October/November Mid/Long Range Disco

[frd]

Seems later in the month there is pressure on the PV from both the Atlantic and Pac sides, certainly no blue ball up there. 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

Isotherm's winter outlook is out. Y'all might like it.

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I don't know, the Scandinavian ridge isn't a good sign. 

[frd]

16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Isotherm's winter outlook is out. Y'all might like it.

 

Thank you , thank you :-)  Been waiting on his outlook for a long time. I feel he does a very good job. 

I LOVE THIS !!!!  ( from his outlook )

The sub-tropical jet (STJ) should become active with wetter than normal and snowier than normal conditions. Most of the Northeast corridor will have the first real chance of a white Christmas in almost a decade.

 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

Just now, frd said:

Thank you , thank you :-)  Been waiting his for a long time. I feel he does a very good job. 

I LOVE THIS !!!!  ( from his outlook )

The sub-tropical jet (STJ) should become active with wetter than normal and snowier than normal conditions. Most of the Northeast corridor will have the first real chance of a white Christmas in almost a decade.

 

 

 

 

#14 in his methodology section is my favorite part. I was like 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

#14 in his methodology section is my favorite part. I was like 

Me too !!

[psuhoffman]

@showmethesnow@C.A.P.E.@Bob Chill@WxUSAF

I feel like we're all on the same page. I love what I'm seeing.  Pacific sst strongly argues against a hostile epo pna lasting much of the winter. The PV seems to be having trouble sustaining itself and looks to continue to be bullied around by waves and everytime we get a trough storms want to come up the coast.  The scan ridge typically precedes blocking periods and this is the time we want that to set up.  The mjo seems to want to keep circling the phases we want.  The table is definitely set with all the ingredients here imo. So far there is no UH OH showing up.  I'm as optimistic as I've been since 2014-15 in our chances for above normal snowfall. 

[frd]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

#14 in his methodology section is my favorite part. I was like 

As for this I am surprised. i thought maybe this winter the odds were increased. ( see the quote below from his outlook ) 

Plus the SSWE last Feb caused the cold and snowy March, right ? 

" In light of the combination of factors discussed, tropospheric blocking will be greater than normal, but I anticipate that there will not be a technical sudden stratospheric warming event in the meteorological winter. However, this will be immaterial insofar as the impact on the tropospheric sensible weather pattern."

 

 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, frd said:

As for this I am surprised. i thought maybe this winter the odds were increased. ( see the quote below from his outlook ) 

Plus the SSWE last Feb caused the cold and snowy March, right ? 

" In light of the combination of factors discussed, tropospheric blocking will be greater than normal, but I anticipate that there will not be a technical sudden stratospheric warming event in the meteorological winter. However, this will be immaterial insofar as the impact on the tropospheric sensible weather pattern."

 

 

Frankly if we have a winter void of SSWE talk it's probably a good sign!!!

[frd]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Frankly if we have a winter void of SSWE talk it's probably a good sign!!!

Ha Ha Yeah, I can live with his forecast and no strat talk. Basically, he states it is not needed for the outcomes he is forecastng. I was simply curious.  

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

2011/2014 had a Scandinavian ridge in November.

Last year the WAR was +30% of normal at 850mb making it the strongest on record. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

Ha Ha Yeah, I can live with his forecast and no strat talk. Basically, he states it is not needed for the outcomes he is forecastng. I was simply curious.  

Problem with sswe is we have very little ability to predict it and it doesn't even always correlate to blocking and cold where we need it. So is a lot of talk often for no results. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

2011/2014 had a Scandinavian ridge in November.

2003 too

2 of those seasons weren't remotely like this year. And the one left is a small sample size. Plus things turned out fine that year. One month is also too small a time scale to judge a winter pattern. Don't confuse correlation with causation. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

+NAO is the cause, 6 years in a row unless something changes. 

Edit: notice the strongest anomalies at 50N, that doesn't happen unless roll-forward. 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Problem with sswe is we have very little ability to predict it and it doesn't even always correlate to blocking and cold where we need it. So is a lot of talk often for no results. 

True, as you know many times the colder outcomes go towards Europe or even Siberia. We hardly ever get lucky with them. A fickle beast. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

You'd expect a Stratosphere warming to be associated with this. No Strat warming, probably +NAO

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

You'd expect a Stratosphere warming to be associated with this. No Strat warming, probably +NAO

Maybe you should step away from the keyboard for a little while.  

[Bob Chill]

48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@showmethesnow@C.A.P.E.@Bob Chill@WxUSAF

I feel like we're all on the same page. I love what I'm seeing.  Pacific sst strongly argues against a hostile epo pna lasting much of the winter. The PV seems to be having trouble sustaining itself and looks to continue to be bullied around by waves and everytime we get a trough storms want to come up the coast.  The scan ridge typically precedes blocking periods and this is the time we want that to set up.  The mjo seems to want to keep circling the phases we want.  The table is definitely set with all the ingredients here imo. So far there is no UH OH showing up.  I'm as optimistic as I've been since 2014-15 in our chances for above normal snowfall. 

