Chinook Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 Snow has continued steadily. I may get 5" within the next hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 we are still getting some decent reflectivity along and south of Loveland. Here is a radar image from earlier-- there might be a lot of spotters near here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 A hint of the sun, reflecting off the snow on top of somebody else's car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Looking forward to seeing if we can get snow in the city Monday morning. The NAM and GFS both have a dusting but I'm not sure I buy it. I think flurries to an inch is pretty safe. It is amazing how cold a normal/cold November feels after November 2017, when it was 73F here as late as 11/17, and the average high was 65.4F, with only two frosts for the whole month. For all of Oct-May last year our coldest high was 37F, and we may beat that tomorrow, well before the core of our winter even arrives. Most of the things I'm seeing imply some kind of huge (for Albuquerque) snow dump at some point in the winter. Will be interesting to see if that verifies by April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finnster Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 21 hours ago, Chinook said: we are still getting some decent reflectivity along and south of Loveland. Here is a radar image from earlier-- there might be a lot of spotters near here FYI - this is an 'unofficial' measurement but yesterday (Sunday) morning I measured 8" of snow at our place at about 6000 ft. southwest of Bellvue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finnster Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 On 11/10/2018 at 9:45 AM, raindancewx said: The only year on record with snow in Albuquerque on 11/12 is...wait for it.... 1972 Most severe winter in the SW in like 100 years. I'm showing my age now, but I remember the 1972-73 winter in Colorado pretty well (even just getting out of high school I followed weather patterns closely). Starting later in fall 1972 there were a series of storms that formed in the southwest, and tracked northeastward hitting the central Rockies and then out into the plains/midwest. One after another. That snow season Denver recorded about 95" of snow, followed up with about 92" in 1973-74. Can you imagine what that amount of snow would do to Denver (and front range area) now with the greatly increased population and traffic? You would probably see some folks packing up and moving to warmer climes . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 2 hours ago, finnster said: You would probably see some folks packing up and moving to warmer climes . That would be fine with me. Driving yesterday and this morning was almost hilarious with people going way too fast then crashing into everything. A good 4" at my house, hard to tell because of melting midday yesterday. Most of the snow came after sunset last night. I think we do better on N flow at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I don't think this Fall pattern will last for Winter, and it does look somewhat like what my Winter analogs had for Fall, but its kind of impressive how the cold keeps failing to reach the East Coast or West Coast for any length of time despite its severity in the middle of North America. I've kind of given up on El Nino SSTs as any kind of meaningful indicator for US winter temperatures. For the NW and SE, the PDO is a much stronger temperature indicator, and for the NE it is the Modoki structure/AMO/NAO/PDO as a blend. For the SW, the best indicator in El Ninos honestly seems to be the SSTs in Nino 3.4 in the prior winter. On that account, I'm pretty optimistic as Nino 3.4 was 25.72C in Winter 2017-18, comparable to the winters that preceded the 2006, 2009, 1963, 1965 and 1968 El Ninos all of which were fairly cold and / or stormy. Nino 3.4 SSTs just don't matter that much for temps - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 PDO Index values for 2018 January 0.70 February 0.37 March -0.05 April 0.11 May 0.11 June -0.04 July 0.11 August 0.18 September 0.09 October 0.26 Nate El Ninos with similar PDO values in October (-0.24 to +0.76) include 1958, 1972, 1982, 1991, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009. Pretty mixed bag there. My analog blend of 1953, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006 had a PDO value of -0.28 for October, so I'm fairly happy with it. 1972, 2004, 2006 are huge winters for moisture in the SW for what it is worth, with 1958/1982 pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 GFS, other models, showing another weekend snow for Fort Collins, Estes Park, and Cheyenne. As of yesterday's model runs, this storm didn't look like much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 How are you all doing up there for snow as a % of normal so far? It's been pretty good here to date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Pretty well! SW Colorado is still lagging a bit (84% of normal) and they are the ones hardest hit by the drought, though they also are the area most favored to do well generally