October/November Mid/Long Range Disco

[CAPE]

If it were mid December, it would be hard not to like this h5 look with a surface low headed northbound from eastern GA.

 

[poolz1]

45 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its preseason. Lets start to get this right now so we get the desired result when it actually counts.

If this were winter...last saturday we would have been saying..."the big ones are always sniffed out early".  Models have been pretty much locked onto this for about 6/7 days out and there were rumblings about a big coastal from some mets almost 2 weeks ago.  iirc, 2009 had a few good coastal rainers later in the fall.

[CAPE]

24 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

If this were winter...last saturday we would have been saying..."the big ones are always sniffed out early".  Models have been pretty much locked onto this for about 6/7 days out and there were rumblings about a big coastal from some mets almost 2 weeks ago.  iirc, 2009 had a few good coastal rainers later in the fall.

Yeah good points.

I would feel a bit better if the latest edition of EPS Weeklies had not backed off (from previous runs) on the idea of at least some NA blocking heading into December though lol.

 

[poolz1]

Yeah good points.
I would feel a bit better if the latest edition of EPS Weeklies had not backed off (from previous runs) on the idea of at least some NA blocking heading into December though lol.
 

Yeah, I agree about the weeklies. Seems too familiar having that blue bulls eye planted in Greenland but at the same time a raging -epo. Workable for snow but also systems are frustrating tracking.

On the other hand, a fairly consistent feature on the weeklies is the higher heights in the vicinity of the Kara Sea and at times pushing into almost east based block. Though the cold doesn’t show up as great on the panels...that’s a darn cold pattern starting in late Nov. Winter 18-19 pattern trying to find its place and evolving...a lot to be positive about so far.

[CAPE]

13 hours ago, poolz1 said:

 

Yeah, I agree about the weeklies. Seems too familiar having that blue bulls eye planted in Greenland but at the same time a raging -epo. Workable for snow but also systems are frustrating tracking.

On the other hand, a fairly consistent feature on the weeklies is the higher heights in the vicinity of the Kara Sea and at times pushing into almost east based block. Though the cold doesn’t show up as great on the panels...that’s a darn cold pattern starting in late Nov. Winter 18-19 pattern trying to find its place and evolving...a lot to be positive about so far.

 

Agree. Plenty of positive indications, and having the Pacific side 'friendly' is a big part of the battle. That part looks good across pretty much all guidance. Looks like the AO will range from slightly negative to slightly positive over the coming weeks, and hopefully trend more in the negative direction beyond that. NA blocking will probably develop at some point, maybe more so in the second half of winter.

[aldie 22]

11 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah good points.

I would feel a bit better if the latest edition of EPS Weeklies had not backed off (from previous runs) on the idea of at least some NA blocking heading into December though lol.

 

You forgot the uh oh

[Heisy]

12 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If it were mid December, it would be hard not to like this h5 look with a surface low headed northbound from eastern GA.

 

I didn’t realize the height pattern looked this good. Massive ULL in a great spot to lock in that cold. This would be server crasher if this was December, heck maybe even late Nov.

[frd]

8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I didn’t realize the height pattern looked this good. Massive ULL in a great spot to lock in that cold. This would be server crasher if this was December, heck maybe even late Nov.

Not surprising with the deep NAO crash and  then a rise a HA event. ( maybe )  

Would be funny ( not ) , if this were the last time the NAO went significantly negative until Feb.  I believe this -NAO was brought upon by wave breaking in the Atlantic.   

Still will achieve the QFP needed for a good sign of snow this winter that many hold close by, and of course this is still a good sign that the predominant coastal track this winter may be a reality. 

 

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You forgot the uh oh

Nah that's not part of my shtick.

[frd]

More evidence of a warmer November continues , as the typhoon in the West Pac looks to go West and not recurve as per the overnight EPS , a change from 24 hoursd ago. 

Also,  the weeklies from the JMA looks warmer as we progress through time. 

 

[frd]

In addition to my previous post, there is this from Ventrice, who stated this morning you do not need a recurving typhoon to effect the Northern  Pacific  jet interaction. 

You can still have a jet extension which, as he shows,  causes cyclogenesis and this travels along into the North Pac .  

Not sure the timing or whether it is related , but the over night Euo OP to shows a crazy and pretty powerful piece of energy  at 220.  Maybe this might spawn a powerful storm later .   

 

 

[Chris78]

I would rather have a ridge to start November than at the end. I don't think theres anything wrong to start November AN with temps and then have it snap back by the end of the month when it really counts.

[Yeoman]

I like that rationalization

[showmethesnow]

Liked what I saw at the end of the run for the latest weeklies.

