October/November Mid/Long Range Disco

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

I know it's low probability but the 12th - 14th time frame looks interesting. Both the GFS and it's twin have had a system pass south of us The past several runs. Alot of cold air around for this early. Definitely low chances but something to watch.

 

Anyway, look at the precip on some of these models

[Bob Chill]

The previous discussion about north American snowcover is becoming relevant it seems. We're in for some pretty cold November weather coming up in the not so distant future. Shovelable snow in November is very scarce in the burbs with temp climo being so hard to overcome. Sure is starting to look like cold enough air will be nearby in just about a week or so. I won't lie... active southern jet + great conditions in our source region for cold air has me intrigued.

Sure would be sweet to have a storm thread before Thanksgiving so I can see the northern and western crew posting deep snow pics while my yard finishes a cold rain storm with 20 mins of wet fatties melting on contact. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Big November snows have happened.  Here's Capital Weather Gangs article on the 1987 Vet day storm. The old saying'  it won't stick ...its been too warm lately ' fails even in  November lol.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/11/10/weathermen-recall-the-record-veterans-day-snowstorm-that-totally-fooled-them-30-years-ago/

I also remember 1989 ? I think . In Baltimore we got a white Turkey day .

November  1953 was pretty big snow as well esp n+w . Dont have my Kocin book but I'm sure that's the year 

You have the year right. Westminster had 12" from a storm in November 53. 

[poolz1]

Big November snows have happened.  Here's Capital Weather Gangs article on the 1987 Vet day storm. The old saying'  it won't stick ...its been too warm lately ' fails even in  November lol.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/11/10/weathermen-recall-the-record-veterans-day-snowstorm-that-totally-fooled-them-30-years-ago/
I also remember 1989 ? I think . In Baltimore we got a white Turkey day .
November  1953 was pretty big snow as well esp n+w . Dont have my Kocin book but I'm sure that's the year 

Looks like my memory of 4” was pretty spot on....even at 12 yo I didn’t slant stick! Lol

[midatlanticweather]

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Big November snows have happened.  Here's Capital Weather Gangs article on the 1987 Vet day storm. The old saying'  it won't stick ...its been too warm lately ' fails even in  November lol.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/11/10/weathermen-recall-the-record-veterans-day-snowstorm-that-totally-fooled-them-30-years-ago/

I also remember 1989 ? I think . In Baltimore we got a white Turkey day .

November  1953 was pretty big snow as well esp n+w . Dont have my Kocin book but I'm sure that's the year 

Even in Richmond, we had a sleety snowy mess cover the ground. 89 was a stange year down there. Most snow in December and bitter cold. That was the FL to Myrtle Beach white Christmas year. January it flipped warm and never went back. https://www.weather.gov/ilm/ChristmasSnow1989

[mattie g]

So basically what the last few posts have told me is that early snow means a pretty boring winter overall.

Pass.

[midatlanticweather]

7 hours ago, mattie g said:

So basically what the last few posts have told me is that early snow means a pretty boring winter overall.

Pass.

Snow is never a super easy thing so you have to take what you get. The flip. In 89 may have been the Nino that came on strong at the beginning of 1990 if I remember correctly. We can't control the weather so let it be and enjoy every flake no matter when... 

[EastCoast NPZ]

well, if it helps any, we had (at least out here) a nice snow in Nov '95.  Was either right before or right after T-day.  6", can remember that in detail, and that I used that night as an opportunity to get to do some hassle-free early shopping.  Nearly had Apple Blossom Mall in Winchester to myself.

Oh, and 32F for the low this morning.

[nj2va]

00z Euro advertising the season’s first real cold shot next weekend.  Urban areas getting down into the 20s.  Would be DCA’s first freeze.  

[Wonderdog]

Looks like around  8 days from now, we have some blocking setting up and a pretty good coastal developing. Right now, it's a close meteorological miss. I love chasing ghosts!

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Looks like around  8 days from now, we have some blocking setting up and a pretty good coastal developing. Right now, it's a close meteorological miss. I love chasing ghosts!

Look at the ridge out west. Very impressive. It's low probability but still to have something close in the first half of November is rare.

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, Wonderdog said:

Looks like around  8 days from now, we have some blocking setting up and a pretty good coastal developing. Right now, it's a close meteorological miss. I love chasing ghosts!

I’d like thanksgiving to be cold if possible.  We tend to fail on holidays when it comes to cold.  Whatever you can do would be appreciated

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

I’d like thanksgiving to be cold if possible.  We tend to fail on holidays when it comes to cold.  Whatever you can do would be appreciated

LOL.About the best I can do is forecast sunny and temps in mid 70's. That's about as close as I usually get.

[BristowWx]

28 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

LOL.About the best I can do is forecast sunny and temps in mid 70's. That's about as close as I usually get.

That is a safe forecast and fits climo..not real climo but MA despair climo...the more accurate climo

[Bob Chill]

just for giggles... check out #2 analog. lol

 

[showmethesnow]

10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

What's a 1046 high among friends.  Wow ..sure lookin likely we see a shot at winter like temps . I see a couple Gefs members are showing a ridiculous 1050+ high D8 + in the Dakotas. 