this winter. The whole Front Range is doing great, around 150% of normal to date. So we wait and see. Need to get into shape for ski season so I don't auto-dismember on my first run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 Colorado and Wyoming seem to be the only states that are accumulating snow in the mountains, of much importance. And that will continue with winter storm watch/ winter storm warning now in effect for southeast Wyoming for Friday/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Very quiet here lately. Cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 We have a large lenticular wave cloud, much larger than the UFO-shaped little clouds. It is keeping temperatures down from Loveland to Colorado Springs. With 57 in Cheyenne, it should be something like 67 in Fort Collins and Denver, but it isn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 17, 2018 Author Share Posted November 17, 2018 The lenticulars broke up into smaller clouds. I got this nice pic at sunset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 We've had nothing but flurries for precipitation here since 11/1. A big October with a dry November is actually pretty rare here...but it did happen in 2006, which was an El Nino and had the similarly neutral PDO value for Oct. The SOI crash the last few days does make me think we may get a good storm by the end of the month. These are the years locally with around 2.00" in Oct, and then around 0.00" in Nov. All of those years have a lot of snow late, and 1959/2006 are both around 20-24" in December for snow. 1959 1969 1985 2006 2009 2011 This the composite of 1.5-2.5" in Oct, and then 0-0.2" in Nov. 1969 had Camille and a cold Fall here, 2011 had early snows in the NE, so the blend is interesting. ABQ Snow Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Total 1959 0.0 0.0 23.7 1.8 0.8 2.8 0.0 0.0 29.1 1969 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 2.7 3.3 0.0 0.0 7.1 1985 0.0 0.7 0.9 2.9 10.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 15.1 2006 0.0 0.2 20.8 2.2 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.9 2009 0.8 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 4.2 2011 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.5 1.9 1.9 1.4 0.0 8.5 Mean 0.1 0.2 8.3 1.4 3.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 15.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 17, 2018 Author Share Posted November 17, 2018 My area has had some freezing drizzle of 0.01" or 0.02" and maybe 1/2" of snow. The grass is not quite covered. Not as pretty as last Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Just fell on the black ice from our 0.03" or so and temp of 24. Thought I left that behind when we moved here. Be careful Front Range folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan789 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 4 hours ago, raindancewx said: We've had nothing but flurries for precipitation here since 11/1. A big October with a dry November is actually pretty rare here...but it did happen in 2006, which was an El Nino and had the similarly neutral PDO value for Oct. The SOI crash the last few days does make me think we may get a good storm by the end of the month. These are the years locally with around 2.00" in Oct, and then around 0.00" in Nov. All of those years have a lot of snow late, and 1959/2006 are both around 20-24" in December for snow. 1959 1969 1985 2006 2009 2011 This the composite of 1.5-2.5" in Oct, and then 0-0.2" in Nov. 1969 had Camille and a cold Fall here, 2011 had early snows in the NE, so the blend is interesting. ABQ Snow Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Total 1959 0.0 0.0 23.7 1.8 0.8 2.8 0.0 0.0 29.1 1969 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 2.7 3.3 0.0 0.0 7.1 1985 0.0 0.7 0.9 2.9 10.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 15.1 2006 0.0 0.2 20.8 2.2 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.9 2009 0.8 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 4.2 2011 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.5 1.9 1.9 1.4 0.0 8.5 Mean 0.1 0.2 8.3 1.4 3.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 15.3 Think there’s a chance of a December 2006-type pattern repeating itself next month in the Southwest and Front Range of Colorado? Still hard to know what to realistically hope for and expect this winter around Denver when different frequently-cited analogs had such different winters, in terms of snowfall, in the Front Range urban corridor. More generally, hard to know what to hope for as a snow-lover living in the Front Range when it comes to various indices, e.g., PNA, PDO, NAO, AMO, etc. This was way more clear-cut when I used to live in New England (e.g., a negative NAO and positive PNA generally = good for snow and cold). