Mountain West Discussion

[Chinook]

Rain has been changing over to snow in the past 3 hrs. We are already getting 40mph wind gusts here

[donsutherland1]

Mesoscale Discussion 0194
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1127 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

   Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...Northeast Colorado...the
   Nebraska panhandle...and far southwest South Dakota

   Concerning...Blizzard 

   Valid 131627Z - 131930Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow is expected through the afternoon with snowfall
   rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. In areas where it is currently
   raining, a transition to snow is expected within the next 2 hours.
   Blizzard conditions are expected across this entire region by early
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A rapidly deepening surface low with a minimum pressure
   around 971 mb is currently located in southeast Colorado. This
   surface cyclone is likely near peak intensity as current water vapor
   analysis suggests the system has become mostly vertically stacked
   and occlusion will likely begin soon. This is supported by a
   relative stall in surface pressure falls in southeast Colorado
   between 15Z and 16Z after several hours of 2 to 3 mb per hour falls.
   Rapidly falling heights have quickly cooled the column and
   transitioned rain to snow across much of the Front Range with
   moderate to heavy snow. There are still a few locations which are
   still observing rain, but these locations should transition to snow
   in the next few hours. In addition, snowfall rates have rapidly
   increased over the last 2 hours as dCVA, frontogenesis, and
   isentropic ascent have maximized across this region. As mid-level
   temperatures continue to rapidly cool, thermal profiles will support
   occasional convective elements with thundersnow potential across
   much of this region.  

   In addition to the increasing snowfall rates, sustained surface
   northerly winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph are present
   across most of this area. Current surface temperatures near freezing
   are likely limiting significant additional visibility reduction due
   to blowing snow, but this will change quickly in the next few hours
   as temperatures continue to fall. By early afternoon, most of this
   region will likely be observing blizzard conditions with
   visibilities less than a tenth of a mile in many locations.

   ..Bentley.. 03/13/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39180521 39790581 40520606 41170618 42270614 42990581
               43430522 43550407 43470328 43080173 42300169 41230221
               40270282 39030329 38590359 38380429 38650500 39180521 

[Chinook]

Hurricane force wind gust at Denver International Airport, with less than 1/4 mile visibility in snow. This higher than I thought would happen (65 knots = 75 mph)

KDEN 131700Z 34044G65KT M1/4SM R35L/1600V2200FT SN BLSN VV006 M01/M01 A2902 RMK AO2 PK WND 34061/1654 TWR VIS 1 PRESRR P0000 T10111011 $

[purduewx80]

16 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Hurricane force wind gust at Denver International Airport, with less than 1/4 mile visibility in snow. This higher than I thought would happen (65 knots = 75 mph)

KDEN 131700Z 34044G65KT M1/4SM R35L/1600V2200FT SN BLSN VV006 M01/M01 A2902 RMK AO2 PK WND 34061/1654 TWR VIS 1 PRESRR P0000 T10111011 $

a SPECI just came out w/ a peak of 69KT! KDEN 131735Z 33045G64KT 1/4SM R35L/1600V2000FT SN BLSN VV005 M02/M02 A2905 RMK AO2 PK WND 34069/1712 TWR VIS 1 P0000 T10171022 $

[donsutherland1]

Transition from rain to blizzard at Denver (next hour should make the blizzard official):

[Chinook]

Coors Field. Good thing baseball doesn't start on March 13th. Note: there are skyscrapers in the background.

[Chinook]

"Well, there’s nothing dirtier than a giant ball of oil"  --  G. Costanza

 

 

[donsutherland1]

From the NWS at Cheyenne:

At 2:04 PM MDT, 5 E Hemingford [Box Butte Co, NE] MESONET reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M89 MPH. MESONET STATION NE023, 5 E HEMINGFORD NE - HEMINGFORD HWY 385 (HMG).

[mayjawintastawm]

And COS had a 97 MPH gust earlier this afternoon. We have (about, variable) 8 inches on the ground now of paste.

A co-worker's house near Parker had a tree fall on it, creating a new bedroom skylight  but without the window part. Not fun.

[raindancewx]

Derecho in TX too. This storm is probably important enough / powerful enough that it deserves some kind of name. I'm going with "Hurricane Kansas" until I see something better. It's not really just a blizzard, severe outbreak, flood, or wind storm, it's all that and more.

I-25 was closed north of Wagon Mound today since the wind was knocking big trucks off the road.

There were some 100 mph wind gusts in Southern NM earlier. Literally "more powerful than a locomotive".

Snow-pack numbers should be up more tomorrow after the heavy snows today.

