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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in New York City Metro

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Dino said:

Storm thread for Thur/Friday?  Snow potential....

Not sure if it's thread worthy just yet but the GFS and the GGEM have a solid front end dump N&W on Thursday afternoon and evening. Issue will be getting the column saturated before the warm air aloft takes over. 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

The seasonal models that went cold for NYC in December may be onto something. Latest guidance is forecasting a possible NAO drop below -1 after November 15th. Since 2010, this occurred in 2017 and 2010. These were the only NYC Decembers to feature colder than average monthly temperature departures since then. Both Decembers had above average snowfall and either a -AO or -NAO.

http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii

11/15-11/30 lowest NAO value 

2017 11 20 NAO -1.293...Dec...-2.5...7.7"....-AO
2010 11 30 NAO -2.696...Dec...-4.5...20.1"...-NAO....-AO

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.66facacbea21ffc47f83966f8a60a35e.gif

 

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Dino

Dino

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

The 12Z Euro shows 4 - 8 inches across Northern / Central NJ into NYC on Thursday

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/snow-depth-in/20181116-0100z.html

12z Euro looks beautiful. 

also, seems 18z GFS just made a big correction eastward, heavier snow closer to the city now on the 2nd wave/Friday. something to keep an eye on for sure.

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

The 12Z Euro shows 4 - 8 inches across Northern / Central NJ into NYC on Thursday

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/snow-depth-in/20181116-0100z.html

I'll believe it when I see it - NWS not buying into appreciable snow for anyone in our area, except the usual interior locations, like the Poconos, Sussex/Warren, Hudson Valley, Catskills, etc.  Sure that can change, but predicting a major snowfall for this area in mid-Nov 3-4 days out is risky business.   

Thursday through Friday...A cut-off upper low positioned across the
ArkLaTex region Wednesday will get picked up and ejected
northeastward across the Ohio Valley by another upper trough digging
southward through Friday. This will result in another area of low
pressure developing and moving up the East Coast late Thursday
through Friday. With the colder air that will be in place in the
wake of the early week system and high pressure anchored initially
across New England, wintery mix (rain mixing with snow/sleet) is
looking more likely at the onset of this event, particularly our
northern-most zones and higher elevations where precip may remain a
mix of rain/snow or all snow through the majority of the event. The
onset mixed precip type may easily be experienced across even our
southern most zones. The latest ECMWF and GFS have trended faster
with precip onset time (as early as daybreak Thursday), meaning less
time to warmup with daytime heating or advection before precip
overrunning begins. The faster the system is, the more widespread
mixed precip will result. This will also depend on the exact track
of the low, which is still uncertain. All that said, temperatures
are expected to be too warm in most area for any significant or
measurable accumulations. The Poconos may have some light
accumulations, however, if temps remain cold enough. Even after
precip begins, temperatures will warm throughout the day into the
upper 30s and 40s except the Poconos where temps are more likely to
remain closer to the freezing mark. Expecting about 1-1.5 inches of
rainfall with this system as of now. Rain will come to an end by
late Friday morning with a few showers lingering through the
afternoon hours.
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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I'll believe it when I see it - NWS not buying into appreciable snow for anyone in our area, except the usual interior locations, like the Poconos, Sussex/Warren, Hudson Valley, Catskills, etc.  Sure that can change, but predicting a major snowfall for this area in mid-Nov 3-4 days out is risky business.   


