frd Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Yeah BABY !!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Both the AO and the NAO forecast to go negative almost in time for the beginning of snow season. I take and run. Some members have it diving to record low levels and is big news for a cold December. The only thing missing is the PNA, which is currently negative and looks to slowly move towards neutral or maybe slightly positive Edit: Click to refresh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Another encouraging point is that the bias between the forecast and observed NAO has been near zero since the beginning of November. Last winter the forecast NAO had a low bias of 0.5 to 1.0 units at the 10-14 day time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 More good news for December. Seems the PV will continue to be disrupted and displaced. This fits the theme of @Isotherm and his outlook. Maybe in December we get the Holy Grail pattern, if the NAO does retrograde into Davis Straits block without interference and the PAC improves further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 2 hours ago, dallen7908 said: Another encouraging point is that the bias between the forecast and observed NAO has been near zero since the beginning of November. Last winter the forecast NAO had a low bias of 0.5 to 1.0 units at the 10-14 day time frame. It would be weird to see that happen without Stratospheric warming, the evolution looks abnormal. If it verifies it's probably because the Pacific is different as a driver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 21 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It would be weird to see that happen without Stratospheric warming, the evolution looks abnormal. If it verifies it's probably because the Pacific is different as a driver. We can and have had many -AO/NAO periods without a SSWE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Not from East to West in the last 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 I dare say models are overdoing this without Stratospheric warming I've seen it before, the Scandinavian ridge November leads to a -NAO January/February after a +NAO December. This roll forward method jumps way far in advance at day 11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Different beginnings, similiar outcomes is my opinion possibly. I am wondering whether we get snow and cold in December but for reasons not similiar to 2009. As HM states no real sense comparing to 2009, he states looking at 10 mb how unique that year, well, I mean that November was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 5 hours ago, JakkelWx said: Both the AO and the NAO forecast to go negative almost in time for the beginning of snow season. I take and run. Some members have it diving to record low levels and is big news for a cold December. The only thing missing is the PNA, which is currently negative and looks to slowly move towards neutral or maybe slightly positive Edit: Click to refresh Calling @Bob Chill re: the AO forecast above. We’re looking at an average forecast of a bit below -2SD as we head into December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 6 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Know it is hard to bet against the Euro but in this case I wonder. It seems to me that the GEFS has generally had a better handle on the Scandinavian ridging as well as the PNA/EPO on both strength in placement in the longer range when it comes to verification at shorter ranges. Though I did look back a touch to verify this belief this is mostly going off memory so I could be wrong. Truth be told, what we will probably end up with is a compromise of the quicker GFS solution and the delayed Euro. All I know is that I think it isn't a matter of 'If" but 'When" for us to see what I think will be a great pattern. Looks like the 12z EPS wants to crash the -NAO party. Much more emphatic than recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 EPS certainly taking a step toward the gefs in the LR. Scan ridge poking into GL now and Aleutian low further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Too slow on the keyboard! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Looks like the 12z EPS wants to crash the -NAO party. Much more emphatic than recent runs. That's funny you mentioned that. Was just looking at that. Eps is starting to go to town with the NAO. Also seeing improvement in the Pacific/west coast as well with the PNA/EPO/WPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Just now, poolz1 said: Too slow on the keyboard! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: That's funny you mentioned that. Was just looking at that. Eps is starting to go to town with the NAO. Also seeing improvement in the Pacific/west coast as well with the PNA/EPO/WPO. Yup. The end of Nov into early December could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yup. The end of Nov into early December could be interesting. When do you ever say in these parts things got better for us , or the EPS were not cold ENOUGH , ha ha , lovin it !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yup. The end of Nov into early December could be interesting. Going by the long range GEFS I would think roughly day 11 onward is pretty much game on. And that precludes the possible storm this Thursday as well as possible quick hitting northern stream systems day 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Euro/EPS has been sucking wind with the Pac for several weeks now. GFS/GEFS had a better handle for sure on that side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro/EPS has been sucking wind with the Pac for several weeks now. GFS/GEFS had a better handle for sure on that side of things. I really seem to think at times the GEFS does better at the higher latts (ie blocking ) I swear I recall @Bob Chill saying that, If wrong apologies to Bob :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Whatever happens this winter, we need a real poster to star the storm threads. I nominate that we only let @Bob ChiII or @WxUSAF start them. EDIT: adding @stormtracker, @Ian, and @mappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Whatever happens this winter, we need a real poster to star the storm threads. I nominate that we only let @Bob ChiII or @WxUSAF start them. psu, mappy, and Ji..they are also solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: psu, mappy, and Ji..they are also solid. along with @showmethesnow and @nj2va and @stormtracker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: along with @showmethesnow and @nj2va and @stormtracker And you..our favorite play by play guy. Seriously you are the best at calling the frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: And you..our favorite play by play guy. Seriously you are the best at calling the frames Well I dunno about that lol... there are some better posters mentioned above that do better justice than I do... I just like to quick post and say "998 mb SE NC at 102" They provide the detail and nitty gritty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 I only start sloppy flooding rainstorm threads... No one likes them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 2 hours ago, frd said: I really seem to think at times the GEFS does better at the higher latts (ie blocking ) I swear I recall @Bob Chill saying that, If wrong apologies to Bob :-) GEFS will usually be the first to show a change in the LR. Meaning, if all ensembles are showing a +AO (or NAO/EPO etc) in the d10-15 range the GEFS will normally be first to show it breaking down. It's happening right now right? GEFS started showing the shift towards a *potential* -NAO 3 days ago and finally today the EPS made a noticeable move towards it. That happens more often than GEFS bashers want to admit (cough cough DT cough cough) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Whatever happens this winter, we need a real poster to star the storm threads. I nominate that we only let @Bob ChiII or @WxUSAF start them. EDIT: adding @stormtracker, @Ian, and @mappy Ian? Someone who makes 3 posts a year now? Might as well have stormtrackerRandy start them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS will usually be the first to show a change in the LR. Meaning, if all ensembles are showing a +AO (or NAO/EPO etc) in the d10-15 range the GEFS will normally be first to show it breaking down. It's happening right now right? GEFS started showing the shift towards a *potential* -NAO 3 days ago and finally today the EPS made a noticeable move towards it. That happens more often than GEFS bashers want to admit (cough cough DT cough cough) Thanks Bob, I hope we see the GEFS lead the way again all winter with this kind of stuff, KUDOS to the GEFS ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 3 hours ago, yoda said: Well I dunno about that lol... there are some better posters mentioned above that do better justice than I do... I just like to quick post and say "998 mb SE NC at 102" They provide the detail and nitty gritty Or DC CRUSHED at 102...personal favorite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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