Mountain West Discussion

[finnster]

5 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

What seems to be happening is that with long-term changes, upper-level patterns are becoming more amplified/persistent so the big storms dig further south and east consistently. So we miss the upslope ones, which provide the most precip. I think that's the more alarming thing, since upslope storms provide the bulk of Oct-April precip east of the Divide till you get east of around 102 W. I have no met training at all, just lots of other science and good at recognizing patterns (I think).

Hi thanks for the reply.  I agree about missing the upslope storms. They used to occur with some regularity but now are quite rare - especially the last few years.  If this is a more or less a permanent feature of our front range climate I think our ‘semi-arid’ climate Is/will be considered an ‘arid’ one.  That transition seems to have already started IMHO.

 

 

 

[raindancewx]

Sorry this pattern hasn't worked out for you guys, I thought it'd be better for Colorado, but this pattern is delivering fairly well down here. This is the local NWS forecast for this storm, and a lot of areas had a dusting to an inch (valleys) or decent snows in the mountains (4-8") with the less interesting system today.

The 3-KM NAM has one of the greatest cutoffs for snow in Albuquerque I've ever seen, with 1-2" or less by the canyon entrance and I-40, and 5-8" on the NW side of the city, 20-30 miles apart.

My interpretation of the Euro, for the city itself looked like this, but I'll update it tonight once the new GFS and Euro runs come in. I happen to agree with the NAM that the cut off will be sharp. What probably saves this event to some extent is the snow ratios before/after any canyon winds, it is only supposed to be 29F on Friday here for the high.

[finnster]

22 hours ago, snowfan789 said:

I am reluctant to blame climate change on the lack of big storms just yet. We have had some notably big storms since 2000, and a fair amount of above average snowfall seasons since then too though, as we all know, the past 2.5 years have been truly terrible. I think we can safely say that marginally cold storms are more likely to elicit rain than snow than they once were. That happened most recently in Denver in early November 2018 as I recall. What would’ve been about a 3-6” snowfall in temps a few degrees colder ended up being rain for almost all of the metro area. I suspect the horrific past few years have been largely attributable to sea surface temperature distributions that may or may not have much relationship with climate change. I am not a meteorologist but have followed weather and climate for years. I am cautiously optimistic that things will eventually turn around for the Front Range when it comes to snow, aside from those marginally cold storms that typically occur in the fall and spring. With that said, unless our winter precip goes up as the climate continues to warm (which some models have predicted), I do think our average annual snowfall will go down because of rain replacing what would’ve been snow. How the current Southwest mega-drought plays into all of this I don’t know but that may be another important factor to consider.

Snowfall,

Thanks for your thoughtful reply.  I like you have not been one to be too quick to attribute the downward trend of snowfall to climate change (which is really not a new term because climate is always changing).  The net effect of the climate change, whatever the cause(s), is very unfavorable for the front range and other areas of the west/southwest US.  The problem is compounded by the ever-increasing population in these regions.  This growth will not/cannot be sustained, where will the water come from?  This of course is a whole different discussion.

You do mention the sea surface temperature distribution may be a culprit in our lousy weather patterns the last few years.  I’m just curious about what would be a more favorable distribution to look for?

[finnster]

15 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Sorry this pattern hasn't worked out for you guys, I thought it'd be better for Colorado, but this pattern is delivering fairly well down here. This is the local NWS forecast for this storm, and a lot of areas had a dusting to an inch (valleys) or decent snows in the mountains (4-8") with the less interesting system today.

The 3-KM NAM has one of the greatest cutoffs for snow in Albuquerque I've ever seen, with 1-2" or less by the canyon entrance and I-40, and 5-8" on the NW side of the city, 20-30 miles apart.

My interpretation of the Euro, for the city itself looked like this, but I'll update it tonight once the new GFS and Euro runs come in. I happen to agree with the NAM that the cut off will be sharp. What probably saves this event to some extent is the snow ratios before/after any canyon winds, it is only supposed to be 29F on Friday here for the high.

Rain dance - thanks.  I’m glad to hear ABQ and much of NM are catching some storms. The way things are going ABQ will surpass Denver for snowfall this season.   In fact Denver is about to have its third consecutive year (calendar) of below 30” of snow.  If you look at the records all the way back to the early 1880’s this appears to be unprecedented.  Even the dry periods of the 1930’s and 50’s even those years produced more snow.

