Mountain West Discussion

[Chinook]

sunset over the mountains (yesterday)

[raindancewx]

Nate Mantua sent out the November PDO...came in at -0.05. That warmth by Japan seems to be getting stronger. Not sure which "blob" wins so to speak for US weather. My hunch is cold shots will go to different places globally and nationally instead of concentrating in one spot like they tend to do when the PDO is in a traditional warm/cold phase.

 

[raindancewx]

Looking back at Dec 2006 so far, my temperatures are nearly identical. It also didn't snow or rain in the first half of the month. A storm did come through around 12/19, and then obviously very late in the month it became active. This year may also feature some precipitation around 12/19 in NM as 2006 did, if you believe the models.

There are two real issues at this point though:

1) AMO is much colder than in 2006, so storm track would be different, even though the models are starting to show systems moving across the SW again way out in fantasy land (+300 hrs).

2) The SOI has been very positive this month, and it was negative in the first half of Dec 2006. So any systems that come through would probably have much less moisture. That being said, there was a 10-point SOI drop from 12/7 to 12/9, and those tend to show up as storms 10-20 days later out here in the cold season.

The MJO got to phase 3/4 in late December 2006, so that is another issue. The 5-6-7 transition of 2015 was pretty good for us in December though, and it does look like we have a shot at hitting at least phase 5 in another week - we're in phase 4 now.

[Chinook]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Looking back at Dec 2006 so far, my temperatures are nearly identical. It also didn't snow or rain in the first half of the month. A storm did come through around 12/19, and then obviously very late in the month it became active.

Oh my gosh, 12/19/2006 was the day before THE STORM of 12/20/2006. That was definitely juiced up with some El Nino connection to tropical moisture, as 500mb lows of that magnitude in the Southwest pretty much only happen with El Nino winters.

Another great sunset. As I said before, I used to live in Ohio and Michigan and I always dreamed of watching sunsets over the Rocky Mountains. Now I can take these pictures from a place near home. On the left hand side, you can see the numerous peaks of the Indian Peaks, where many mountain peaks are about the same height and hard to distinguish. Anybody near Boulder or Denver will know what I am talking about.

[raindancewx]

Increasingly curious about what happens in January nationally. No El Ninos with a strongly +SOI in December exist back to 1930. SOI is at +8.7 through 12/16.

La Ninas with a negative SOI in December tend to be warm the following January. The question is whether flipping that is appropriate, i.e. to a cold US January. Or whether the warmth is from one thing associated with La Nina being in contradiction with one thing favoring El Nino, which looks like it will be true this year. I will say, Nov 1-Dec 15 looks a lot like 1997 nationally for temperatures, and if you roll that into January 1998, the temperature anomalies look like La Ninas after a -SOI in December.

At some point later in the month or early January, the SOI should crash, and there should be some kind of violent pattern shift from that I think. If we remember last winter, the SOI crashed hard in February 2018, during the La Nina, and the pattern went bat---t for like six weeks. All the Nor'easters in March, all the record cold in the West for late Feb-early Mar. Very different pattern from earlier in the winter.

[snowfan789]

Basically hasn’t snowed in Denver in a month. Our multi-year, now nearly unprecedented snow drought continues. Any reason for hope would be appreciated. I have tried but can’t find any straws to grasp until February at the earliest.

[BlizzardWx]

A snowy period may set up here near the 23-30th or so. Should be a few systems that will move through. Hopefully at least one turns out to be significant. 

[mayjawintastawm]

16 hours ago, snowfan789 said:

Basically hasn’t snowed in Denver in a month. Our multi-year, now nearly unprecedented snow drought continues. Any reason for hope would be appreciated. I have tried but can’t find any straws to grasp until February at the earliest.

Yeah, the landscape has mainly turned to dirt. Before long there won't be any vegetation to worry about. At least it won't burn. I expect a Mars rover to explore my yard any day now. I wonder how the dogs will react.

[Chinook]

I got sunset pictures with clear skies on three successive days. This is from Saturday. I have enhanced the contrast so you can see the wavy clouds (Kelvin-Helmholtz wave clouds?)

Model ensembles show signs of a pattern change to a trough in the Southwest on Dec 25th - Dec 27th.   Since Dec 27th is 9.5 days away, I don't feel like I can say much about this at this time. Otherwise, this month has gotten --too-- boring up to date. We had one snowy day with 0.9" to 1" in Fort Collins/ Loveland. The day 1 to day 5 ensemble means show +6 Celsius or +11 Fahrenheit. This should put our temperature anomaly at +3 Fahrenheit for this month, (December 1st to 22nd)

[Chinook]

An area of clouds was moving up against the mountains in the northern half of Colorado, before noon today. Apparently Kody Wilson got this terrific picture, probably from 30000 ft.

