Mountain West Discussion

[BlizzardWx]

3.3" yesterday at my house. Probably some more towards the coming weekend. 

[raindancewx]

Still looking like we'll do the "big Oct", "nada/near nada Nov" thing here in the city for precipitation. Years with around two inches in Albuquerque in Oct and nothing in Nov are rare, only El Ninos with that reversal since 1930 are 1969, 2006, 2009. The El Nino is similar to 2006, and I think the MJO must be very similar to 1969 given Camille and Michael monstrosities in El Nino Falls aren't exactly common on the Gulf of Mexico. Color me optimistic for December in the Rockies and SW given how wet 1969 and 2006 were in December.

1969 is also one of the only years with a cold Oct-Nov here. It's pretty rare to get both cold here.

[Chinook]

Today's GFS model runs are showing another -Weekend- snow storm possibility for Denver. Overall, this does make sense with the GEFS mean trough over Nevada/Utah at this time period.  Today's 12z ECMWF is putting all the Pacific jet stream energy into one (deep) low pressure at Sioux Falls SD at this time frame. This particular ECMWF solution could change quite a bit though. Model runs have been changing a lot recently.

[snowfan789]

This upcoming pattern has snowy potential in the Front Range. So does December says the (unreliable) CFS today. This could easily change tomorrow of course.

[raindancewx]

I like how the MJO is setting up for the Rockies and SW in December. Phase two is very cold, and we should be passing through it at high amplitude in a week or so. MJO 1-4 for the first ten days of Dec is probably pretty cold in a lot of the West. Five isn't bad either, if we make it there. It seems like the biggest blizzards in this area are often around the 6-7 transition in late December....which is possible around 12/20 at this rate.

[Chinook]

Things seem to be trending away from any significant snow here. In the short range, (72 hrs) the storm system should give 6" up to even 24" for the western side of Colorado, with westerly upslope flow. Not much will be happening here in the plains, other than a bit of rain or snow. Colder air will move in here on Sunday and Monday.

One of these days, I will post a couple of maps regarding western snowpack values. Snowpack in the Pacific Northwest has been trending upward.

[mayjawintastawm]

You're not kidding. The triangle of meh from Cheyenne to El Paso to Austin, more or less, is the only boring weather place in the next week.

[ValpoVike]

That's no ordinary triangle of meh.

 

[BlizzardWx]

Looking at some snow here tomorrow night and again on Sunday. I'm thinking 2-4" for me tomorrow night and 1-4" for Sunday. 

[snowfan789]

My stated enthusiasm from a few days ago has been tempered. Why has it been so hard to get snow in the Front Range during the past few years? Seriously, why? We average about 55” a year and there has been good moisture nearby at times, like the adjacent mountains for much of the 2016-17 winter and also a decent chunk of this snow season so far.

[Chinook]

We haven't had an El Nino since 2015-2016. Last year was not all that great. The northern mountains were near 100% of normal snowfall, but everything south of RMNP was below 100% of normal snowfall.

 

 

 

And I've got an even worse answer for you. The whole southwestern section of the United States has been below normal precipitation for the 10 years preceding this year, and this year too.

 

[snowfan789]

Not encouraging. I wonder if the Southwest dryness is attributable in part to the northward shift of the jet (stemming at least in part from climate change) and in part a weaker summer monsoon overall (also climate change-related?)? On the other hand, Denver seems to have historically experienced fairly prolonged stretches of bad winters, then good winters, then back again, and so on. Not sure the past few bad years are necessarily indicative of a new trend.

[Chinook]

DIA has had dense fog since 7AM. I wonder if this is affecting a lot of traffic in the metro area. 

Note: snowfall of 12-16" is in the NWS official forecasts for South Dakota/Nebraska border

[raindancewx]

The 1950s were incredibly dry for the SW, I think we went 10-full years on a July-June basis without topping the 1951-2010 average for precipitation. It's not exactly 1950-1959, its something like the 10 years ending June 1957.

That being said, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17 all had average to high amounts of precipitation in Albuquerque (July-June). New Mexico was green and full of vibrant plant life in 2015. Albuquerque had 22 inches of snow that year, lots of areas had near record snow in calendar year 2015.

