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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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At 1pm, the storm responsible for bringing another round of significant precipitation to the Middle Atlantic and New England regions was departing. Some additional showers are likely to persist through the day, especially across eastern Long Island and eastern New England.

Record daily rainfall amounts for November 12:

Athens, GA: 2.37” (old record: 1.58”, 1992)
Charlotte: 1.78” (old record: 1.54”, 2002)
Florence, SC: 1.35” (old record: 1.33”, 2002)
Greensboro: 2.46” (old record: 1.76”, 2009)
Raleigh: 3.17” (old record: 3.12”, 1975)

Record daily rainfall amounts for November 13:

Islip: 1.47” (old record: 1.30”, 1982)

As of 1 pm, storm total rainfall amounts, year-to-date precipitation, and 2018’s ranking amount the wettest years for select cities were:

Rain11132018-MA.jpg

 

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the most snow NYC got on Nov. 15th and 16th is 1"...1872 got an inch on the 16th...in December 18" fell on 12/26...60" fell that winter...Nov  15th 1906 saw 1" of snow in NYC...later on in the winter there was an 11" storm in early February...53" fell that winter...

1872...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1872-11-17/ed-1/seq-9/

1906...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1906-11-16/ed-1/seq-1/

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3 hours ago, uncle W said:

the most snow NYC got on Nov. 15th and 16th is 1"...1872 got an inch on the 16th...in December 18" fell on 12/26...60" fell that winter...Nov  15th 1906 saw 1" of snow in NYC...later on in the winter there was an 11" storm in early February...53" fell that winter...

1872...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1872-11-17/ed-1/seq-9/

1906...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1906-11-16/ed-1/seq-1/

12/26 is a really big day for snow around here.....imagine if all those snowstorms that occurred that day had occurred a day earlier lol

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During the November 15-16 period, another significant precipitation event, with general amounts of 0.50"-1.50" is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. It is possible that by the end of the storm, both Baltimore and Reading will establish new record annual precipitation figures.

Below is a table with year-to-date, 2018's rank among the wettest years, and rankings for various precipitation amounts for select cities.

Rain11142018-MA.jpg

This storm will likely bring a portion of the region its first measurable snowfall of the season. It remains plausible that both New York City and Boston could pick up a measurable snowfall. Interior sections running from northeastern Pennsylvania to central Massachusetts could pick up a solid 3"-6" snow with locally higher amounts.

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Models continue to correct stronger with the coming late November -NAO block. This could be among the strongest that we have seen this time of year since 1995. These events in the past usually continued into December and beyond in the years below. So this may very well turn out to be an important event when we look back on this winter.

Greatest late November -NAO drops since 1995 and the following DJFM periods -NAO/-AO

http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii

2017 11 20 -1.293.....Mar...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Mar...-AO
2010 11 26 -2.632.....Dec/Jan...-NAO..Dec/Jan....-AO
2008 11 30 -1.823.....Dec/Jan...-NAO..Feb..-AO
2005 11 25 -2.181.....Dec/Feb/Mar...-NAO..Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar....-AO
2002 11 23 -1.025.....Dec...-NAO...Dec/Jan...-AO
2000 11 27 -1.216.....Dec/Mar...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar...-AO
1997 11 30 -1.932.....Dec/Feb...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Mar...-AO
1996 11 19 -1.851.....Dec/Jan...-NAO...Dec/Jan...-AO
1995 11 16 -1.751.....Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Mar...-AO
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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

12/26 is a really big day for snow around here.....imagine if all those snowstorms that occurred that day had occurred a day earlier lol

there were more than a few storms on Dec. 26...

1872...18.0" on 12/26...

1890.....7.0" on 12/26

1933...11.2" on 12/26

1947...25.8" on 12/26-27

1969.....6.0" on 12/25-26

2010...20.0" on 12/26-27

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On 11/6/2018 at 10:17 AM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

A little heads up for those in the interior and all the way into New England your seasons 1st snowstorm is on the way next week.

