LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/21/2018 at 10:41 PM, Ericjcrash said: Due for 10 snow deprived winters. Expand the climate has radically changed, the next time it changes our south shore barrier islands will likely be underwater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/21/2018 at 7:33 PM, purduewx80 said: the source region for the incoming air mass is not emanating from far eastern canada. Expand Just west of Hudson Bay it's near -40 C/F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 1:53 AM, LibertyBell said: the climate has radically changed, the next time it changes our south shore barrier islands will likely be underwater. Expand What is the cause of this radical change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 1:58 AM, 495weatherguy said: What is the cause of this radical change? Expand warmer SST offshore causing storms that would ordinarily pass well offshore to come closer to the coast and big increase in 3+" liquid storms all across the continent with much higher levels of moisture than what we had back in the 70s and 80s. Also much slower moving storms with record levels of blocking in various parts of the hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 1:51 AM, 495weatherguy said: What I was trying to say was that it seems to me as though you have been on a bit of a hot streak seeing snowstorms before they materialize and when others discount the possibility---And I hope this doesn't continue this year---technically its not winter, I am aware, how about things changing back to a warm bias? Expand Warm bias for what? Are you trolling or not even looking at the pattern ahead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 2:14 AM, Snow88 said: Warm bias for what? Are you trolling or not even looking at the pattern ahead? Expand I promise you I’m not trolling. I was trying to give you a compliment. I’m merely hoping that winter is brief and snow is minimal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 2:04 AM, LibertyBell said: warmer SST offshore causing storms that would ordinarily pass well offshore to come closer to the coast and big increase in 3+" liquid storms all across the continent with much higher levels of moisture than what we had back in the 70s and 80s. Also much slower moving storms with record levels of blocking in various parts of the hemisphere. Expand Thank you for the explanation. I appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 2:16 AM, 495weatherguy said: Thank you for the explanation. I appreciate it Expand you're very welcome, it's just a piece of the puzzle. what SG said is also correct about the AMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 What has caused the warmer SST? Sorry if the question is basic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 2:14 AM, Snow88 said: Warm bias for what? Are you trolling or not even looking at the pattern ahead? Expand And no-I’m not looking at the pattern ahead. While I enjoy meteorology, I’m not in the same league as you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 2:22 AM, 495weatherguy said: What has caused the warmer SST? Sorry if the question is basic Expand Basically a product of the warm AMO. Oddly enough we are near the end of it and some even argue out of it now but the SST peak definitely occurred at the back end of it. We were probably in the meat of the warm AMO from about 2002-2008 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 2:40 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Basically a product of the warm AMO. Oddly enough we are near the end of it and some even argue out of it now but the SST peak definitely occurred at the back end of it. We were probably in the meat of the warm AMO from about 2002-2008 or so Expand Would I be incorrect in interpreting that statement to mean we may be going back to winters of less snow and less severe cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 2:49 AM, 495weatherguy said: Would I be incorrect in interpreting that statement to mean we may be going back to winters of less snow and less severe cold? Expand Less snow and more cold. I don't know how you think winters have been severe cold in recent memory. Severe cold winters were in the 1970's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 2:49 AM, 495weatherguy said: Would I be incorrect in interpreting that statement to mean we may be going back to winters of less snow and less severe cold? Expand We should. The cold AMO has correlated to snowier conditions in the mid Atlantic southeast Tennessee valley and southern plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 2:39 AM, 495weatherguy said: And no-I’m not looking at the pattern ahead. While I enjoy meteorology, I’m not in the same league as you Expand The pattern ahead is a good one for the east coast. Blocking is occurring right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Dews starting to plummet, should see a sharp temperature drop after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 2:54 AM, West Mtn NY said: Less snow and more cold. I don't know how you think winters have been severe cold in recent memory. Severe cold winters were in the 1970's Expand Well my memory is not perfect—I remember the 70’s as cold, but unremarkably so. The 80’s were a cakewalk-save for February of 1983. Storms always missed Long Island-you had to go north and west to see appreciable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 2:54 AM, West Mtn NY said: Less snow and more cold. I don't know how you think winters have