WxUSAF Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Saw the D15 EPS from last night. Certainly seems to be evolving in a decent direction. Since tonight’s weeklies initialize off that, it will be interesting if our extrapolation is correct. Combined with MJO forcing, seems things could get favorable sometime in early December. No way to know how transient a good pattern will be though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Saw the D15 EPS from last night. Certainly seems to be evolving in a decent direction. Since tonight’s weeklies initialize off that, it will be interesting if our extrapolation is correct. Combined with MJO forcing, seems things could get favorable sometime in early December. No way to know how transient a good pattern will be though. Oh, you mean like, for December 5th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 I'm hugging Tony Pann's stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Quick run down on some of the major features on the overnight runs. GEFS is holding strong with the idea of a -NAO in the long range. Starts building roughly day 12 and looks to have some staying power. If we see that break the 10 day and especially the 7 day marker on future runs we can probably start believing it is the real deal. It is also trying hard to flip the +EPO in the longer range as the ridging over the Aleutions is migrating eastward. Also seeing a migration southward of the neg pressure anomalies towards the waters off of central/southern California. Possible cutoff low off the coast in our future? I believe that is a common feature seen during Ninos but correct me if I am wrong. GEFS also is setting up what looks to be somewhat stable low pressure in the Aluetians though at this point it is maybe a little to far north and west for our tastes. EPS is jumping on the -NAO bandwagon as well. We are seeing an -NAO getting established as ridging begins building into Greenland roughly day 12. Also seeing an attempt to flip the +EPO as we seeing the Aleution ridging moving eastward as well. Also seeing some hints of a possible cutoff off the California coast. And the EPS is pretty much in lock step with the GEFS in regards to low pressure being established in the Aluetian Islands region. All in all the runs were very favorable with the possible changes they are picking up on in the extended. I think guidance might be rushing the evolution of the pattern a little but I agree in the direction. Towards the end it's moving towards establishing the exact pattern features we would expect if this is going the way of past favorable modoki nino years. I really don't care about snow threats until we get into December and we have a more legit chance anyways. A great pattern before then probably gets wasted anyways. But I'm not seeing the kinds of things that could set up this time of year that are a bad omen. I'm content to let this percolate and evolve the way it's going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Deep Thunder lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Deep Thunder lol Thunder, feel the thunder Tony Pann with the thunder th th thunder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think guidance might be rushing the evolution of the pattern a little but I agree in the direction. Towards the end it's moving towards establishing the exact pattern features we would expect if this is going the way of past favorable modoki nino years. I really don't care about snow threats until we get into December and we have a more legit chance anyways. A great pattern before then probably gets wasted anyways. But I'm not seeing the kinds of things that could set up this time of year that are a bad omen. I'm content to let this percolate and evolve the way it's going. Exactly. Let things develop through the next 30 days so around the 10th we could have a legit chance at a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Deep Thunder lol That name is a deep blunder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Watson can do a lot of things, but I'm not sure weather is one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Looking at models trends for the last 2 days, Atlantic ridge always trends stronger. Big wet pattern coming up for the Mid Atlantic this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Thunder, feel the thunder Tony Pann with the thunder th th thunder! What happened to credibility and integrity??? ...crap I'm missing that history channel documentary about the illuminati and aliens at the first thanksgiving!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 12z GFS thinks next week's storm is a little slower up the coast and a bit deeper. Also showed a couple of wet snow flakes at the end but just over Gainesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Brrrrr......... Hat.... check Gloves...check ....... Chap Stick ......big check Sled...... not yet :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 An odd evolution that’s bound to change but the euro has a wintry system D7/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: An odd evolution that’s bound to change but the euro has a wintry system D7/8 Don’t look at the Kuchera map . In all seriousness, definitely will not evolve as depicted.. but something to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: An odd evolution that’s bound to change but the euro has a wintry system D7/8 All the guidance is swinging some upper energy through the trough behind the Tuesday system. It's worth keeping an eye on. Obviously everything this time of year is a long shot. Still I'm loving seeing the repetitive idea of systems up the east coast everytime we get a trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 CMC has a similar idea to the EURO but no cigar. Low gets shoved due west. EPS coming out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Interesting. How great would it be score in November? Rare, but we know it does happen. Fingers and toes crossed...and whatever else I can cross? Hmmmm....going into deep thunder think mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 All the guidance is swinging some upper energy through the trough behind the Tuesday system. It's worth keeping an eye on. Obviously everything this time of year is a long shot. Still I'm loving seeing the repetitive idea of systems up the east coast everytime we get a trough. Couldn’t agree more...they won’t all be frozen but I think we will get our fill of tracking this winter. Can’t wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Reason EURO shows a wintry event is because it leaves energy behind. The main front clears, gives us our cold shot, and HP builds in. Then the 2nd low comes up the coast....Not saying it won’t happen, but could be the old slow energy bias the euro has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Even at day 14 we're cold, with all that cold up in Canada and +PNA tendency. The Euro is cold throughout too. https://imgur.com/a/iO3opTC Usually when you have such a cold anomaly in the North Atlantic, we will blowtorch a month later. We'll see with the Nino. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html The pattern keeps reminding me of 95-96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Based on what I hear about the euro weeklies, the pattern evolves as we expect through the first week or two of December and then craps the bed the last two weeks. But whatever, very low skill at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Based on what I hear about the euro weeklies, the pattern evolves as we expect through the first week or two of December and then craps the bed the last two weeks. But whatever, very low skill at that range. Taken at face value, not a great look for Dec overall. It has an ambiguous look for the most part to me. On to the next edition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Based on what I hear about the euro weeklies, the pattern evolves as we expect through the first week or two of December and then craps the bed the last two weeks. But whatever, very low skill at that range. Muted and blah....no real strong signal of anything after early Dec. Not a disaster but not what I was hoping to see for a strong Dec showing. On a positive note...they will run again on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Muted and blah....no real strong signal of anything after early Dec. Not a disaster but not what I was hoping to see for a strong Dec showing. On a positive note...they will run again on Monday. Blah, is right ......... not what I expected, but goes along with many mets that feel December is warm. Oh well . There are times when the weeklies crap the bed too Euro is not perfect by far , weeklies have had intervals of great verification scores and then, not so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 9 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Exactly. Let things develop through the next 30 days so around the 10th we could have a legit chance at a snow event. Or the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 12 hours ago, poolz1 said: An odd evolution that’s bound to change but the euro has a wintry system D7/8 00z Euro run took our snow away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 4 hours ago, yoda said: 00z Euro run took our snow away 00z Icon and CMC have a similar scenario with a followup storm....its a long shot but something to keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 12 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Based on what I hear about the euro weeklies, the pattern evolves as we expect through the first week or two of December and then craps the bed the last two weeks. But whatever, very low skill at that range. Interesting model uncertainy has been occurring - and even the Euro struggling , as seen here : Nothing set in stone yet. So based on the weeklies were off the latest Euro can easily change on this Monday. The Scand feature is highly interesting and a close fit to 2014, player too maybe in a mid winter SSW with the current phase change of the QBO ad other factors. The SSW is speculation, but the model changes are real . Bluewave commented a couple weeks ago maybe model swings are due to the battling of Nina and Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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