well the April 2 event was 6 inches in many parts of the city and you can round KNYC to 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The lowest AO reading on record for November is -5.896, which occurred on November 18, 1959. Thanks Don, is this projected to be the lowest one since then? I dont remember anything this low from the 90s onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 DT is talking about 2 possible snowstorms in the east One at the end of this month and the other one in early December. Right now the tellies look awesome if you are a snow and cold lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: DT is talking about 2 possible snowstorms in the east One at the end of this month and the other one in early December. Right now the tellies look awesome if you are a snow and cold lover. Exciting - we started the winter off fantastically - the December 2nd Storm looks VERY interesting. The Arctic Oscillation index straight up plunges almost off the chart end of November and pops back up Dec -- looks extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks Don, is this projected to be the lowest one since then? I dont remember anything this low from the 90s onward. It could fall to -4.5, which would be the lowest November figure since 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, Dino said: Exciting - we started the winter off fantastically - the December 2nd Storm looks VERY interesting. The Arctic Oscillation index straight up plunges almost off the chart end of November and pops back up Dec -- looks extreme. Archembault event in early December! Maybe around the 5th when we have gotten some of our huge snowstorms? Based on that looks like it would be before that? The weekend after the end of November? Thanksgiving weekend- is that looking stormy too or more like cold and dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: DT is talking about 2 possible snowstorms in the east One at the end of this month and the other one in early December. Right now the tellies look awesome if you are a snow and cold lover. Pattern looks incredible, obviously that doesn't mean a huge snow event will occur but the chances are much higher than normal. Starting to see OP runs correct to the projected blocking pattern with plenty of hints at big storms as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: what about the shortest period between 6 inches events? This must be the shortest. Interesting point. No other year in the top 10 comes close to having both the spring and fall storms at 5"+ other than this one. Also interesting, in the top ten the most recent one before 2011 was 71 years prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Next 8 days up slightly to average 41degs., or about 4 degs. BN. Month to date is -1.5[48.5]. Should be -2.3[46.0] by the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Models continuing with a near to record 500 mb block for this time of year in the eastern NAO region. 500 mb heights approach 580 dm very close to the edge of the Arctic Circle just east of Iceland. This is close to the region experiencing record low Arctic ice values for this time of year. Record low #Arctic sea ice area continues around Svalbard (since at least 1967 - @Istjenesten charts). Temperatures at Longyearbyen (~78°N latitude) have been 6.8°C above average in last 30 days. + Weather data:yr.no/place/Norway/S… … + Sea ice data: polarview.met.nopic.twitter.com/G41EuQJR3p 12:23 PM - 12 Nov 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Euro and (now) GFS have frigid temps across the northeast for Black Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 3 hours ago, weathermedic said: Euro and (now) GFS have frigid temps across the northeast for Black Friday. Both Euro and GFS have an Arctic front for Thanksgiving. If NYC can make it to 23 or colder, then it would be a top 5 coldest Thanksgiving. In addition, Black Friday could see an impressive radiational cooling event if the Arctic high comes right over the area. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/Top5Thanksgiving.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 I’ve kept my ‘cool’ weather vegetables going (lettuce, broccoli) even through the snow on Thursday, but those temps for Thanksgiving will call for final harvest (appropriately) if verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Hopefully, we can put those NYC record low maxes of 23 and 25 in play for the 22nd and 23rd, respectively. From what I recall, the 12z EURO/GFS hints that NYC may not rise above the mid 20s for highs during one of those days. In other news, it looks like the NWS is sticking to its guns for a warmer-than-normal winter for a majority of the USA in its updated winter outlook, surprisingly: Quote NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) updated their winter outlook covering December through February. Warmer than normal weather is still anticipated across much of the northern and western U.S., with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. Below average temperatures are not favored in any parts of the nation through the period. Minimal changes were made to the precipitation forecast. Wetter than average conditions are still anticipated across the southern tier of the U.S. up into the Mid-Atlantic. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation this winter. Below normal precipitation are most likely in the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. The previous forecast issued last month also included drier than normal weather in the northern Rockies, but this area has been removed. http://www.weathernationtv.com/news/updated-winter-outlook-from-noaas-climate-prediction-center/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 27 minutes ago, Hailstorm said: Hopefully, we can put those NYC record low maxes of 23 and 25 in play for the 22nd and 23rd, respectively. From what I recall, the 12z EURO/GFS hints that NYC may not rise above the mid 20s for highs during one of those days. It all depends on the timing of the Arctic front. Thanksgiving may have one of those highs right after midnight. It could remain in the 20’s during the afternoon which would still be impressive. Friday may be a radiational cooling morning before temperatures rebound during the afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 A few systems to watch Next Tuesday Next weekend ( see 18z gfs para ) Last week of November 1st week of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 The CPC output's are like a child's finger painting exercise, except this child has just one color to work with. Every 3 month period for the next year is AN or just NORMAL, everywhere. Surely this can not be right, even with global warming. It could not even get this month right with a low lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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