raindancewx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 The pattern as it is now should break later in the month. CPC shows a warm East / cool West again long-term. That gels with the long-term records here, every March in the past 100 years will have at least one high here <=54F, and we have yet to see that. I've been impressed with close 1974-75 has been to the past four months, and it is still holding up, at least locally - was very warm early in March (70F ish) before turning very cold in the SW. Some of my Spring/Winter analogs are showing up as good matches for how CPC is building their maps, so that's promising too. 19770307 ---> analog (DJF) 19680324 19990319 ---> analog (MAM) 20000227 19530315 19770302 --> analog (DJF) 19530323 19990324 --> analog (MAM) 19930302 20050331 --> analog (MAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 4, 2019 Author Share Posted March 4, 2019 This looks interesting. The latest GFS and Euro show a storm in about 5 days. Current model charts show little upslope at 500mb-700mb for my area, and nearly zero snow. I suppose this could change. This could generate some heavy snows for CO, UT, WY, ID, and SD and NE in the plains. Another feature may be severe weather possibly in Arkansas and Louisiana. (Already good model agreement on severe weather parameters??) These next 6 days will feature two storms that track through the West. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 Once the MJO wave dies, hopefully in phase 3 and not in phase 4, I think a lot of these relatively moisture starved storms should have a lot more juice to work with. That is what happened in October, AZ, TX, CO got nailed for moisture first, and then late in the month we had rain for basically a non-stop 30 hour period in NM, almost unheard of without tropical juice. That was a week after the phase 3 collapse in October (1.35" or so on 10/22-10/23 in Albuquerque). The thing is, unlike in October, there should be much more cold air around this time for a lot more snow. My rule for Albuquerque is first 75F high and the SOI in February predict March highs well. The SOI was -14.6 in February, and we have yet to hit 70F, let alone 75F. CPC seems to be on board with major tropical moisture from both the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf of California returning to the mix in its outlooks too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 I'm up to 57" for the winter. Should see 2-5" on Friday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan789 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 On 2/28/2019 at 10:16 AM, snowfan789 said: The very fact that I am saying this probably will jinx things, but I’m (as always, cautiously) optimistic for March in the Front Range. The upcoming pattern pretty consistently depicted by the GFS could be the best one so far this winter season, in terms of widespread moisture. The monthly CFS forecast issued today also shows a cold and moist March. It seems to have done okay lately once it’s close to the month it is forecasting and today, of course, is the last day of February. Now watch things start falling apart... Optimism hereby revoked. Not liking recent trends on the gfs for east of the Rockies. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Looks to me like Billings, Montana has been below 32F non-stop, except for a brief foray to suana territory (33F) on 2/23, since February 13th. So except for maybe an hour, that's roughly three weeks below freezing non-stop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batteen Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Aberdeen, SD has been below freezing, and below average, since 35 degrees on January 27th. Nothing above freezing or average coming in the 7 day either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 I'm kind of amazed how wrong my winter outlook ended up being in the Northern Plains - Dec+Jan was +3F against 1951-2010 high as I expected for those areas, and then February absolutely destroyed it, with 20-25F below normal readings for Montana. The Plains flipped cold too, but not quite as hard. I was "only" out by 6F in Bismarck in winter after being within 2F as late as 2/10 when I started to evaluate my outlook. Even though the numbers I had came in a different order than expected, most parts of the US were within 2-3F of my high forecast blend, outside the Northern Plains and coastal SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan789 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 10 hours ago, batteen said: Aberdeen, SD has been below freezing, and below average, since 35 degrees on January 27th. Nothing above freezing or average coming in the 7 day either. I generally think of (warming) chinook winds off the Rockies to be the enemy here near Denver but, wow, that’s an awfully long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 7, 2019 Author Share Posted March 7, 2019 What is this, Pennsylvania or something? KDEN 070518Z 07008KT 4SM -PL BR OVC004 M02/M03 A2989 RMK AO2 FZDZE00FZRAB00E15PLB15 P0002 I1002 T10221028 $ KDEN 070501Z 06009KT 4SM -FZRA BR OVC004 M02/M03 A2988 RMK AO2 FZDZE00FZRAB00 P0000 I1001 T10221033 $ KDEN 070453Z 05009KT 6SM -FZDZ BR OVC003 M02/M03 A2988 RMK AO2 UPB48E49FZDZB49 SLP132 P0000 I1000 T10221033 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 I know, except Pennsylvania would have had like 30 straight hours of that. We woke up to about 1/4" sleet on the ground which made for an hour or two of very slick going till the sun rose and melted it in about 12 seconds. Really feels like spring out there today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 Might have to hit the slopes next week. Euro has had enormous precipitation totals. Not too far out now - since it starts Monday. This is actually comparable to what happened in October. The MJO did the 1-2-3 thing 10/1-10/16, then it died, then it rained like crazy - we had 1.35" in Albuquerque - monsoon like - but in late October from tropical moisture. I did a query on some of the old data here, Albuquerque has only had 17 days with over 0.4 inches of precipitation in March since 1932, so these are probably near record totals if the Euro is even half right. I'd expect the GFS, which has never really shown more than 0.5" or 0.6" is probably a lot closer, but the Euro did have the big October rains/snows before the GFS did. So we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 Well, this is new, but I don't know if it is right. A 500mb low will be coming out of the Southwest on Wednesday. These particular model runs (since 00z or 06z) may have been the first runs to show significant snow accumulations in eastern Colorado. (not sure) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 I'd imagine you get smoked pretty hard in March Chinook for what its worth. My winter analogs had November and March as the top snow months for CO and UT (not really surprising), and the Spring analogs still favored March but the timing shifted to mid-March instead of early March. The CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day analogs have included periods in March 1973, 1998, 2003, 2005, etc, recently as top matches - all pretty impressive snow periods for the high terrain of the SW, and often the areas