Ji Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 What I love about the look now is that if the advertised pattern comes to fruition heading into December we can probably eliminate the bust analog years. The few duds all had a craptastic look early season. Some years recovered after New Years. Some didn't. But all the years that had even a somewhat favorable period early in the season went on to be blockbuster winters. I think jb #1 analog is 2002-03 and we has a good dec including white chrismas eve and Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What I love about the look now is that if the advertised pattern comes to fruition heading into December we can probably eliminate the bust analog years. The few duds all had a craptastic look early season. Some years recovered after New Years. Some didn't. But all the years that had even a somewhat favorable period early in the season went on to be blockbuster winters. Yes, very intriguing... Dec 02 & 09 had early blocking. A nino with Dec blocking is the perfect recipe for a shot at front and back loaded winter. Seasonal guidance is gung ho for Feb being good and it's logical for nino climo. Dec never looked that good until recently. Most recent euro and jma seasonals jumped on a great Dec look. Now we're seeing that come into focus with ens guidance... heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 31 minutes ago, Ji said: 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What I love about the look now is that if the advertised pattern comes to fruition heading into December we can probably eliminate the bust analog years. The few duds all had a craptastic look early season. Some years recovered after New Years. Some didn't. But all the years that had even a somewhat favorable period early in the season went on to be blockbuster winters. I think jb #1 analog is 2002-03 and we has a good dec including white chrismas eve and Christmas 95-96 is top analog because of precip and snow/icecover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Our "sweet spot" with a nearly ideal h5 pattern(based on current guidance) for the front end of 'winter' might be from around the 25th of Nov through maybe mid Dec. Beyond that there could very well be a relaxation in the -AO/NAO, although a favorable EPO/PNA could become the dominant driver and maybe, just maybe, we might not have to endure a significant pattern relaxation. All signs currently point to the last third of winter being potentially blockbuster with reestablishment of NA blocking and Nino in full swing. So in general, we might be looking at a mini-me version of 2009-10, with some possible relaxation late Dec into mid Jan, then things get cranking again for Feb and perhaps into March. If it plays out something like that, I think most of us will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 The next good period for snow is probably first week of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: The next good period for snow is probably first week of December Wonder if the pattern of the MJO continues like it has, meaning it skips the warmest phases and instead heads back to the COD andf then reappears and then exits in the more favorable colder phases. I think it does. Also the SST pattern is unchanged West of Aussie so hoping it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I love this look. Such a pretty view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I forgot Allen, RaleighWx, went with a warmer December call in his Winter seasonal, he sent this out earlier : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 @frd Split stream looks so good in that picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 GEFS in the long range is ring around the rosy. Ditto, best pattern I've seen since December 2009. Maybe even better. I remember that snowstorm, I had just graduated high school across the Chessy bay before I moved here... Snow was hella deep shoveling, and I wore a Hawaii-theme short sleeve shirt shoveling snow for fun...good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Think we are now seeing a distinct window opening up for a possible winter storm (climo and temps permitting of course). Am really starting to like the roughly day 9/10 period. Strengthening signal in this time period on the GEFS but the EPS is pretty much playing at Dr No. But even on the EPS I think there are some hints starting to pop up. GEFS has IMO handled the ongoing pattern shift much better then the EPS so I am going to ride the horse which got us here and lean heavily in its favor. Don't even think that is the end of our chances to boot. I really like what I am seeing with the patterns potential almost immediately after the possible day 9 storm. Pretty much an open window throughout the long range where I would not be surprised if we could sneak in another storm if not 2 (Again, climo and temps permitting). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Think we are now seeing a distinct window opening up for a possible winter storm (climo and temps permitting of course). Am really starting to like the roughly day 9/10 period. Strengthening signal in this time period on the GEFS but the EPS is pretty much playing at Dr No. But even on the EPS I think there are some hints starting to pop up. GEFS has IMO handled the ongoing pattern shift much better then the EPS so I am going to ride the horse which got us here and lean heavily in its favor. Don't even think that is the end of our chances to boot. I really like what I am seeing with the patterns potential almost immediately after the possible day 9 storm. Pretty much an open window throughout the long range where I would not be surprised if we could sneak in another storm if not 2 (Again, climo and temps permitting). Just came on here to post this...seems like a bit of agreement in the lr between the gefs and eps for something around D13. Out there in time so it's not robust but, as you said, possibly another window to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Just came on here to post this...seems like a bit of agreement in the lr between the gefs and eps for something around D13. Out there in time so it's not robust but, as you said, possibly another window to keep an eye on. I did see that as well. If we do get a potential coastal during the 9-10 frame though chances are it would change the dynamics of the pattern somewhat afterwards so we would probably see that potential possibly shifting around somewhat. No storm day 9-10 then that specific window would certainly be of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Looking