Truth is, we need either a lot of precipitation in a warm/mild cold season, or a cold cold-season with average precipitation to rebuild water supply and maintain snow pack. I'd call 2004, 2014, 2016 examples of the first pattern. You get a lot of precipitation, it melts quickly in Spring though. The ideal is something like 2006 where it is cold most of the cold season and persistently wetter than normal too. 

The Canadian did trend the entire West colder/wetter for winter on its latest run -

 

[snowfan789]

Very frustrating how Denver and most spots nearby outside the high mountains keep not getting snow.  All hope for at least next few weeks seems to have been lost. Meanwhile the mountains are doing well (thankfully), Cheyenne has had near normal snowfall https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=CLI&issuedby=CYS; Pueblo has had near normal snowfall https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=CLI&issuedby=PUBl; and Wichita is above normal. There must be a snow force field over us even though we are “due” statistically for an ok winter if not better, given the terrible preceding two years.

[finnster]

9 hours ago, snowfan789 said:

Very frustrating how Denver and most spots nearby outside the high mountains keep not getting snow.  All hope for at least next few weeks seems to have been lost. Meanwhile the mountains are doing well (thankfully), Cheyenne has had near normal snowfall https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=CLI&issuedby=CYS; Pueblo has had near normal snowfall https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=CLI&issuedby=PUBl; and Wichita is above normal. There must be a snow force field over us even though we are “due” statistically for an ok winter if not better, given the terrible preceding two years.

Snowfan I do feel your pain.  You've already received some good responses here.  As a long time resident and snow fan in northern CO I can share a few more thoughts.  Back in October I was feeling more optimistic about the front range getting at least an average snow season this year.  Now not so much.  The winter pattern seems to be getting established now and it has not been favorable for the front range - mainly wind and downsloping now for the past several weeks and that looks to continue.  Thankfully the mountains are off to a pretty good start.

You are right the past two years were very poor snow years for the front range - for Denver in particular.  Their totals the past two seasons were well below 30" which is historically low - you have to go way back in the records to see anything that low.  Now we're in December and denver is at about 50% of average so it seems to happening again this season (Fort Collins is fairing a bit better).  One thing I have noticed increasingly is the lack of strong upslope storms that benefit the front range in particular.  We just don't see those very often and that's where the front range gets its snow. 

With a developing El Nino this year I thought we would have seen some decent fall storms for the front range - but those have not materialized.  I know winter hasn't even arrived officially, but it seems the front range doesn't do well historically with El Nino in the core winter months.  We can however get some big storms in the spring months with El Nino and that's what I'm looking toward....

[raindancewx]

December does look pretty warm for most of the US to me. The subsurface heat content in 100W-180W for Aug-Oct matched well to 1991, 1991, 2002, 2002, 2002, and then that verified for temps (the big -SOI in Sept is usually cold for TX and the middle of the US in Nov too). 2002, 2002, 1986, 1986, 2006 was also a good blend for November using Aug, Sept, Oct. I don't actually expect the ASO subsurface match to hold for winter, or the SON subsurface match to hold for winter, just added that for reference.

Subsurface	August	Sept	October
2002	1.05	1.41	1.72
2002	1.05	1.41	1.72
2002	1.05	1.41	1.72
1991	0.49	0.6	1.41
1991	0.49	0.6	1.41
Mean	0.83	1.09	1.60
2018	0.81	1.12	1.59

December top matches were very difficult for me to re-create since 2006 is an almost perfect match to the subsurface in both Sept and Nov, but terrible for Oct. The "look" nationally is like 2006, but I didn't use it. A lot of these years are pretty wet in the SW in December. Not so much for CO though. This blend, if you live in CO, is not great for winter. But it is very wet in the South. Very warm in the Northern Plains down to about CO, and the near average for the immediate East Coast and South were it to hold (but I don't think it will)

[snowfan789]

On 12/1/2018 at 9:26 AM, finnster said:

Snowfan I do feel your pain.  You've already received some good responses here.  As a long time resident and snow fan in northern CO I can share a few more thoughts.  Back in October I was feeling more optimistic about the front range getting at least an average snow season this year.  Now not so much.  The winter pattern seems to be getting established now and it has not been favorable for the front range - mainly wind and downsloping now for the past several weeks and that looks to continue.  Thankfully the mountains are off to a pretty good start.