been severe cold in recent memory. Severe cold winters were in the 1970's Expand And the cold recently may not be severe-I’m just getting older Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 2:59 AM, 495weatherguy said: Well my memory is not perfect—I remember the 70’s as cold, but unremarkably so. The 80’s were a cakewalk-save for February of 1983. Storms always missed Long Island-you had to go north and west to see appreciable snow. Expand Jan 87 had a big event that crippled parts of NJ, not sure how it played out out your way. And 82 had the Jan storm and the freak April blizzard.Then really nothing special from 88-93. I remember the Newark Star Ledger with a headline in 91, What happened to snowstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 3:00 AM, 495weatherguy said: And the cold recently may not be severe-I’m just getting older Expand I think that makes a difference. It got cold in Oct this year and I got up to go fishing a few times and changed my mind. WHen younger I routinely fished most of the winter, of course there were a lot more fish around back then and it didn't cost a fortune. A lot harder to brave the cold at sea when you will drowning bait most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 2:57 AM, Snow88 said: The pattern ahead is a good one for the east coast. Blocking is occurring right now. Expand Bring it. Bought a new craftsman single stage, which should be lighter and easier to move than my big MTD 2 stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 3:01 AM, weatherpruf said: Jan 87 had a big event that crippled parts of NJ, not sure how it played out out your way. And 82 had the Jan storm and the freak April blizzard.Then really nothing special from 88-93. I remember the Newark Star Ledger with a headline in 91, What happened to snowstorms? Expand I remember April 82-but it started to melt the very next day. I don’t recall the Jan of 82 storm. I don’t remember anything in 87. Doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. I do remember storms in 77/78, around first week of February that were big on LI-Feb 83 and then really nothing remarkable until 95/96. We were snow deprived. I must’ve missed a lot, but the frequency of 8 plus inch storms has increased a lot in the last 20 years. At least put on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 2:55 AM, SnowGoose69 said: We should. The cold AMO has correlated to snowier conditions in the mid Atlantic southeast Tennessee valley and southern plains Expand But the 2010s have been even more blocky than the 2000s, and we've seen record levels of blocking in the Pacific now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 3:11 AM, 495weatherguy said: I remember April 82-but it started to melt the very next day. I don’t recall the Jan of 82 storm. I don’t remember anything in 87. Doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. I do remember storms in 77/78, around first week of February that were big on LI-Feb 83 and then really nothing remarkable until 95/96. We were snow deprived. I must’ve missed a lot, but the frequency of 8 plus inch storms has increased a lot in the last 20 years. At least put on LI Expand It was cold for the entire week in April 1982 and we had a smaller snow event at the end of the week also. The Jan 82 storm caused a plane to go down in the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 2:54 AM, West Mtn NY said: Less snow and more cold. I don't know how you think winters have been severe cold in recent memory. Severe cold winters were in the 1970's Expand I honestly dont think that will happen. It's become far more humid year round than it was and our yearly rainfall averages are higher than they've ever been in recorded history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 3:18 AM, LibertyBell said: I honestly dont think that will happen. It's become far more humid year round than it was and our yearly rainfall averages are higher than they've ever been in recorded history. Expand Cold winters like that will probably never happen again. Occasionally we can get highly anomalous cold months (Feb 2015) and even cold winters like 13/14 & 14/15 but those are the exceptions. I think snowfall will average AN for another decade or so, but then the warming climate will quickly overwhelm us and drastically reduce our averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 3:27 AM, SnoSki14 said: Cold winters like that will probably never happen again. Occasionally we can get highly anomalous cold months (Feb 2015) and even cold winters like 13/14 & 14/15 but those are the exceptions. I think snowfall will average AN for another decade or so, but then the warming climate will quickly overwhelm us and drastically reduce our averages. Expand and rainfall will keep going up. Its already becoming sickeningly humid in the summer with all these 75+ dew points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/21/2018 at 7:33 PM, purduewx80 said: the source region for the incoming air mass is not emanating from far eastern canada. Expand I saw a plot on Twitter showing you its origins all the way from Siberia. The backwards trajectory from the NOAA HYSPLIT model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 The roads are full of salt Thanks sanitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 3:48 AM, Snow88 said: The roads are full of salt Thanks sanitation Expand So you're going to complain either way? I'm shocked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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