at very late November a significant arctic air mass is building over the NW territories , the Yukon, etc. High pressure building there up to 1055mb Also strong High over Greenland, seems to have retrograded at over 1050mb, maybe more. The EPS has trended stronger too with the NAO block as well. This is happening along with a robust STJ in the background. Early December has promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, frd said: Looking at very late November a significant arctic air mass is building over the NW territories , the Yukon, etc. High pressure building there up to 1055mb Also strong High over Greenland, seems to have retrograded at over 1050mb, maybe more. The EPS has trended stronger too with the NAO block as well. This is happening along with a robust STJ in the background. Early December has promise. Not that I expect the same outcome but I think we all know what we're thinking....Sig possibility of something anomalous The advertised pattern coming up, if correct, has a better pac to work with...The other difference I guess would be the SW. To be honest I dont know how the forecasted trough in the SW could change things if at all? Do you or someone else know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Not that I expect the same outcome but I think we all know what we're thinking....Sig possibility of something anomalous The advertised pattern coming up, if correct, has a better pac to work with...The other difference I guess would be the SW. To be honest I dont know how the forecasted trough in the SW could change things if at all? Do you or someone else know? Well, I am not sure about that maybe psu knows , but Eric is excited..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Snow cover, and SAI, the next week to two weeks - still gaining rapidly and adding depth up North. Asia and Europe too Continuing the trends from October 20 th At this rate snow cover is promoting cold and pushing the boundaries South in time. This opens the door to deep arctic cross polar flow in time if things line up correctly see here : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 CFS locking in , ha ha , that is funny :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 45 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Not that I expect the same outcome but I think we all know what we're thinking....Sig possibility of something anomalous The advertised pattern coming up, if correct, has a better pac to work with...The other difference I guess would be the SW. To be honest I dont know how the forecasted trough in the SW could change things if at all? Do you or someone else know? Generally speaking with a South West trough and a +PNA over-cutting it you are looking at a split flow supplying moisture and cold to our region. Not to mention possible phasing of the Northern Stream and Southern Streams in a prime location for our region. With that blocking over-top when that trough and energy decides to eject you can sometimes get a big storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Heh... @showmethesnow mentioned the D7-11 window. The GFS looks mighty interesting at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Generally speaking with a South West trough and a +PNA over-cutting it you are looking at a split flow supplying moisture and cold to our region. Not to mention possible phasing of the Northern Stream and Southern Streams in a prime location for our region. With that blocking over-top when that trough and energy decides to eject you can sometimes get a big storm as well. Thanks...much appreciated...It will be interesting to see tonight how the weeklies try to roll this pattern forward in week 3/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Thanks...much appreciated...It will be interesting to see tonight how the weeklies try to roll this pattern forward in week 3/4. Are the weeklies generated by the 0 run last night ? If so they should be better than Monday's, as the overnight EPS improved the NAO block and progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 The 0z Euro last night has an awesome look at Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 41 minutes ago, frd said: Are the weeklies generated by the 0 run last night ? If so they should be better than Monday's, as the overnight EPS improved the NAO block and progression. Yes they are.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Yes they are.... Thanks , looking forward to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 GEFS is spectacular. That’s all. Shouldn’t be too long before we have more threats to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS is spectacular. That’s all. Shouldn’t be too long before we have more threats to track. Picking up on 2 possible precip events with a southern track. One between d10-12 and another d14+. Shouldn't be long before ops start tossing fantasy storms on the regular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS is spectacular. That’s all. Shouldn’t be too long before we have more threats to track. Heard the GEFS is beatiing the pants out of the EPS in the other forum. We saw that here too, when we talked about the higher lattitude blocking the GEFS had but not so much the EPS Did you see that maybe the AO and the NAO both might go down to - 4 or more ? Crazy , The Day After Tomorrow is coming soon :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS is spectacular. That’s all. Shouldn’t be too long before we have more threats to track. 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Picking up on 2 possible precip events with a southern track. One between d10-12 and another d14+. Shouldn't be long before ops start tossing fantasy storms on the regular. It's an amazing look. We will have threats in that pattern for sure. I wonder if some are rushing it though. The storms in the 8-14 day will likely get forced under us and you never know but it's also possible there won't be enough cold to work with yet as the pattern gets established. Not saying they can't work but I won't be upset if we have to wait. Climo gets less and less hostile every day also. But the best window might be after what were seeing now as such a pattern pulses and relaxes or ultimately breaks down. (Before the reload of course). Won't stop Ji from cancelling winter anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Unreal that this is Mid November and already beats last year. Want to keep expectations in check with climo, but things are sounding amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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