So yea the CO front range is hurting in a big way for snow....

[snowfan789]

3 hours ago, finnster said:

Snowfall,

Thanks for your thoughtful reply.  I like you have not been one to be too quick to attribute the downward trend of snowfall to climate change (which is really not a new term because climate is always changing).  The net effect of the climate change, whatever the cause(s), is very unfavorable for the front range and other areas of the west/southwest US.  The problem is compounded by the ever-increasing population in these regions.  This growth will not/cannot be sustained, where will the water come from?  This of course is a whole different discussion.

You do mention the sea surface temperature distribution may be a culprit in our lousy weather patterns the last few years.  I’m just curious about what would be a more favorable distribution to look for?

Part of the problem has been a persistent warm blob in the North Pacific south of Alaska that has been blamed for the so-called ridiculously resilient ridge in the West. We have had a positive PNA pattern for much of the past few years, which is generally bad for snow in the Front Range, as it tends to prevent storms from taking a track and traveling at a (slow) speed that is favorable for upslope snowfall. The La Niña last year and the year before that was not favorable for snow in the Front Range either because storms tended not to track far enough south to generate upslope snowfall. Raindance and other regular posters here can probably say much more about this than I am capable of saying about this sea surface temp topic. The Atlantic (and NAO) can affect our weather too, as can other Pacific-related factors like the MJO and EPO. I am NOT convinced that climate change neccesarily will be terrible for snowfall in Colorado (the mountain snowpack is a different story, in my view, and the outlook is bleaker for points further south and southwest of here too). I don’t mean to minimize the very serious impacts of climate change but its future effect on the Front Range precip and snowfall specifically is just not yet clear, as far as I understand it. I would not be surprised to see more drought and bigger storms at times (more extremes).

[Voyager]

My truck driving plan is to drop south to aviod the mess that I-40 will be, and now it looks like I-10 will get in on "some" of the activities as well. NWS El Paso says perhaps up to 2 inches in the lowlands...

Ugh...

 

[raindancewx]

The snow is only just barely sticking to the roads where I am. I think in Albuquerque, I-40 and I-25 will be clear for a few hours. You may to divert yourself through Old Mexico. They can get snow down to Chihuahua too, but it won't happen with this system. I've had probably 1-2" at my place so far. There is an old rule for snow shadowing here, and I think the "Blizzard" part of the snow storm may come in weaker than expected, which to me means maybe I-40 east of ABQ gets 10-14" instead of 12-18", and the city gets 4-7" instead of 2-5". We'll see. The air pressure in Amarillo and CO Springs isn't as high relative to Albuquerque as I thought it'd be by now, and that's a good east-wind indicator.

[Chinook]

A different type of a sunset picture. This picture is taken facing north, in the dry slot of the storm in the central US, 22:42z, nearing sunset in the Central Time Zone

[Chinook]

First ever blizzard warning for Albuquerque?

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
251 PM MST Thu Dec 27 2018

WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  4 to 8 inches are expected in the Albuquerque Metro area, with
  the highest amounts expected on the west side of Albuquerque.
  Between 12 and 20 inches of snow is expected across the Sandia
  and Manzano Mountains, with locally higher amounts possible.

 

[raindancewx]

Maybe for the city itself. It's a weird forecast because when the winds hit 20-30 mph from the East here they sink from 7,000-8,000 at the I-40 pass level to 4,900 on the valley floor and they evaporate/destroys the snow (or rain sometimes). The winds are gradually circling around to the East, if you look at the five minute observations, but they're still only 5-10 mph so far and out of the south. Since it is below 32F and this event has some real moisture with it, would say it's already too late to be a complete bust.  The question to me is whether the East winds come in at Midnight, 2 am, 4 am or 6 am, and how strong? 

There is an old rule that says (AMA + COS pressure in MB) - (ABQ pressure in MB)*2 is a good indicator of an East Wind event. A score over 10 is a real East Wind. When I did the math at 9 pm, the score was only 13. Supposedly the sustained wind will be roughly the score, but in MPH. That's why I think it might be over done. This is what I had for 9 pm - the rule uses theoretical sea level pressure.