 

[Chinook]

The wind blasted the snow into a crust on sidewalks and it packed the snow into dense snow on the grass.  We have some drifts of 1 ft, but the snow is 1" on the grass. I am not sure if I can make a snow report to the NWS in a scientific fashion. Like many times in the Dakotas, "snow was hard to measure" is the name of the game today.

[Chinook]

My area had some decent blizzard METARs with wind gusts to the mid 40's in knots. It's probably the best wind I've seen with snow in a while, maybe in all my life. I drove through a ground blizzard in Nebraska in 2010 and I was in the Fort Collins blizzard of 2006, which also had winds over 35mph.

KFNL 131856Z AUTO 34036G45KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG BKN010 OVC015 M02/M03 A2928 RMK AO2 PK WND 33046/1825 CIG 006V013 SLP913 P0000 T10221028 FZRANO

[raindancewx]

This caught my attention earlier, as late March 1973, after the storm depicted, had incredible storms in the SW, including the all-time record March snowfall in Albuquerque - 14.2".

1973  1    -3.6  
1973  2   -15.0  
1973  3    -0.3  

2019  1    -2.24 
2019  2   -14.62 

The SOI is around -7 in March 2019, but it does look like it will be negative some days but neutral to positive in others over the next ten days. Obviously, Jan-Feb SOI transition is pretty similar, and the storm above looks like the one this week.

[donsutherland1]

The record-intense blizzard is now winding down in areas that were battered yesterday. So far, early data shows that the guidance suggesting 12"-18" snow in parts of the affected region has verified. Cheyenne picked up 14.0" snow yesterday. However, there is a large snowfall data void in the region as no snowfall reports were available in such locations as Limon, CO and Pierre, SD, among others (Chinook's posted message above concerning measurements likely explains the lack of such reports).

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday's 14.0" daily snowfall total at Cheyenne broke the daily record of 9.3", which was set in 1973. It also tied for Cheyenne's 4th biggest daily snowfall on record. That city's biggest daily snowfalls are:

1. 19.8", November 20, 1979
2. 17.3", April 20, 1984
3. 15.9", May 18, 2003
4. 14.0", January 24, 1921; May 2, 1942; and, March 13, 2019

March-May has had the highest frequency of days with 10" or more snow. Those 3 months account for 70% of Cheyenne's days with 10" or more snow. Records go back to 1871.

[mayjawintastawm]

Walked around the neighborhood to assess things early this AM. Two trees down in our neighborhood, prob early afternoon yesterday. One was a 2 foot diameter 30 foot spruce but it was planted in an area where its roots couldn't spread too far, so it uprooted without much difficulty. The other just broke from the sheer weight of snow + lush needles + wind. The dogs were intrigued by both. Fortunately they both fell away from the houses so no property damage. SO glad we spent the $ to have the trees pruned !

[snowfan789]

That was an impressive storm more for the wind than the snow around much of Denver, aside from the foothills, which picked up a surprising amount of snow (probably largely because they switched to snow much sooner than the lower elevations). Now attention shifts to late March and April. There are still decent signs pointing towards above average precip to end our wintery season.

P.S. I’m surprised Cheyenne’s biggest storms aren’t bigger. Denver’s top storms are significantly more impressive.

[Chinook]

55 minutes ago, snowfan789 said:

That was an impressive storm more for the wind than the snow around much of Denver, aside from the foothills, which picked up a surprising amount of snow (probably largely because they switched to snow much sooner than the lower elevations). Now attention shifts to late March and April. There are still decent signs pointing towards above average precip to end our wintery season.

P.S. I’m surprised Cheyenne’s biggest storms aren’t bigger. Denver’s top storms are significantly more impressive.

Cheyenne's top 2-3 day record snowfall amounts are most likely much higher than the 1-day records.

Don Sutherland, if you look at CoCoRAHS, you might be able to see some snowfall measurements that are close to Limon CO and Pierre SD

For my area, 3-4" of snow was measured by CoCoRAHS observers in Fort Collins and Loveland, with 2-day precip totals (rain and snow) of 0.8" to 1.1". This was a very important storm in the total precipitation values.

NOHRSC snowfall analysis.

