October/November Mid/Long Range Disco

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Both the EPS and GEFS have an impressive blocking ridge building over Scandinavia for early November. Worth watching to see if higher h5 heights start to build into GL from there towards mid month. 

Been noticing that as well. Hope that is a semi-permanent fixture this winter. With what I think will be a mostly a +PNA/-EPO winter think we might get some opportunities for bridging over top with both. The weeklies actually flirt with it a little bit throughout the run. Would make for some fun times if we can get the blocking up there.

[CAPE]

49 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Been noticing that as well. Hope that is a semi-permanent fixture this winter. With what I think will be a mostly a +PNA/-EPO winter think we might get some opportunities for bridging over top with both. The weeklies actually flirt with it a little bit throughout the run. Would make for some fun times if we can get the blocking up there.

Yeah and actually the latest GEFS runs do hint at blocking towards the end. Check out the 0z run- it as what appears to be a semi-stationary 50-50 low in place underneath a ridge poking into GL days 14-16.

 

[Interstate]

I hate seeing App runners.

[midatlanticweather]

 

[NorthArlington101]

GEFS and EPS have been slowly going from no chances in the long-range to slightly more interesting. Given the decent look that we might be going into mid-November I wouldn’t be shocked if we start tracking things in two weeks or so. Maybe the fantasy Thanksgiving Day storm.

[showmethesnow]

Now only 64 more runs to bring this home. We can do this. 

[showmethesnow]

I look at the long range on the models and I can't help but get excited.  And this isn't just a one day/one model run sort of thing either because we have seen the models building towards this setup for some time now. We are pretty much one key ingredient away from a killer pattern. Of course a great pattern doesn't necessarily mean we score because the devil is in the details but it sure goes a long way in upping the odds for our region.

Below I have posted day 15 of the EPS (GEFS is quite similar). The key features that are setting us up are the ridging extending up towards the pole from central Europe as well as from eastern Russia. At this point the main PV is located over the pole with extensions out towards Russia, Alaska and NE Canada. Now this ridging alone will do a number on the PV weakening and disrupting it a good deal. The ridging placement also favors forcing the PV towards our side of the globe probably into central Canada. These are all good things for our snow chances.  But as I said we are one key ingredient way from a great pattern. What we are missing is a +PNA. And I am not talking the transient +PNAs we have seen but one with some life and durability.

Let's see what happens when we throw in a +PNA into the below pattern. First off this creates further disruption and weakening of the PV. Second, we would tend to see the PNA help channel the PV into eastern Canada instead of central. This is a prime spot for our region. Third, it will push the extension of the PV in Alaska westward towards the Aleutians setting us up for an Aleutian low. Again, good thing to see. Finally it should shift the mean trough, which has favored the central US up to this point, eastward into a prime location for our region. Now one other note about what we are seeing. The Atlantic looks primed. The Scandinavian ridging is creating a -NAO and we are consistently seeing lower heights south of Greenland towards the 50/50 region. Surface lows tend to gravitate towards the lower heights so this look suggests we would have frequent 50/50 lows. A -NAO and 50/50 are often a catalyst for our bigger storms. Honestly, IMO throw a static +PNA into the pattern below and I think you would be hard pressed to find a better and more stable setup for our snow chances.

 

Now up to this point we we haven't seen any indications of a steady state +PNA as they have all been transient. But I am thinking we will see that change in the next month or so. Enso forcing from an El Nino quite often takes some time to get established as evidenced by how often Nino winters are late blooming winters. Once that does we should see a durable +PNA get established. In fact there are already indications that we are seeing El Ninos effects coming into play as we are now seeing a sub-tropical jet showing up on the models. At this point I am looking at late November, early December for the +PNA to get firmly established and shortly thereafter for the fun to hopefully begin (early/mid December).

Just another quick comment. Now if in fact the ridging we see extending up from Russia and Europe and hopefully in the western CONSUS (+PNA) is the default setting after any relax we could be looking at a very active winter. What excites me is that the placement of these ridges is almost ideal as we do not need all three on the board at the same time to score. Any combination of two sets us up in a decent to potentially very good pattern. Hell, we can often get away with one (+PNA, European ridge induced -NAO). 

[midatlanticweather]

 

[Superstorm]

 

Classic....keep this!!


.

[NorthArlington101]

What a cold push for mid-November...

4 days below freezing for many of us... brrrr

[WxUSAF]

Pretty clear that the first 8-9 days of Novie will be warm despite a day or two or near normal in there. Than it looks like we get a decent cold push around the 9-10th. Corresponds with a -AO period it looks like. After that is TBD. But I’m glad that the guidance hasn’t trended toward a blue ball over AK. GEFS has trended toward higher heights there which should help limit the continent getting flooded with PAC air.

[poolz1]

Nice to see op runs not being shy at all with higher heights into GL. Unlike years where it is relentless blues and the rare pop of transient +heights. Hopefully a good sign as we head into late fall.

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[CAPE]

1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Nice to see op runs not being shy at all with higher heights into GL. Unlike years where it is relentless blues and the rare pop of transient +heights. Hopefully a good sign as we head into late fall.

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As is always the case with modeled NA blocking, buyer beware. The ops runs really aren't advertising anything prolonged, and the signal is inconsistent from run to run. On the ensemble runs, there are also hints, but its generally washed out as it is more towards the end of the run. Biggest take away IMO is that there is some persistence in the guidance wrt the strength of the Scandinavian ridging, and this can help in the AO domain(along with an Aleutian trough/-EPO) and/or it may retrograde into the NAO domain down the road.