9 pm

1015 + 1018 = 33  (AMA + COS)

1010 + 1010 = 20  (ABQ + ABQ)

EW Score: 13

[Voyager]

So my plan to drop down to I-10 to avoid the snow might just be a fail. The cold air made it much farther south, and now the NWS is predicting 1-4 inches along the whole I-10 corridor from Sierra Blanca to Lordsburg.

[raindancewx]

On 12/25/2018 at 8:37 PM, raindancewx said:

I-40 is often closed in sufficiently heavy snows - keep that in mind. Same for all the other highways in NM. I-10 snow storms are not unheard of either, sometimes storms will sag south of their projected tracks at the last second out here. The casinos do have services for truckers, and we have lots of truck stops. I've been warning my casino that we accommodate some weary travelers later in the week.

The cold right now is pretty extraordinary for New Mexico. 31F at 1 am, but in practice under 25F for 90% of the day here. That's why it's been snowing even down to I-10, and it looked like even Mexico was getting snow earlier by the AZ/NM/MX border.

[Chinook]

Accumulating snow should be expected for Denver on Monday morning. The GFS has 0.49" of QPF in 24 hours. The NAM and Euro have less QPF. This may be a pretty cold day with light upslope snow for 8 hours. So keep your eye on it if you are in Denver.

[raindancewx]

This is still a bit out, and will depend to some extent on any new snow we get, but the average high here for Jan 1-5 looks like it has a shot at being the second coldest in 100 years. Has to be one of the coldest five day forecasts in the last 100 years for the city.

I'd also like to point out that July-December 1969 has been an excellent analog for precipitation and temperatures here, so seeing January 1970 in 8th place (33.0F) is fascinating. Also, the 1974-75 July-Dec period, which is probably the closest match at this point, has been dead on for precipitation, and sure enough January 1975 is in second place. I'm not sure why all these years in the 1970s are showing up.

[Chinook]

Winter weather advisory for Boulder County/ Denver metro. NWS forecasts show 3-5" of snow for Denver metro (0.2" of QPF)

Quote

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches
  expected.
* WHERE...The Northern Front Range Foothills, The Southern Front
  Range Foothills, Boulder and the western suburbs of Denver,
  Denver and Castle Rock.
* WHEN...From 5 AM to 5 PM MST Monday.

 

[Chinook]

Albuquerque official snow total was 3.0" over 3 recent days. Yesterday was a high of 29 and a low of 11, which is pretty cold even for northern states.

winter storm watch for new mexico

Quote

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 12
  inches possible in the lower elevations and 10 to 18 inches in
  the higher elevations. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph across
  most of the area and to up to 50 mph in the Albuquerque Metro
  area.
* WHERE...Portions of New Mexico.

meanwhile, this was the COCORAHS 24-hr snowfall map for just ONE of the snowy days in Albuquerque

[raindancewx]

In El Nino years, Albuquerque (officially) will typically see one one month with around 7 inches of snow. Since the next storm probably won't really bring any snow here until 1/1, December is pretty unlikely (23/27 El Ninos since 1931) to be the snowiest month here. That's kind of unusual. The top snow month here seems AMO driven in El Nino years. AMO years over +0.1 from Nov-Apr will almost always see Dec as snowiest. AMO years below -0.1 in Nov-Apr will almost always see Jan as snowiest. In between...March usually wins. It is hard to tell with the ESRL mapping stuff down, but an AMO between -0.1 and +0.1 seems pretty likely for Nov-Apr since Nov was -0.121, coldest since 1996, but Dec looks warmer.

1969-70 and 1974-75 were both very snowy in the SW in March...and they match the precipitation pattern for July-Dec 2018 well, two of the three closest matches in the last 100 years, along with 1998-99 which like 1974 is a La Nina...but had a wet/snowy March. Both 1974 and 1969 had unusual linkages with the SOI, with big opposite sign SOI values to the ENSO state in December/January. Both had extremely cold highs Jan 1-5 in Albuquerque, ~33F 1/1-1/5 in 1970, and ~30F 1/1-1/15 in 1975.