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 My pet theory for CO generally is that the best seasons are just...everything near Neutral. So, the AMO, PDO, ENSO, solar activity, etc. Because if the air masses are too cold, we get the storms down here. Or Mexico does. If the Atlantic is too cold, the fronts banked up against the front range don't have a lot of Gulf of Mexico moisture to ring out. If the PDO is too positive, the cold air runs straight to the SE, and the SW tends to be wet. If the PDO is too negative, not enough cold air at times. If the AMO is too positive, the storms can miss to the north. Too negative, and you'll see a year like April 1976 or 1983 when it snowed heavily in El Paso. Without looking, it seems like 2014 was better than 2015, and more Neutral, 2016 was kind of amazing actually for the mountains with almost a blend of a Peru El Nino and a Modoki La Nina, certainly better than the much colder 2017-18 La Nina. I'm pretty sure 2009-10 was worse than 2004-05 and 2006-07 for the mountains out here, and I'd imagine the same is true for CO, even though it was cold in 2009-10. All that being said, 1972-73 is probably the best winter out here in the last 100 years, regionally, for cold/snow/precip persistence and intensity, and that was a major El Nino. For Albuquerque, the regression I built for El Nino temps is working so far - the idea being that El Nino (SSTs in Nino 3.4 in Dec-Feb) after La Nina (SSTs in Nino 3.4 in the prior Dec-Feb) with low solar is the best combination for getting cold. Since the El Nino formed it has been very cold here, and we have low-solar and the La Nina last year was fairly strong. It's amazing looking at the data - 13 warm monthly highs in a row Sept 2017 to Sept 2018, and now Oct 2018 - cold, and Nov 2018 - 65/35 that it will finish below the 100-year mean high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 Stronger El Ninos directly correlate to the biggest snowstorms in Denver's history, or at least most of them. This is a tweet highlights the seasonal totals instead of individual events. 2002-2003 isn't even on here, but that weak-moderate El Nino winter had an epic storm here-- the cutoff low pulled in southern stream moisture and it's highly related to El Nino. Now, as for the whole, northwest Colorado does less well with El Nino, southern Colorado does better with El Nino. So for the state in general, we are at sort of a dividing line with temps/precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 This is the easy way to look at it - if you're just talking snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan789 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 For virtually all of NM and the Front Range of CO, El Niño pretty clearly appears to be good for snow, though it is no guarantee, of course. For the CO mountains, it is more complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 This isn't a hard and fast rule, but for 1951-2010, the average high in Albuquerque in winter (Dec-Feb) is ~49.5F. When the prior winter in Nino 3.4 is above 26.5C, there is virtually no chance historically of a winter below 47.5F. Doesn't really work the other way as well. 10/36 winters are cold when Nino 3.4 was below 26.5C the prior winter, only 2/32 are if it is above 26.5C - 26.5C is the 60-year mean in Nino 3.4 for DJF. There is something of a cold cluster for winters here when the prior winter was 25.5-26.0C in Nino 3.4 - I think because much colder than that and its very hard to warm into an El Nino the following year....and of course last winter was 25.72C in Dec-Feb. This rule applies generally to the SW at weak levels by the way - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 19, 2018 Author Share Posted November 19, 2018 GOES-17 has been moved to its western orbit at 137.2 deg W longitude. Quote from NOAA: Quote Once it becomes NOAA’s operational GOES West satellite on December 10, 2018, GOES-17 will significantly enhance our ability to forecast the weather in the western United States, especially in Alaska and Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 West Coast areas and intermountain West areas will get a major boost in rainfall and snowpack in the next 1-2 weeks. Even the 1-week QPF from the NWS/WPC is looking very wet for the Pac NW and northwest California. Currently snowpack is very low outside of CO, WY, and MT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 GOES-17 preliminary non-operational West Coast views https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES17.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 My area has finally gotten some snowflakes now, with wind gusts of 25mph up to even 50mph at the airport. Some snow developed in Wyoming, and it moved southwards. Right now, Cheyenne has heavy snow and 51mph wind gusts. CYS weather office issued a "snow squall warning," one of the new types of warnings that can be issued. Most of yesterday was windy and sunny, about 52, with wind gusts up to about 45mph. Today was cloudy, with temps in the 40's and wind gusts of 25mph+ during the daytime. an eagle's talon -- 21:30z (2:30PM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Don't look now, but we've gone from a high of 60 to blizzard conditions for the past hour (1.5" snow, plenty of gusts to around 50 mph with sustained 25-30, visibility <1/4 mile). I imagine it will end soon but what a surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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