[snowfan789]

Just came across this - as of today, Colorado’s snowpack is in the 97th percentile compared to average. Wow. With a dry period coming up for the next week or so, this’ll go down some but, still, this snowfall season will go down as very good (or better) in the mountains regardless of the next few months. Also great is the equal opportunity nature of the snowfall. The San Juans finally have had a solid above average year.

https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/Internet/WCIS//basinCharts/POR/WTEQ/CO/STATE OF COLORADO.html

 

[Chinook]

Western snowpack % of normal S.W.E. is a much higher percentage than in December

[raindancewx]

I've been waiting for a March system like this for ages. Our mountains got pasted with snow, as did the mountains by the head waters of the Rio Grande. Wolf Creek had 45 inches of snow last time I checked. The one day improvements are impressive given that in the north of NM the snow peaks in early March, so it is the hardest time to get a big jump in water content.

Ski Santa Fe got 40 inches of snow from this storm as of 7 am, probably more since. Ski Taos got 33 inches, Red River got 27 inches. 

The base at the Taos ski resort is over 100 inches now. Over 90 at Ski Santa Fe.

US snow cover maps right now really show how different the last six weeks have gone for the East and West. I've been pretty happy with my snow outlook nationally, with just about all of the Rockies and Plains above average for snow, which was what I had.

[snowfan789]

56 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I've been waiting for a March system like this for ages. Our mountains got pasted with snow, as did the mountains by the head waters of the Rio Grande. Wolf Creek had 45 inches of snow last time I checked. The one day improvements are impressive given that in the north of NM the snow peaks in early March, so it is the hardest time to get a big jump in water content.

Ski Santa Fe got 40 inches of snow from this storm as of 7 am, probably more since. Ski Taos got 33 inches, Red River got 27 inches. 

The base at the Taos ski resort is over 100 inches now. Over 90 at Ski Santa Fe.

US snow cover maps right now really show how different the last six weeks have gone for the East and West. I've been pretty happy with my snow outlook nationally, with just about all of the Rockies and Plains above average for snow, which was what I had.

To your credit, your winter outlook stands out as notably accurate, especially here on this East Coast-dominated website, where a lot of people were calling for (yet another) big winter in the coastal areas of the East, generally at the expense of the West. More importantly, it is fantastic to see a big dent in the Four Corners drought, finally, though I fear that it’s temporary.

[ValpoVike]

The GFS wants another round in about 10 days.  Fantasy land time frame, but something to watch.

[snowfan789]

Long range forecasts are signaling above average precip from around the end of March thru April in the West - especially Southwest. I don’t think the Winter fun is over yet in a fair amount of the relatively lower elevations (and definitely not in the mountains).

[Chinook]

Storm loops

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/March_13_2019_500mb_loop.html

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/March_13_2019_GFS_sfc_loop.html

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/March_13_2019_radar_loop.html

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/March_13_2019_surface_loop.html

[thunderbolt]

On Wed Mar 13 2019 at 7:24 PM, raindancewx said:

Derecho in TX too. This storm is probably important enough / powerful enough that it deserves some kind of name. I'm going with "Hurricane Kansas" until I see something better. It's not really just a blizzard, severe outbreak, flood, or wind storm, it's all that and more.

I-25 was closed north of Wagon Mound today since the wind was knocking big trucks off the road.

There were some 100 mph wind gusts in Southern NM earlier. Literally "more powerful than a locomotive".

Snow-pack numbers should be up more tomorrow after the heavy snows today.

 

this will never compare to a hurricane

[raindancewx]

It was compared relentlessly to a hurricane in every article I saw on it - the winds "cat 2", the air pressure, the flooding, the thunderstorms, etc. You can look up things like the Great White Hurricane of 1888 to see that "hurricane" in a non-meteorological sense is a a way of conveying that a storm has power. It's obviously not tropical, but for inland areas you had some similar effects.

This is a decent comparison with the Superstorm of 1993 - https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2019-03-15-winter-storm-ulmer-bomb-cyclone-compared-march-1993-superstorm

[mayjawintastawm]

IMO, having been through both ('93 I was in PA), '93 was more impactful. It was over a longer period of time, the very heavy snows were over a MUCH larger area that does not typically have very heavy snows (heck, Wolf Creek gets 52 inches all the time!!) and the recovery period (floods in NE/IA this year very much excepted) was considerably longer in most places. For example, major highways in eastern PA were closed for 2-3 days- this is in an area with 4 million + people.

[raindancewx]

Happy extended ski season everyone.

https://www.krqe.com/news/news-briefs/santa-fe-joins-other-ski-areas-in-extending-its-season/1861115435

[Chinook]

Just for kicks, the 12z GFS has snow falling here almost continuously from hour 162 (day 6.75) to hour 276 (day 11.5), i.e. 114 hours of snow . This leads to very high snow values on the 0-240 hour maps. The Euro has a significant storm for our area at 6-7 days. The Canadian has snow for us at day-6.