Back to 1931, and also back to 1892 with the scattered data available, 1974-75 is the ONLY year with over 3 inches of snow in March a July-June with under 55 sunspots, out of 30+ tries, so that has my attention too. Pretty sure March 1975 is also the wettest March in Albuquerque in a year with under 50 sunspots. I also couldn't find any Decembers with over 3.5" snow here when the Dec SOI is over 8 - and it is going to be around 9.5 this month. So that rule should hold (barely) this year. Sometimes it seems like the biggest warm ups (winter - previous winter) in Nino 3.4 are the most severe winters here if the prior winter was cold, and 1974-75 did warm up 1.3C from the much stronger La Nina of 1973-74.

If the average high of 29F or so verifies for 1/1-1/5, we'll be at a high of 44.7F for 12/1-1/5, which is pretty cold (-3F?) for us. My 2-3 inches of snow is still around after falling by 11 pm on 12/27. It's hard to imagine January being a warm month here if the 1/1-1/5 high does verify at 29F-31F or so. First ten days of the month would probably be 37F or something?

 

[mayjawintastawm]

A day of dust added up to about an inch and a half of snow here. Cold but otherwise underwhelming. Heaviest I've seen reported is about 2 inches. Wowee!

Looks like Denver will have 0.05" at most of precip in Dec (probably more like 0.03"), and the 7th or 8th driest year in over 140 of recordkeeping (yes I know the station moved twice).

 

[Chinook]

Dusting of snow here. Lawns look mostly brown still, streets looked kind of white. The temps have fallen to single digits in the metro areas. Wind chills are -10 on the windy plains. I think Pueblo got more snow today, but I am not sure.

[snowfan789]

5 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

A day of dust added up to about an inch and a half of snow here. Cold but otherwise underwhelming. Heaviest I've seen reported is about 2 inches. Wowee!

Looks like Denver will have 0.05" at most of precip in Dec (probably more like 0.03"), and the 7th or 8th driest year in over 140 of recordkeeping (yes I know the station moved twice).

 

Appear to have closer to 3” at about 5900’ in western Lakewood but, yeah, underwhelming for sure. Everywhere. Ugh. If I wanted to live in an arid climate, I would’ve settled elsewhere. The persistent dryness here is exasperating.

[raindancewx]

I went down to Ruidoso, NM earlier, and the place I went to do snow tubing (Alto, NM) had around 20 inches of snow the other day. Conditions were great. Lots of huge piles of snow around, fresh snow on the hills and mountains. Another winter storm warning here. This storm keeps slowing down and moving erratically. The path is different from the last one, so on a SE wind it finally seems to have cross 32F for the first time since 12/27 here a few minutes ago. The high was supposed to be in the mid 20s tomorrow, that looks like a bust if we stay in the mid 30s through midnight. The models had been showing winds slacking off eventually, maybe, later Tuesday, but if the temps are closer to 30 the amounts the NWS has (5-10") won't verify in the city given relatively low precip totals at high temps and the current high winds.

..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST
TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations generally
  ranging from 5 to 10 inches for elevations below 7500 feet with
  higher amounts of 7 to 15 inches above 7500 feet. Locally higher
  amounts near 2 feet will be possible in the highest elevations
  above 10000 feet. Portions of the middle Rio Grande valley will
  be shadowed, and could receive much less snow ranging from 1 to
  3 inches. East canyon winds will gust as high as 40 to 50 mph
  in parts of the Rio Grande valley.

[finnster]

On ‎12‎/‎31‎/‎2018 at 5:44 PM, mayjawintastawm said:

A day of dust added up to about an inch and a half of snow here. Cold but otherwise underwhelming. Heaviest I've seen reported is about 2 inches. Wowee!

Looks like Denver will have 0.05" at most of precip in Dec (probably more like 0.03"), and the 7th or 8th driest year in over 140 of recordkeeping (yes I know the station moved twice).

 

Yes, this end of year "storm" was very underwhelming for most of the front range.  I just saw the official precip numbers for Dec. for Denver and Fort Collins and both came in at .03".  Denver recorded less than an inch of snow.  This puts Dec 2018 tied for the 4th driest Dec in Denver's recorded history - and for Fort Collins probably in the top 10 driest Decembers.  IMHO, December was a fitting end to one of my least favorite years of weather on the front range, in the 55 years I've been here.  Other years on that list are 1976, 2002, 2012.  All had in common very little snow, heat/drought, plenty of forest fires, and lots of wind.