You are right the past two years were very poor snow years for the front range - for Denver in particular.  Their totals the past two seasons were well below 30" which is historically low - you have to go way back in the records to see anything that low.  Now we're in December and denver is at about 50% of average so it seems to happening again this season (Fort Collins is fairing a bit better).  One thing I have noticed increasingly is the lack of strong upslope storms that benefit the front range in particular.  We just don't see those very often and that's where the front range gets its snow. 

With a developing El Nino this year I thought we would have seen some decent fall storms for the front range - but those have not materialized.  I know winter hasn't even arrived officially, but it seems the front range doesn't do well historically with El Nino in the core winter months.  We can however get some big storms in the spring months with El Nino and that's what I'm looking toward....

Thanks, Finnster. Your contributions here and elsewhere are appreciated. I do think the above average snowpack in the mountains so far is worth stressing — and being thankful for. That’s hugely important and we’ve got that — so far. Snow lower down would be nice too, though. I am selfishly- speaking sick of these east coast storms again and again, year after year, while we remain dry dry dry.

[snowfan789]

On 12/1/2018 at 12:48 PM, raindancewx said:

December does look pretty warm for most of the US to me. The subsurface heat content in 100W-180W for Aug-Oct matched well to 1991, 1991, 2002, 2002, 2002, and then that verified for temps (the big -SOI in Sept is usually cold for TX and the middle of the US in Nov too). 2002, 2002, 1986, 1986, 2006 was also a good blend for November using Aug, Sept, Oct. I don't actually expect the ASO subsurface match to hold for winter, or the SON subsurface match to hold for winter, just added that for reference.

Subsurface	August	Sept	October
2002	1.05	1.41	1.72
2002	1.05	1.41	1.72
2002	1.05	1.41	1.72
1991	0.49	0.6	1.41
1991	0.49	0.6	1.41
Mean	0.83	1.09	1.60
2018	0.81	1.12	1.59

December top matches were very difficult for me to re-create since 2006 is an almost perfect match to the subsurface in both Sept and Nov, but terrible for Oct. The "look" nationally is like 2006, but I didn't use it. A lot of these years are pretty wet in the SW in December. Not so much for CO though. This blend, if you live in CO, is not great for winter. But it is very wet in the South. Very warm in the Northern Plains down to about CO, and the near average for the immediate East Coast and South were it to hold (but I don't think it will)

I don’t mean to be a troll but feel that I  must ask, how’d your November 2018 forecast turn out? I remember you calling for a relatively good stretch of winter-like weather in the CO Front Range. How’d your winter forecast last year turn out? I recall you calling for a mostly cold winter in the Great Basin region. Your contributions are appreciated but if you’re going to make forecasts then it only seems fair to report back on their accuracy so that readers can evaluate the credibility of later forecasts. 

Yes I am not happy to read a discouraging outlook from you for at least some of CO for December but the point and questions stand.

[Chinook]

GFS Ensembles/ECMWF ensembles really show above-average temps in Canada from day 5-day 10. We may have a hard time getting arctic air for storms in the Plains/Midwest for quite a number of days, in that period (Dec 7-12)

[finnster]

11 hours ago, Chinook said:

GFS Ensembles/ECMWF ensembles really show above-average temps in Canada from day 5-day 10. We may have a hard time getting arctic air for storms in the Plains/Midwest for quite a number of days, in that period (Dec 7-12)

Thanks Chinook.  I don't care so much about the plains/midwest getting cold air for snow storms as I do the central Rockies and front range.  Unfortunately, the trend you point out will likely also affect our neck of the woods.  If it's not going to snow here it might as well be pleasantly mild - cold with no snow is not that fun, IMHO.

[finnster]

12 hours ago, snowfan789 said:

Thanks, Finnster. Your contributions here and elsewhere are appreciated. I do think the above average snowpack in the mountains so far is worth stressing — and being thankful for. That’s hugely important and we’ve got that — so far. Snow lower down would be nice too, though. I am selfishly- speaking sick of these east coast storms again and again, year after year, while we remain dry dry dry.

Snofan you're quite welcome, and you're absolutely right we must be thankful for the early strong snow pack in the Colorado mountains.  These are just tough times for winter weather fans on the front range.  I don't know how else to put it the weather in this region is just consistently boring and has been for quite some time.  Beyond being boring, there are truly serious implications for water (or lack thereof) and for those who farm the high plains. The last truly big winter storm in the Fort Collins was 12 years ago, December 2006.  Should never say never, but I'm feeling we won't see anything approaching that again. As I said before the big, slow-moving upslope winter storms seem to be a thing of the past.  Why? Who knows....

