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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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5 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Possible snow next weekend ?

I wouldn't rule out some frozen precip.

The air masses that are coming through aren't too bad for mid November but we don't really have a strong, dynamic system that can bring those cold temps toward the coast.

I think we'll be waiting at least 3-4 weeks before we can take these threats more seriously. 

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Another storm will likely bring a general 0.50" to 1.00" precipitation with isolated amounts of up to 1.50" to parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions late Monday night into Tuesday, including Boston, New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. The following table depicts year-to-date precipitation, 2018's ranking, and ranking scenarios for 0.50" to 1.50" precipitation.

Annual-Precipitation11112018.jpg

Baltimore, Charleston (WV), and Reading remain on course to set a new annual precipitation record this year.

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On 11/10/2018 at 5:46 AM, NycStormChaser said:

Yeah it was definitely cold enough to support that yesterday morning 

Also snowed on Saturday morning after the cold front passed, we actually had some heavy snow squalls with sunshine in between (and some periods of snow with blue skies lol), everything had a coating on it.  Pond has frozen over also (a light freeze at the top.)

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The coming rainstorm has been getting underway across the South. Already, Atlanta has picked up 0.16" rain and Athens, GA has received 0.13". Periods of light rain have brought 0.02" to Nashville. In such cities as Atlanta, Florence, Greensboro, and Raleigh, 2.00"-3.00" rain is likely from the coming storm.

The GFS has moved into better agreement with the NAM overnight. It still appears that the NYC Metro Area and nearby region will likely pick up 0.50" to 1.00" rain with local amounts as high as 1.50".

Finally, New York City's Central Park continues to await its first freeze. Outside the City, temperatures were in the 20s at many locations. At 6 am, temperatures included: Danbury: 24°, Newark: 33°; Poughkeepsie: 24°, Westhampton: 21°, and White Plains: 29°. Following the storm, an even colder air mass should move across the region.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Long range guidance keeps shifting colder. A record November 588 dm ridge builds near the UK this week. So we get a colder -EPO/-NAO pattern. These extreme blocking patterns have become the new normal.

IMG_0324.thumb.PNG.2f14ff1d5919d993d2f9fe54de77e2e0.PNG

 

 

 

 

 

Euro has the NAO, AO and PNA staying favorable. Way different than the original forecast.

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32 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro has the NAO, AO and PNA staying favorable. Way different than the original forecast.

It would fit with our new 2010's fall climatology around here. November has been the only fall month able to generate cold for us.

NYC fall 2010's cold months

Sep.... 1 year just -0.2

Oct.....0 years

Nov... 4 years through Nov 17

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20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Got down to 22 last night. First real hard freeze of the season. 

Looks like a pattern shift to a more mild, less stormy regime will build in for Turkey week.

 

Not sure about a mild regime

Euro tellies show the NAO, AO and PNA favorable.

Maybe a very brief warm-up but nothing prolonged.

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