I'm trying to stay hopeful and patient that 2019 will bring better weather patterns, or at least a sign that things will start to change for the better.  Having said that, the outlook for the first part of January is not encouraging for the front range - sunny, mild, and dry.  I guess if it isn't going to snow it may as well be mild and sunny....

[raindancewx]

Did you all see that Tuscon had snow the other day? Not real common. They got 0.4" of the white stuff when it was 33F - heavy, wet snow. More than Boston has had officially.

We're up to 5.3" officially in Albuquerque. It's pretty rare to get >=3" in Dec and >=3" in Jan here, we'll see if that rule holds up this year, with Dec at 3.3" and Jan already at 2.0". Neither month is currently high enough to make me think we're mostly done with snow here. El Nino cold seasons tend to have around seven inches of snow in their top month, and 3.3" (23/27 times) is pretty unlikely to be our top snowfall month.

I've had snow on the ground for six full days now. Temps have not hit 32F at my house since 12/27. Airport has been above freezing for exactly 20 minutes since about 7:30 pm on 12/27.

[snowfan789]

5 hours ago, finnster said:

Yes, this end of year "storm" was very underwhelming for most of the front range.  I just saw the official precip numbers for Dec. for Denver and Fort Collins and both came in at .03".  Denver recorded less than an inch of snow.  This puts Dec 2018 tied for the 4th driest Dec in Denver's recorded history - and for Fort Collins probably in the top 10 driest Decembers.  IMHO, December was a fitting end to one of my least favorite years of weather on the front range, in the 55 years I've been here.  Other years on that list are 1976, 2002, 2012.  All had in common very little snow, heat/drought, plenty of forest fires, and lots of wind.

I'm trying to stay hopeful and patient that 2019 will bring better weather patterns, or at least a sign that things will start to change for the better.  Having said that, the outlook for the first part of January is not encouraging for the front range - sunny, mild, and dry.  I guess if it isn't going to snow it may as well be mild and sunny....

Things just have to change for the better eventually. I think. But, as previously discussed, and as illustrated recently by the NYE “event”, the lack of upslope here is so darn persistent.

[Chinook]

My place got 0.08" of water equivalent and 1.3" of snow in December.

We have had kind of a roller coaster of cold temperatures

12/30: high 48, low 18

12/31: high 35, low 6 (high of 35 after midnight, low 6 before the next midnight), 0.04" water equivalent, 0.4" of snow. I don't go outside and measure snow if it isn't over the tops of the grass. I feel like I wouldn't really report an accurate value to the NWS.

1/1: high 14, low 3

1/2: high 43, low 0

[finnster]

12 hours ago, snowfan789 said:

Things just have to change for the better eventually. I think. But, as previously discussed, and as illustrated recently by the NYE “event”, the lack of upslope here is so darn persistent.

Just have to stay hopeful that things will turn around.  I beginning to think it won’t be this winter though. Seem to be stuck in the same pattern although it’s been good for our friend in NM ;-).  Maybe spring will bring some beneficial storms to these parts.

[BlizzardWx]

We had a few small storms in SLC last week. Added up alright but most of it blew away in the downslope winds a few days back. Looks like 1-2" on Sunday. 

[Chinook]

Nebraska, North Dakota, New Hampshire, New York, New Jersey, North Carolina, and New Mexico have had above normal snow. It's an "N" winter.

[mayjawintastawm]

You forgot Narkansas and Narizona.

[raindancewx]

Today is the eighth day in a row snow has not melted from my property. I've only had 6 or 7 inches since 12/27. So...it's the cold that preserves it. The low of 7F this morning was the coldest low in the city since (officially) since the great cold wave of February 2011...when the HIGH was 9F, and the low was -7F.

The mountains are absolutely gorgeous. The high today was 33F. First time it has been over 32F for more than an hour in over a week. The Grand Canyon looked gorgeous in the snow the other day too. 

NM ski resorts are doing really well so far. Red River (8600 ft) has records from 1906-2014, and they average 135" or so, so 64" through early January is a strong result for them. Their top seasons are around 250 inches. My analogs had them at 82" through January 31 on their way to 160" by June 1, so they're actually beating the pace I had by 15% or so.

Arizona.

Ruidoso, NM