As I have mentioned a couple of times before, though the projected pattern through the early winter isn't hateful by any means it does have one draw back. The models have been saying for awhile now that the PV would basically be located around the pole or even on the other side of the globe. Now at any time of the winter you prefer to see the PV southward on our side of the globe because it allows easier access to the cold. But this is especially true early in winter when you need some extreme negative departures to overcome climo. Now an -NAO can help drive those colder temps south and to lock them in somewhat but so far the NAO hasn't been a major player. Otherwise we are looking at cold shots that are brief in nature without much oomph to them. So though you can't rule something out it will just take some effort/luck to score. The reasoning above is the major factor why I have been leaning more and more on a slow start to winter.

But... I have also felt strongly we would see a great back end to winter and an extended winter at that. The question was when we would see the flip and my thinking has been mid to late December. And the latest run of the weeklies seems to now be seeing that. 

Below we have the end of the weeklies run (Day 39-46). There is a lot to like with this. Let's look first at the location of the PV which is the major hangup earlier in the winter. What we are seeing is the ridging building on the west coast (+PNA) which is extending up towards the pole. This is raising heights over the pole starting to force part of the PV S/SEward into eastern Canada. Now in conjunction with we are seeing ridging building into Greenland (-NAO). Besides the obvious benefit for east coast storms we all know about, it also has another benefit in this case. What it is doing is to help channel the PV more southward then eastward. Without it the +PNA would tend to shove the PV into Greenland where we do not want to see it. Needless to say this is what we want to see in regards to the PV.

Now let's look at the general overall pattern which is moving into a great look. First off, we are seeing are low height anomalies to the southeast of Greenland. These anomalies are normally indicative of surface low pressure and that is exactly what we see. So what makes this important is that as we see the upper latitudes morph we are also seeing these neg departures moving steadily south and eastward towards the 50/50 region. So could we possibly be looking at a 50/50 low shortly which is another key ingredient in east coast storms? Now in the Pacific we are also seeing negative departures off the Aleutians and once again surface low pressure with it. Needless to say.Aleutian lows are one of the important ingredients we look for from the Pacific when it comes to east coast storms (-EPO). Looking in the CONUS looks promising as well. What we are seeing is a positive tilted trough west of the Mississippi as well as confluence running through our region. In this setup systems would have a hard time amplifying prematurely and running to our west. 

All in all, we have pieces already in place and others moving into position that would be a great look for our region. Now besides the obvious question of whether this verifies or not the next question would be will this be the general pattern we see through the winter? I happen to think it will be the rule and not the exception. Besides the usual fluctuations you see through out the winter I think a semblance of this pattern will end up being the default pattern we bounce back into after any relax. Now if we can get a little ENSO loving to help bump up the tropical jet...

 

 

 

 

 

[ravensrule]

Great post showmethesnow.

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Liked what I saw at the end of the run for the latest weeklies.

As I have mentioned a couple of times before, though the projected pattern through the early winter isn't hateful by any means it does have one draw back. The models have been saying for awhile now that the PV would basically be located around the pole or even on the other side of the globe. Now at any time of the winter you prefer to see the PV southward on our side of the globe because it allows easier access to the cold. But this is especially true early in winter when you need some extreme negative departures to overcome climo. Now an -NAO can help drive those colder temps south and to lock them in somewhat but so far the NAO hasn't been a major player. Otherwise we are looking at cold shots that are brief in nature without much oomph to them. So though you can't rule something out it will just take some effort/luck to score. The reasoning above is the major factor why I have been leaning more and more on a slow start to winter.

But... I have also felt strongly we would see a great back end to winter and an extended winter at that. The question was when we would see the flip and my thinking has been mid to late December. And the latest run of the weeklies seems to now be seeing that. 

Below we have the end of the weeklies run (Day 39-46). There is a lot to like with this. Let's look first at the location of the PV which is the major hangup earlier in the winter. What we are seeing is the ridging building on the west coast (+PNA) which is extending up towards the pole. This is raising heights over the pole starting to force part of the PV S/SEward into eastern Canada. Now in conjunction with we are seeing ridging building into Greenland (-NAO). Besides the obvious benefit for east coast storms we all know about, it also has another benefit in this case. What it is doing is to help channel the PV more southward then eastward. Without it the +PNA would tend to shove the PV into Greenland where we do not want to see it. Needless to say this is what we want to see in regards to the PV.

Now let's look at the general overall pattern which is moving into a great look. First off, we are seeing are low height anomalies to the southeast of Greenland. These anomalies are normally indicative of surface low pressure and that is exactly what we see. So what makes this important is that as we see the upper latitudes morph we are also seeing these neg departures moving steadily south and eastward towards the 50/50 region. So could we possibly be looking at a 50/50 low shortly which is another key ingredient in east coast storms? Now in the Pacific we are also seeing negative departures off the Aleutians and once again surface low pressure with it. Needless to say.Aleutian lows are one of the important ingredients we look for from the Pacific when it comes to east coast storms (-EPO). Looking in the CONUS looks promising as well. What we are seeing is a positive tilted trough west of the Mississippi as well as confluence running through our region. In this setup systems would have a hard time amplifying prematurely and running to our west. 

