Rtd208 Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 The decline into winter continues. November looks like it could be pretty active with some fluctuations in temperature. Post them here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 November might not be warm according to the weeklies. The snow cover in Canada is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 27, 2018 Author Share Posted October 27, 2018 Pattern looks to remain active for the next couple of weeks at least. Maybe another storm brewing for next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Pattern looks to remain active for the next couple of weeks at least. Maybe another storm brewing for next weekend? It's on all the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 I'd love to see a few shots that show next weekend. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 The first three weeks of Nov. look AN at a record pace. Curtain of cold descends for good after that. This from the RRWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 13 hours ago, CIK62 said: The first three weeks of Nov. look AN at a record pace. Curtain of cold descends for good after that. This from the RRWT. It looks accurate though I don't know about record pace with the trough in the central US. There's also been a notable decrease in ssts off the Mid-Atlantic and NE coast, so I don't believe the WAR will over perform like in past months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 Well, the next 7 days are already averaging 58, a solid 6/7degs. AN. Remember that warmest Nov. ever, 3 years ago, was only +5.1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 Last 3 days of Oct. averaging 54degs., or about 2degs. AN. Month to date is +1.0[58.4]. Should end month at +1.1[57.9]. All 8 days are averaging 56degs., or about 5/6degs. AN. RRWT really screwy for first time since I have been monitoring it. Now calls next 30 Days Normal, instead of the +5 of yesterday and before. Will have to chuck it as just another refractory child. I still have my lucky dice anyway. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 The new gfs has 3 coastal lows throughout the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 29, 2018 Author Share Posted October 29, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Weeklies are cold as we move through November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 The EPS weeklies have been really struggling lately. The October 18th run completely missed the warm start to November that is coming. While the forecast skill has been pretty good week 1, week has left much to be desired. October 18th run https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1053067802561568768 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 On 10/28/2018 at 9:14 PM, CIK62 said: Well, the next 7 days are already averaging 58, a solid 6/7degs. AN. Remember that warmest Nov. ever, 3 years ago, was only +5.1. How can something that hasn't even happened yet "already [be] averaging" anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The EPS weeklies have been really struggling lately. The October 18th run completely missed the warm start to November that is coming. While the forecast skill has been pretty good week 1, week has left much to be desired. October 18th run https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1053067802561568768 At least the weather will be cool for the NYC Marathon! Perfect weather actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Cutter city the whole run on the GFS 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 8 hours ago, LibertyBell said: At least the weather will be cool for the NYC Marathon! Perfect weather actually. It does look like Sunday will have closer to seasonable temperatures for the marathon. But November should come in with above normal temperatures in its first few days. This was also a theme for 2015, 2016, and 2017. The pattern also looks very stormy with one cutter after another. So our 2018 wet pattern continues into November. Strong November cutter pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 41 minutes ago, MeteorologicalFan said: Cutter city the whole run on the GFS 06z run Good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Good news Huh? Enough with the wet already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 30, 2018 Author Share Posted October 30, 2018 47 minutes ago, bluewave said: It does look like Sunday will have closer to seasonable temperatures for the marathon. But November should come in with above normal temperatures in its first few days. This was also a theme for 2015, 2016, and 2017. The pattern also looks very stormy with one cutter after another. So our 2018 wet pattern continues into November. Strong November cutter pattern I would rather have the cutters now then in December or the rest of winter.The thing that I like seeing is the stormy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 You guys are silly bitching about cutters in Fall. They are climatologically favored by the wavelengths and average jet location. That’s why Denver has dual fall/spring snow maxima. Troughs tend to dig in the Plains from October to early December (Ridge-Trough-Ridge) and then mean troughiness moves to the east in a ridge-trough pattern for late December and Jan-Feb. It has always been thus. Enjoy your month of NW winds and stratocumulus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Isnt there a statistic... If we get a significant measurable snow before the last week of November, it has always led to a below normal snowfall winter? That said, if you like snowy winters, history tells us you dont want to see snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 24 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Isnt there a statistic... If we get a significant measurable snow before the last week of November, it has always led to a below normal snowfall winter? That said, if you like snowy winters, history tells us you dont want to see snow now. There really is no correlation between snowfall before the last week of November and the seasonal snowfall. Whether it snows early is more a reflection of the fall pattern. 2011 and 2012 are a great example of this. Both years featured record early snows. One winter was one of our worst for seasonal snowfall. The other featured one of our greatest February blizzards of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 I don’t want snow until late November. And hopefully after that it dumps up until early March like my predictions were made. Aha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 14 hours ago, bluewave said: The EPS weeklies have been really struggling lately. The October 18th run completely missed the warm start to November that is coming. While the forecast skill has been pretty good week 1, week has left much to be desired. October 18th run https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1053067802561568768 It's not like the CFS has been great either. I'm not particularly inclined to trust any temperature predictions beyond 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Gfs looks just as warm now for the first 10 days of November as it was in October. Several strong cutters making things very stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 48 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Gfs looks just as warm now for the first 10 days of November as it was in October. Several strong cutters making things very stormy. Cmc has a big dump of cold air by 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 4 hours ago, bluewave said: There really is no correlation between snowfall before the last week of November and the seasonal snowfall. Whether it snows early is more a reflection of the fall pattern. 2011 and 2012 are a great example of this. Both years featured record early snows. One winter was one of our worst for seasonal snowfall. The other featured one of our greatest February blizzards of all time. Actually there is a correlation. That El Nino winter with the record blizzard was the one time with any significant snow. If you didn’t have that blizzard, Central Park would’ve recorded 2 inches of snow that winter. Go back and look at the records of every time it has snowed before the final week in November. The winter that followed was bad if you liked snow. I don’t know if it’s a pure coincidence or if it’s reflective on a pattern...But that’s what history tells us in New York City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 39 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: I don’t know if it’s a pure coincidence or if it’s reflective on a pattern...But that’s what history tells us in New York City There is plenty of variety in the snowfall seasons following NYC snowfall before the last week of November. I don't think anyone would call March 1956 a bad outcome following the record November 19-20th snow in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Cutters are common in Autumn. I agree about the importance of a continuing stormy pattern heading into mid to late autumn Eventually the cold will mix in and we get our snows with more coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.