[Roger Smith]

Extensive damage from a tornado that touched down briefly at Port Orchard, WA around 2145z on Tuesday 18th. Video shown on local news and substantial damage to homes and trees would suggest possibly EF-2 intensity. A very rare occurrence in a less than obvious severe storm environment with a rather average sort of Pacific frontal wave coming ashore. Radar got briefly intense, seems to have dropped out of a low cloud base and relatively low-topped cb cloud. Probably the second most intense tornado in the region (think there was something back around 1972 near Vancouver WA that was rated EF-3). More damage than seen at Manzanita OR last autumn IIRC. 

[BlizzardWx]

3 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Extensive damage from a tornado that touched down briefly at Port Orchard, WA around 2145z on Tuesday 18th. Video shown on local news and substantial damage to homes and trees would suggest possibly EF-2 intensity. A very rare occurrence in a less than obvious severe storm environment with a rather average sort of Pacific frontal wave coming ashore. Radar got briefly intense, seems to have dropped out of a low cloud base and relatively low-topped cb cloud. Probably the second most intense tornado in the region (think there was something back around 1972 near Vancouver WA that was rated EF-3). More damage than seen at Manzanita OR last autumn IIRC. 

From what I've seen its a solid EF2 tornado, but otherwise its just as you said. In the western valleys of Oregon and Washington WSW to SW flow always has to be watched in the post frontal environment. Frequently these long and narrow bands set up downwind of the coast range from convergence with decent wind shear (southerly up the valley and SW above the valley). Periodically they spin up a weak tornado, and rarely a more significant one. 

[BlizzardWx]

It's really looking snowy here from Saturday-Wednesday or so. ECMWF with a 10-1 ratio had 10" at KSLC, and the ratio will probably be higher than that given the cold temperatures aloft. 

[mayjawintastawm]

4 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

It's really looking snowy here from Saturday-Wednesday or so. ECMWF with a 10-1 ratio had 10" at KSLC, and the ratio will probably be higher than that given the cold temperatures aloft. 

Nice. Please be generous and don't take it all before it crosses the Divide.

[Chinook]

Forecasts have changed rapidly over the past couple of days. The 12z and 18z GFS have a lot of snow for Colorado on Dec 26th.  The most recent Euro has a large storm system, too, with the 4" snow or better basically in Nebraska. This storm still may have some forecast changes. I will fly in to Denver on one of the days when we may get hit with snow. Thankfully, I will not be driving I-80 in Nebraska, which seems likely to have snow on the 26th. At the moment, I'm not too concerned about my own travel plans. On the positive side of things, there should be some mountain snows in several areas of the West.

[Chinook]

Just for kicks, lets see how the GFS and the Euro look for the snow totals. This storm starts out in Utah and Nevada on Christmas and continues to Dec. 28th in Minnesota. There could be large changes to the QPF forecasts still yet to come. 

 

 

 

[raindancewx]

I'm a big believer in some kind of potent system moving through after Christmas here, possibly two or three. When I did my analogs, late Dec showed up in "bright red lights" so to speak. I was concerned that the +SOI would eat up the storms moisture pretty easily, but we had a big 14 point day/day SOI drop a few days ago, and you do tend to get storms here in the cold season when that happens, around 10-days later. It doesn't really surprise me, the MJO is also moving toward six now which is a good phase this time of year for fun and games. I haven't researched this extensively, but when we bust "positively" i.e. more rain/snow than expected - the SOI does seem to be negative the same day as the storm, and the European does seem to have a negative or at least less positive SOI for Christmas.

These were the time frames that had clusters of snow-storms in the analogs

Nov 20-30, Dec 19-30, Jan 3-9, Jan 15-21, Jan 29-30, Feb 13-19, Feb 25-26

I'd have to look, but I think the Nov period did verify for most areas north and east of me in NM.

[Chinook]

I have been off the internet for over 24 hours. Not a lot has changed. The storm on next Wed - Thu may be impressive with snowfall in northeast and eastern Colorado. The big question is how much this might impact the populated areas. This is most recent GFS 12 hr snowfall as of Wednesday night to Thursday morning. 

 

[raindancewx]

Weather.com and Accuweather both have some version of "Expect 3-5 inches of snow" on Friday for Albuquerque. We can get 20:1 ratios here, but I'd still probably go 15:1 or 17:1 on Friday even though the local NWS thinks the second system will be -12C (10F) around 700mb, which is pretty cold, probably close to what our coldest storm would be in average winter.