All in all, we have pieces already in place and others moving into position that would be a great look for our region. Now besides the obvious question of whether this verifies or not the next question would be will this be the general pattern we see through the winter? I happen to think it will be the rule and not the exception. Besides the usual fluctuations you see through out the winter I think a semblance of this pattern will end up being the default pattern we bounce back into after any relax. Now if we can get a little ENSO loving to help bump up the tropical jet...

 

 

 

 

 

Great post.  I love what I see in the Pacific.  Where that Aleutian low wants to set up is money.  We have time to get the atlantic right, and even if we don't if the pacific cooperates to the degree it looks like it might, we can do pretty darn good regardless.  

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Great post.  I love what I see in the Pacific.  Where that Aleutian low wants to set up is money.  We have time to get the atlantic right, and even if we don't if the pacific cooperates to the degree it looks like it might, we can do pretty darn good regardless.  

I’m encouraged by seeing an active STJ and storms as we move into November. We’d expect that with a nino and looks like that part is occurring at least.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Great post.  I love what I see in the Pacific.  Where that Aleutian low wants to set up is money.  We have time to get the atlantic right, and even if we don't if the pacific cooperates to the degree it looks like it might, we can do pretty darn good regardless.  

Totally agree. The LR guidance hints at moving in the direction of persistent higher heights in NA, and then backs off. When have we seen this before? But the Pacific side looks like it wants to be our really good friend. Very consistent signal on most guidance. If we get the lower heights camping out near the Aleutians with a EPO ridge and a +PNA, which is generally favored in a Nino, we should do ok. Might have to wait until the second half of winter for any sustained NA blocking. 

[frd]

29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Totally agree. The LR guidance hints at moving in the direction of persistent higher heights in NA, and then backs off. When have we seen this before? But the Pacific side looks like it wants to be our really good friend. Very consistent signal on most guidance. If we get the lower heights camping out near the Aleutians with a EPO ridge and a +PNA, which is generally favored in a Nino, we should do ok. Might have to wait until the second half of winter for any sustained NA blocking. 

I rather have a great Pac than a good Atlantic side any day.  I love seeing the storms too and the active  STJ.  The table is being set.    

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, frd said:

I rather have a great Pac than a good Atlantic side any day.  I love seeing the storms too and the active  STJ.  The table is being set.    

Its rarely a binary deal in this area though. Totally PAC driven patterns can be fun, but it's hard to get a cold trough to lock in without at least some help in the NA- cold shots tend to be more transient, storm tracks can be iffy, and require better timing. In general, I prefer to have a favorable NA.

[frd]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its rarely a binary deal in this area though. Hard to get a cold trough to lock in without at least some help in the NA- cold shots tend to be more transient, and storm tracks can be iffy, and require better timing. In general, I prefer to have a favorable NA.

We have had many times over the years a good a great NAO domain only to be left cold and dry. Or,  the storm track to our South . Or simply, a stormless backdrop. 

To clarify my previous post I mean I prefer a - EPO +PNA and hopes for the active STJ. 

I agree with you though,  you do need help here in NAO domain and the right combo of Pac and Atl can lead to our best snowfall events.  

 

[CAPE]

40 minutes ago, frd said:

We have had many times over the years a good a great NAO domain only to be left cold and dry. Or,  the storm track to our South . Or simply, a stormless backdrop. 

To clarify my previous post I mean I prefer a - EPO +PNA and hopes for the active STJ. 

I agree with you though,  you do need help here in NAO domain and the right combo of Pac and Atl can lead to our best snowfall events.  

 

Yeah but this has become pretty rare lately. My brother in central NC can attest to that. For us folks on the coastal pain especially, a stout west based -NAO is going to be a favorable attribute more times than not. We generally don't do well with northern/inland tracks and 'front end thumps'. As for cold and dry- it has much more to do with other factors than a NA block. If we are to accept this winter will be a weak/moderate Nino, an active STJ should not be a problem. All signs point to a favorable E/NPAC atm. The AO/NAO phase remains an unknown at this point. It seems the best guess is the AO will be predominately neutral to slightly negative. NAO is much more difficult to predict at long leads.

[frd]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah but this has become pretty rare lately. My brother in central NC can attest to that. For us folks on the coastal pain especially, a stout west based -NAO is going to be a favorable attribute more times than not. We generally don't do well with northern/inland tracks and 'front end thumps'. As for cold and dry- it has much more to do with other factors than a NA block. If we are to accept this winter will be a weak/moderate Nino, an active STJ should not be a problem. All signs point to a favorable E/NPAC atm. The AO/NAO phase remains an unknown at this point. It seems the best guess is the AO will be neutral to slightly negative. NAO is much more difficult to predict at long leads.