I do know one thing: a watched pot never boils, as they say.  Personally, I'm making weather sites, forums, models off limits for a while.  It used to be fun but more and more just leads to frustration and disappointment.  I'll remain hopeful that at some point this winter we front-rangers will actually see a good storm (6" or more would be dandy).  If/when that happens you'll probably see me on this forum and jumping for joy  

[raindancewx]

20 hours ago, snowfan789 said:

I don’t mean to be a troll but feel that I  must ask, how’d your November 2018 forecast turn out? I remember you calling for a relatively good stretch of winter-like weather in the CO Front Range. How’d your winter forecast last year turn out? I recall you calling for a mostly cold winter in the Great Basin region. Your contributions are appreciated but if you’re going to make forecasts then it only seems fair to report back on their accuracy so that readers can evaluate the credibility of later forecasts. 

Yes I am not happy to read a discouraging outlook from you for at least some of CO for December but the point and questions stand.

I don't really do monthly outlooks for snow, and I didn't really do a Fall outlook this year, but I did have 1986 as an analog in my forecast for winter, and November looked pretty similar to 1986. I had 1953, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006 as the winter blend, and those years had a warm West Coast with the rest of the country mild to slightly cold. Those weren't really intended for Fall, but with 1986 in there, it was a warmer version of the right idea anyway.

[BlizzardWx]

Decent snowstorm over SLC last weekend. Some places were over a foot with lake effect. I had 5.4". Another 1/3" this morning. 

Looks be drying out for a while with inversions and fog setting up the next few days. 

[Chinook]

Snow % of normal now and roughly 25 days ago

 

[raindancewx]

If the SOI stays positive in December like it has been, I could see the NW doing well for snowfall in February or March, which would be unusual in an El Nino. Big question if it will stay positive though. It warmed up here today, but even so, my highs are running around 6F below the 1931-2017 mean for 12/1-12/6. I find that if a cold or warm spell lasts from 12/1-12/8 in an El Nino, it tends to hold up much stronger than in the other ENSO patterns through December, the r-squared is 2-3x stronger. This is a long way of saying, it still looks cold to me here for December, at least for the highs.

December is always tricky here, because long-term, at least for 1931-2017, the highs are actually down, not up. Lows are up of course.

Also, if we verify with highs around 50F for 12/7 to 12/8 highs, we're running basically identical to 2006 here for highs, at around 46.5F (-4.5F). 

[Chinook]

My area had some snow yesterday, Fort Collins and Loveland got roughly 1" of snow, with a high of about 24. I almost slipped on the ice, late in the day. Today there are very clear skies, and I could see Long's Peak and the Mummy Range with only a bit of clouds over the mountaintops. In about 6 days, there is a possibility of a more northerly shortwave/ cold front and snow for Colorado. Right now, it's certainly not obvious that it will snow at low elevations. The vorticity plot looks pretty darn cool, though.

 

[BlizzardWx]

Next storm will likely be Wednesday here. Not looking huge but a few inches are possible. 

[raindancewx]

My statistical regression for Albuquerque El Nino highs seems to be working - I developed it after the 2015-16 El Nino to figure out why some El Ninos are cold here and others are not. You input numbers and it spits out a Tmax for DJF that should be right, +/-1.8F for the winter. I try to mimic Tmax in Oct-Nov locally, with the background state, and then roll it forward to get the winter. That's the theory, basically many combinations are close matches to the background initial conditions, but only one or a few will match the background state and the local weather. 

I can't imagine it will continue this well, but the regression was based on El Ninos for 1931-2017 and then I tested it on the earlier El Ninos in 1892-1930, and it still worked in non-volcanic years. So far, 1976, 1986, 1986, 2009 as a blend has been nearly perfect for highs here for months now. Green numbers are what I expect for ONI (DJF SST in Nino 3.4), Sun is Jul-Jun annualized sunspots, ONIp is ONI but for last year (previous). The green numbers under the Oct, Nov, Dec 1-10 highs are actual numbers v. the regression blend. Average high here is 71.3F in Oct, 57.4F for November, and 47.8F for December for 1931-2017. Other blends can be made, some warmer, some colder, but for whatever reason, this one works best. 

[Chinook]

Mount Baker National Forest in Washington has up to 88" in its point & click weather forecast, for just 5 days.