I like everything too. I really like the gefs NH pattern late in the runs last couple days. Starting to look like a pretty classic active STJ with blocking building. Not that I'm expecting snow to close the month or anything but it's very close to becoming a winter pattern that can snow here. If a legit -ao comes into focus to close out Nov then I think it would practically seal the deal that this winter won't suck. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Sure enough.. the Euro intensifies the Scandinavian ridge to WAR, +NAO

(I once plotted every major Northern Hemisphere 500mb anomaly since 1948)

[Maestrobjwa]

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe you should step away from the keyboard for a little while.  

His posts confuse me sometimes because they seem kinda random...what is he referring to here?

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

His posts confuse me sometimes because they seem kinda random...what is he referring to here?

He is implying the scandanavian ridge will retrograde into a WAR and lead to a positive nao. And he is cherry picking a few years to support it. But I've seen data that suggests a scan ridge actually correlates to a -nao following it overall. Maybe he is right but I'm not worried over a few cherry picked examples some of which have nothing in common with this year. 

[dmillz25]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

He is implying the scandanavian ridge will retrograde into a WAR and lead to a positive nao. And he is cherry picking a few years to support it. But I've seen data that suggests a scan ridge actually correlates to a -nao following it overall. Maybe he is right but I'm not worried over a few cherry picked examples some of which have nothing in common with this year. 

A scandi ridge retrogrades into the nao region. He’s bugging out with that one

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I like everything too. I really like the gefs NH pattern late in the runs last couple days. Starting to look like a pretty classic active STJ with blocking building. Not that I'm expecting snow to close the month or anything but it's very close to becoming a winter pattern that can snow here. If a legit -ao comes into focus to close out Nov then I think it would practically seal the deal that this winter won't suck. 

I concur. I am probably too confident on the PAC side, but I just cant see anything there ending up being a persistent thorn in our side. Like you, my focus has been on the AO, and based on where we are currently and the direction things seem to be heading on recent ensemble runs, I am feeling pretty good about it right now. And as you said, it has been a while since we had a -AO that developed early in winter and was a persistent feature. Hopefully we can reverse that trend. The other thing is, we have time. The GEFS may very well be rushing things, but the goal is to have a favorable pattern a month from now. Climo is hostile for snow chances for most of us for a few more weeks, and I have no expectations for frozen in my yard anytime soon, despite what an op run may spit out. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

5 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

A scandi ridge retrogrades into the nao region. He’s bugging out with that one

If there's a Stratospheric warming.

[WxUSAF]

Heh...I find it interesting, and encouraging, that our warm up keeps getting muted/delayed.  Was looking like next weekend, which now has a major arctic blast.  Then was looking like around Thanksgiving, and now 18z GFS has a wicked cold shot on Thanksgiving.  10 days out so normal caveats apply, but 18z GEFS is BN through 384.  It's all a response to the now forecast -AO/-NAO.  

Bring

it

on

 

[CAPE]

GEFS is still down with the HL blocking. This is an intriguing look.

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

GEFS is still down with the HL blocking. This is an intriguing look.

Intriguing is an understatement. Something running in the southern stream and it is probably game on. Not to mention if there happens to be something coming down in the northern stream with what looks to be a split flow.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Intriguing is an understatement. Something running in the southern stream and it is probably game on. Not to mention if there happens to be something coming down in the northern stream with what looks to be a split flow.

Yeah that type of set up would work nicely here, Just get a piece of energy ejecting eastward underneath that ridge- that could yield an early season moderate winter event for the MA.

I still have a feeling the GEFS is moving things along too quickly up top. EPS is more hesitant to build heights into the NAO domain in the LR, and it will probably end up being more correct. We will have to keep monitoring the trends. But yeah, give me that GEFS panel in mid December.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah that type of set up would work nicely here, Just get a piece of energy ejecting eastward underneath that ridge- that could yield an early season moderate winter event for the MA.

I still have a feeling the GEFS is moving things along too quickly up top. EPS is more hesitant to build heights into the NAO domain in the LR, and it will probably end up being more correct. We will have to keep monitoring the trends. But yeah, give me that GEFS panel in mid December.

Know it is hard to bet against the Euro but in this case I wonder. It seems to me that the GEFS has generally had a better handle on the Scandinavian ridging as well as the PNA/EPO on both strength in placement in the longer range when it comes to verification at shorter ranges. Though I did look back a touch to verify this belief this is mostly going off memory so I could be wrong. Truth be told, what we will probably end up with is a compromise of the quicker GFS solution and the delayed Euro. All I know is that I think it isn't a matter of 'If" but 'When" for us to see what I think will be a great pattern.

[frd]

35 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Know it is hard to bet against the Euro but in this case I wonder. It seems to me that the GEFS has generally had a better handle on the Scandinavian ridging as well as the PNA/EPO on both strength in placement in the longer range when it comes to verification at shorter ranges. Though I did look back a touch to verify this belief this is mostly going off memory so I could be wrong. Truth be told, what we will probably end up with is a compromise of the quicker GFS solution and the delayed Euro. All I know is that I think it isn't a matter of 'If" but 'When" for us to see what I think will be a great pattern.

Did not last winter at times the GEFS did do well forecasting these things ?

If that block retrogrades like that to the Davis Straights its money time. I believe at hour 144 it is forecasted to be 588 meters, wow. I think I posted last week about the record warmth above the surface targeted for Finland and Scandanavia. Coming true into a monster block. 

Granted this has been a feature there too over the summer as well. Just not as strong.