Was just looking at that. Impressive to say the least with the extent and the negative departures of the cold they are showing. The models have been really giving my thoughts of at least a warm first half of November the middle finger the last few days. 

[Sparky]

19 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Big November snows have happened.  Here's Capital Weather Gangs article on the 1987 Vet day storm. The old saying'  it won't stick ...its been too warm lately ' fails even in  November lol.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/11/10/weathermen-recall-the-record-veterans-day-snowstorm-that-totally-fooled-them-30-years-ago/

I also remember 1989 ? I think . In Baltimore we got a white Turkey day .

November  1953 was pretty big snow as well esp n+w . Dont have my Kocin book but I'm sure that's the year 

Nov. 95 I had three separate 4 inch events for a total of 12" that month.  And the rest was history.

[BristowWx]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

just for giggles... check out #2 analog. lol

 

Wasn’t 11-8-87 the big snow for Vets day? It was 11-11-87...still the set up had to be there

[NorthArlington101]

EPS decidedly more interesting for the Day 10ish period. Pretty colors...

 

Ready for another OP to toss out a good run. Happy hour FV3?

 

[CAPE]

Hmm...not bad for mid Nov.

 

[BristowWx]

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Hmm...not bad for mid Nov.

 

And so it begins....game on...No rest until April.  

[CAPE]

There is a signal for a cold storm towards mid month. Still long odds for any measurable snow outside the western highlands, but this looks like an impressive early season cold shot on the guidance, so who knows. Some flakes in the air certainly look possible at this point. Hard freeze looks pretty likely.

[Bob Chill]

Impressive seeing the eps having some solutions in the mix that give AL, MS, and GA snow in November. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

56 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Hmm...not bad for mid Nov.

 

It's less than 300 hrs out. lol

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Hmm...not bad for mid Nov.

That looks better than many of our snow maps during the heart of winter the last few years. 

[CAPE]

Just now, nj2va said:

That looks better than many of our snow maps during the heart of winter the last few years. 

Ha true. There is somewhat of a signal there. Outside of your place in the western highlands, the modeled potential snow would occur between the 12th and the 15th. I am still pretty skeptical, esp for I-95 and east. It is an interesting h5 look tho, and there is some potential there for first flakes. Tony Pann may finally be able to put the word 'snow' in his forecast and not look like a total effing idiot, lol.

[RDM]

3 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Wasn’t 11-8-87 the big snow for Vets day? It was 11-11-87...still the set up had to be there

 

Indeed - that 11-11-87 shellacking was memorable.  Had 13" in Lorton.  Posted the below earlier today in the digital snow thread.  Haven't figured out how to quote something here from another thread yet.  

Begin quote

That MAY be the storm you are thinking about, but we also got nailed on 11 Nov 1987 - Veterans Day.  I moved to NVA from Ohio in 85 and remember the Nov 87 storm well.  It snuck up on everyone and crippled DC.  Had an ULL that generated its own cold and a lot of fatties.  The rates were intense - and the bullseye was the proverbial "DC Snow Hole" with as much as 15".  I lived in Lorton at the time at Pohick and Rt-1 and we got about 13" there.  

Here's a couple of articles about it:

https://www.weatherbug.com/news/Washington-s-Veterans-Day-Storm-Remembered

https://dcstorms.com/2012/11/11/veterans-day-snowstorm-of-1987/

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, RDM said:

 

Indeed - that 11-11-87 shellacking was memorable.  Had 13" in Lorton.  Posted the below earlier today in the digital snow thread.  Haven't figured out how to quote something here from another thread yet.  

Begin quote

That MAY be the storm you are thinking about, but we also got nailed on 11 Nov 1987 - Veterans Day.  I moved to NVA from Ohio in 85 and remember the Nov 87 storm well.  It snuck up on everyone and crippled DC.  Had an ULL that generated its own cold and a lot of fatties.  The rates were intense - and the bullseye was the proverbial "DC Snow Hole" with as much as 15".  I lived in Lorton at the time at Pohick and Rt-1 and we got about 13" there.  

Here's a couple of articles about it:

https://www.weatherbug.com/news/Washington-s-Veterans-Day-Storm-Remembered

https://dcstorms.com/2012/11/11/veterans-day-snowstorm-of-1987/

Hit the “+” in the bottom left of the post you want to quote. Then when you get into the thread you want to quote, click in the reply section and click “Quote 1 post” and the quote will appear.

It’s that easy!

[RDM]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Hit the “+” in the bottom left of the post you want to quote. Then when you get into the thread you want to quote, click in the reply section and click “Quote 1 post” and the quote will appear.

It’s that easy!

Thanks much - tried to do that a few times before and got it all mucked up...  Will keep this for the next time I try to quote something across threads.  

[WxUSAF]

Euro and EPS have a coastal next Tuesday.  Too warm for everyone, even if the far N+W crew, but worth keeping an eye on.  850s below freezing for the mountains and foothills, but boundary layer is a furnace.

 

Really hope this active pattern is a sign of the future. Has the feel like we’re going to be tracking D1, D3, D5, and a D10 threat all at the same time this winter at some point.