east of the mountains too, from basically Cheyenne to Amarillo or even Roswell depending on the year. The 1974-75 cold season has been pretty close nationally to recent months, and you had some big storms then too. It's kind of crazy, but my precip pattern since July is a very close match to 1974-75 and 1998-99 - both La Nina with big Marches, but also 1941-42, 1957-58, 2004-05 - El Ninos after major hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast - also with big Marches. So the "La Nina ish" interference that has shown up in winter, via the MJO / SOI behavior (+9.1 in Dec) doesn't seem to be interfering with March. The local NWS put this on Twitter. I did want to make one observation - the local radar is down in Albuquerque. They are upgrading it. So now casting with radar won't be possible for the tornadoes and snow conditions that develop where that radar provides best coverage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Who you gonna call? Drought busters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 00Z GFS looks like crap for a big storm for most of Eastern CO other than the northeast corner. Way more progressive and suppressed south and east compared to before. It actually has the heaviest precip in the area north and east too, like Cheyenne. Hopefully things will not go that way with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan789 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 But the NAM looks better. So let’s go with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 I will try the correct thread now: ECMWF and its Ensembles are similar to GFS charts for this system. Happy skiing @raindancewx. Southern NM ranges not quite as much snow. However one can infer similar snow levels and snow in the same places and/or mountain ranges. Ensembles get the UT/CO mountains again late next week. That one is not as south. Looks like energy sneaks in as Pac NW ridging breaks up a bit and/or lifts into Canada. GFS is less bullish; however, it's been missing West troughs in the 11-15 day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 NAM 3km has a spot of over 80" of snow around the Truchas Peaks in northern NM with over 6" liquid equivalent. This is a warm storm so even at 9k rain will likely mix in cutting totals at ski resort base levels. Many spots will receive over 2" of liquid with this along with some thunderstorms. Been a long time since NM has had a March storm like this. I expect some infrastructure issues with this heavy wet snow along with periods of heavy rain causing melting and icing issues overnight. Glad I am not up there right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 The GFS had a 972 MB low over Western Kansas on its last few runs. I'm expecting a conversion to snow at some point late Tuesday or Wednesday, but it probably would be under one inch, two at most. There probably will be a colder storm at some point for us, next shot may be around 3/20 - 3/22 given the big SOI drops lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 NWS BOU AFD has the word "bombogenesis" in it this afternoon. I don't think I've seen that word in an AFD where I live since I moved from MA in 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 This storm has a real shot at being the strongest storm of all time in Kansas, by barometric pressure. Albuquerque is up to 0.19" today. As sad as it is, that's a top three day for March precipitation since 2007. The real rains (and snows) will be tomorrow as the cold front kicks out the record moisture profile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 12, 2019 Author Share Posted March 12, 2019 I am trying not to jinx this storm, as I am still in the zone where I could get lucky or unlucky on snow. Hopefully the downsloping winds don't have the effect of cutting our snow totals way too low. Blizzard warning for Weld County, Denver County, Adams County, and Arapahoe County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 There is still time, but the moisture profile hasn't quite had its act together locally. Only 0.30" rain so far since 3/11 in Albuquerque as of 5:20 pm, despite record dew points and (maybe) record strength for this system. The mother of cold fronts with screaming West winds should be fun tomorrow, and I still think we'll go over to at least some snow mixing in in Albuquerque, or at least the elevated parts of the city. 0.30" is still the wettest March in Albuquerque since 2010, despite the long-term average being 0.50" in March. We've really had a terrible run of Marches in the SW for precipitation outside the northern parts of NM/AZ. The models, through Sunday Night were showing 1.00-1.40" generally for this storm, but have really backed down, to kind of a general 0.40-0.80" for much of NM outside the mountains and southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 10 hours ago, Chinook said: I am trying not to jinx this storm, as I am still in the zone where I could get lucky or unlucky on snow. Hopefully the downsloping winds don't have the effect of cutting our snow totals way too low. Blizzard warning for Weld County, Denver County, Adams County, and Arapahoe County. I'm in Ogallala. It looks like this thing will be just to the north and west of me. Deuel and Arthur counties have blizzard warnings. We are looking at 2", if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 Fairly copious warm air with this dynamic storm is a bit of an anomaly for the High Plains this time of year. Will be interesting to see what really materializes. Will we get a blizzard, or a hurricane? GFS at 00z is juicy (maybe frozen juice, or a slushie) and windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 For large areas of the US, this may be somewhat akin to the Blizzard of 1993 when all is said and done. I don't know that I'll live to see another 970 mb low in Kansas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan789 Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 Still a huge amount of uncertainty regarding how things shake out near Denver (especially west of town at the base of the foothills). I cannot recall another storm with such a wide range between boom and bust scenarios. Definitely interesting and fun for us weather nerds, if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 13, 2019 Author Share Posted March 13, 2019 The storm is starting. I have some rain and 45-50 degrees at nighttime. Normally it is cooler by this time of night, maybe 35 ish. essentially the last NWS gridded forecast before the start of the storm. 15" for Cheyenne, about 6" for Fort Collins through Denver, 8" for DIA, up to 11" east of DIA, 13-14" for far western Nebraska. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 From WPC: NWS WPCVerified account @NWSWPC 2h2 hours ago New preliminary record low pressure set at Pueblo, CO! At 7am MDT Pueblo reported a sea level pressure of 975.5 MB. Their previous record low pressure was 976.6 MB, with records dating back to 1893. From NWS Pueblo: NWS PuebloVerified account @NWSPueblo 1h1 hour ago NWS Pueblo Retweeted ColoClimateCenter Not official, but La Junta is at 973.4 mb central pressure! #COwx #Colorado 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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