Thursday through Friday...A cut-off upper low positioned across the
ArkLaTex region Wednesday will get picked up and ejected
northeastward across the Ohio Valley by another upper trough digging
southward through Friday. This will result in another area of low
pressure developing and moving up the East Coast late Thursday
through Friday. With the colder air that will be in place in the
wake of the early week system and high pressure anchored initially
across New England, wintery mix (rain mixing with snow/sleet) is
looking more likely at the onset of this event, particularly our
northern-most zones and higher elevations where precip may remain a
mix of rain/snow or all snow through the majority of the event. The
onset mixed precip type may easily be experienced across even our
southern most zones. The latest ECMWF and GFS have trended faster
with precip onset time (as early as daybreak Thursday), meaning less
time to warmup with daytime heating or advection before precip
overrunning begins. The faster the system is, the more widespread
mixed precip will result. This will also depend on the exact track
of the low, which is still uncertain. All that said, temperatures
are expected to be too warm in most area for any significant or
measurable accumulations. The Poconos may have some light
accumulations, however, if temps remain cold enough. Even after
precip begins, temperatures will warm throughout the day into the
upper 30s and 40s except the Poconos where temps are more likely to
remain closer to the freezing mark. Expecting about 1-1.5 inches of
rainfall with this system as of now. Rain will come to an end by
late Friday morning with a few showers lingering through the
afternoon hours.

NWS is always conservative this far out - the first snowfalls of the season always seem to be the most difficult to predict - the entire setup depends on the exact track of the upper low swinging around later Thursday into Friday - the fresh injection of cold air just prior to this system is key - also remember it is possible to have accumulating snow around here in mid November - late October 2011 and 2nd week of Nov 2012 are classic examples...….

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TJW014

TJW014

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I'll believe it when I see it - NWS not buying into appreciable snow for anyone in our area, except the usual interior locations, like the Poconos, Sussex/Warren, Hudson Valley, Catskills, etc.  Sure that can change, but predicting a major snowfall for this area in mid-Nov 3-4 days out is risky business.   


Thursday through Friday...A cut-off upper low positioned across the
ArkLaTex region Wednesday will get picked up and ejected
northeastward across the Ohio Valley by another upper trough digging
southward through Friday. This will result in another area of low
pressure developing and moving up the East Coast late Thursday
through Friday. With the colder air that will be in place in the
wake of the early week system and high pressure anchored initially
across New England, wintery mix (rain mixing with snow/sleet) is
looking more likely at the onset of this event, particularly our
northern-most zones and higher elevations where precip may remain a
mix of rain/snow or all snow through the majority of the event. The
onset mixed precip type may easily be experienced across even our
southern most zones. The latest ECMWF and GFS have trended faster
with precip onset time (as early as daybreak Thursday), meaning less
time to warmup with daytime heating or advection before precip
overrunning begins. The faster the system is, the more widespread
mixed precip will result. This will also depend on the exact track
of the low, which is still uncertain. All that said, temperatures
are expected to be too warm in most area for any significant or
measurable accumulations. The Poconos may have some light
accumulations, however, if temps remain cold enough. Even after
precip begins, temperatures will warm throughout the day into the
upper 30s and 40s except the Poconos where temps are more likely to
remain closer to the freezing mark. Expecting about 1-1.5 inches of
rainfall with this system as of now. Rain will come to an end by
late Friday morning with a few showers lingering through the
afternoon hours.

Imagine if that was in January the amount of snow we would get

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The seasonal models that went cold for NYC in December may be onto something. Latest guidance is forecasting a possible NAO drop below -1 after November 15th. Since 2010, this occurred in 2017 and 2010. These were the only NYC Decembers to feature colder than average monthly temperature departures since then. Both Decembers had above average snowfall and either a -AO or -NAO.

Looks like it's following 02/03 quite closely. 

Hard not to get excited at the potential next month, could be the best December since 2010. 

My only caveats are whether or not the air masses will be cold enough for snow and is the storm track going to hug the coast too closely.

It could definitely be a factor for the first half of December with still warm SSTs and unfavorable climo, and I could see the snow holding off until the Dec 20-31st period for the coastal plain despite blocking. 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like it's following 02/03 quite closely. 

Hard not to excited at the potential next month, could be the best December since 2010. 

Things started to turn around last December following the historic 2011-2016 warm run. Good to see that perma-cold pool south of Greenland warming in early November.

natlssta.png.ef334fc5c0dad9d45175a1f9d9248466.png

 

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