[Chinook]

The first phase of the storm may bring light snow or no snow to Fort Collins and Denver. This is a huge let-down. There should be some 4-8" snow totals at high elevations in the rockies (north), but that is not too much, compared to what could have been.

 It will get cranking again in New Mexico with another shortwave at 500mb. Snow totals could be 10-15" or more near and east of the Sangre de Cristo range in New Mexico, in the 5-day snow totals.

[Voyager]

Friday is where my interest lies. I will be trucking across I-40 fom Tulsa to the 66 Casino that day, if I don't drop south to I-10 to aviod it.

What are the thoughts of you western guys and gals with regards to this event?

[mayjawintastawm]

Your last couple hundred miles look a bit dicey at this point. Too early to tell for sure, but snow and icy roads on I-40 in the western TX panhandle and E NM high plains look like a good bet, with temps possibly remaining below freezing for a couple of days. Not a fun place to be if it does snow. Check back in a day or so.

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, mayjawintastawm said:

Your last couple hundred miles look a bit dicey at this point. Too early to tell for sure, but snow and icy roads on I-40 in the western TX panhandle and E NM high plains look like a good bet, with temps possibly remaining below freezing for a couple of days. Not a fun place to be if it does snow. Check back in a day or so.

Thanks. I've been keeping an eye on this since yesterday. I'm heading to LA after loading in Ohio. I'd probably lose some time going south around it, but I might lose more if I-40 turns into an icy nighmare.

[Chinook]

Northeast New Mexico will get pummeled by the 2nd part of this storm. Models have nearly 2" of QPF at the Raton Mesa and Raton Pass (Colorado/New Mexico border.) Voyager, I-40 in New Mexico in general is looking like it could be a big mess if you drive it during the storm, for sure. 

[raindancewx]

I-40 is often closed in sufficiently heavy snows - keep that in mind. Same for all the other highways in NM. I-10 snow storms are not unheard of either, sometimes storms will sag south of their projected tracks at the last second out here. The casinos do have services for truckers, and we have lots of truck stops. I've been warning my casino that we accommodate some weary travelers later in the week.

[Voyager]

Thanks guys! I'll be monitoring this thread (along with the models and the NWS) for your thoughts and analysis. 

[snowfan789]

9 hours ago, Chinook said:

The first phase of the storm may bring light snow or no snow to Fort Collins and Denver. This is a huge let-down. There should be some 4-8" snow totals at high elevations in the rockies (north), but that is not too much, compared to what could have been.

 It will get cranking again in New Mexico with another shortwave at 500mb. Snow totals could be 10-15" or more near and east of the Sangre de Cristo range in New Mexico, in the 5-day snow totals.

Disappointing for sure and, so, our remarkable lack of snow persists. We just can’t seem to catch a break.

[finnster]

12 hours ago, snowfan789 said:

Disappointing for sure and, so, our remarkable lack of snow persists. We just can’t seem to catch a break.

Agreed, hugely disappointing.

I think it is beyond disappointing it is alarming.  Are we (the front range region) just incredibly unlucky getting storms, or has the climate changed to the point where we we’re just not going to see snow seasons of more than 30” (or years like this one that may be even much less than that)?

i’m really interested in opinions of those on this on this forum that know more about the weather and climate than I...

Thanks

 

 

 

 

[mayjawintastawm]

What seems to be happening is that with long-term changes, upper-level patterns are becoming more amplified/persistent so the big storms dig further south and east consistently. So we miss the upslope ones, which provide the most precip. I think that's the more alarming thing, since upslope storms provide the bulk of Oct-April precip east of the Divide till you get east of around 102 W. I have no met training at all, just lots of other science and good at recognizing patterns (I think).

[snowfan789]

I am reluctant to blame climate change on the lack of big storms just yet. We have had some notably big storms since 2000, and a fair amount of above average snowfall seasons since then too though, as we all know, the past 2.5 years have been truly terrible. I think we can safely say that marginally cold storms are more likely to elicit rain than snow than they once were. That happened most recently in Denver in early November 2018 as I recall. What would’ve been about a 3-6” snowfall in temps a few degrees colder ended up being rain for almost all of the metro area. I suspect the horrific past few years have been largely attributable to sea surface temperature distributions that may or may not have much relationship with climate change. I am not a meteorologist but have followed weather and climate for years. I am cautiously optimistic that things will eventually turn around for the Front Range when it comes to snow, aside from those marginally cold storms that typically occur in the fall and spring. With that said, unless our winter precip goes up as the climate continues to warm (which some models have predicted), I do think our average annual snowfall will go down because of rain replacing what would’ve been snow. How the current Southwest mega-drought plays into all of this I don’t know but that may be another important factor to consider.