[poolz1]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

As is always the case with modeled NA blocking, buyer beware. The ops runs really aren't advertising anything prolonged, and the signal is inconsistent from run to run. On the ensemble runs, there are also hints, but its generally washed out as it is more towards the end of the run. Biggest take away IMO is that there is some persistence in the guidance wrt the strength of the Scandinavian ridging, and this can help in the AO domain(along with an Aleutian trough/-EPO) and/or it may retrograde into the NAO domain down the road.

Yeah....I do agree with you here.  I guess my point was not necessarily to focus on a particular time period or strength of ridging around GL but more of its tendency to pop up on the op runs in the past week or so.  Certainly well aware of the "poof it's gone" aspect of modeling in the NAO region....which makes it a maddening area to predict.

Ops will jump around but these, imo, show that the tendency is there...for now at least..lol

 

 

[CAPE]

10 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Yeah....I do agree with you here.  I guess my point was not necessarily to focus on a particular time period or strength of ridging around GL but more of its tendency to pop up on the op runs in the past week or so.  Certainly well aware of the "poof it's gone" aspect of modeling in the NAO region....which makes it a maddening area to predict.

Ops will jump around but these, imo, show that the tendency is there...for now at least..lol

  

I am rooting for it lol. Its Nov now, so we have winter in our sights- we will soon get a more definitive idea of how the pattern for the first part of winter will evolve.

[poolz1]

Not a bad look to the gefs at 12z....would be nice to see eps come around to the same idea... Probably a case of the gefs rushing the pattern but it would a fun ride heading into late Nov with that look.

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[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Nice Neg NAO setting up now, I actually worry that this has the opposite effect on the Winter (too early)

[North Balti Zen]

The sub-header to this thread "is an early start a bad sign" probably is not a worry we need to have at this point...

[NorthArlington101]

The sub-header to this thread "is an early start a bad sign" probably is not a worry we need to have at this point...

Anything before January is early for us at this point.

semi /s

[clskinsfan]

6 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Anything before January is early for us at this point.

semi /s

 

Not for all of us. just saying.

[NorthArlington101]

GFS/FV3/GEFS is interesting re: first flakes.

I realize that while off of a massive frontal system tracking through Canada (not sure I described that well) isn't a way to succeed accumulations wise, it is a way to see flakes. Many GEFS members (and the GFS/FV3) show this as a valid opportunity for pity flakage somewhere in the area.

Something I had noticed yesterday was a GEFS max (max as in like .5") in SE VA, and that seems to be because a couple of GEFS members attempt to pop a low on the trailing end of the front, which does up the potential intrigue. Think most of the accumulations in the below map is sleet. 

Another interesting thing that the GFS does this run is have a low run up the coast around Day 12. GEFS supports that a little as well with a few coastals popping up around the day 12-14 range.  

Below is the GEFS, certainly not the strongest signal but you can see low pressure coming from the Gulf up the coast.

I realize the probabilities on everything is low and this is all far away, but I enjoy tracking ghosts.  

 

[psuhoffman]

15 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Not for all of us. just saying.

Even for the places that can do better early like you and me a lot of the nino analogs had bad starts. But most got good after New Years. Don't dispair if we have to wait. 

[showmethesnow]

50 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS/FV3/GEFS is interesting re: first flakes.

I realize that while off of a massive frontal system tracking through Canada (not sure I described that well) isn't a way to succeed accumulations wise, it is a way to see flakes. Many GEFS members (and the GFS/FV3) show this as a valid opportunity for pity flakage somewhere in the area.

Something I had noticed yesterday was a GEFS max (max as in like .5") in SE VA, and that seems to be because a couple of GEFS members attempt to pop a low on the trailing end of the front, which does up the potential intrigue. Think most of the accumulations in the below map is sleet. 

 

Another interesting thing that the GFS does this run is have a low run up the coast around Day 12. GEFS supports that a little as well with a few coastals popping up around the day 12-14 range.  

 

Below is the GEFS, certainly not the strongest signal but you can see low pressure coming from the Gulf up the coast.

 

I realize the probabilities on everything is low and this is all far away, but I enjoy tracking ghosts.  

 

Have been a little interested around the 7-8 and 12-13 day periods as well. 500s are half decent whereas some energy running through might provide first flakes for some. Climo would argue against anything of substance though. 

[nj2va]

40 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Have been a little interested around the 7-8 and 12-13 day periods as well. 500s are half decent whereas some energy running through might provide first flakes for some. Climo would argue against anything of substance though. 

Yeah, somewhat interesting albeit again, mostly from shaking the rust off to prepare for some real winter tracking.  

[Wonderdog]

6z GFS on November 9th has an interesting  look to it with a developing low on the coast and snow pelting areas to our west; Ohio, PA, WV. Now if we could  just  have that storm develop further  south of the mid Atlantic. 

[Bob Chill]

3 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

6z GFS on November 9th has an interesting  look to it with a developing low on the coast and snow pelting areas to our west; Ohio, PA, WV. Now if we could  just  have that storm develop further  south of the mid Atlantic. 

Remember that this time of year models will almost always be too cold in the med/lr. Even a perfect track/evolution is highly likely to still be rain. Not saying it's impossible to snow at any time in Nov but man it takes a lot to go right. Can't be a single flaw to pull it off. 

[mattie g]

I’m loving all these storms that are modeled to develop way down south and ride north. I don’t care so much about track right now, but it’s just great to see the very Nino-like activity of the southern jet.

[WxUSAF]

16 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I’m loving all these storms that are modeled to develop way down south and ride north. I don’t care so much about track right now, but it’s just great to see the very Nino-like activity of the southern jet.

Well said. Keep an active pattern and STJ going and it’s just a matter of time.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Love this for the Winter. Heavy Rain. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

[Chris78]

I know it's low probability but the 12th - 14th time frame looks interesting. Both the GFS and it's twin have had a system pass south of us The past several runs. Alot of cold air around for this early. Definitely low chances but something to watch.