 

Here`s another one for you all. The period to watch will be between Nov 27th - Dec 15th where more than 1 snow event is possible.

 

This is 500 mb map for a period that many here remember and this is what the models are now seeing.

 

 

Composite Plot

 

 

gefs_z500a_nh_57.png

 

 

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10 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

The upper jet associated with bombogenesis over Labrador this morning continues to impress.

300mb wind speeds at Gray, ME - only ever exceeded in Jan-Feb during the period of record:

gray.thumb.png.a3a81bf47444a1d3c097634bda93a16d.png

Yarmouth, NS exceeded 200KT at a few levels:

yarmouth.thumb.png.8a4d17e9b7801b5ba1f94176a82ebafd.png

 

The blocking that will take place is really impressive.

It has been several years since we had a snowy December.

All the indices look great as we move into late month.

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54 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The blocking that will take place is really impressive.

It has been several years since we had a snowy December.

All the indices look great as we move into late month.

The CFSv2 has been evolving toward a colder December outlook after starting out depicting an exceptionally warm December. I suspect that the month will be blocky and the forecast development and evolution of strong Atlantic blocking at this time of year is encouraging. The pieces continue to gradually fall into place for what I believe will be a fantastic winter in terms of snowfall (much above average across the region, including interior cities such as Allentown, Scranton, and Binghamton).

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

During the November 15-16 period, another significant precipitation event, with general amounts of 0.50"-1.50" is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. It is possible that by the end of the storm, both Baltimore and Reading will establish new record annual precipitation figures.

Below is a table with year-to-date, 2018's rank among the wettest years, and rankings for various precipitation amounts for select cities.

Rain11142018-MA.jpg

This storm will likely bring a portion of the region its first measurable snowfall of the season. It remains plausible that both New York City and Boston could pick up a measurable snowfall. Interior sections running from northeastern Pennsylvania to central Massachusetts could pick up a solid 3"-6" snow with locally higher amounts.

A while back I looked at 2 local WU stations and did a quick tally and by mid September both were well over 50". It's kind of surprising that BDR and POU are both hovering near there now but I know there were lots of times where it was pouring here and they got skunked. I'll have to go back and add up the totals from 9/10 to now and see how far past 60" my area is now. I can tell you that it's so soggy in the woods it's tough to leave the more heavily traveled areas without sinking in a couple of inches. 

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35 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The CFSv2 has been evolving toward a colder December outlook after starting out depicting an exceptionally warm December. I suspect that the month will be blocky and the forecast development and evolution of strong Atlantic blocking at this time of year is encouraging. The pieces continue to gradually fall into place for what I believe will be a fantastic winter in terms of snowfall (much above average across the region, including interior cities such as Allentown, Scranton, and Binghamton).

Don't toy with my emotions Don!  ;)

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

A while back I looked at 2 local WU stations and did a quick tally and by mid September both were well over 50". It's kind of surprising that BDR and POU are both hovering near there now but I know there were lots of times where it was pouring here and they got skunked. I'll have to go back and add up the totals from 9/10 to now and see how far past 60" my area is now. I can tell you that it's so soggy in the woods it's tough to leave the more heavily traveled areas without sinking in a couple of inches. 

Other parts of the region have seen more precipitation. For example, Norfolk (2 SW) in Connecticut has received 58.61" to date.

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The Euro seasonal was posted on their free site which originally came out on November 5th. It continues this late November -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO pattern right through March. This looks like it may be the latest version of 2010's patterns getting stuck in place for extended periods of time.

IMG_0329.PNG.9440a26f51c21c22c90447aad496095a.PNG

IMG_0331.PNG.27ba0b0c6e833be6b36f1397cde0c1e6.PNG

BCqi3fvCYAA8QxK.jpg-small.jpg.d6a3bb00350b529cf4758f7c51dac683.jpg

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