Yeah, all true.  I am waiting for the day when a breakthrough will be made that can foresee the dominant NAO phase for the season ahead.  I believe last year Isotherm did well with that , I have not heard from him posting recently.  

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Yeah, all true.  I am waiting for the day when a breakthrough will be made that can foresee the dominant NAO phase for the season ahead.  I believe last year Isotherm did well with that , I have not heard from him posting recently.  

Yeah I don't have a clue, other than to expect a +NAO most of the time and be shocked otherwise lol. I know we are at/approaching a solar min, and the QBO is negative, but last month it took a big jump towards neutral, implying we are headed towards positive territory during winter. That is not a good sign for a developing -NAO from everything I have read. Although looking at the numbers, it seems a +NAO predominates regardless of the QBO phase/trend much of the time. So I am not sure if there is even a decent correlation there.

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its rarely a binary deal in this area though. Totally PAC driven patterns can be fun, but it's hard to get a cold trough to lock in without at least some help in the NA- cold shots tend to be more transient, storm tracks can be iffy, and require better timing. In general, I prefer to have a favorable NA.

Not to mention that if we don't see blocking over Greenland it is even that much more important to have the pv rotate down. Otherwise we would most likely be fighting SE ridging and systems running through or to the west of our region..

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Not to mention that if we don't see blocking over Greenland it is even that more important to have the pv rotate down. Otherwise we would most likely be fighting SE ridging and systems running through or to the west of our region..

Yup. Timing becomes much more critical. I love a persistent block with a cold trough forced underneath, and an active STJ. We can literally just wait..

[frd]

10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I don't have a clue, other than to expect a +NAO most of the time and be shocked otherwise lol. I know we are at/approaching a solar min, and the QBO is negative, but last month it took a big jump towards neutral, implying we are headed towards positive territory during winter. That is not a good sign for a developing -NAO from everything I have read. Although looking at the numbers, it seems a +NAO predominates regardless of the QBO phase/trend much of the time. So I am not sure if there is even a decent correlation there.

I thought DT stated once that as the QBOlong as it is close to + or - 15 is was fine, but I have to dig up his research . 

I agree though,  Easterly I thought was better . 

Maybe some of the deal too is the Atlantic AMO, some saying it is going to a cold AMO , those SSTs up there are a bit chilly. 

 

[CAPE]

15 hours ago, frd said:

I thought DT stated once that as long as it is close to + or - 15 is was fine, but I have to dig up his research . 

I have seen "his research", but not sure I buy it. Maybe later I will search for the data I saw which made the case that the QBO might not be a significant indicator for the NAO phase.

eta- I seem to recall DT also focusing on the rate of change, as well as the values being fairly close to neutral, or maybe I am remembering that wrong and that part was from some other source.

[showmethesnow]

21 minutes ago, frd said:

I thought DT stated once that as long as it is close to + or - 15 is was fine, but I have to dig up his research . 

Never really thought about it until you brought this up. We are so locked into the thought that we need to see a -NAO value to work but that isn't necessarily the case all the time. With the NAO it isn't the strength of the ridging we see but more so the placement. So you can have weak ridging in only a small portion of the NAO domain giving us a +NAO and yet the placement of that ridging gives us the blocking required anyway. So yeah, I can see a weak + value still working. On the other hand a strong - value also means the pattern is probably being overwhelmed and we are dealing with suppression city. So I can see where DT is coming from.

eta: My bad, thought you were referring to the NAO. Now I see it was the QBO. Which makes sense considering I just saw the indice values you threw out there. I still think my statement has merit though.  

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Never really thought about it until you brought this up. We are so locked into the thought that we need to see a -NAO value to work but that isn't necessarily the case all the time. With the NAO it isn't the strength of the ridging we see but more so the placement. So you can have weak ridging in only a small portion of the NAO domain giving us a +NAO and yet the placement of that ridging gives us the blocking required anyway. So yeah, I can see a weak + value still working. On the other hand a strong - value also means the pattern is probably being overwhelmed and we are dealing with suppression city. So I can see where DT is coming from.

I never worry about suppression with a -NAO(aka block). If I were in NE, maybe. I will take my chances every time with NA ridging in place. We had a textbook west based -NAO as I recall in 2016, and our big storm still tracked close enough to the coast to dry slot many areas along and east of I-95. Leading up to the 3 big storms in 2009-10 we had great blocking, and storm tracks were ideal for this region. Of course ENSO has a lot to do with that as well- we will almost always get screwed in the MA in a Nina winter, regardless of the NAO phase lol.